Market Outlook 17th May 2012

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 17th May 2012

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Market OutlookMay 17, 2012

www.angelbroking.com

Dealers Diary

The domestic markets are expected to open in green tracking positive opening in

Asian markets. Asian markets fell sharply yesterday, as news that Greece will hold

a second election in June increased uncertainty over the future of the euro region.

U.S markets again declined yesterday as worries prevailed about political situationin Greece, which is headed for a new round of elections after lawmakers failed to

form a coalition government. Investors fear that a Greek exit from the eurozone, a

strong position against austerity measures and a disorderly debt default could lead

to fatal consequences and make sovereign debt problems worse. Meanwhile,

upbeat U.S. economic data helped to limit the downside for the markets as a

report showed that industrial production unexpectedly increased by 1.1% in April.

Meanwhile, Indian markets tumbled on Wednesday weighed down by capital

outflow worries after the rupee tumbled to hit a record low against the dollar,

succumbing to growing risk aversion due to the euro zone crisis and amid concerns

about India's widening current account and fiscal deficits. Investors today will watch

out for jobless claims data of the U.S. for the last week to be released today.

The trend deciding level for the day is 16,046 / 4,859 levels. If NIFTY trades above

this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

up to 16,117 16,204 / 4,881 4,904 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

16,046 / 4,859 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

15,959 15,888 / 4,836 4,814 levels.

SENSEX 15,888 15,959 16,046 16,117 16,204

NIFTY 4,814 4,836 4,859 4,881 4,904

News Analysis

Impact of INR depreciation against USD for Metals/IT companies 4QFY2012 Result Reviews Blue Star, JK Lakshmi Cement 4QFY2012 Result Previews Bajaj Auto, Mahindra SataymRefer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (May 15, 2012)

FII 1,834 1,970 (136) 315 43,776

MFs 550 358 192 (229) (6,329)

FII Derivatives (May 16, 2012)

Index Futures 1,623 2,379 (756) 11,862

Stock Futures 1,886 1,794 92 21,050

Gainers / Losers

Unitech 22 7.8 Tata Motors 269 (7.3)

Jain Irrigation 80 5.6 Aditya Birla Nuvo 756 (6.4)Godrej Cons 539 4.1 Shriram Trans 480 (5.4)

BPCL 752 3.3 Sintex Industries 53 (5.3)

TATAGLOBAL 108 2.9 JSW Steel 619 (5.2)

BSE Sensex (1.8) (298.2) 16,030

Nifty (1.7) (84.6) 4,858

MID CAP (0.8) (46.4) 5,879

SMALL CAP (1.1) (70.3) 6,265

BSE HC (0.7) (43.3) 6,646

BSE PSU (1.5) (99.9) 6,577

BANKEX (1.7) (177.6) 10,567

AUTO (2.6) (252.6) 9,489

METAL (2.7) (274.9) 9,998

OIL & GAS (0.5) (36.0) 7,389

BSE IT (1.4) (77.3) 5,513

Dow Jones (0.3) (33.5) 12,599NASDAQ (0.7) (19.7) 2,874

FTSE (0.6) (32.4) 5,405

Nikkei (1.1) (99.6) 8,801

Hang Seng (3.2) (634.5) 19,260

Straits Times (1.4) (40.0) 2,836

Shanghai Com (1.2) (28.7) 2,346

INFY (1.5) (0.7) $43.4

WIT (3.2) (0.3) $8.8IBN (2.3) (0.7) $28.9

HDB (3.0) (0.9) $29.5

Advances 920 365

Declines 1,806 1,056

Unchanged 113 74

BSE 1,847

NSE 10,550


2/14



Impact of INR depreciation against USD for metal and ITcompanies

Over the past one year, INR has depreciated significantly vis--vis USD.

We analyzed the impact of INR depreciation on our FY2014 estimates and target

price for a few metal and IT companies at various INR-USD rates.

Exhibit 1:INR depreciation over the past one year

43

45

47

49

51

53

55

Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12

(`)

USD/INR

Source: Company, Angel Research

Metals

Metal companies price their products based on import parity (landed cost of

imported metals) and, hence, INR depreciation against USD benefits domestic

metal companies as they can raise product prices. However, it should be notedthat although domestic prices of steel, aluminium and zinc, among others, mirror

import-parity prices, domestic pricing also depends on demand-supply dynamics,

especially for steel. Hence, we believe in case INR continues to depreciate against

the USD significantly, steel companies may not pass on the full impact of INR

depreciation to their customers.

