From Technologies to Markets
© 2019
Advanced Packaging Trends
in this Era of Digital New Age
Market Briefing
23-April-2019
Santosh KUMAR
Director & Principal Analyst | [email protected]
Favier SHOO
Technology & Market Analyst | [email protected]
2
APU
DRAM
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
MARKET-APPLICATION ROADMAP DRIVEN BY MEGA TRENDS
IO Counts
10000
100
1000
2x2 10x10 20x20 50x50 >>50x50
Package Size (mm)
GPU, CPU
CPU +
Memories
Codec
WiFi
MEMS
Display
Drivers
BB
PMIC
RF
APU
DRAM
(X)PU / FPGA +
Memories (HBM)
Large
Logics/Memories
2019 - 2030 : MEGA TRENDS for Digital New Age≤ 2018 : Technology Benchmark
COMPUTING
MOBILE
WIRELESS
IO Counts
10000
100
1000
2x2 10x10 20x20 50x50 >>50x50
Package Size (mm)
GPU, CPU
CPU +
Memories
Codec
WiFi
MEMS
Display
Drivers
BB
PMIC
RF
(X)PU / FPGA +
Memories (HBM)
Large
Logics/Memories
5G
IoT
Big Data
Al, Smart
COMPUTING
MOBILE
Only major trends/markets are considered
WIRELESS
32019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
DIGITAL NEW AGE: NEW TRENDS
2030
Imaging
1995 20062000 2010 2014 2017
TRENDS
1990 2020
Audio
Smartwatchwith AI
Smartphone
Virtualassistant
Next-genassistant
Smartphone with AI
Olfactometry
Smelling AI
2040
Motion sensing
Holographic interaction
Augmented human
Robot home
Disruptive Technology
Hyper
Data Center
Driver-less
Mobile
HD Voice
Processing
PC Mobile Smart Robotics Human Augmentation
EDGECLOUD SPECIALIZATION
42019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP: FROM NANO-SCALE TO MICRO-SCALE..
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Assumed
Moore’s Law
Die to Substrate
Bump Pitch (μm)
RDL L/S (μm)
Solder Ball Pitch
(μm)
22nm 14nm 10nm 7nm
28nm 14nm 10nm 7nm 5nm 3nm
20nm 16nm 10nm 7nm 5nm 3nm
20nm 14nm (licensed) Stopped
Adva
nce
d N
odes*
Adva
nce
d P
ackag
ing
16/14nm 10nm 7nm 5nm 3nm
200 to 150 μm 150 to 80 μm 60 to 40 μm <40 μm
15/15 to 9/9 μm 10/10 to 8/8 μm 8/8 to 5/5 μm < 2/2 μm
400/350 μm 300 μm
6nm
Average trends of the various industry players
Non-exhaustive list of players listed
52019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
PACKAGING MARKET GROWTH
2014 2023
$53 B
$84 B
Global Packaging
Conventional Packaging
Advanced Packaging
6
258
105
2066
530
90
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
CONSUMER MARKET OVERVIEW: TOTAL UNITS IN 2018
MOBILE
68%
COMPUTING
9%
WEARABLES
3%
ENTERTAINMENT
17%
IoT
3%
3 Billion Units
72019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
APPLICATION PROCESSOR ENGINE (APE) - TRENDS IN SMARTPHONES
600
Processor packaging thickness*
2015 2016 2017 2018
300
200
400
500
MCeP
inFO-PoP
MCePMCeP
inFO-PoP
FCCSP FCCSPFCCSP
FC CSP
≥2019
inFO-PoP
ePLP-PoP
?
Fan-Out Fan-Out? Fan-Out?
