Market Outlook 180113web.angelbackoffice.com/.../pdf_report/...180113.pdfprevious week's revised...

Market Outlook January 18, 2013

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Dealer’s Diary The Indian market is expected to open in the positive, mirroring the positive opening of most of the Asian markets.

US markets moved notably higher over the course of the trading day on Thursday after moving sideways over the past few days. The rally came following the release of upbeat employment and housing reports. The jobless claims fell to 335,000 (estimated 368,000), a five-year low, in the week ended January 12th from the previous week's revised figure of 372,000. Another report from the Commerce Department stated that the housing starts jumped 12.1% to an annual rate of 954,000 in December from the revised November estimate of 851,000. The European markets also finished in the green on Thursday, after the release of better than expected economic data in the US.

Indian markets rose notable higher yesterday on reports that the government has permitted fuel price revision to reduce its fiscal deficit. Comments by Finance Minister, P. Chidambaram, on the implementation of the Goods and Service Tax and on the need for further economic reforms also boosted investor appetite.

Markets Today The trend deciding level for the day is 19,918 / 6,027 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 20,052 – 20,140 / 6,066 – 6,092 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 19,918 / 6,027 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 19,830 – 19,695 / 6,000 – 5,962 levels.

Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 SENSEX 19,695 19,830 19,918 20,052 20,140 NIFTY 5,962 6,000 6,027 6,066 6,092

News Analysis LPG cap raised to 9 cylinders; diesel price likely to increase gradually National Investment Fund aligned to enhance divestment policy BHEL wins `730cr order from Bhutan HCL Tech signs a long-term IT services agreement with Nokia PNB to issue shares upto `1,250cr on preferential basis to GoI Canara Bank increases deposit rates 3QFY2013 Result Review: HCL Tech, Hero MotoCorp, Exide Industries,

Infotech Enterprises 3QFY2013 Result Preview: Reliance Industries, ITC, HDFC Bank, Wipro,

Hindustan Zinc, MindTree

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (January 16, 2013) ` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTD

FII 3,526 2,420 1,106 11,908 11,908

MFs 478 678 (200) (1,933) (1,933)

FII Derivatives (January 17, 2013) ` cr Purch Sales Net Open Interest

Index Futures 1,306 1,230 76 7,226

Stock Futures 2,106 1,730 376 33,423

Gainers / Losers Gainers Losers

Company Price (`) chg (%) Company Price (`) chg (%)

Indian Oil Corp 316 6.6 TTK Prestige 3,487 (6.7)

HPCL 346 6.1 United Breweries 731 (5.0)

Essar Oil 77 5.1 Mphasis 384 (3.8)

JPPower 37 4.6 Havells India 668 (2.3)

Oil India 515 4.4 Exide Industries 139 (2.3)

Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)

BSE Sensex 0.7 146.4 19,964

Nifty 0.6 37.3 6,039

MID CAP 0.2 17.6 7,182

SMALL CAP (0.0) (2.5) 7,409

BSE HC (0.2) (12.3) 8,109

BSE PSU 1.4 106.3 7,650

BANKEX 0.1 16.3 14,531

AUTO 0.4 46.4 11,382

METAL 0.3 35.9 10,846

OIL & GAS 3.1 279.8 9,284

BSE IT 1.4 87.1 6,479

Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)

Dow Jones 0.6 84.8 13,596

NASDAQ 0.6 18.5 3,136

FTSE 0.5 28.4 6,132

Nikkei 0.1 9.2 10,610

Hang Seng (0.1) (17.2) 23,340 Straits Times (0.4) (13.4) 3,195 Shanghai Com (1.1) (24.6) 2,285

Indian ADR Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)

INFY 1.6 0.8 $52.1

WIT 2.5 0.2 $9.9

IBN (0.9) (0.4) $43.9

HDB (0.3) (0.1) $39.5

Advances / Declines BSE NSE

Advances 1,101 681

Declines 1,137 825

Unchanged 782 84

Volumes (` cr)

BSE 2,504

NSE 13,643



LPG cap raised to 9 cylinders; diesel price likely to increase gradually

The government has raised the annual cap on supply of cheap cooking gas to nine cylinders from six and has allowed state-run oil marketing companies to raise price of diesel in a timely manner. Post this announcement, oil marketing companies (OMCs) raised diesel prices by `0.50/litre and cut petrol rates by `0.25/litre. Further, OMCs stated that they will charge free-market rates for supplies to defence, Railways, commercial establishments and state roadways which is expected to cut the subsidy bill by `12,900cr per annum. However, the quantum and timing of further diesel price hikes is still unclear. The decision to raise the cap on cheap cooking gas is expected to increase under-recoveries by `9,300cr for (OMCs). The diesel under-recoveries (assuming no hike) would have been ~`94,000cr for FY2013. Nevertheless, we note that any further hike in diesel price is likely to result in lower subsidy burden for upstream as well as downstream companies and hence, will have a positive impact on their profitability.

For the automotive sector, we believe that the recent hike of `0.5/litre in diesel prices will not have any significant impact on customer preference for diesel passenger vehicles as the price difference between petrol and diesel prices still remains substantial at `20.3/litre. Despite the diesel price hike of `5/litre in September 2012, there was little impact on the sale of diesel vehicles which continued to grow at a strong pace and now account for ~60% of total passenger vehicle sales as compared to ~47% in FY2012. For the commercial vehicle sector, increase in diesel prices will increase the ownership cost of the fleet operators which could probably impact the demand for trucks.

On the macro front, the subsidy on petroleum has increased dramatically from 2.2% of the total subsidy burden in FY2009 to 31.7% of the total subsidy in FY2012. As per recent budgeted estimates, the government was seeking to reduce it to 22.9% of its total subsidy in FY2013 but in the April – November 2012 period itself 92.0% of the budgeted subsidy on petroleum has been exhausted.

Therefore, going forward in case further hikes in diesel prices come through, we expect it to be beneficial for narrowing the fiscal deficit. The move to align prices of regulated fuels towards market prices is also likely to correct demand-supply imbalances and ease medium-term demand-side inflationary pressures. In the near term, however, in case the hike comes into effect we expect it have an inflationary impact since it releases suppressed inflation in the economy.

National Investment Fund aligned to enhance divestment policy

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) approved the proposal to credit divestment proceeds from FY2013-14 to the National investment Fund (NIF). The utilization pattern of the NIF will change and starting April 1, 2013 the fund will be used for:

1. Subscribing to shares of PSUs, Public Sector Banks (PSBs) and Public Sector Insurance Companies, on rights basis so as to maintain majority government ownership of 51%.



2. Preferential allotment of PSU companies’ shares to promoters in case they raise fresh equity to meet capex program, so that majority government ownership is maintained.

3. Recapitalization of PSBs and Public Sector Insurance Companies.

Background

The NIF was constituted in 2005 from divestment proceeds of PSUs with its main objectives being investment in the government’s social sector projects and capital investment in select PSUs to enlarge their capital base to finance expansion or diversification. However, since 2009 the government decided that divestment proceeds (in the 2009-13 period) be utilized in full for funding capex under the government’s social sector programs such as NREGA, Indira Awas Yojana, JNNURM etc as part of its measure to stimulate growth in the slowing economy.