Exhibit 2:Sensitivity analysis for metal companies

Tata Steel 144,364 149,311 154,204 19,841 20,554 21,231 63.7 67.7 71.5 516 546 573

Hindustan Zinc 14,679 15,136 15,593 7,949 8,191 8,432 17.1 17.6 18.1 142 144 147

Hindalco 89,338 90,442 91,546 9,459 9,715 9,971 19.5 20.3 21.1 120 134 134

Nalco 90,235 93,209 96,182 14,741 15,172 15,725 3.6 3.7 3.8 54 56 59

Sesa Goa* 9,316 9,723 10,129 3,306 3,490 3,674 44.3 45.7 47.2 - - -

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: * Sesa Goa's valuation will reflect the valuation of the merged entity Sesa Sterlite. Hence, target price sensitivity

has not been calculated


3/14



Information Technology (IT)

An exports-driven sector like IT faces headwinds on account of a weaker demand

scenario due to slow global growth, but INR depreciation from peak levels

counters this to an extent by improving the bottom line of Indian IT companies.

Every 1% depreciation in INR against USD aids EBITDA margin of IT companies by30-40bp. The benefits derived from INR depreciation might be used by IT

companies to pass on benefits of the same to the client in pursuit of market share

gains, but in our recent conversation with IT companies most of the managements

indicated that due to highly volatile currency environment, companies are not

passing on any benefits to clients. Rather than passing benefits, companies are

investing gains in sales and marketing to capture market share. Hence, we believe

benefits from INR depreciation will be retained by IT companies and will be

reinvested into the business.

Exhibit 3:Sensitivity analysis for large-cap IT companies

Infosys 43,358 45,093 46,827 31.1 31.9 32.7 178.2 185.6 193.0 2,852 2,970 3,089

TCS 67,683 70,390 73,098 29.1 30.0 30.7 73.2 77.9 82.6 1,318 1,402 1,487

Wipro 47,599 49,038 50,478 20.2 20.9 21.5 29.6 31.5 33.5 444 473 502

HCL Tech 26,269 27,319 28,370 18.1 19.4 20.6 45.6 50.9 56.1 578 645 713

Source: Company, Angel Research

Result Reviews

Blue Star (CMP: `184 / TP: - / Upside: -)

Blue Star announced a disappointed set of numbers for 4QFY2012 results. Net

sales declined by 12.5% yoy to `801cr (`916cr). EBITDA came in at negative `49cr

in 4QFY2012 vs. profit of `103cr in 4QFY2011 and loss of `3cr in 3QFY2012.

The company reported other income of `23cr during the quarter vs. `3cr in

4QFY2011. Consequently, PAT came in at negative `45cr in 4QFY2012 vs. profit

of `57cr in 4QFY2011.

FY2013E 3,250 5.9 112 12.4 23.8 14.8 3.0 8.7 0.5FY2014E 3,551 5.9 142 15.8 25.3 11.7 2.6 7.9 0.5

JK Lakshmi Cement (CMP: `60 / TP: `79 / Upside: 31.7%)

JK Lakshmi reported its results for 4QFY2012. The company reported a strong

26.3% yoy growth in top-line to `527cr. The OPMs rose by 215bp yoy (flat on

sequential basis) to 21.5% due to strong improvement in realization even as freight

costs and personnel expenses went up by 21% and 23% yoy, respectively. The

bottom-line came in to `30.3cr from `32cr in 4QFY2011, mainly impacted by

higher depreciation of around `63.6cr on account of retrospective change in

method for charging depreciation on captive power plants from straight line to

written down value (`24.4cr for current year and `39.2cr for earlier years). PAT for

the quarter would have been higher by`42.3cr, if the company had not changed


4/14



the method of depreciation. At CMP, the stock trades at EV/tonne of US$42

FY2014E capacity.

FY2013E 1,880 19.0 132 12.2 11.9 4.9 0.6 2.7 0.5

FY2014E 2,201 22.6 178 16.4 14.3 3.6 0.5 3.9 0.9

Result Previews

Bajaj Auto

Bajaj Auto is scheduled to announce its 4QFY2012 results. We expect the

companys top line to grow by healthy 17% yoy to `4,720cr, led by 7.3% yoy

growth in volumes and an 8.6% yoy increase in net average realization. On theoperating front, the companys EBITDA margin is expected to remain largely flat at

20.6%. Thus, the bottom line is expected to grow by 21% yoy to `816cr.

Mahindra Satyam

Mahindra Satyam is slated to announce its 4QFY2012 results. We expect the

company to post revenue of US$333mn, up 2.5% qoq, majorly led by volume

growth. In INR terms, revenue is expected to come in at `1,668cr, down 2.9% qoq,

impacted negatively by INR appreciation against USD. EBITDA margin is expected

to shrink by 22bp qoq to 16.0%. PAT is expected to come in at `229cr.

