Market Bias Forecast

June 2007

Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc

All rights reserved.

What is a Market Bias Forecast?

• In researching social instability, A New Story Foundation has developed a highly successful method for forecasting market movement in several key commodities and equity indices.

• Market Bias is the composite outlook of a quantified estimate of bullish and bearish investors’ perspectives.

June 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

Market Bias

• Using a symbol set to represent the collective mood of bullish traders, a story is compiled for the market movement from that perspective.

• Strength of change is estimated for the entire month and for each time segment.

• The procedure is then repeated for the bearish perspective.

• Strength numbers for both bulls and bears are averaged. A price chart / price range is derived from these composite numbers.

June 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

June 2007 – Summary

• Theme: The dawning of a realization that this year (this summer) is not like the last few.

• A confusing month which starts out with the markets (Crude, Dow, U.S. Dollar Index) heading strongly one way, only to turn around the second half of the month.

• It may be another month before trends become clear.

June 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

Crude Oil

• Bullish perspective for June:“Crude price is going up… because it

can.” • Bearish perspective for June:

“Excessive short covering ahead.” • Overall strength of change is mildly bullish:

+2 (out of 5)

June 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

Crude Oil - price

• Crude breaks into a new range this month; this chart illustrates the up break.

• Looking very negative going into July.

June 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

% Price Change, Cumulative - June 2007

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

4 11 18 25 July…

Crude Oil

Crude Oil - range

August contract expected low 63.50, high 71, close 70 for a net gain of 5% for the month.

August Crude Oil Range - June 2007

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

Dow Index Futures

• Bullish perspective for June:“Any correction is a good buying

opportunity.” • Bearish perspective for June:

“The market stubbornly refuses to go/stay down.”

• Overall strength of change is mildly

bullish: +1 (out of 5).

June 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

Dow Futures - price

• Just when you think the market is turning down, it goes back up again.

• Look for a top in July.

June 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

% Price Change, Cumulative - June 2007

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4 11 18 25 July…

Dow Index Futures

Stock Market Cycles Status

• Alternate, independent method shows observed cycles in the S&P indicating trend turn not before end of June / beginning of July.

• This supports the Dow investor bias forecast for June.

June 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

S&P Cycles June 2007

-1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

6/4 6/11 6/18 6/25

1 Month 75 Day

Dow Futures - range

Current contract expected low 13250, high 13720, close 13650 ending close to unchanged for the month.

Dow Futures Range - June 2007

13200

13300

13400

13500

13600

13700

13800

U.S. Dollar Index

• Bullish perspective for June:“Is the bull getting tired already?”

• Bearish perspective for June:“This correction has got to be over

soon.”

• Overall strength of change is slightly bullish: +1 (out of 5)

June 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

Dollar Index - price

• The dollar goes as high as it can, but is not in this for the long term.

• July looks extremely negative for the dollar.

June 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

% Price Change, Cumulative - June 2007

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

4 11 18 25 July…

U.S. Dollar Index

Dollar Index - range

Current contract expected low 82.1, high 82.9, close 82.6 with very little net change for the month.

Dollar Index Range - June 2007

82.00

82.10

82.20

82.30

82.40

82.50

82.60

82.70

82.80

82.90

83.00

June 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

Market Bias Summary - volatility

This composite shows a big change in direction between the 2nd week and the rest of the month.

Rate of Price Change - June 2007

-1.0-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.8

4-8 11-15 18-22 25-29 Next Month

Crude Oil Dollar Stocks

Disclaimer

The reliability of the forecasts corresponds with our current ability to reliably ascertain and score the collective mood of bullish and bearish investors for each time period under review.

A New Story Foundation is not a brokerage firm nor are we professional investment advisors. Please consult the appropriate person/firm for specific investment advice.

More information about our research can be found on our website at http://www.anewstory.org.

Thanks for your interest!