Subsequently, the divestment proceeds from 2009-12 amounting to over `59,000cr are invested in these identified social sector programs. So overall we view the step taken by the government as a positive one since it implies utilization of proceeds from divestment towards enhancing capital assets.

The corpus as on August 31, 2012 stood at `1,814.5cr from the disinvestment proceeds of Power Grid Corporation of India and the Rural Electrification Corporation Limited (during 2007-08). The corpus is presently being invested through three Public Sector fund managers (SBI, LIC and UTI Mutual Funds) who are likely to be discharged of this responsibility once the fund is transferred.

BHEL wins `730cr order from Bhutan

Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) has secured order for electro-mechanical equipment package for a 720 Mw (4x170 Mw) hydroelectric project in Bhutan. The order is worth `594cr plus Balance of Plant on cost plus basis. The total contract value is expected to be in the range of `730cr to `750cr.

The order was awarded to BHEL by Mangdechhu Hydroelectric Project Authority (MHPA), Bhutan. The order envisages manufacture, supply, erection and commissioning of the electro-mechanical equipment for the 720Mw Mangdechhu Hydroelectric project. We maintain our Neutral outlook on the stock.

HCL Tech signs a long-term IT services agreement with Nokia

HCL Tech has entered into a long-term, global IT infrastructure management outsourcing services agreement with Nokia. The scope of this engagement includes datacenter, network management, end user computing services and cross-functional service management across Nokia's global IT infrastructure operations. As part of this engagement, HCL Tech will be deploying its MTaaS and MyCloud solutions. HCL has been delivering global service desk and desktop management outsourcing services for Nokia since 2009. We continue to remain positive on the stock while the target price in under review.



PNB to issue shares upto `1,250cr on preferential basis to GoI

Punjab National Bank (PNB) is likely to issue shares upto `1,250cr, on preferential basis to Government of India (GoI), which will aid the bank to improve its Capital adequacy ratio (CAR). As of 2QFY2013, excluding for 1HFY2013 profits, PNB had CAR of 11.7%, with tier-I at 8.7%, which will improve by ~40bp post issuance of shares on preferential basis. We note that last year also the bank has got capital infusion of `1,285cr from the GoI. At CMP, the stock trades at 0.95x its FY2014E ABV; we recommend Neutral view on the stock.

Canara Bank increases deposit rates

Canara Bank has increased the interest rates on deposits for select maturities by 55-100bp, w.e.f January 18, 2013. Interest rates on 1-2 years, 3-5 years and 5-10years fixed deposits have been raised by 55bp to 9.05%, while for maturity between 270 days to 1 year interest rates have been increased by 100bp to 9%. However, the interest rate has been reduced by 50bp for maturity between 180-269 days to 7.5%. We note that in the last one month or so, banks like Dena Bank, Federal Bank, Bank of India and Axis Bank had also revised upwards their term deposit rates in some maturity buckets. Increase in deposit rates, in our view, is partly due to ALM (as clearly affirmed by Dena Bank and Axis Bank management, in their case) and due to moderating deposit growth and tightening liquidity situation. Even going ahead, we expect deposit growth to remain moderate as real interest rates continue to remain negative (considering CPI inflation reading of ~10%). The top management for the bank has been changed recently and at the CMP, the stock trades at 0.95x FY2014E ABV. Hence, we recommend Neutral on the stock.

3QFY2013 Result Review

HCL Technologies (CMP: `703 / TP: Under review / Upside: -)

For 2QFY2013, HCL Technologies (HCL Tech) reported yet another healthy set of results, beating our as well as market expectations on all fronts. The USD revenue came in at US$1,154mn, up 3.6% qoq, on the back of whopping 10.0% qoq USD revenue growth in constant currency (CC) terms in its infrastructure services business and 0.4% qoq volume growth in its core software services business. Overall, the volume growth of the company was ahead of its peers at 3.0% qoq. EBITDA margin and EBIT margin of the company increased by 40bp and 43bp qoq to 22.6% and 19.8%, despite having 91bp qoq wage hike impact which was a positive surprise. The negative impact of wage hike was absorbed by gain from operating efficiencies, increase in utilization and gain from savings in G&A spend. PAT came in at `965cr, up 9.0% qoq.

HCL Tech, with end-to-end IT capabilities and a strong client mining ability, is clearly emerging as a front runner and outperforming many of its peer companies. HCL Tech won 12 multi-year, multi-million dollar deals this quarter with total contract value (TCV) of deals won aggregating to US$1bn. The management sounded confident of sustaining revenue growth within the



top-tier league. We continue to be positive on the stock while the target price is under review.

Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2013E 25,325 21.7 3,594 51.0 26.8 13.8 3.6 8.4 1.8

FY2014E 28,476 20.7 3,717 52.8 22.9 13.3 3.0 7.6 1.6

Hero MotoCorp (CMP: `1,819 / TP: - / Upside: -)

Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) reported disappointing set of results for 3QFY2013 as raw-material cost pressures and sharp increase in advertisement expenses led to a 17.4% and 20.4% yoy decline in operating and net profit respectively. While top-line growth (driven by net average realization of 3.9% yoy) was in-line with our estimates; bottom-line came in 18.9% below our estimates on account of 305bp yoy (128bp qoq) contraction in operating margins.

For 3QFY2013, HMCL’s top-line recorded a modest growth of 2.6% yoy (19.3% qoq) to `6,188cr driven primarily by 3.9% yoy (1.2% qoq) growth in net average realization. Volume performance however was sluggish on a yoy basis (down 1% yoy) owing to slowdown in demand. On a sequential basis though volume grew 18% yoy led by festival demand. The operating performance witnessed a sharp deterioration as margins contracted 305bp yoy (128bp qoq) to 12.6% led by raw-material cost pressures and higher branding and promotional expenses. While raw-material cost as a percentage of sales increased 120bp yoy (140bp qoq); other expenditure surged 26.5% yoy (23.6% qoq) during the quarter. As a result, net profit registered a decline of 20.4% yoy to `488cr.

We lower our earnings expectations for FY2013/14 by 11.4%/9.3% mainly due to lowering of our volume (we now expect the company to register a 1% decline in volumes in FY2013 as against a growth of 1.9% earlier) and EBITDA margin (due to higher ad spends and raw-material cost pressures) estimates. At the CMP of `1,819, the stock is trading at 15.4x FY2014 earnings. We recommend Neutral rating on the stock.


March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2013E 23,990 13.7 2,090 104.7 44.0 17.4 7.0 8.8 1.1

FY2014E 26,957 14.5 2,355 117.9 40.5 15.4 5.7 7.3 1.0

Exide Industries (CMP: `139 / TP: - / Upside: -)

Exide Industries (EXID) reported dismal results for 3QFY2013 with top-line and bottom-line performance coming in significantly lower-than-our estimates. Top-line for the quarter registered a 17% yoy (down 3.8% qoq) growth to `1,463cr; nonetheless, it was below our estimates of `1,595cr. While the demand remained strong in the two-wheeler (2W) and four-wheeler (4W) replacement battery segments; subdued demand in the 2W and 4W OEM segments restricted top-line growth. Further, poor demand for home inverter batteries due to the onset of the winter in most parts of the country also impacted the top-line performance. On the operating front, EBITDA margins contracted ~200bp yoy to 11.3% as against our



expectation of 13.5% mainly due to 37.7% yoy increase in other expenditure. The other expenditure increased on account of increase in advertising expenses and due to the unfavorable forex movement (~40bp impact on the margins). Sequentially, operating margins contracted ~110bp yoy primarily on account of raw-material cost pressures due to ~10% qoq increase in lead prices. Consequently, net profit declined 13.4% qoq (flat yoy) to `104cr as against our estimates of `137cr. We shall release a detailed result note post the earnings conference call with the management which is scheduled today. At `139 the stock is trading at 17x FY2014 earnings. We recommend Neutral rating on the stock.