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Net sales 4,797 4,052 18 4,840 (1)

EBITDA 981 862 14 1,061 (8)

EBITDA margin (%) 20.5 21.3 21.9

Net profit 784 1,400 (44) 795 (1)

Net sales 17,703 12,692 39 15,349 15

EBITDA 4,404 3,380 30 4,547 (3)

EBITDA margin (%) 24.9 26.6 29.6

Net profit 3,829 2,626 46 4,038 (5)

Net profit 3,590 21 17160 3,263 10


5/14



Net sales 33,584 33,443 0 32,964 2

EBITDA 3,215 4,466 (28) 1,717 87

EBITDA margin (%) 9.6 13.4 5.2

Net profit 899 4,176 (78) (603) -

Net sales 753 798 (6) 755 (0)

EBITDA 177 227 (22) 216 (18)

EBITDA margin (%) 23.5 28.4 28.6

Net profit 126 188 (33) 139 (9)

Economic and Political News

CBI raids at Yeddyurappa, kins residences Government taking austerity steps to arrest market slide: FM Oil prices fall as risk appetite declines Pharma secondary sales surge 18.2% in April

Corporate News

Coal India signs fuel supply pacts with 14 power plants Gas from KG-D6 drops to about 32mmscmd Glenmark gets nod from U.S. for migraine tablets Lupin, Aurobindo get U.S. nod for HIV drug Piramal Healthcare acquires US Analytics Co for USD635mnSource: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint


6/14

Date Company

May 17, 2012 Bajaj Auto, Mahindra Satyam

May 18, 2012 Coal India, St Bk of India, Tata Steel, HT Media, Siyaram Silk Mills

May 19, 2012 Reliance Capital, Force Motors

May 20, 2012 -

May 21, 2012 Adani Enterp., Nalco, Zee Entertainment, Tata Comm

May 22, 2012 Tata Power Co., Power Fin.Corpn., Godawari Ispat

May 23, 2012 Rural Elec.Corp., Tech Mahindra, Tata Global, LMW, Jyothy Laboratories

May 24, 2012 Reliance Power, GSPL, TVS Motor, Madras Cements, Hitachi

May 25, 2012 NHPC, BPCL, Sun TV Network, Crompton Greaves, Suzlon Energy, MOIL

May 26, 2012 Sarda Energy, TVS Srichakra

May 27, 2012 -

May 28, 2012 NMDC, Motherson Sumi, Britannia, Bajaj Electrical, Amara Raja Batteries, Indoco Remedies, Subros

May 29, 2012ONGC, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, Power Grid Corpn, SAIL, HPCL, GMR Infra., Aurobindo Pharma, NagarjunaConst., PVR

May 30, 2012 GAIL, M&M, Colgate, Tata Chemicals, BGR Energy , PTC India

May 31, 2012 -

June 01, 2012 Mphasis

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Result Calendar

Global economic events release calendar

Date Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

May 17, 2012 US Initial Jobless claims Thousands 05-May-12 367.00 365.00

May 22, 2012 Euro ZoneEuro-Zone ConsumerConfidence Value Apr-12 (19.90) (20.10)

UK CPI (YoY) % Change Mar-12 3.50 --

US Existing home sales Millions Mar-12 4.48 4.60

May 23, 2012 US New home sales Thousands Mar-12 328.00 335.00

May 24, 2012 Germany GDP nsa (YoY) % Change Mar-12 1.70 1.70

Germany PMI Services Value Apr-12 52.20 52.00

Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Apr-12 46.20 47.00

UK GDP (YoY) % Change Mar-12 -- --

May 29, 2012 US Consumer ConfidenceS.A./

1985=100Apr-12 69.20 70.00

May 31, 2012 Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Apr-12 19.00 --

US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change Mar-12 2.20 1.80

India Qtrly GDP YoY% % Change - 6.10 --

June 01, 2012 US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Apr-12 115.00 150.00

US Unnemployment rate % Apr-12 8.10 8.10

China PMI Manufacturing Value Apr-12 53.30 --

India Imports YoY% % Change Mar-12 24.28 --

India Exports YoY% % Change Mar-12 (5.71) --

UK PMI Manufacturing Value Apr-12 50.50 --

June 06, 2012 Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change Mar-12 -- --

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % May-12 1.00 --Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research


May 17, 2012

Market Outlook


7/14

Market Strategy

May 17, 2012


Macro watch

Exhibit1:QuarterlyGDPtrends

5.8 5.9

7.5

9.8

7.4

9.4

8.5

7.6

8.3

7.8 7.7

6.9

6.1

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

3QFY09

4QFY09

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

(%)

Source:

CSO,

Angel

Research

Exhibit2:IIPtrends

5.36.2

9.5

3.7 3.42.5

(5.0)

6.0

2.7

1.1

4.1

(3.5)(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Apr-

11

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

(%)

Source:

MOSPI,

Angel

Research

Exhibit3:MonthlyWPIinflationtrends

9.6 9.5 9.4 9.810.0 9.9 9.5

7.76.9

7.46.9 7.2

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

(%)