8
FAN-OUT APPLICATIONS
Orange: Devices that can be found in
FOWLP packages today
Green: Devices that could be found
in the future in FOWLPGrey: Devices that will likely remain on WLCSP or
flip-chip package or move to 3DIC or Embedded
die
Apple iPhone 8 and X (2017)
A11 APE – InFO package (TSMC)
Samsung Galaxy S7 (2016)Qualcomm Audio Codec
WCD9335 – eWLB package by
Amkor Portugal (Nanium) or JCET
(STATS ChipPAC)
Bosch MRR1Plus Radar (2015)Infineon RASIC™ (77GHz RADAR System
IC Chipset) – eWLB Package
BK Ultrasound Sonic Window (2015)Multichip Module – eWLB Package Amkor Portugal
(Nanium)
Continental ARS400 Radar (2015)NXP MR2001 (77GHz multichannel
RADAR) – RCP Package
Applications out of mobile market
NXP SCM-iMX6Q (2017)APE, PMIC and Flash memory – Fan-Out PoP
(Nepes)
Apple iPhone 7 (2016)
A10 APE – InFO package (TSMC)
Apple iPhone XS and XR (2018)
A12 APE – InFO package (TSMC)
Samsung Exynos 9110 ePLP (2018)APE, PMIC– FOPLP (SEMCO)
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
92019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
FAN-OUT PACKAGING EVOLUTION
A long and volatile journey yet history is still in the making…
≤2007
Chip-First
Face-Up
Fan-Out
Chip-First
Face-Down
Fan-Out
eWLB creation
RCP creation
RCP licensing and first volume
eWLB licensing and first volume
2010 2012 20152013 20142008 2009 20162011
Early Fan-Out Activities(long history, high volume)
Recent Fan-Out InflectionCreation of many new technology and IP
RDL-First R&D
InFO creation
2017
InFO first volume
M-Series creation
Chip-Last
Fan-Out
ePLP firstvolume
2018
HD
FOWLP
made
possible
2019 2020
HD
FOPLP
Possible Scenario
FOWLP
vsFOPLP
1 new player in HD FOCost Pressure in Core FO
vs
vs
HD FO
Core FO
FOPLP
Milestone
Achieved
102019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
FAN-OUT MARKET: BUSINESS MODEL EVOLUTION
100%
$244 M*
2015
OSAT only
65%
35%
$847 M*
2017
Foundry Impact
2019
IDM Entry
10%
71%
19%
$3,864 M*
2024
Foundry vs IDM
CAGR +51%
CAGR +23%
CAGR +19%
6%
65%
28%
$1,584 M*
*Total Market Value based on revenue
OSAT Foundry IDM
12
LTE-A
Pro
CELLULAR TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT
From 2G to 5G: Less than a 30 year journey
1992 1997 2001 2007 2010 2013 2018 2020
GSM GPRS EDGE
CDMA CDMA2000 1xRTTCDMA2000
1xEV-DO
WCDMA
TD-SCDMA
TD-CDMA
EV-DO Rev
A/B/C
HSPA HSPA+
TD-HSPA
TDD-LTE
FDD-LTE
TDD-
LTE-
Advanced
FDD-
LTE-
Advanced
5G sub-6GHz 5G mmWave
2G 2.5G 2.75G/Pre-3G 3G 3.5G 3.9G/Pre-4G 4G Pre-5G 5G4.5G
Other standards from IEEE family
including WiMAX and iBurst
It takes around 10 years between two cellular generations, including a long transition phase with intermediate technologies.
Ideal conditions, theoretically possible Deployment in reality, upper limit observed
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 1313
20252024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
Fre
quency
(GH
z)
APPLICATION MAPPING
5G use cases extend far beyond the mobile phone, from IoT to autonomous vehicles, creating new challenges for the network in terms of data rate and latency agility.