March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2013E 6,112 13.1 520 6.1 16.0 22.7 3.5 12.3 1.6

FY2014E 7,074 14.9 695 8.2 18.8 17.0 3.0 9.0 1.3

Infotech Enterprises (CMP: `178 / TP: - / Upside: -)

For 3QFY2013, Infotech reported revenue of US$87.6mn, up merely 0.5% qoq. Overall volume growth was nil in the quarter. In INR terms, the revenue came in at `475cr, down 0.4% qoq. The quarter witnessed challenges in two of the top 10 client accounts. These two accounts (one in heavy engineering and one in hi-tech) resulted in a revenue impact of -4.2% qoq. The EBITDA and EBIT margin of the company declined by 15bp and 52bp qoq to 18.5% and 15.1%, respectively. The company’s operating margin faced headwinds from muted volume growth and gross addition of 656 employees into the system. PAT came in at `62cr. Infotech added 11 new customers during the quarter – nine in ENGG and two in UT&C vertical. The stock is currently under review and we will be releasing a detailed result update on it shortly.


March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2013E 1,881 17.9 205 18.5 14.8 9.6 1.4 3.9 0.7

FY2014E 1,987 17.4 216 19.4 13.6 9.2 1.2 3.3 0.6

3QFY2013 Result Preview

Reliance Industries (CMP: `890 / TP: - / Upside : -)

Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL) is scheduled to announce its 3QFY2013 results today. We expect the company’s top-line to increase 5.7% yoy to `89,981cr due to higher petrochemical prices during the quarter. However, we expect the company’s operating margin to decline 53bp yoy to 8.0% mainly on account of decrease in production from KG D6 basin. The company’s bottom-line is expected to increase by 15.0% yoy to `5,108cr. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.


March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2013E 362,700 7.9 19,640 60.0 11.0 14.8 1.4 9.3 0.7

FY2014E 380,031 8.0 20,715 63.3 10.6 14.1 1.3 8.5 0.7



ITC (CMP: `285 / TP: - / Upside: -)

ITC is expected to announce its 3QFY2013 results today. We expect the top-line to grow by 15.1% yoy to `7,131cr. OPM is expected to decline by 249bp yoy to 35.1%. Bottom-line is expected to grow by 5.7% yoy to `1,798cr. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.


March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2013E 28,787 35.7 7,138 20.7 35.1 31.2 10.3 20.7 7.4

FY2014E 33,554 36.1 8,419 17.5 35.1 26.4 8.6 17.5 6.3

HDFC Bank (CMP: `667 / TP: - / Upside: -)

HDFC Bank is expected to announce its 3QFY2013 results today. We expect the bank to report a healthy NII growth of 24.9% yoy to `3,892cr. Non-interest income is expected to register growth of 13.0% yoy to `1,605cr, leading to an operating income growth of 21.2% yoy to `5,496cr. Provisioning expenses are expected to decline by 55.5% yoy to `146cr, leading to a healthy net profit growth of 30.1% yoy to `1,860cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at a valuation of 3.8x FY2014E P/ABV. We recommend a Neutral rating on the stock.

Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABV

March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2013E 21,615 4.4 6,726 28.7 149.7 1.8 20.7 23.3 4.5

FY2014E 26,671 4.5 8,432 35.9 177.5 1.9 22.0 18.6 3.8

Wipro (CMP: `431 / TP: - / Upside: -)

Wipro is slated to announce its 3QFY2013 results today. We expect the company’s IT services segment to post revenues of US$1,581mn, up 2.6% qoq. Volume growth is expected to be ~2.5% qoq. At the consolidated level, we expect the company to record revenues of `10,973cr, up 3.0% qoq. At a consolidated level, Wipro is expected to record 26bp qoq decline in its EBIT margin to 17.2%. PAT is expected to come in at `1,585cr. Owing to recent stock run-up, we maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.


March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2013E 43,231 20.0 6,423 26.1 19.3 16.5 3.2 10.5 2.1

FY2014E 47,241 20.0 6,883 28.1 17.9 15.3 2.7 9.1 1.8

Hindustan Zinc (CMP: `132 / TP: `145 / Upside: 10%)

Hindustan Zinc is slated to announce its 3QFY2013 results. The company’s top-line is expected to increase by 10.8% yoy to `3,044cr mainly on account of higher volumes and average realizations of zinc and lead. EBITDA margin is expected to expand by 218bp to 53.2% on account of increase in realizations. Its bottom-line is expected to increase by 31.6% yoy to `1,685cr. We maintain Accumulate on the stock with a target price of `145.




March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2013E 12,446 52.3 6,315 14.9 21.4 8.8 1.7 5.0 2.6

FY2014E 13,538 52.9 6,914 16.4 19.7 8.1 1.5 3.7 2.0

MindTree (CMP: `745 / TP: - / Upside: -)

MindTree is slated to announce its 3QFY2013 results today. We expect the company to post revenue of US$109.7mn, up 2.2% qoq. In rupee terms, the revenue is expected to come in at `593cr, down 0.5% qoq. EBITDA margin is expected to decline by 117bp qoq to 21.0%. PAT is expected to come in at `75cr. Owing to recent stock run-up, we recommend Neutral rating on the stock.


March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2013E 2,339 20.9 311 75.4 24.6 9.9 2.4 5.0 1.0

FY2014E 2,502 18.4 321 78.1 20.3 9.5 1.9 4.8 0.9

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

HDFC Bank (18/01/2013) Particulars (` cr) 3QFY13E 3QFY12 y-o-y (%) 2QFY13 q-o-q (%)

Net profit 1,833 1,430 28 1,560 17

Hindustan Zinc (18/01/2013) Particulars (` cr) 3QFY13E 3QFY12 y-o-y (%) 2QFY13 q-o-q (%)

Net sales 3,119 2,747 14 2,822 11

EBITDA 1,556 1,402 11 1,443 8

EBITDA margin (%) 49.9 51.0 51.1 Net profit 1,578 1,274 24 1,540 2

IDBI Bank (18/01/2013) Particulars (` cr) 3QFY13E 3QFY12 y-o-y (%) 2QFY13 q-o-q (%)

Net profit 527 410 29 484 9

ITC (18/01/2013) Particulars (` cr) 3QFY13E 3QFY12 y-o-y (%) 2QFY13 q-o-q (%)

Net sales 7,291 6,106 19 7,146 2

EBITDA 2,791 2,292 22 2,688 4

EBITDA margin (%) 38.3 37.5 37.6 Net profit 1,975 1,700 16 1,836 8

Reliance Industries (18/01/2013) Particulars (` cr) 3QFY13E 3QFY12 y-o-y (%) 2QFY13 q-o-q (%)