Source:MOSPI,AngelResearch

Exhibit4:ManufacturingandservicesPMI

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

Apr-

11

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

Mfg. PMI Services PMI

Source:Market,AngelResearch;Note:Levelabove50indicatesexpansion

Exhibit5:Exportsandimportsgrowthtrends

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

Apr-

11

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

Source:Bloomberg,AngelResearch

Exhibit6:Keypolicyrates8.00

7.00

4.75

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Apr-

11

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oc

t-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Fe

b-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)

Source:RBI,AngelResearch


8/14

Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 124 - 2,417 1,432 1,647 14.7 14.7 7.0 8.0 17.8 15.5 3.7 3.2 22.8 22.3 1.7 1.5

United Phosphorus Buy 117 183 5,382 8,191 8,764 16.5 16.5 17.1 18.3 6.8 6.4 1.1 1.0 17.5 16.2 0.8 0.7

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Buy 279 345 2,387 2,691 3,032 15.6 15.5 29.4 32.8 9.5 8.5 2.3 1.8 26.5 23.6 0.8 0.7

Apollo Tyres Buy 83 100 4,188 13,699 15,184 10.5 10.2 12.1 13.3 6.9 6.2 1.3 1.1 19.7 18.4 0.5 0.4

Ashok Leyland Buy 25 33 6,758 14,798 16,687 9.6 9.6 2.4 3.0 10.5 8.5 2.1 1.8 14.8 16.5 0.5 0.5

Automotive Axle Accumulate 487 514 736 1,211 1,387 12.1 11.7 50.3 57.1 9.7 8.5 2.4 2.0 27.8 25.7 0.7 0.6Bajaj Auto Accumulate 1,617 1,811 46,776 21,966 24,774 19.8 19.0 111.7 120.7 14.5 13.4 5.6 4.5 43.1 37.1 1.7 1.4

Bharat Forge Buy 315 372 7,328 7,173 7,998 16.3 16.5 22.3 26.6 14.1 11.9 2.7 2.3 21.0 21.0 1.1 0.9

Bosch India Accumulate 8,879 9,429 27,878 9,390 10,716 19.5 19.1 420.2 471.4 21.1 18.8 4.9 4.1 23.3 21.8 2.7 2.3

CEAT Buy 94 164 321 5,067 5,631 8.0 7.6 39.4 41.0 2.4 2.3 0.4 0.4 18.8 16.5 0.3 0.3

Exide Industries Buy 120 146 10,200 5,787 6,595 15.5 17.0 7.1 9.0 16.9 13.4 3.0 2.5 18.6 20.3 1.4 1.2

FAG Bearings Neutral 1,519 - 2,525 1,531 1,748 18.8 18.5 118.0 132.8 12.9 11.4 2.8 2.3 24.0 21.9 1.4 1.1

Hero Motocorp Buy 1,882 2,280 37,574 26,106 29,296 15.0 15.2 140.3 148.1 13.4 12.7 6.3 4.9 54.8 43.3 1.1 0.9

JK Tyre Buy 80 113 327 8,058 9,025 5.4 5.5 24.8 32.2 3.2 2.5 0.4 0.3 11.4 13.2 0.3 0.3

Mahindra and Mahindra Buy 657 802 40,317 35,095 40,213 10.7 10.5 44.6 48.7 14.7 13.5 2.6 2.3 18.8 18.1 0.8 0.7

Maruti Buy 1,192 1,510 34,450 42,683 48,736 7.1 7.5 86.6 100.6 13.8 11.9 2.0 1.7 15.3 15.5 0.6 0.5

Motherson Sumi Buy 165 216 6,399 11,167 12,516 9.5 10.0 11.3 14.4 14.6 11.5 3.2 2.6 23.3 24.7 0.7 0.6

Subros Neutral 31 - 184 1,225 1,393 8.5 8.2 4.2 5.0 7.3 6.2 0.8 0.7 10.3 11.8 0.4 0.3

Tata Motors Buy 269 328 72,403 191,183 213,150 12.6 12.6 38.7 42.9 7.0 6.3 2.4 1.9 39.8 33.9 0.5 0.4

TVS Motor Buy 34 55 1,603 7,982 8,816 6.4 6.3 5.0 5.6 6.7 6.1 1.2 1.0 18.9 18.2 0.2 0.2

Capital Goods

ABB* Sell 699 498 14,811 8,760 10,023 6.4 6.4 18.2 20.7 38.4 33.7 5.2 4.6 14.4 14.6 1.7 1.4BGR Energy Neutral 288 - 2,080 4,170 5,396 11.5 10.4 27.2 30.4 10.6 9.5 1.7 1.6 17.3 17.4 1.1 1.0

BHEL Neutral 209 - 51,094 46,344 46,916 18.3 18.6 23.5 24.1 8.9 8.7 1.8 1.5 21.3 18.9 1.0 0.9

Blue Star Buy 184 221 1,657 3,250 3,551 5.9 5.9 12.4 15.8 14.8 11.7 3.0 2.6 21.2 23.8 0.6 0.5

