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28. February 2006 1Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind PowerJens Pedersen
Peter Børre Eriksen
Antje Orths
ENERGINET.DK
28. February 2006 2Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
Outline
Introduction: Present Danish Situation
Investigations: Implementing more Windpower
Additional Costs …?
Balancing the System …?
Future Plans
28. February 2006 3Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
28. February 2006 4Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
Power Balance 2004
720 MW DC
1200/800 MWAC
1000 MW DC
Sverige
600 MW DC
1700/1300 MW AC
60 kV
Consumption 1200 - 3650 MW
Central power plants (11) 3500 MW
Local CHP units (~ 600) 1600 MW
Wind turbines (~ 4000) 2400 MW
Consumption 800 - 2700 MW
Central power plants 4000 MW
Local CHP units 600 MW
Wind turbines 750 MW
Two synchronous areas:
West:
East:
4000 MW
1350 MW
28. February 2006 5Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
MW9,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
CentralLocal CHP Wind Consumption
Power Balance (Western Denmark)
28. February 2006 6Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
Energy Balance 2004
28. February 2006 7Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
Development of Energy Balance Western Denmark
Main Figures
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
TW
h
Consumption Production CHP Wind Exchange
Main Figures
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
TW
h
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Consumption Production CHP
Wind Exchange Wind %
[%]
28. February 2006 8Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
Additional System Costs …?
Balancing the System…?
Main Questions
28. February 2006 9Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
Additional System Costs - Simulation of Ficitious Western Danish Power System -
Assumptions:
Isolated Power System (CHP and International Connections disregarded)
Production Mix adjusted depending on Amount of Wind Power (0% … 100%) with:
Same Security of Supply
Coal Fired Base Load Units (Utilisation Time >2000 h)
Natural Gas Fired Peak Load Units (Utilisation Time <2000 h)
Forced and Scheduled Outages included
5%, 30 years annuity=0,0651
CO2 Emission 6.7 €/ton
28. February 2006 10Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
Production Mix at Different Wind Power Levels
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Energy from wind power in per cent of annual demand
MW
Wind Power
Base Load Units
Peak Load Units
Peak Demand
28. February 2006 11Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
Utilisation Time for Base- and Peak Load Units
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Hou
rs
MW
0%
50%100%
28. February 2006 12Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
How much Wind Power can be sold?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%Share of wind power (%)
TWh/year
Production Sold Surplus
Demand Side
of the
Residual
Market
(~8 TWh)
28. February 2006 13Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
13,14
26,325,49
12,76
6,58
0
0,811,27
1,51
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1 2 3
%
TW
h
Wind Power Base Unit Peak Unit
0 50 100
26,3
Energy Production, Consumption and Overflow
0 0,91 8,13
Production
Side of the
Residual
Market
28. February 2006 14Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
Cost related to Residual Production
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Share of wind power (%)
Mio
EUR
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100EUR/MWh
Total costs
Extra costs in case of windpower production
Unit costs44 -> 80
EUR/MWh
266 Mio EUR
1157 -> 624
Mio EUR
28. February 2006 15Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
Additional Costs related to Residual Demand … distributed on Wind Power
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%Energy from wind power in per cent of annual demand
EUR/utilised MWhwind power
Overflow worth 0 EUR/MWh
Overflow worth 13.3 EUR/MWh
28. February 2006 16Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
Lessons learned (1/2)
The specific costs of the thermal power plants increase with increasing share of wind power
Large wind power penetration leads to additional costs of 6-13 €/MWh per utilised MWh wind power
Demand for peak load units increases: innovative approach needed
New demand types are needed to utilise the power overflow
Not considered
ancillary services including regulating power
transmission capacity
stability aspects
district heating which will increase the overflow
wind power installation cost
28. February 2006 17Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
Additional System Costs …?
Balancing the System…?
Main Questions
28. February 2006 18Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
Keeping the system in balance
Sources for imbalance
Load Generation
Emergency plan
Handles
AGC NOIS a.c. tie lines
28. February 2006 19Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
The Challenge of Wind Power Forecasting
“Fresh breeze”means somewhere
between 200 and 1 600 MW
A deviation of just ±1 m/s may have an impact of ± 320 MW (With a 2 374 MW installed base).