Net sales 91,861 85,135 8 90,335 2

EBITDA 7,336 7,285 1 7,705 (5)

EBITDA margin (%) 8.0 8.6 8.5 Net profit 5,078 4,440 14 5,376 (6)



Reliance Infrastructure (18/01/2013) Particulars (` cr) 3QFY13E 3QFY12 y-o-y (%) 2QFY13 q-o-q (%)

Net sales 3,958 4,476 (12) 3,488 13

EBITDA 491 652 (25) 454 8

EBITDA margin (%) 12.4 14.6 13.0 Net profit 337 416 (19) 414 (19)

Ultratech Cement (19/01/2013) Particulars (` cr) 3QFY13E 3QFY12 y-o-y (%) 2QFY13 q-o-q (%)

Net sales 4,919 4,572 8 4,700 5

EBITDA 960 1,044 (8) 1,035 (7)

EBITDA margin (%) 19.5 22.8 22.0 Net profit 527 617 (15) 550 (4)

Asian Paints Consolidated (21/01/2013) Particulars (` cr) 3QFY13E 3QFY12 y-o-y (%) 2QFY13 q-o-q (%)

Net sales 2,993 2,561 17 2,616 14

EBITDA 487 397 23 382 27

EBITDA margin (%) 16.3 15.5 14.6 Net profit 314 266 18 251 25

HDFC (21/01/2013) Particulars (` cr) 3QFY13E 3QFY12 y-o-y (%) 2QFY13 q-o-q (%)

Net profit 1,165 981 19 1,151 1

NTPC (21/01/2013) Particulars (` cr) 3QFY13E 3QFY12 y-o-y (%) 2QFY13 q-o-q (%)

Net sales 16,721 15,332 9 16,196 3

EBITDA 3,786 2,906 30 4,456 (15)

EBITDA margin (%) 22.6 19.0 27.5 Net profit 2,435 2,130 14 3,142 (23)

Hindustan Unilever (22/01/2013) Particulars (` cr) 3QFY13E 3QFY12 y-o-y (%) 2QFY13 q-o-q (%)

Net sales 6,623 5,770 15 6,155 8

EBITDA 1,072 970 11 977 10

EBITDA margin (%) 16.2 16.8 15.9 Net profit 884 753 17 807 10

Kotak Mahindra Bank (22/01/2013) Particulars (` cr) 3QFY13E 3QFY12 y-o-y (%) 2QFY13 q-o-q (%)

Net profit 314 276 14 280 12



Economic and Political News

Government to cap allocations for annuity payments for PPP projects Government approves 50% cut in reserve price of CDMA spectrum Government imposes 2.5% import duty on crude edible oil India to see 6.1% economic growth this year: UN

Corporate News

Essar Ports to invest `10,000cr in Gujarat Honda, Hero MotoCorp to launch indigenously developed products next fiscal RCom,Tata Tele to be charged `2,900cr one-time spectrum fee

Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

Date Company

January 18, 2013 Reliance Industries, ITC, HDFC Bank, Wipro, Hind. Zinc, Reliance Infra., IDBI Bank, Blue Star, Mindtree, NIIT

January 19, 2013 UltraTech Cement, Bhushan Steel, Force Motors

January 20, 2013

January 21, 2013 NTPC, HDFC, Asian Paints, SpiceJet, Alembic Pharma

January 22, 2013 HUL, Kotak Mah. Bank, Indiabulls Fin., Bank of Maharashtra, Tata Sponge

January 23, 2013 Rcom, Zee Entertainment, Sun TV Network, Syndicate Bank, Rallis, Greenply

January 24, 2013 Larsen & Toubro, Sesa Goa, Andhra Bank, Ashok Leyland, Vijaya Bank

January 25, 2013 Maruti, Reliance Power, Shriram Trans., Oriental Bank, LMW, Sarda Energy

January 26, 2013

January 27, 2013 Persistent

January 28, 2013 Mundra Port, Adani Power, JSW Steel , Amara Raja Batteries

January 29, 2013 Sterlite Inds, Dabur India, Indoco Remedies, PVR

January 30, 2013 Titan Inds., Colgate, Central Bank, IOB, Ipca labs, Dena Bank, Jyoti Structures

January 31, 2013 ICICI Bank, Siemens, Grasim Inds, Lupin, Godrej Consumer, Allahabad Bank, Tata Global, Thermax

February 01, 2013 Bharti Airtel, Adani Enterp., IDFC, Marico, Corporation Bank, TVS Motor, Hind. Const.

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Result Calendar

Global economic events release calendar

Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

January 18, 2013 7:30AM China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Dec 10.30 10.20

7:30AM China Real GDP (YoY) % Change 4Q 7.90 7.80

January 22, 2013 8:30PM US Existing home sales Millions Dec 5.04 5.10

January 23, 2013 8:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value Jan A (26.50) (25.80)

3:00PM UK Jobless claims change % Change Dec (3.00) 1.50

January 24, 2013 2:00PM Germany PMI Services Value Jan A 52.00 51.80

2:00PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Jan A 46.00 46.50

January 25, 2013 3:00PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 4Q A -- 0.20

8:30PM US New home sales Thousands Dec 377.00 382.00

January 29, 2013 8:30PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 Jan 65.10 --

11:00AM India RBI Repo rate % Jan 29 8.00 --

11:00AM India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Jan 29 4.25 --

11:00AM India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Jan 29 7.00 --

January 30, 2013 7:00PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 4Q A 3.10 1.50

January 31, 2013 2:25PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Jan 3.00 --

12:45AM US FOMC rate decision % Jan 30 0.25 --

February 1, 2013 7:00PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Jan 155.00 --

7:00PM US Unnemployment rate % Jan 7.80 --

3:00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Jan 51.40 --

6:30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Jan 50.60 --

February 7, 2013 5:30PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Feb 7 0.50 0.50

6:15PM Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Feb 7 0.75 --

3:00PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Dec (2.40) --

February 8, 2013 5:29PM China Exports YoY% % Change Jan 14.10 --

11:00AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Jan 2.50 --

February 11, 2013 5:29PM India Imports YoY% % Change Jan 6.30 --

5:29PM India Exports YoY% % Change Jan (1.90) --


January 18, 2013

Market Outlook



Macro watch

Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends


Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Source: RBI, Angel Research

3.5

5.7

9.0

7.5

11.2

8.5 7.6

8.2 9.2

8.0

6.7 6.1

5.3 5.5 5.3

3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0

10.0 11.0 12.0

4QFY

09

1QFY

10

2QFY

10

3QFY

10

4QFY

10

1QFY

11

2QFY

11

3QFY

11

4QFY

11

1QFY

12

2QFY

12

3QFY

12

4QFY

12

1QFY

13

2QFY

13

(%)

2.7

1.0

4.3

(2.8)(1.3)

2.5

(2.0)(0.1)

2.0

(0.7)

8.3

(0.1)

(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep-

12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

(%)

7.7

6.9

7.4

7.77.5 7.6 7.6 7.5

8.0 8.1

7.57.2

6.26.46.66.87.07.27.47.67.88.08.2

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-

12

Aug

-12

Sep-

12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

(%)

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-

12

Aug

-12

Sep-

12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Mfg. PMI Services PMI

(30.0)

(15.0)