Crompton Greaves Buy 111 164 7,092 12,936 14,101 9.6 10.0 10.9 11.7 10.2 9.4 1.8 1.5 18.4 17.3 0.6 0.5

Jyoti Structures Buy 38 67 312 2,622 2,801 10.6 11.0 10.9 13.4 3.5 2.8 0.4 0.4 12.7 13.9 0.3 0.3

KEC International Buy 51 73 1,306 6,686 7,200 7.7 7.9 10.6 12.2 4.8 4.2 0.9 0.8 25.9 24.0 0.3 0.3

LMW Buy 1,526 2,609 1,719 2,663 3,130 12.8 12.8 185.0 217.4 8.3 7.0 1.6 1.4 21.2 21.7 0.2 0.1

Thermax Neutral 425 - 5,067 5,514 5,559 8.3 8.0 29.7 28.4 14.3 15.0 2.7 2.4 20.2 16.9 0.8 0.7


May 17, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


9/14



Cement

ACC Neutral 1,172 - 22,000 11,018 12,663 19.9 21.2 70.7 81.2 16.6 14.4 2.9 2.6 18.0 19.0 1.7 1.4

Ambuja Cements Neutral 143 - 21,983 10,035 11,504 23.5 23.8 10.1 10.6 14.1 13.6 2.8 2.5 18.5 19.4 1.8 1.5

India Cements Neutral 78 - 2,396 4,423 4,906 18.2 18.8 9.9 12.7 7.9 6.2 0.7 0.6 8.6 10.5 0.8 0.7

J K Lakshmi Cements Buy 60 79 740 1,880 2,201 19.0 22.6 12.2 16.4 5.0 3.7 0.6 0.5 11.9 14.3 0.6 0.9

Madras Cements Neutral 144 - 3,432 3,434 3,777 25.5 26.1 14.1 18.1 10.2 8.0 1.5 1.3 15.2 16.9 1.6 1.4

Shree Cements Neutral 2,632 - 9,168 5,552 6,193 25.7 26.0 130.3 182.0 20.2 14.5 4.2 3.6 19.1 22.3 1.3 1.0

UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,416 - 38,802 20,116 22,655 21.3 22.5 82.1 97.5 17.3 14.5 2.7 2.4 16.8 17.4 1.9 1.8Construction

Ashoka Buildcon Buy 199 302 1,047 2,014 2,294 22.4 22.4 28.4 30.8 7.0 6.5 0.9 0.8 14.1 13.3 2.3 2.6

Consolidated Co Neutral 15 - 271 2,526 2,792 5.7 6.6 1.8 2.8 8.0 5.2 0.4 0.4 5.6 8.2 0.3 0.3

Hind. Const. Neutral 19 - 1,128 4,239 4,522 11.1 11.8 (1.8) (0.8) (10.4) (23.8) 1.1 1.2 (9.5) (4.7) 1.3 1.2

IRB Infra Buy 116 166 3,839 3,821 4,582 42.3 40.2 15.0 16.9 7.7 6.8 1.2 1.0 16.1 15.8 2.6 2.4

ITNL Buy 166 265 3,218 6,619 7,925 23.8 23.3 22.0 26.7 7.5 6.2 1.1 0.9 14.9 15.9 2.2 2.1

IVRCL Infra Buy 47 79 1,252 5,758 6,860 9.2 9.2 4.7 6.0 10.0 7.8 0.6 0.6 6.0 7.3 0.7 0.6

Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 61 104 12,876 16,017 18,359 24.4 23.5 4.2 5.0 14.4 12.1 1.2 1.1 8.8 9.7 2.1 1.9

Larsen & Toubro Buy 1,206 1,553 73,834 59,559 69,089 12.1 11.5 70.8 76.5 17.0 15.8 2.6 2.2 16.1 15.3 1.4 1.2

Madhucon Proj Buy 46 84 337 2,503 2,903 10.7 10.7 5.8 6.6 7.9 7.0 0.5 0.5 6.6 7.0 0.7 0.6

Nagarjuna Const. Buy 33 76 847 5,790 7,022 9.2 9.5 3.5 5.4 9.5 6.1 0.4 0.3 3.7 5.6 0.8 0.8

Patel Engg. Neutral 88 - 612 3,609 3,836 13.1 13.1 14.0 14.6 6.3 6.0 0.4 0.4 6.3 6.1 1.0 1.1

Punj Lloyd Neutral 45 - 1,481 10,592 12,193 8.4 8.4 2.9 4.6 15.4 9.8 0.5 0.5 3.9 3.1 0.6 0.6

Sadbhav Engg. Buy 129 199 1,938 2,989 3,315 10.6 10.6 10.2 11.3 12.7 11.4 2.0 1.7 17.6 16.3 0.8 0.8

