Presentation by Philip Olivier
CEO of ENGIE Global LNGTokyo, 5 April 2017, GASTECH
Market Outlook for Gas & LNGKey Growth Markets
Agenda
Chapter 1 Global gas market: An abundant supply
Key geographical LNG growth markets: A natural expansion of the scope
Building LNG growth markets: Extend the usage
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Industry consensus: global LNG market has entered into a period of oversupply
4
Global LNG demand vs supplyGlobal gas demand
Source: IHS, ENGIE
Supply CAGR
2015-2020
8%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2010 2015 2020 2025
Africa
CIS
Asia Pacific
Middle East
Latin America
Europe
North America
APAC
CAGR 2015-
2020
4%
CAGR
2015-2020
2.3%
bcm
6
LNG infrastructures as of 1995
Source IHS CERA, GIIGNL
Regasification Terminal
Liquefaction Plant
9 importing countries
8 exporting countries
LNG infrastructures as of 2000
7
Source IHS CERA, GIIGNL
Regasification Terminal
Liquefaction Plant
11 importing countries
12 exporting countries
8
LNG infrastructures as of 2017
Source IHS CERA, GIIGNL
Regasification Terminal
Liquefaction Plant
40 importing countries
19 exporting countries
What are the characteristics of a « key growth market »?
Existing or expected
infrastructure2Growing demand1
Demographic
growthEconomic
growth
production
Depletion of
domestic fields
switch
Switch from
oil/coal to gas
9
F S R U
Market design3
10
Areas that can be described as “key growth markets”
Regasification Terminal
Liquefaction PlantSource IHS CERA, GIIGNL
0
40
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
bcm
Latin America, urgent but limited needs
Regasification capacity LNG import contracts
Source: IHS 2017, ENGIE internal estimate Source: IHS 2017
2010-2020
+151%
switch
11
0
40
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
bcmF S R U
positive impact
on gas demand
neutral/balanced impact
on gas demand
negative impact
on gas demand
Regasification Terminal
Liquefaction Plant
LNG importing country
0
100
200
300
0
100
200
300
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GD
P g
row
th (
200 =
100)
bcm
Production (bcm) Gas consumption (bcm)
GDP growth (base 100 in 2000)
Gas consumption forecast
GDP CAGR2010-2025 1.3%
LNG demand
0
100
200
300
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
bcm
Source: IHS Rivalry July 2016
LNG demandCAGR2015-20304.7%
Source: IHS Rivalry July 2016
0
40
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
bcm
The Middle East is attracting LNG in the short term
Source: IHS 2017 Source: IHS 2017
2010-2020
+697%
12
0
40
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
bcm
Regasification Terminal
Liquefaction Plant
LNG importing country
positive impact
on gas demand
neutral/balanced impact
on gas demand
negative impact
on gas demand
switch
F S R U
Regasification capacity LNG import contracts
Gas consumption forecast LNG demand
0
200
400
0
300
600
900
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GD
P g
row
th (
2000 =
100)
bcm
Production (bcm) Gas consumption (bcm)
GDP growth (base 100 in 2000)
GDP CAGR2010-2025 2.2%
0
300
600
900
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
bcm
Source: IHS Rivalry July 2016
LNG demandCAGR2015-20307.3%
Source: IHS Rivalry July 2016
0
80
160
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
bcm
0
40
80
120
160
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
bcm
World LNG growth will be fueled by Asia-Pacific non-OECD countries in the medium to long term
Source: IHS 2017
2010-2020
+668%
Source: IHS 2017
13
Regasification Terminal
Liquefaction Plant
LNG importing country
positive impact
on gas demand
neutral/balanced impact
on gas demand
negative impact
on gas demand
switch
F S R U
Regasification capacity LNG import contracts
Gas consumption forecast LNG demand
0
300
600
900
0
250
500
750
1000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GD
P g
row
th (
2000 =
100)
bcm
Production (bcm) Gas consumption (bcm)
GDP growth (base 100 in 2000)
GDP CAGR2010-2025 3.7%
Source: IHS Rivalry July 2016
0
250
500
750
1000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
bcm
Source: IHS Rivalry July 2016
LNG demandCAGR2015-2030 8.3%
0
70
140
210
280
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
bcm
Europe: possibly the fastest growing LNG market in the near future
Source: IHS 2017 Source: IHS 2017
2010-2020
+67%
Source: IHS Rivalry July 2016
14
0
140
280
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
bcm
Source: IHS Rivalry July 2016
Regasification Terminal
Liquefaction Plant
LNG importing country
positive impact
on gas demand
neutral/balanced impact
on gas demand
negative impact
on gas demand
switch
F S R U
Regasification capacity LNG import contracts
Gas consumption forecast LNG demand
0
300
600
900
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
bcm
0
200
400
0
300
600
900
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GD
P g
row
th (
2000 =
100)
bcm
Production (bcm) Gas consumption (bcm)
GDP growth (base 100 in 2000)
GDP CAGR2010-2025 1.0%
LNG demandCAGR2015-20305.2%
The traditional gas value chain…
16
Standard
liquefaction plant
Standard LNG
carrier
Injection in grid
Gas field
Gas
treatment
NG transportation &
distribution
Natural gas for vehicles
(NGV)
Natural gas as
primary energy
Industrial end
user
Power plant
Domestic use
Private & Utility vehicles
Regasification
terminal
Gas
treatment
LNG
transfer
Pipe
transfer
Caption
Standard
storage
…is extended by the new uses of LNG
17
Standard
liquefaction plant
Standard LNG
carrier
Biogas
Gas grid
Gas
treatment
Small
liquefaction
(LNG or LBM)
Standard
storage
LNG
feeder
LNG bunker
vessel/barge
Rail
Waterways
Small
storage
Plane
Mining truck and other
high power applications
Locomotive
Truck
Merchant vessel
LNG
transfer
Power
Small
storage
LNG
Truck
LNG transportation &
distributionLNG as a fuel
Injection in grid
Private & Utility vehicles
Regasification
terminal
Gas
treatment
NG transportation &
distribution
Natural gas as
primary energy
Natural gas for vehicles
(NGV)
Industrial end
user
Power plant
Cold ironing
Injection
in grid
Fueling station
Domestic use
NG / LNG as primary
energy
Pipe
transfer
Gas field
Caption
Can we upgrade a market to « key growth »?
18
Small
storage
Power
LNG
LNG transportation &
distributionLNG as a fuel
NG transportation &
distribution
Natural gas as
primary energy
Natural gas for vehicles
(NGV)
NG / LNG as primary
energy
Existing or expected
infrastructure2Growing demand1 Market design3
Boost conversion to
gas in
coal- or oil-dependent
countries
Invest in downstream
infrastructure in order
to secure new LNG
demand
Advocate the role of
natural gas