0.0

15.0

30.0

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep-

12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

8.00

7.00

4.25

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep-

12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)

Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( ₹cr ) OPM(%) EPS (₹) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ₹ ) Price ( ₹) ( ₹ cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 148 - 2,886 1,466 1,686 14.8 14.8 7.0 8.1 21.2 18.3 4.5 3.8 22.6 22.5 2.0 1.8

United Phosphorus Buy 139 170 6,137 8,421 9,263 16.5 16.5 15.0 17.0 9.2 8.2 1.4 1.2 15.6 15.5 0.8 0.7

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Neutral 295 - 5,047 2,911 3,321 16.2 16.2 17.3 19.8 17.1 14.9 4.7 3.7 31.1 27.6 1.7 1.4

Apollo Tyres Accumulate 88 96 4,456 13,713 15,341 11.2 11.2 12.5 14.8 7.1 6.0 1.3 1.1 20.2 19.9 0.5 0.4

Ashok Leyland Buy 27 31 7,091 14,226 16,256 9.4 10.0 2.1 2.8 12.7 9.5 2.3 2.0 12.9 16.0 0.6 0.5

Automotive Axle# Neutral 392 - 593 1,103 1,240 11.0 11.3 39.1 45.0 10.0 8.7 1.8 1.8 19.5 22.8 0.6 0.5

Bajaj Auto Neutral 2,052 - 59,375 20,775 23,889 18.5 19.0 107.6 126.4 19.1 16.2 7.9 6.2 45.8 42.8 2.5 2.1

Bharat Forge Accumulate 251 278 5,850 6,754 7,565 15.5 15.7 18.8 23.2 13.4 10.9 2.3 2.0 18.5 19.7 1.0 0.9

Bosch India* Neutral 9,183 - 28,834 9,973 11,320 17.8 18.0 396.2 455.7 23.2 20.2 4.4 3.7 18.8 18.2 2.5 2.1

CEAT Buy 113 163 388 4,989 5,634 8.2 8.5 27.1 40.8 4.2 2.8 0.5 0.4 13.2 17.2 0.3 0.2

Exide Industries Neutral 139 - 11,811 6,112 7,074 13.1 14.9 6.1 8.2 22.7 17.0 3.5 3.0 16.0 18.8 1.7 1.4

FAG Bearings* Accumulate 1,659 1,807 2,756 1,715 1,939 17.6 18.4 127.7 150.6 13.0 11.0 2.6 2.1 21.7 21.1 1.4 1.1

Hero Motocorp Neutral 1,819 - 36,313 23,990 26,957 13.7 14.5 104.7 117.9 17.4 15.4 7.0 5.7 44.0 40.5 1.2 1.1

JK Tyre Buy 123 165 504 7,517 8,329 6.6 6.6 37.2 41.3 3.3 3.0 0.6 0.5 18.8 17.8 0.3 0.3

Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate 901 998 55,323 40,035 46,272 11.5 11.6 54.4 62.1 16.6 14.5 3.7 3.1 24.2 23.2 1.2 1.0

Maruti Neutral 1,497 - 43,247 43,384 51,903 7.3 8.6 67.3 94.6 22.3 15.8 2.6 2.2 12.1 15.1 0.8 0.7

Motherson Sumi Neutral 195 - 11,463 24,285 27,317 6.7 7.2 8.1 10.6 24.2 18.4 5.1 4.2 22.9 24.7 0.6 0.6

Subros Buy 29 35 176 1,286 1,479 9.4 9.7 2.6 5.1 11.3 5.8 0.6 0.6 5.6 10.3 0.4 0.4

Tata Motors Accumulate 329 337 87,579 190,883 217,164 12.8 13.1 35.5 42.5 9.3 7.7 2.4 1.9 30.2 27.6 0.5 0.4

TVS Motor Neutral 46 - 2,174 7,298 8,123 6.1 6.4 4.6 5.8 10.1 7.9 1.7 1.4 17.4 19.4 0.3 0.2

Capital Goods

ABB* Sell 686 573 14,546 7,790 9,653 4.5 7.8 8.7 22.1 78.9 31.1 5.5 4.8 7.1 16.5 1.9 1.5

BGR Energy Neutral 260 - 1,873 3,567 4,357 11.8 10.9 24.6 26.8 10.6 9.7 1.5 1.4 30.7 26.3 1.0 0.9

BHEL Neutral 226 - 55,255 47,801 43,757 18.5 18.0 24.6 21.8 9.2 10.4 2.8 2.3 33.5 24.5 1.0 1.1

Blue Star Buy 175 224 1,570 2,538 2,681 4.6 5.7 7.3 11.3 23.8 15.5 3.5 3.0 15.6 20.7 0.7 0.6

Crompton Greaves Accumulate 117 135 7,525 12,320 14,390 5.5 7.2 4.3 7.8 27.3 15.0 2.0 1.8 7.4 12.6 0.6 0.6

Jyoti Structures Buy 44 51 358 2,794 3,048 10.6 10.6 9.2 11.7 4.7 3.7 0.5 0.4 11.9 13.5 0.3 0.3

KEC International Buy 67 78 1,722 6,909 7,907 6.2 7.2 5.4 8.8 12.4 7.6 1.5 1.3 17.0 23.6 0.4 0.4

LMW Reduce 2,250 1,992 2,535 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 15.7 13.6 2.6 2.4 17.4 18.4 0.6 0.4

Thermax Neutral 601 - 7,162 5,552 5,767 9.3 10.2 28.3 30.9 21.2 19.5 3.8 3.4 19.3 18.4 1.1 1.1


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

January 18, 2013



Cement

ACC Neutral 1,361 - 25,557 11,012 12,333 21.1 20.9 77.0 80.3 17.7 17.0 3.3 3.0 19.5 18.7 2.1 1.8

Ambuja Cements Neutral 200 - 30,782 10,210 11,811 26.0 25.7 11.2 12.6 17.8 15.8 3.8 3.4 20.3 20.7 2.6 2.1

India Cements Neutral 85 - 2,619 4,293 4,666 17.7 18.1 8.6 10.8 9.9 7.9 0.7 0.7 7.5 9.0 1.0 0.9

J K Lakshmi Cements Neutral 140 - 1,707 2,171 2,544 22.5 22.5 21.6 23.2 6.5 6.0 1.2 1.0 19.0 17.8 0.9 1.1

Madras Cements Neutral 230 - 5,467 3,814 4,045 28.8 27.1 18.3 18.7 12.6 12.3 2.3 2.0 19.4 17.0 2.1 1.8

Shree Cements^ Neutral 4,396 - 15,315 5,701 6,210 29.7 28.1 240.7 260.7 18.3 16.9 4.4 3.6 27.1 23.6 2.2 1.8

UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,911 - 52,382 21,277 23,939 22.3 23.2 101.5 119.0 18.8 16.1 3.5 2.9 19.9 19.8 2.4 2.3

Construction

Ashoka Buildcon Buy 200 286 1,053 2,032 2,311 22.4 22.4 27.0 31.6 7.4 6.3 0.9 0.8 13.0 13.4 1.9 2.2

Consolidated Co Neutral 16 - 304 2,262 2,522 5.9 6.3 0.9 1.6 18.0 10.6 0.5 0.5 2.7 4.6 0.4 0.4

