Sensex opened the week at 38132, made a high of 38564, low of 37952 and closed the week at 38164. Thus it closed the week with a gain of 140 points. At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 11473, made a high of 11572, low of 11412 and closed the week at 11456. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a gain of 30 points.
Options data for 20th March2019 weekly expiry series maximum Call open interest (OI) of 38.58 contracts was seen at the 11600 strike price, followed by the 11500 strike price (with 29.25lakh contracts) and 11700 (with 22.80 lakh contracts). Maximum Put open interest of 38.22 lakh contracts at the strike price of 11000 followed by strike price 11200 (with 26.75 Lakh contracts) and11400 (with34.63 lakh contracts). Hence, NIFTY range would be 11000 to 11600 while other resistance is 11700.
NIFTY PE-28.08, VIX is at 16.2750, if it sustains above 17, it would be indicating possibility of downside. VIX if moved below 15 there may be continuation of bulls rally. Presently market is expected to trade range bound.
PCR is now at 1.60 came down from 1.75; PCR indicates market still in slightly over bought zone with limited upside possibility. Below 1.20 it will be over sold. Above 1.70 it is considered as over bought zone.
FIIs bought more than Rs 43,000 crore worth of shares including nearly Rs 28,000 crore of buying in March itself and helped the market when DIIs turned net sellers partly due to year-end redemption pressure. Domestic institutional investors have been net sellers in February-March after pumping in big chunk of money for last many quarters, but that does not mean they are bearish on the market
Usdinr (69.0075) has made a dragon fly doji after making low 68.4075. Oscillators in daily chart turned positive after moving in over sold region. Also, there is some positive divergence in some of the oscillators. Sustaining above 69.22 would indicate the possibility of a bounce up to 70 or 70.30. Sustaining above the breakdown neckline 70.30 seems difficult but is sustained next resistance is at 71 and 71.35 near 50 SMA and 50 weeks moving average respectively. Major trend seems down but the possibility of a bounce could not be ignored. Below 68.40 next supports seems at 68 and 67.40.
Brent Crude (67.03) after an inverse head and shoulder breakout rallied but failed to cross 68 in multiple attempts. 50 SMA and 100 SMA are around 63 and neckline support is at 62. The Brent Crude seems in a range 62 to 68. Major resistance is 200 SMA at 70. Major sell off might be seen only after a decisive close below 62. Any upside rally above 68 might be resisted around70. Oscillators in daily chart are weak while in weekly chart there is a shooting star type candle and a negative confirmation would cause weakness
India's external debt data for December quarter will be released on March 28. External debt declined to $510.4 billion at September-end. Government budget value and infrastructure output for February, and current account for Q4CY18 will be announced on March 29. On the same day, foreign exchange reserves for week ended March 22, and deposit and bank loan growth for the fortnight ended March 15 will be released.
Outlook: Nifty is expected to trade initially in the range 11200 to 11520 in the coming week. Resistance11575 Support 11000.
Nifty (11457) has rallied sharply in the last four weeks and moved in highly over bought region.
A shooting star type doji in weekly chart outside of the Bollinger band suggests the possibility of profit booking. Bearish engulfing candle in daily chart also indicates the bearish reversal possibilities.
Oscillators in daily chart turned negative after a long rally. Fibonacci retracement levels of the recent rise are at 11200 and 10960. The initial range for the weeks seems at 11200 to 11520 while major resistance is at 11575.
Sustaining above this level would only indicate a rally towards 11660 and 11751. Medium term trend decider support 50 weeks moving average is at 10870.
Nifty bank (29583)– NIFTY BANK’s continuous five weeks rally has a shooting star type candle at the top outside the billinger band. It is trading in highly over bought zone in weekly as well as daily chart.
The intitial range of the index seems to be 29750 to 29300.
Fibonacci retracement levels of the recent rise are at 28700 and 27900. Immediate support at 29200-300 should be watched closely for further downside or reversal. Major resistance is now at 29000 and any closing above this level would indicate rally towards 29500.
At present, 50 SMA is at 27553, 100 SMA is at 27000 and 200 SMA is at 26813. Bull traders are suggested to stay cautious of at higher levels.
Bank Nifty Chart (Weekly): 29583
High 30008
Low 29361
Resistance Levels
- R1 30000
- R2 30100
- R3 30300
- R4 30500
Support Levels
- S1 29400
- S2 29200
- S3 29000
- S3 28700
NIFTY Midcap (17741)
NIFTY Midcap index (17741) had a red candle after 4 weeks continuous rally. It faced resistance around the
previous peak around 18100 which is also 50 weeks moving average.
A decisive breakout above 18100 would indicate further rally towards 18500-18600. The index is showing an
inability to sustain above 200 SMA around 17850.
Below 17650 it may face more weakness and crate probability of moving towards 17100-17300 near SMA and
100 SMA respectively.
Oscillators in daily chart are over bought and negative.
HINDALCO (209.10) has an inverse HNS type pattern. Neckline is around 200-203. Supports are 197 and 193. The upside capacity of the pattern seems to be 225-226. .
HINDPETRO (268.40)
HINDPETRO has a very strong breakout in weekly chart. It is good to accumulate the stock around 240-250 with sl 210 for long term target 330
TECHM has prepared a HNS type pattern and the neckline is at 775. The capacity of the pattern after breakdown would be 740-720. Resistance seems at 800 and 808. JUBILANT FOOD (1437)
JUBILANT FOOD has a confirmation to two hammers and above 1438 it may catch momentum to test 1466-1488. Keep sl 1422.
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