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Market Outlook for Gas & LNG Key Growth Markets by Philip Olivier CEO of ENGIE Global LNG Tokyo, 5...

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Presentation by Philip Olivier CEO of ENGIE Global LNG Tokyo, 5 April 2017, GASTECH Market Outlook for Gas & LNG Key Growth Markets
Transcript

Presentation by Philip Olivier

CEO of ENGIE Global LNGTokyo, 5 April 2017, GASTECH

Market Outlook for Gas & LNGKey Growth Markets

Agenda

Chapter 1 Global gas market: An abundant supply

Key geographical LNG growth markets: A natural expansion of the scope

Building LNG growth markets: Extend the usage

Chapter 2

Chapter 3

Global gas market: An abundant supply

Industry consensus: global LNG market has entered into a period of oversupply

4

Global LNG demand vs supplyGlobal gas demand

Source: IHS, ENGIE

Supply CAGR

2015-2020

8%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2010 2015 2020 2025

Africa

CIS

Asia Pacific

Middle East

Latin America

Europe

North America

APAC

CAGR 2015-

2020

4%

CAGR

2015-2020

2.3%

bcm

Key geographical LNG growth markets:

A natural expansion of the scope

6

LNG infrastructures as of 1995

Source IHS CERA, GIIGNL

Regasification Terminal

Liquefaction Plant

9 importing countries

8 exporting countries

LNG infrastructures as of 2000

7

Source IHS CERA, GIIGNL

Regasification Terminal

Liquefaction Plant

11 importing countries

12 exporting countries

8

LNG infrastructures as of 2017

Source IHS CERA, GIIGNL

Regasification Terminal

Liquefaction Plant

40 importing countries

19 exporting countries

What are the characteristics of a « key growth market »?

Existing or expected

infrastructure2Growing demand1

Demographic

growthEconomic

growth

production

Depletion of

domestic fields

switch

Switch from

oil/coal to gas

9

F S R U

Market design3

10

Areas that can be described as “key growth markets”

Regasification Terminal

Liquefaction PlantSource IHS CERA, GIIGNL

0

40

80

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

bcm

Latin America, urgent but limited needs

Regasification capacity LNG import contracts

Source: IHS 2017, ENGIE internal estimate Source: IHS 2017

2010-2020

+151%

switch

11

0

40

80

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

bcmF S R U

positive impact

on gas demand

neutral/balanced impact

on gas demand

negative impact

on gas demand

Regasification Terminal

Liquefaction Plant

LNG importing country

0

100

200

300

0

100

200

300

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GD

P g

row

th (

200 =

100)

bcm

Production (bcm) Gas consumption (bcm)

GDP growth (base 100 in 2000)

Gas consumption forecast

GDP CAGR2010-2025 1.3%

LNG demand

0

100

200

300

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

bcm

Source: IHS Rivalry July 2016

LNG demandCAGR2015-20304.7%

Source: IHS Rivalry July 2016

0

40

80

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

bcm

The Middle East is attracting LNG in the short term

Source: IHS 2017 Source: IHS 2017

2010-2020

+697%

12

0

40

80

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

bcm

Regasification Terminal

Liquefaction Plant

LNG importing country

positive impact

on gas demand

neutral/balanced impact

on gas demand

negative impact

on gas demand

switch

F S R U

Regasification capacity LNG import contracts

Gas consumption forecast LNG demand

0

200

400

0

300

600

900

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GD

P g

row

th (

2000 =

100)

bcm

Production (bcm) Gas consumption (bcm)

GDP growth (base 100 in 2000)

GDP CAGR2010-2025 2.2%

0

300

600

900

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

bcm

Source: IHS Rivalry July 2016

LNG demandCAGR2015-20307.3%

Source: IHS Rivalry July 2016

0

80

160

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

bcm

0

40

80

120

160

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

bcm

World LNG growth will be fueled by Asia-Pacific non-OECD countries in the medium to long term

Source: IHS 2017

2010-2020

+668%

Source: IHS 2017

13

Regasification Terminal

Liquefaction Plant

LNG importing country

positive impact

on gas demand

neutral/balanced impact

on gas demand

negative impact

on gas demand

switch

F S R U

Regasification capacity LNG import contracts

Gas consumption forecast LNG demand

0

300

600

900

0

250

500

750

1000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GD

P g

row

th (

2000 =

100)

bcm

Production (bcm) Gas consumption (bcm)

GDP growth (base 100 in 2000)

GDP CAGR2010-2025 3.7%

Source: IHS Rivalry July 2016

0

250

500

750

1000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

bcm

Source: IHS Rivalry July 2016

LNG demandCAGR2015-2030 8.3%

0

70

140

210

280

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

bcm

Europe: possibly the fastest growing LNG market in the near future

Source: IHS 2017 Source: IHS 2017

2010-2020

+67%

Source: IHS Rivalry July 2016

14

0

140

280

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

bcm

Source: IHS Rivalry July 2016

Regasification Terminal

Liquefaction Plant

LNG importing country

positive impact

on gas demand

neutral/balanced impact

on gas demand

negative impact

on gas demand

switch

F S R U

Regasification capacity LNG import contracts

Gas consumption forecast LNG demand

0

300

600

900

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

bcm

0

200

400

0

300

600

900

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GD

P g

row

th (

2000 =

100)

bcm

Production (bcm) Gas consumption (bcm)

GDP growth (base 100 in 2000)

GDP CAGR2010-2025 1.0%

LNG demandCAGR2015-20305.2%

Building LNG growth markets:

Extend the usage

The traditional gas value chain…

16

Standard

liquefaction plant

Standard LNG

carrier

Injection in grid

Gas field

Gas

treatment

NG transportation &

distribution

Natural gas for vehicles

(NGV)

Natural gas as

primary energy

Industrial end

user

Power plant

Domestic use

Private & Utility vehicles

Regasification

terminal

Gas

treatment

LNG

transfer

Pipe

transfer

Caption

Standard

storage

…is extended by the new uses of LNG

17

Standard

liquefaction plant

Standard LNG

carrier

Biogas

Gas grid

Gas

treatment

Small

liquefaction

(LNG or LBM)

Standard

storage

LNG

feeder

LNG bunker

vessel/barge

Rail

Waterways

Small

storage

Plane

Mining truck and other

high power applications

Locomotive

Truck

Merchant vessel

LNG

transfer

Power

Small

storage

LNG

Truck

LNG transportation &

distributionLNG as a fuel

Injection in grid

Private & Utility vehicles

Regasification

terminal

Gas

treatment

NG transportation &

distribution

Natural gas as

primary energy

Natural gas for vehicles

(NGV)

Industrial end

user

Power plant

Cold ironing

Injection

in grid

Fueling station

Domestic use

NG / LNG as primary

energy

Pipe

transfer

Gas field

Caption

Can we upgrade a market to « key growth »?

18

Small

storage

Power

LNG

LNG transportation &

distributionLNG as a fuel

NG transportation &

distribution

Natural gas as

primary energy

Natural gas for vehicles

(NGV)

NG / LNG as primary

energy

Existing or expected

infrastructure2Growing demand1 Market design3

Boost conversion to

gas in

coal- or oil-dependent

countries

Invest in downstream

infrastructure in order

to secure new LNG

demand

Advocate the role of

natural gas

No need to wait for the demand,

Track it and create it!

Conclusion

19

Thank you

20


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