Simplex Infra Buy 211 316 1,044 6,732 7,902 9.3 9.6 27.2 35.1 7.8 6.0 0.8 0.7 11.0 12.6 0.5 0.4

FinancialsAllahabad Bank Accumulate 145 166 7,268 7,392 8,542 3.1 3.1 38.3 42.1 3.8 3.5 0.7 0.6 18.4 17.6 - -

Andhra Bank Neutral 105 - 5,898 5,151 5,843 3.2 3.1 22.4 25.7 4.7 4.1 0.7 0.6 15.8 16.0 - -

Axis Bank Buy 971 1,587 40,192 16,157 19,557 3.2 3.2 116.4 139.1 8.4 7.0 1.5 1.3 20.0 20.3 - -

Bank of Baroda Buy 641 925 25,090 15,993 18,918 2.6 2.6 127.3 149.9 5.0 4.3 0.8 0.7 17.8 18.2 - -

Bank of India Buy 307 411 17,609 13,558 15,551 2.5 2.4 61.6 70.8 5.0 4.3 0.8 0.7 16.8 16.9 - -

Bank of Maharashtra Buy 47 55 2,771 3,580 4,050 3.2 3.2 11.5 13.1 4.1 3.6 0.7 0.6 17.4 17.2 - -

Canara Bank Buy 395 522 17,481 12,061 13,906 2.3 2.3 83.1 92.7 4.8 4.3 0.8 0.7 16.7 16.4 - -

Central Bank Neutral 75 - 5,506 6,838 7,912 2.3 2.4 13.8 20.3 5.4 3.7 0.8 0.7 10.9 14.4 - -


May 17, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


10/14



Financials

Corporation Bank Buy 405 486 5,994 5,203 5,880 2.2 2.1 107.5 112.7 3.8 3.6 0.7 0.6 17.9 16.5 - -

Dena Bank Buy 83 111 2,918 3,149 3,522 2.8 2.8 23.3 26.1 3.6 3.2 0.6 0.5 17.7 17.0 - -

Federal Bank Neutral 409 - 6,988 2,743 3,131 3.4 3.3 49.7 57.4 8.2 7.1 1.1 1.0 14.1 14.6 - -

HDFC Accumulate 621 670 91,773 7,393 8,844 3.5 3.4 31.7 37.9 19.6 16.4 3.9 3.5 34.7 31.9 - -

HDFC Bank Accumulate 495 567 116,270 21,831 27,477 4.3 4.3 28.3 35.5 17.5 14.0 3.4 2.8 20.8 22.1 - -

ICICI Bank Buy 794 1,201 91,266 22,209 26,512 2.8 2.8 67.9 81.1 11.7 9.8 1.4 1.3 14.7 16.0 - -

IDBI Bank Buy 89 117 11,422 8,004 9,589 1.9 2.0 19.9 23.9 4.5 3.7 0.6 0.5 13.8 14.9 - -Indian Bank Accumulate 178 197 7,652 6,312 7,119 3.4 3.3 41.1 43.7 4.3 4.1 0.7 0.7 18.2 16.9 - -

IOB Buy 78 96 6,241 7,354 8,283 2.5 2.4 16.3 21.7 4.8 3.6 0.5 0.5 11.5 13.9 - -

J & K Bank Accumulate 857 960 4,157 2,420 2,792 3.5 3.6 178.0 195.8 4.8 4.4 0.9 0.8 19.5 18.6 - -

LIC Housing Finance Buy 243 286 12,268 2,108 2,607 2.6 2.6 24.5 30.6 9.9 7.9 1.9 1.6 20.1 21.4 - -

Oriental Bank Buy 214 274 6,250 6,431 7,315 2.7 2.6 54.4 63.8 3.9 3.4 0.5 0.5 13.6 14.3 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 711 1,066 24,100 19,893 23,653 3.1 3.2 153.4 175.2 4.6 4.1 0.8 0.7 18.3 18.1 - -

South Ind.Bank Neutral 22 - 2,449 1,399 1,596 2.6 2.5 3.5 3.8 6.2 5.7 1.1 1.0 18.7 17.5 - -

St Bk of India Buy 1,829 2,511 122,748 69,568 81,445 3.7 3.7 220.9 269.8 8.3 6.8 1.4 1.1 18.9 19.1 - -

Syndicate Bank Buy 88 131 5,276 7,133 8,255 3.0 3.0 25.9 30.0 3.4 2.9 0.5 0.5 16.9 17.1 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 66 - 4,117 5,623 6,380 2.4 2.4 16.9 17.9 3.9 3.7 0.7 0.6 16.5 15.4 - -

Union Bank Buy 195 276 10,209 10,215 11,854 2.9 2.8 42.7 50.3 4.6 3.9 0.8 0.6 17.0 17.5 - -