4K video streaming
New Gaming Content
Wireless VR
AR
Port Management
Medical Robot
Industrial Automation
Smart City
Remote Surveillance
360° Video Telepresence
Drone Delivery
Autonomous Vehicle
Agriculture
Real-time Translation
Advanced AI assistant
Connected
Wearable
Cloud Computing
Connected Home
Smart Grid
Asset Tracking
Shared Utilities
Robotic Service
142019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
RF FRONT-END COMPONENTS
Filters/ Duplexers PA LNA Switches RF transceiver Antenna Passives
Cellular
PAMiD X X X X X
PAD X X X
RxDM X X X X
ASM X X
Antennaplexers
(multiplexer) X X
LMM (Low noise amplifier -
multiplexer module)X X
MMMB PA (Multi-Mode,
Multi-Band Power Amplifier)X X
mmWave FEM X X X
ConnectivityWiFi FEM X X X X
WiGiG FEM X X X
RFFE is a sophisticated set of technologies and components situated between the modem and the antenna, and is
responsible for physically transmitting and receiving information over the air.
15152019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
INSIDE RF SIP
• SiP reach high level of integration and accommodate heterogeneous technology from III-V compound semiconductor to Silicon ICs through specialty MEM’s acoustic resonator
AFEM-8072
Avago MHB PAMiD
MB BAW filtersHB BAW filters
Switches
PAs
passives
LNA
SAW filters LNASwitches
SKY78140
Skyworks RxDM
16162019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
RF CONTENT EVOLUTION IN MOBILE PHONE
In every cellular generation evolution leads to new technology and additional RF content.
4x4 MIMO
Dual connectivity
Diversity
Wi-Fi 2x2 MIMO
Carrier Aggregation
High band
Carrier Aggregation
Ultra high band
RF
co
nte
nt –
rela
tive
scale
17172019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
MOBILE BROADBAND RF FRONT-END EVOLUTION
RF Front-End continues to evolve. First step is merging high and mid bands, densification and continuous support for carrier aggregation. New Radio bands to be integrated into ultra high band module with dual connectivity.
Finally, mmWave should come on top of that beyond 2020.
HB module
MB module
LB module
UHB module
HB+MB module
LB module
UHB module
HB+MB module
LB module
2017 2018 2019
NR band dual
connectivity
600 MHz inclusion
More CA
Band refarming
Densification
> 2020
UHB module
HB+MB module
LB module
mmWave module
Band refarming
mmWave module
Sam
e t
ech
nolo
gy
More
com
ple
xity
More
densi
fica
tion
Dis
ruption
18
MOBILE RF FEM PACKAGE TRENDLe
vel o
f in
tegr
ation
Freq
uen
cy b
ands
Discrete PA pkg. Single-side SiP
Antenna in/on package
2G (GSM) 3G(WCDMA) 4G (LTE) 5G sub 6GHz
Antenna outside phone body
10
15
20
25
30
35
No FEM,
Discrete PA
Usually 1 FEM (Tx,Rx)
Discrete PA still main
3-5 FEM
PA + FEM
integrationDis
crete
pkg
Hig
hly
inte
grat
ed S
iP
5G mmWave
20202019
Antenna “on phone case” Antenna on flex PCB
2008 2013
Double-side SiP
5-7 FEM
PA + FEM integration7-9 FEM
PA + Antenna + RFIC+
FEM+ integration
Enhanced double-side SiP
PA + Antenna + RFIC+
FEM + Modem
integration
2022 &
beyond
Future
direction ??
Need disruptive innovation
in packaging
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
192019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
TECHNOLOGY TOOLBOX FOR RF SiP FOR 5G MOBILE
Packaging innovations needed at
various levels
Double side BGA assembly
Double side mold
Embedded active & passives
Conformal & compartmental
shielding
Thin substrate, fine L/S
Miniaturized passive
components
Antenna in package
integration
Low loss materials
Compression Molding
High accuracy , high speed pick
& place
20
ANTENNA IN PACKAGE (AIP) SOLUTIONS
Various solutions are proposed for integrating
antenna element with RF
components for 5G mobile
communication
AiP
Flip chip
Fan-out
PoP type Source: JECT/ STATSChipPAC
Source: TSMC
Source: ASE
Integrate Patch antenna array & Yagi-Uda
antennas in a package.
• Low Dk/Df materials for better signal
integrity.