28. February 2006 20Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
Obligation of Providing Regulation Reserve, Western Denmark
Primary Regulation Reserve: + 30 MW
Automatic Regulation Reserve: + 140 MW
Manual Regulation Reserve:
Upward Regulation: up to 670 MW
Downward Regulation 200 MW
Regulating power bids from DK, N, S and D are available in the Nordic real time market
Local scale CHP- units (787 MW) have access to the market (from 2005.01.01)
~ 60 Mio € / a
28. February 2006 21Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
Regulating Power
Daily input for Nord Pool day-ahead-planning to be submitted at noon (difference between three months` forecast and day-ahead forecast)
The TSO must provide regulating power for deviations between day-ahead-plans and real-time conditions in real-time-market
Main reasons for deviations: Errors in wind power forecasts (…storm)
deviations from market players`s plans
outages
Sources: Domestic spinning reserves
purchase with Sweden and Norway
Difficulty: – not stochastically independent
28. February 2006 22Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
Regulating Power and Prices in the Real-time Market in Denmark West, December 2005
Regulating power and prices in the real-time market in Denmark WestDecember 2005
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
700
01.12 04.12 07.12 10.12 13.12 16.12 19.12 22.12 25.12 28.12 31.12
-140
-100
-60
-20
20
60
100
140
Activated regulating power, MWh/hAddition to price - upward regulation, EUR/MWh Deductions from the price - downward regulation, EUR/MWh
Upward regulation
Downward regulation
EUR/MWhMWh/h © Energinet.dk
upward regulation 53 GWh; av. price 10,86 EUR/MWh
downward regulation 55 GWh; av. deduct. price -9,73 EUR/MWh
28. February 2006 23Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
Computed power imbalance for Horns Reef A+B
28. February 2006 24Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
Lessons Learned (2/2)
Various challenges concerning System Balance:
Wind Forecasts have to be improved
More Domestic Regulation Reserves have to be activated
Danish Interconnection will reduce Reserve Costs
Reduction of Positive Power Gradients from Wind Farms will
help Keeping the Schedules
28. February 2006 25Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
Future Plans
Activation of Domestic Regulation Capacity
(Local CHP<10MW acting on price signals)
Promotion of Demand Response
Implementing Autonomy by Redesign of the System
Architecture (Direct Communication with local Generation)
Add more Transmission Capacity
Take Part in ETSO / UCTE wind study
28. February 2006 26Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
Horns Rev
Thank you !
www.energinet.dk
28. February 2006 27Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
Production capacities / voltage level (Western DK, 01.01.2005)
400 kV (TSO)
International
1,488 MW 4 Primary Power Stations
150 kV (Transmission Company) 1,914 MW 5 Primary Power Stations 160 MW 80 Wind Turbines
60 kV 589 MW 16 Local Plants (18 Gen)
41 MW 34 Wind Turbines
10-20 kV (Distribution Undertaking)
Low Voltage
1,093 MW 543 Local Plants (734 Gen)
2,179 MW 4,047 Wind Turbines 2 MW 1,000 PV units
International
International
MW units
7,466 MW
28. February 2006 28Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
Priority production Commercial production
Demand - peak load
Demand - off-peak load
Price
MWh
Supply
Pp
Po
Priority local CHP andwind production
Wind Commercialproduction
Demand - peak load
Demand - off-peak load
Price
MWh
Supply
Localproduction
Pp
Po
Local CHP and wind productionintegrated into the electricity market
Com.prod.
Present and Future Handling of DG within Denmark
=> smaller difference between peak-load and low load prices
increase of price stability
28. February 2006 29Market Impacts of Large-Scale System Integration of Wind Power - EWEC 2006, Athens
Demand and Supply Curve for Different Elasticity Coefficients due to Grade of Demand Response
Peak demandLimited DR
€/MWh
Supply
MWh
Peak demandHigh DR
Off-peak demandLimited DR