United Bank Buy 56 78 2,004 3,551 4,128 2.7 2.8 18.8 22.6 3.0 2.5 0.5 0.4 15.5 16.5 - -

Vijaya Bank Neutral 53 - 2,611 2,668 3,001 2.2 2.2 10.6 12.2 5.0 4.3 0.7 0.6 13.3 13.8 - -

Yes Bank Buy 305 470 10,782 3,209 4,144 2.7 2.8 33.9 41.5 9.0 7.3 1.9 1.6 23.1 23.3 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 3,753 - 35,997 11,423 13,309 16.3 16.3 125.3 148.4 30.0 25.3 10.2 8.0 38.0 35.4 3.1 2.6Britannia Buy 524 650 6,262 5,906 6,856 6.9 7.0 22.3 28.3 23.5 18.5 9.6 7.1 45.2 44.1 1.0 0.9

Colgate Neutral 1,220 - 16,587 3,007 3,417 21.1 22.1 37.7 42.6 32.3 28.7 38.5 31.1 129.4 120.1 5.4 4.8

Dabur India Neutral 104 - 18,118 5,878 6,799 16.8 17.0 4.2 4.9 25.1 21.2 9.1 7.4 39.3 42.0 3.1 2.7

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 2,756 - 11,589 3,124 3,663 17.1 11.6 103.0 123.3 26.8 22.4 8.3 6.6 34.0 32.9 3.4 2.8

Godrej Consumer Neutral 534 - 18,170 5,973 7,000 18.4 18.6 22.8 27.2 23.4 19.7 6.4 5.2 31.3 38.4 3.2 2.7

HUL Neutral 428 - 92,534 25,350 29,309 14.3 14.4 14.1 16.4 30.3 26.1 22.7 17.7 82.7 76.2 3.5 3.0

ITC Accumulate 228 252 178,299 28,955 33,595 35.9 35.7 9.2 10.5 24.9 21.7 8.0 6.6 34.8 33.1 5.9 5.0


May 17, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


11/14


12/14



Metals & Mining

Nalco Reduce 57 51 14,639 8,276 8,578 12.7 16.4 2.5 3.5 22.4 16.2 1.2 1.2 5.6 7.5 1.3 1.3

NMDC Accumulate 166 185 65,973 11,726 12,890 77.8 78.4 18.6 20.6 8.9 8.1 2.1 1.8 26.1 23.8 3.4 3.0

SAIL Buy 85 102 34,944 52,461 62,935 18.0 18.8 13.2 14.5 6.4 5.8 0.8 0.7 12.4 12.3 1.0 0.9

Sesa Goa Accumulate 186 206 16,204 9,067 9,316 35.7 35.5 44.5 44.3 4.2 4.2 0.9 0.8 23.5 19.5 0.4 0.1

Sterlite Inds Buy 99 123 33,152 45,805 49,029 21.2 23.5 16.5 19.1 6.0 5.2 0.7 0.6 11.5 12.0 0.3 0.2

Tata Steel Buy 402 503 38,999 141,358 142,265 11.1 13.7 45.8 58.9 8.8 6.8 0.8 0.8 10.0 11.7 0.6 0.6

Oil & GasCairn India Buy 319 372 60,942 15,513 16,074 74.0 69.7 51.1 48.6 6.3 6.6 1.0 0.9 18.3 14.8 2.8 2.0

GAIL Buy 310 392 39,335 50,472 55,503 15.3 15.6 35.4 37.0 8.8 8.4 1.5 1.3 18.7 17.0 0.5 0.4

ONGC Buy 248 319 212,091 148,157 150,563 37.6 39.5 31.0 33.6 8.0 7.4 1.4 1.3 18.8 18.1 1.1 0.9

Reliance Industries Buy 676 872 221,425 325,734 328,669 10.9 11.7 65.8 70.1 10.3 9.7 1.1 1.0 11.9 11.5 0.7 0.6

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Buy 50 91 933 1,624 1,855 14.2 15.6 6.6 9.1 7.5 5.4 1.8 1.4 27.5 29.2 0.8 0.7

Aurobindo Pharma Buy 106 175 3,093 5,243 5,767 14.6 14.6 13.8 14.7 7.7 7.2 0.9 0.4 11.4 10.9 0.9 0.8

Aventis* Neutral 2,113 - 4,867 1,482 1,682 15.5 15.5 95.0 104.0 22.3 20.3 3.9 3.1 18.6 17.0 3.1 2.6

Cadila Healthcare Buy 781 953 15,986 6,196 7,443 18.5 19.5 43.3 50.8 18.0 15.4 4.6 3.7 25.4 24.8 2.6 2.1

Cipla Buy 322 379 25,858 7,687 8,804 21.4 21.4 16.5 18.9 19.5 17.0 3.0 2.7 16.7 16.8 3.3 2.9

Dr Reddy's Neutral 1,665 - 28,222 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 19.9 17.9 4.1 3.5 22.4 21.0 2.8 2.5