IRB Infra Buy 126 164 4,203 3,843 4,212 43.1 43.6 16.8 17.8 7.5 7.1 1.3 1.1 18.3 17.0 3.2 3.5

ITNL Neutral 210 - 4,084 6,564 7,054 27.2 27.4 26.3 29.0 8.0 7.2 1.3 1.1 17.0 16.3 2.8 2.8

IVRCL Infra Neutral 43 - 1,309 4,249 6,897 7.8 8.2 0.3 3.4 138.3 12.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 4.4 0.9 0.6

Jaiprakash Asso. Accumulate 92 100 19,728 13,842 15,863 26.9 26.4 3.7 4.6 25.0 20.1 1.5 1.4 6.2 7.3 2.9 2.6

Larsen & Toubro Accumulate 1,528 1,748 93,967 61,031 69,753 11.2 11.6 73.8 85.5 20.7 17.9 3.3 2.9 13.5 14.1 1.7 1.5

Nagarjuna Const. Neutral 55 - 1,419 5,947 6,569 8.5 8.6 3.1 4.1 17.8 13.5 0.6 0.6 3.3 4.2 0.6 0.6

Punj Lloyd Neutral 56 - 1,846 11,892 13,116 9.0 9.0 1.8 3.2 30.7 17.3 0.6 0.6 2.0 3.5 0.6 0.5

Sadbhav Engg. Buy 128 168 1,931 2,344 2,804 10.6 10.7 7.2 8.7 17.8 14.7 2.1 1.9 13.0 13.5 1.2 1.0

Simplex Infra Buy 206 251 1,017 6,882 8,032 9.1 9.1 23.2 31.3 8.9 6.6 0.8 0.7 9.1 11.2 0.5 0.5

Unity Infra Buy 44 59 324 2,180 2,455 13.7 13.4 13.3 15.0 3.3 2.9 0.4 0.4 12.5 12.5 0.5 0.5

Financials

Allahabad Bank Accumulate 186 199 9,300 6,403 7,186 2.7 2.8 30.5 33.6 6.1 5.5 0.9 0.8 14.9 14.6 - -

Andhra Bank Neutral 122 - 6,810 4,706 5,444 2.9 3.0 21.4 22.4 5.7 5.4 0.9 0.8 15.1 14.2 - -

Axis Bank Buy 1,405 1,641 60,011 15,959 18,660 3.2 3.2 119.2 139.0 11.8 10.1 2.2 1.9 20.3 20.1 - -

Bank of Baroda Neutral 867 - 35,638 15,284 18,032 2.5 2.6 109.6 137.7 7.9 6.3 1.2 1.0 15.5 17.1 - -

Bank of India Neutral 382 - 21,904 12,568 14,758 2.2 2.4 41.6 64.1 9.2 6.0 1.2 1.0 11.6 16.0 - -

Bank of Maharashtra Accumulate 60 64 3,526 3,576 3,893 3.1 3.1 9.3 12.0 6.5 5.0 0.9 0.8 14.0 16.1 - -

Canara Bank Neutral 515 - 22,817 10,828 12,005 2.1 2.2 64.7 80.4 8.0 6.4 1.1 1.0 13.2 14.7 - -

Central Bank Neutral 89 - 6,559 7,252 8,236 2.5 2.6 16.8 21.4 5.3 4.2 1.0 0.8 13.1 14.8 - -

Corporation Bank Buy 475 551 7,038 4,835 5,570 2.0 2.2 105.0 99.8 4.5 4.8 0.8 0.7 17.5 14.8 - -

Dena Bank Accumulate 119 132 4,157 3,125 3,457 2.7 2.8 26.2 24.2 4.5 4.9 0.8 0.7 19.6 15.6 - -


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

January 18, 2013



Financials

Federal Bank Accumulate 512 576 8,754 2,682 2,968 3.3 3.2 48.6 51.7 10.5 9.9 1.4 1.2 13.8 13.2 - -

HDFC Neutral 810 - 124,845 7,336 8,802 3.5 3.5 31.5 37.8 25.7 21.4 5.1 4.6 34.8 32.1 - -

HDFC Bank Neutral 667 - 157,926 21,615 26,671 4.4 4.5 28.7 35.9 23.3 18.6 4.5 3.8 20.7 22.0 - -

ICICI Bank Buy 1,163 1,397 133,685 22,219 26,447 2.9 3.0 69.1 82.9 16.8 14.0 2.0 1.9 14.2 15.6 - -

IDBI Bank Accumulate 114 119 14,625 7,990 9,279 1.8 2.1 16.8 22.1 6.8 5.2 0.8 0.7 11.7 13.9 - -

Indian Bank Buy 214 252 9,188 5,902 6,563 3.2 3.2 41.3 43.2 5.2 5.0 0.9 0.8 18.4 16.8 - -

IOB Accumulate 89 98 7,081 7,063 8,308 2.3 2.5 12.6 20.4 7.0 4.4 0.7 0.6 9.0 13.3 - -

J & K Bank Neutral 1,314 - 6,372 2,830 2,910 3.6 3.6 234.8 197.4 5.6 6.7 1.3 1.1 25.1 18.0 - -

LIC Housing Finance Buy 278 328 14,035 1,799 2,255 2.3 2.4 20.3 27.3 13.7 10.2 2.2 1.9 16.9 19.7 - -

Oriental Bank Accumulate 339 369 9,882 6,330 7,105 2.6 2.7 58.4 65.1 5.8 5.2 0.8 0.7 14.5 14.4 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Accumulate 891 933 30,207 19,688 22,497 3.2 3.3 138.9 164.5 6.4 5.4 1.1 1.0 16.7 17.3 - -

South Ind.Bank Buy 28 34 3,755 1,583 1,789 3.0 2.9 3.5 4.1 8.1 6.9 1.3 1.2 19.1 17.7 - -

St Bk of India Accumulate 2,468 2,600 165,637 60,677 69,712 3.3 3.3 224.3 257.3 11.0 9.6 1.9 1.6 17.6 17.7 - -

Syndicate Bank Accumulate 138 158 8,304 6,810 7,807 3.0 3.0 28.0 27.2 4.9 5.1 0.9 0.8 19.4 16.4 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 83 - 5,484 5,235 6,086 2.3 2.4 12.0 14.9 6.9 5.5 1.1 0.9 12.0 13.5 - -

Union Bank Accumulate 265 286 14,581 9,963 11,536 2.8 2.9 40.8 46.8 6.5 5.7 1.1 0.9 16.2 16.4 - -

United Bank Buy 79 90 2,865 3,498 3,858 2.5 2.8 15.1 21.6 5.3 3.7 0.7 0.6 12.5 16.1 - -

Vijaya Bank Accumulate 63 66 3,132 2,333 2,728 2.0 2.2 7.3 10.4 8.7 6.1 0.9 0.8 9.3 12.1 - -

Yes Bank Accumulate 524 576 18,741 3,364 4,260 2.8 3.0 36.3 42.6 14.4 12.3 3.2 2.6 24.6 23.6 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 4,333 - 41,559 11,198 13,184 15.4 15.7 117.1 141.5 37.0 30.6 12.1 9.6 36.4 35.0 3.6 3.0