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
21
ASSEMBLY / PACKAGING MARKET FOR RF SiP FOR MOBILE
Assembly of various RF
components in SiPs basically consists of 2 processes: wafer level
assembly & SiP level assembly
Assembly of RF components
Wafer level
SiP level
Cap wafer
bondingTSV
RDL/
UBMBumping Dicing
SMT Wire bond Molding Shielding BGA/LGA
Wafer
grinding
Wafer
dicingInspection
Components available
as SMT components in
SiP assembly / Flip-chip
Components available as
bare dies (in wafer form)
in SiP assembly / wire-
bond process
Test
Included in
market forecast
Included in
market forecast
BAW filters SAW filters Filters / Switches / IPDs
Prior to SiP
assembly
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
22
TOTAL ASSEMBLY/PACKAGING MARKET FORECAST FOR RF SiP IN MOBILE
The share of WLP for RF components
assembly prior to SiP assembly will decrease from 9% in
2017 to 8% in 2023
CAGR2017-2020 ~11%
WLP
8%
SiP
92%
2023
($5.3B)
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
232019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
RF FEM MARKET FORECAST
By share of various RF FEMs SiP (in $M)
PAMiD market share by
revenue will increase from
23% in 2018 to 39% in 2023.
PAMiD
PAM
Rx DM
ASM (switchplexer)
antennaplexers
(multiplexer)
LMM
MMMB PA
mmW FEM
WiFi FEM
WiGig FEM
2023
($4.9B)
PAMiD
PAM
Rx DM
ASM
(switchplexer)
antennaplexers
(multiplexer)
LMM
MMMB PA
WiFi FEM WiGig FEM
2018
( $3.07B)
Automotive Packaging Trend
25
HOW SIGNIFICANT IS THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY?
Two industries, both controlled by giant companies with ~$250B in revenue
$1.2T
≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ $250B
$2.3T
Automotive electronics
$142B
x2
$3.7BAutomotive packaging
26
THE TWO CURRENT BIG TRENDS FOR VEHICLES
Impact of electrification should be limited in the next 5 years but, at long term, the story is different. Automation guides innovation.
• ~1 - 2Mu in 2022
• ~5Mu in 2027 (Level 3*)
Automation
• ~14Mu in 2022
• ~25 - 30Mu in 2027
Electrification**
Thermal vehicles
94Mu
vehicles
105Mu
vehicles
* Level 3 = hands-off / ** Includes hybrids2017 2027
EV/HEV/hybrids
Automated vehicles sold
Non-thermal vehicles sold
A 3rd trend will appear
soon together with the
other two: More
connectivity
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
27
MORE AUTONOMY
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050
Car
sal
es
(Munits)
Potential evolution of autonomous car sales by level of automation
Vehicle Level 0 Vehicle Level 1 Vehicle Level 2 Vehicle Level 3 Vehicle Level 4 Vehicle Level 5 Vehicle On Demand
02 3
54
By 2045, more than 70% of all vehicles sold will integrate autonomous capabilities!
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
28
AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES - THE DISRUPTION CASE
Two distinctive paths for autonomous vehicle
Both strategies end up at the same place –Autonomous driving
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5
Where?
Autonomous
driving
Robotic
vehicle
ADAS vehicle
Some players may want
to change side
How?
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
29
MAIN TREND 3: CONNECTIVITY
Connecting Internally
• For infotainment onboard:
• Wifi, streaming, etc…
• In-cabin sensors
• Sensor connection of the vehicle
Source: Bosch
Source: Bosch
Connecting Externally
• Connecting to other vehicles for safety and autonomous driving
• Connecting to external facilities
• Development aligned with 5G trend
• Together with more autonomy and 5G future deployment, a 3rd main trend will appear: More connectivity in the car
• Connecting the car both internally and externally will become more and more important
• Numerous electronics-based applications will develop
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
30
Group of
devices
Power conversion
ADAS sensors
MEMS & sensors
LightingProcessing & Storage
Connectivity Modules / Telematics
Display
MICROELECTRONICS IN AUTOMOTIVE
Different electronics devices familyMOSFET, IGBTs, DC-
DC convertor, GaN
HEMT etc.