Dishman Pharma Buy 44 91 358 1,282 1,538 17.9 17.9 10.1 13.0 4.4 3.4 0.4 0.3 8.5 10.1 1.0 0.9

GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,035 - 17,234 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 26.8 24.7 7.7 6.7 30.8 29.0 5.6 4.8

Indoco Remedies Buy 59 665 543 685 837 15.2 15.2 55.5 66.5 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 16.4 16.9 1.0 0.9

Ipca labs Buy 347 443 4,361 2,907 3,541 21.5 21.5 32.4 40.6 10.7 8.5 2.7 2.1 27.8 27.7 1.6 1.3

Lupin Buy 540 646 24,146 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 29.7 32.4 18.2 16.7 4.7 3.8 27.0 25.2 2.8 2.2Orchid Chemicals Buy 127 270 896 2,143 2,508 21.8 21.8 28.3 38.1 4.5 3.3 0.9 0.7 19.3 23.4 1.3 1.1

Ranbaxy* Neutral 492 - 20,751 12,046 11,980 18.0 15.8 35.7 29.8 13.8 16.5 5.2 4.2 43.1 28.1 1.7 1.7

Sun Pharma Accumulate 583 634 60,013 9,272 11,080 40.3 36.3 26.7 28.8 21.8 20.2 4.4 3.8 22.1 20.8 5.6 4.6

Power

CESC Buy 263 342 3,290 5,084 5,512 24.2 23.8 45.2 48.5 5.8 5.4 0.6 0.6 11.2 10.9 1.1 1.1

GIPCL Buy 60 98 908 1,557 1,573 28.7 27.5 10.4 10.2 5.8 5.9 0.6 0.6 10.5 9.6 1.0 0.9

NTPC Buy 141 201 116,344 73,558 84,843 23.4 23.6 12.6 14.1 11.2 10.0 1.4 1.3 13.3 13.6 2.3 2.1

Real Estate

Anant Raj Buy 51 78 1,512 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 6.1 4.0 0.4 0.3 6.3 8.9 3.6 2.7

DLF Neutral 182 - 30,834 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 19.0 13.5 1.2 1.2 6.4 8.7 5.6 4.6


May 17, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


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Real Estate

HDIL Buy 62 115 2,610 2,441 3,344 53.0 46.7 21.4 25.4 2.9 2.5 0.2 0.2 8.4 9.1 2.9 2.2

Telecom

Bharti Airtel Neutral 298 - 113,223 80,967 88,684 33.1 33.4 17.9 22.0 16.7 13.5 1.9 1.7 11.5 12.5 2.1 1.7

Idea Cellular Neutral 82 - 27,137 22,558 25,326 26.4 27.5 3.2 4.7 25.4 17.3 1.9 1.7 7.5 10.0 1.7 1.4

Rcom Neutral 65 - 13,499 21,899 23,740 32.7 32.7 4.2 6.7 15.5 9.8 0.3 0.3 2.1 3.2 2.0 1.6

zOthers

Bajaj Electrical Accumulate 217 245 2,161 3,670 4,384 8.5 8.5 18.3 22.3 11.8 9.7 2.6 2.2 23.9 24.3 0.6 0.5CRISIL Neutral 1,069 - 7,499 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 31.1 26.7 14.1 11.3 50.9 46.9 7.2 6.1

Finolex Cables Buy 35 61 539 2,334 2,687 8.8 9.3 7.6 10.2 4.6 3.5 0.6 0.5 13.7 16.1 0.2 0.1

Graphite India Buy 93 124 1,825 2,158 2,406 18.1 18.9 12.4 14.0 7.5 6.7 1.0 0.9 14.0 14.3 1.0 0.8

Greenply Buy 211 298 509 1,800 2,047 11.1 11.6 34.1 49.6 6.2 4.3 1.1 0.9 20.2 23.7 0.5 0.4

Page Industries Neutral 3,031 - 3,381 935 1,168 19.6 19.6 99.7 122.2 30.4 24.8 17.6 14.1 64.2 63.1 3.7 2.9

Sintex Buy 53 129 1,452 5,219 5,912 16.5 16.9 15.8 21.4 3.4 2.5 0.5 0.4 14.7 17.1 0.5 0.4

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 246 439 230 1,045 1,173 12.3 12.4 61.5 73.2 4.0 3.4 0.8 0.6 20.2 20.4 0.5 0.4

SpiceJet Neutral 29 - 1,383 5,384 6,443 (1.0) 4.1 (3.4) 2.4 (8.4) 12.0 (11.5) 24.3 - - 0.5 0.4

Taj GVK Buy 58 108 361 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 7.3 6.3 1.0 0.9 13.9 14.4 1.5 1.3

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on May 16, 2012


May 17, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


14/14

May 17, 2012Market Outlook

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