Britannia Buy 490 584 5,851 5,627 6,581 4.9 5.7 18.3 24.7 26.8 19.9 9.8 7.5 39.1 42.7 1.0 0.8

Colgate Neutral 1,446 - 19,663 3,146 3,573 20.6 21.4 36.4 42.5 39.8 34.0 36.8 30.8 102.0 98.5 6.2 5.4

Dabur India Neutral 129 - 22,501 6,124 7,101 17.0 16.8 4.7 5.4 27.8 23.8 11.7 9.2 44.5 41.5 3.7 3.1

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 3,813 - 16,034 3,084 3,617 15.3 15.5 101.2 118.3 37.7 32.2 11.5 9.3 33.5 31.9 4.9 4.1

Godrej Consumer Neutral 733 - 24,951 6,355 7,548 16.7 17.4 20.3 25.4 36.1 28.8 7.6 6.3 23.2 25.1 4.1 3.4

HUL Neutral 501 - 108,217 25,350 28,974 13.3 13.5 14.7 17.1 34.0 29.4 26.9 19.0 84.5 75.8 4.1 3.5

ITC Neutral 285 - 224,649 28,787 33,554 35.7 36.1 9.1 10.8 31.2 26.5 10.2 8.5 35.2 35.1 7.4 6.3

Marico Neutral 225 - 14,480 4,840 5,643 13.6 13.6 6.4 8.1 34.9 27.7 6.9 5.6 26.3 23.3 3.1 2.5

Nestle* Neutral 4,799 - 46,267 8,487 10,081 21.2 22.1 113.0 142.5 42.5 33.7 25.5 17.5 70.5 61.6 5.5 4.5


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

January 18, 2013



FMCG

Tata Global Neutral 155 - 9,582 7,207 7,927 9.1 9.5 6.9 8.2 22.4 19.0 2.4 2.3 8.9 9.8 1.3 1.1

IT

HCL Tech^ Accumulate 703 725 48,849 24,453 27,269 19.8 18.7 45.0 50.0 15.6 14.1 3.8 3.1 24.4 22.6 1.8 1.6

Hexaware* Buy 91 118 2,709 1,941 2,118 20.8 19.0 10.7 10.7 8.5 8.5 2.1 1.8 25.3 22.0 1.1 1.0

Infosys Neutral 2,796 - 160,568 40,746 44,283 28.9 28.8 162.6 172.9 17.2 16.2 4.1 3.5 23.5 21.3 3.3 2.9

Infotech Enterprises Neutral 179 - 2,002 1,900 2,064 18.2 17.8 19.1 21.2 9.4 8.5 1.4 1.2 15.2 14.6 0.7 0.6

KPIT Cummins Accumulate 118 130 2,264 2,221 2,390 16.1 15.9 11.3 13.0 10.4 9.0 2.3 1.8 21.9 20.9 1.0 0.9

Mahindra Satyam Neutral 119 - 14,059 7,670 8,308 20.3 19.3 9.9 10.8 12.1 11.0 3.4 2.6 28.0 23.5 1.4 1.2

Mindtree Accumulate 745 781 3,070 2,339 2,502 20.9 18.4 75.4 78.1 9.9 9.5 2.4 1.9 24.6 20.3 1.1 0.9

Mphasis& Neutral 384 - 8,061 5,531 5,874 17.6 17.5 35.4 37.7 10.8 10.2 1.6 1.4 14.7 13.5 1.0 0.9

NIIT Buy 29 36 477 1,048 1,161 9.1 10.9 4.1 6.2 7.0 4.7 0.7 0.7 10.3 14.1 0.3 0.2

Persistent Neutral 573 - 2,292 1,277 1,398 26.8 25.2 48.0 53.9 11.9 10.6 2.3 1.9 19.0 17.9 1.4 1.2

TCS Accumulate 1,362 1,465 266,622 62,954 70,871 29.0 28.9 71.6 79.1 19.0 17.2 6.3 5.1 33.2 29.7 4.0 3.5

Tech Mahindra Accumulate 1,018 1,087 13,017 6,671 7,290 19.8 19.0 94.1 106.4 10.8 9.6 2.6 2.1 24.0 21.6 2.0 1.7

Wipro Neutral 431 - 106,161 43,231 47,241 20.0 20.0 26.2 28.1 16.5 15.4 3.2 2.8 19.3 17.9 2.1 1.8

Media

D B Corp Accumulate 234 264 4,286 1,581 1,784 23.3 25.0 11.6 14.4 20.2 16.2 3.9 3.4 21.0 22.3 2.6 2.2

HT Media Accumulate 106 121 2,491 2,111 2,272 15.0 15.2 7.4 8.3 14.4 12.8 1.6 1.4 11.3 11.4 0.8 0.7

Jagran Prakashan Accumulate 109 126 3,452 1,503 1,681 23.1 23.1 6.4 7.3 17.1 15.0 4.2 3.8 25.8 26.5 2.5 2.2

PVR Neutral 281 - 814 682 786 17.3 16.9 17.6 19.7 16.0 14.3 1.9 1.7 14.9 14.5 1.5 1.3

Sun TV Network Neutral 426 - 16,800 1,942 2,237 77.2 75.5 17.6 19.1 24.2 22.3 5.9 5.3 25.8 25.2 8.0 6.9

Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel Neutral 437 - 9,887 11,307 14,287 29.5 29.1 45.1 51.0 9.7 8.6 1.1 1.0 12.2 12.2 2.9 2.3

Coal India Neutral 352 - 222,589 66,666 70,292 25.7 27.3 24.2 26.6 14.6 13.2 4.3 3.5 33.1 29.1 2.4 2.1

Electrosteel Castings Accumulate 26 29 901 1,984 2,074 10.6 11.6 0.8 2.0 31.2 12.9 0.5 0.2 1.7 4.1 0.7 0.6

Hind. Zinc Accumulate 132 145 55,774 12,446 13,538 52.3 52.9 15.0 16.4 8.8 8.1 1.7 1.5 21.4 19.7 2.6 2.0

Hindalco Neutral 122 - 23,406 79,148 89,258 9.4 9.0 15.0 15.6 8.2 7.9 0.7 0.6 8.8 8.4 0.7 0.6

JSW Steel Neutral 861 - 19,207 39,586 41,459 17.6 17.0 78.7 90.1 11.0 9.6 1.1 1.0 10.2 10.7 0.9 0.9

MOIL Neutral 258 - 4,328 941 1,019 47.3 48.3 25.8 28.1 10.0 9.2 1.6 1.4 16.7 16.2 2.3 1.9

Monnet Ispat Buy 268 344 1,723 2,501 3,264 22.2 24.6 41.8 55.2 6.4 4.9 0.7 0.6 11.3 13.4 1.8 1.3

Nalco Reduce 49 44 12,564 6,898 7,841 9.9 14.7 2.0 3.2 24.6 15.3 1.1 1.0 4.3 6.8 1.4 1.3

NMDC Buy 160 198 63,396 11,209 12,525 78.4 78.3 18.5 20.6 8.6 7.8 2.1 1.8 27.0 24.6 3.7 3.1


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

January 18, 2013



Metals & Mining

SAIL Neutral 93 - 38,517 47,252 60,351 14.2 14.8 9.6 11.7 9.8 8.0 0.9 0.8 9.4 10.6 1.3 1.0

