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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Market Outlook
ISU Extension Swine In-ServiceAmes, Iowa
Mar. 29, 2012
Chad HartAssistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Corn Supply and Use2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9 94.0
Yield (bu./acre) 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2 164.0
Production (mil. bu.) 12,092 13,092 12,447 12,358 14,270
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 801
Imports (mil. bu.) 14 8 28 20 15
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 13,729 14,774 14,182 13,506 15,086
Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 5,182 5,125 4,793 4,600 5,200
Ethanol (mil. bu.) 3,709 4,591 5,021 5,000 4,950
Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 1,316 1,370 1,407 1,405 1,420
Exports (mil. bu.) 1,849 1,980 1,835 1,700 1,900
Total Use (mil. bu.) 12,056 13,066 13,055 12,705 13,470
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,673 1,708 1,128 801 1,616
Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.06 3.55 5.18 6.20 5.00
Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Area Planted (mil. acres) 75.7 77.5 77.4 75.0 75.0
Yield (bu./acre) 39.7 44.0 43.5 41.5 43.9
Production (mil. bu.) 2,967 3,359 3,329 3,056 3,250
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 205 138 151 215 275
Imports (mil. bu.) 13 15 14 15 15
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 3,185 3,512 3,495 3,286 3,540
Crush (mil. bu.) 1,662 1,752 1,648 1,615 1,660
Seed & Residual (mil. bu.) 106 110 130 120 126
Exports (mil. bu.) 1,279 1,499 1,501 1,275 1,550
Total Use (mil. bu.) 3,047 3,361 3,280 3,011 3,335
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 138 151 215 275 205
Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.97 9.59 11.30 12.00 11.50
Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Area Planted (mil. acres) 63.2 59.2 53.6 54.4 58.0
Yield (bu./acre) 44.9 44.5 46.3 43.7 44.5
Production (mil. bu.) 2,499 2,218 2,207 1,999 2,165
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 306 657 976 862 825
Imports (mil. bu.) 127 119 97 120 120
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 2,932 2,993 3,279 2,982 3,110
Food (mil. bu.) 927 919 926 930 935
Seed (mil. bu.) 78 69 71 82 83
Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 255 150 132 145 180
Exports (mil. bu.) 1,015 879 1,289 1,000 975
Total Use (mil. bu.) 2,275 2,018 2,417 2,157 2,173
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 657 976 862 825 937
Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.78 4.87 5.70 7.30 6.30
Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Wheat Production
Source: USDA
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn vs. Wheat
Source: CME Group, 3/28/2012
5.20
5.40
5.60
5.80
6.00
6.20
6.40
6.60
6.80
7.00
7.20$ p
er
bush
el
Corn Wheat
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
9/1 9/22 10/13 11/3 11/24 12/15 1/5 1/26 2/16 3/9
Corn Soy Wheat
Change of Export Pace
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption
Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS
7.6 bil. gal.
7.4 bil. gal.
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Hog Crush Margin
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futuresCorn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Situation Facing Hog Producers in 2012Higher feed prices for most of year
Corn: $5.80-$6.60/bu in 2011/12 $5.18 in 2010/2011
Soybean meal: $290-$320/ton in 2011/12 $345 in 2010/2011
Feed prices should moderate moving into 2012/13 crop year
Source: USDA-ERS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
12
/14
/20
10
1/1
4/2
01
1
2/1
4/2
01
1
3/1
4/2
01
1
4/1
4/2
01
1
5/1
4/2
01
1
6/1
4/2
01
1
7/1
4/2
01
1
8/1
4/2
01
1
9/1
4/2
01
1
10
/14
/20
11
11
/14
/20
11
12
/14
/20
11
1/1
4/2
01
2
2/1
4/2
01
2
3/1
4/2
01
2
$ p
er
bu
she
l
Futures USDA
Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
10.50
11.00
11.50
12.00
12.50
13.00
13.50
14.00
12
/14
/20
10
1/1
4/2
01
1
2/1
4/2
01
1
3/1
4/2
01
1
4/1
4/2
01
1
5/1
4/2
01
1
6/1
4/2
01
1
7/1
4/2
01
1
8/1
4/2
01
1
9/1
4/2
01
1
10
/14
/20
11
11
/14
/20
11
12
/14
/20
11
1/1
4/2
01
2
2/1
4/2
01
2
3/1
4/2
01
2
$ p
er
bu
she
l
Futures USDA
Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Pork Production Will Increase
0
5
10
15
20
25
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
* Forecast
Bil
lio
n P
ou
nd
s
Source: USDA-ERS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Hog Inventory IncreasedInventory on December 1, Preceding Year
57
59
61
63
65
67
69
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013*
Mil
lio
n H
ead
* Forecast
Source: USDA-ERS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Only Modest Growth in Sows Farrowing
2.80
2.82
2.84
2.86
2.88
2.90
2.92
2.94
2.96
QI QII QIII QIV
2010 2011 2012** Quarters 1-2 NASS Reported , Quarters 3-4 Forecast
Mil
lio
n H
ead
Source: USDA-ERS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
8.99.09.19.29.39.49.59.69.79.89.9
10.010.110.210.3
2007 III 2008 III 2009 III 2010 III 2011 III 2012* III
Growth in Pigs per Litter Continues
*Forecast
Hea
d
2.2 %
1.7 %
1.5 %
2.1 %
1.9 %
1.8 %
Source: USDA-ERS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Canada’s Hog Inventory & Weak Dollar Will Limit Imports
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*20
21
21
22
22
23
23
Hog inventory U.S. Imports Canadian FI & Prov Slaughter
* Slaughter and Imports Forecast
Mil
lio
n H
ead
Mil
lio
n H
ead
Source: USDA-ERS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2011 Pork Exports Were A Record
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
Bill
ion
lbs.
Japan Mexico Canada South Korea China/H.K. Other
* Forecast
Source: USDA-ERS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Hog PricesNational Base, 51-52% Lean, Live Equivalent
20
30
40
50
60
70
QI QII QIII QIV Annual
2010 2011 2012* * Forecast
Do
llar
s p
er c
wt
Source: USDA-ERS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Planted Area for the 8 Majors
Source: USDA-ERS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Use for the Next Decade
Source: USDA-ERS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Crop Prices for the Next Decade
Source: USDA-ERS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Futures
Source: CME Group, 3/26/2012
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
$ p
er
bu
she
l
Corn Soy Wheat
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Livestock Production for the Next Decade
Source: USDA-ERS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Per Capita Consumption
Source: USDA-ERS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Prices
Source: USDA-ERS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Returns Over Cash Costs
Source: USDA-ERS
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
$ p
er
cwt.
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thank you for your time!
Any questions?
My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/
Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/
Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/
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