RADAR, LiDAR, CIS,
Infrared Imager.
Accelerometers
Gyroscope
Microphones
Pressure sensor
Micro bolometer
Micromirror IMUs
Magnetometer Ultrasonic
Humidity sensor
Front light, Rear light,
Interior lighting, etc
CPU/GPU, Memory,
ECU, MCUs
Antenna, WiFi,
Switch, GPS,
FEM
Screen, ToF
sensor
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
31
GENERAL TRENDS IN AUTOMOTIVE PACKAGING
Reliability
Power
Power density
Complexity of Integration
Data processing
Years
Requirements
Cost
Defects
Foot Print
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
32
ADAS COMPUTING HARDWARE TREND
Ultrasonic
Radar
Forward Camera
Surround Camera
Driver Camera
LiDAR
Fusion
Fusion
Functionalities
Level 1
ACC: Automatic Cruise Control
AEB: Advanced Emergency Braking
CTA: Cross Traffic Alert
TJA: Traffic Jam Assist
PA: Park Assist
LKA: Lane Keeping Assist
DM: Driver Monitoring
HP: Highway Pilot
AP: Auto Pilot
ACC Level 2
PALKA
ACC
TJA
Level 3
PALKA
ACC
TJA
AEB DM TJA
Level 4
PALKA
ACC
TJA
AEB DM TJA
HPLevel 5
PALKA
ACC
TJA
AEB DM TJA
AP
Fusion
Fusion
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
332019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
TREND FOR HARDWARE FOR INFOTAINMENT
From MCU to fusion platform
Utilization of the existing resources provided by the computing platform used for safety and autonomy
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5
Intelligence
ADAS level
Single SoC
Fusion platform
for both
Multi chips (MCUs)
• Instead of having multiple processing die for each infotainment application, the goal now is to merge all thecomputing on a SoC. For upper ADAS level 3 to 5 infotainment system might take advantage of the GPU build in forADAS. Infotainment that require deep learning processing will come with this higher ADAS level cars. Two scenarioscould be possible:
?
Fusion
platform for
ADASOne SoC for
infotainment
+
342019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
EXAMPLE OF ADAS COMPUTING HARDWARE
Fusion Platform – NVidia
Drive PX XavierFusion Platform –
Renesas R-CAR H3
FPGA – Xilinx ZYNQVP – Intel Mobileye
EyeQ5
352019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019
EXAMPLE OF SoC PLATFORMS FOR INFOTAINMENT USING AI
Product ApplicationComputingCompany
R-Car H3
Snapdragon 820
Automotive Platform
Intel® GO™ Platform
for In-Vehicle Experiences
Infotainment using AI
Infotainment using AI
Infotainment using AI
Infotainment using AIArm-based multi-core platform
Cortex-A5/ Cortex-M4/Cortex-MO+ MAC57D5xx MCU family
Arm® Cortex®-A57 Cortex®-A53
Quad
Arm® Cortex®-R7 Dual lockstep
Custom 64-bit Kryo quad-core SoC
14nm FinFET
-
36
CONCLUSION
• Advanced Packaging is viewed as the key solution to address the functional challenge and bridge the scale-gapbetween die and to board.
• Currently, key players from different business models have Fan-Out packaging solutions with a strong emphasison cost and performance trade-off between Panel-level vs Wafer-level processing.
• The RF FEM SiP assembly market was $2.5B & $3.0B in 2017 & 2018 respectively and will have a CAGR of 11%to reach $4.9B in 2023.
• 5G sub 6GHz require incremental innovation in packaging with small BOM increase while mmWave requiredisruptive innovation. Antenna technology and placement is one of the most critical challenges for 5Gsemiconductor systems.
• Automotive key trend: electrification, automation, infotainment. Hardware requirements for computing forADAS, infotainment will drive adoption of advanced packaging in automotive
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019