Sesa Goa Neutral 189 - 16,456 4,551 6,640 32.8 34.4 33.7 39.3 5.6 4.8 1.0 0.8 18.3 18.3 4.3 2.9

Sterlite Inds Neutral 116 - 38,967 43,185 45,442 23.3 23.7 16.8 17.9 6.9 6.5 0.8 0.7 11.6 11.2 0.9 0.8

Tata Steel Accumulate 419 463 40,655 145,725 154,108 8.3 9.5 22.0 44.5 19.0 9.4 0.9 0.8 4.9 9.3 0.6 0.5

Sarda Buy 129 153 462 1,442 1,494 17.6 17.3 27.2 28.7 4.7 4.5 0.5 0.5 11.5 11.0 0.7 0.6

Prakash Industries Buy 50 73 677 2,694 2,906 14.6 16.6 16.4 20.8 3.1 2.4 0.3 0.3 11.4 12.8 0.5 0.3Godawari Power and Ispat Buy 116 143 369 2,342 2,470 13.7 15.3 27.7 33.8 4.2 3.4 0.4 0.4 10.9 11.4 0.6 0.6

Oil & Gas

Cairn India Accumulate 338 382 64,606 17,567 17,643 76.2 72.3 61.1 56.8 5.5 6.0 1.1 1.0 22.0 17.5 2.8 2.4

GAIL Neutral 376 - 47,682 46,652 54,142 15.7 15.7 34.0 35.3 11.1 10.7 1.9 1.7 18.5 16.8 0.8 0.6

ONGC Neutral 315 - 269,070 147,139 154,821 33.9 33.7 30.7 32.3 10.3 9.7 1.8 1.6 18.3 17.2 1.5 1.4

Reliance Industries Neutral 890 - 291,321 362,700 380,031 7.9 8.0 60.0 63.3 14.8 14.1 1.4 1.3 11.1 10.6 0.8 0.7

Gujarat Gas* Neutral 308 - 3,944 3,128 3,707 13.2 11.7 22.8 23.5 13.5 13.1 4.1 3.6 33.2 29.2 1.1 0.9

Indraprastha Gas Neutral 260 - 3,641 3,213 3,643 23.3 23.5 24.3 25.7 10.7 10.1 2.4 2.1 25.0 22.1 1.2 1.1

Petronet LNG Accumulate 160 179 12,011 32,210 41,362 6.1 5.8 15.4 15.6 10.4 10.3 2.7 2.3 29.1 24.1 0.5 0.4Gujarat State Petronet Ltd. Neutral 77 - 4,327 1,079 1,034 91.8 91.9 8.8 8.4 8.8 9.2 1.5 1.3 17.9 15.0 3.7 3.8

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Buy 71 91 1,335 1,624 1,855 14.2 15.6 6.6 9.1 10.7 7.8 2.7 2.1 27.9 29.9 0.9 0.8

Aurobindo Pharma Accumulate 189 208 5,491 5,463 6,279 15.0 15.0 12.4 14.0 15.2 13.5 2.0 1.7 18.8 17.8 1.6 1.4

Aventis* Neutral 2,292 - 5,278 1,482 1,682 17.5 16.6 82.9 87.8 27.7 26.1 4.3 3.5 16.3 14.8 3.4 2.9

Cadila Healthcare Accumulate 878 926 17,973 6,148 7,386 18.6 19.6 32.7 44.8 26.8 19.6 5.9 4.7 23.7 26.6 3.3 2.7

Cipla Neutral 407 - 32,695 8,151 9,130 25.8 24.8 20.2 21.6 20.2 18.9 3.6 3.1 19.4 17.6 3.9 3.4

Dr Reddy's Neutral 1,937 - 32,890 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 23.2 20.9 4.8 4.0 22.4 20.8 3.3 3.0

Dishman Pharma Buy 109 145 883 1,280 1,536 20.2 20.2 10.4 14.5 10.5 7.6 0.9 0.8 8.7 11.0 1.4 1.2

GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,206 - 18,685 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 29.0 26.8 8.4 7.5 20.1 26.3 6.2 5.4

Indoco Remedies Buy 63 89 579 685 837 15.2 15.2 7.4 8.9 8.5 7.1 1.3 1.1 16.4 17.0 1.0 0.8

Ipca labs Neutral 511 - 6,438 2,850 3,474 21.0 21.0 29.9 37.3 17.1 13.7 4.1 3.2 26.7 26.4 2.4 2.0

Lupin Accumulate 586 655 26,212 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 26.1 31.1 22.5 18.8 5.2 4.2 25.8 24.7 3.2 2.6

Ranbaxy* Neutral 489 - 20,659 12,046 11,980 16.0 15.8 37.3 32.1 13.1 15.2 5.1 4.1 45.3 29.7 1.8 1.7

Sun Pharma Neutral 717 - 74,121 9,902 12,313 42.6 42.6 26.7 29.1 26.9 24.6 5.1 4.3 20.7 19.1 6.9 5.3

Power

GIPCL Accumulate 71 78 1,081 1,523 1,568 30.3 30.3 5.4 11.5 13.2 6.2 0.7 0.7 5.6 11.3 1.2 1.0


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

January 18, 2013



Power

NTPC Neutral 157 - 129,413 72,809 81,951 23.0 23.7 12.0 13.4 13.1 11.7 1.6 1.5 12.5 12.9 2.4 2.3

Real Estate

Anant Raj Neutral 92 - 2,713 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 10.9 7.2 0.7 0.6 6.3 8.9 5.4 4.0

DLF Neutral 257 - 43,715 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 26.9 19.2 1.7 1.6 6.4 8.7 6.8 5.6

HDIL Neutral 120 - 5,013 2,441 3,344 55.1 48.2 22.7 26.6 5.3 4.5 0.4 0.4 8.8 9.4 3.9 2.9

MLIFE Neutral 411 - 1,678 813 901 26.2 26.6 32.0 37.1 12.8 11.1 1.3 1.2 10.4 11.0 2.4 2.1

Telecom

Bharti Airtel Neutral 354 - 134,414 80,353 86,654 30.9 31.3 8.6 11.8 41.4 30.0 2.5 2.3 6.1 7.8 2.4 2.1

Idea Cellular Neutral 117 - 38,782 21,797 23,142 26.9 27.7 3.1 4.7 37.3 25.1 2.8 2.5 7.4 9.8 2.2 2.1

Rcom Neutral 83 - 17,121 21,032 22,084 31.8 30.2 2.9 4.0 28.3 20.8 0.5 0.5 1.6 2.2 2.5 2.2

zOthers

Abbott India Accumulate 1,472 1,590 3,128 1,629 1,886 11.8 13.3 60.8 79.5 24.2 18.5 5.0 4.2 22.0 24.4 1.7 1.4

Bajaj Electricals Accumulate 205 217 2,044 3,497 3,968 6.6 7.6 9.8 15.5 20.9 13.2 2.7 2.3 12.7 17.4 0.6 0.5

Cera Sanitaryware Accumulate 445 495 564 460 596 16.4 16.2 34.7 45.0 12.8 9.9 3.2 2.4 27.7 27.8 1.3 1.0

Cravatex Buy 417 545 108 272 308 7.2 7.3 37.5 45.4 11.1 9.2 2.6 2.1 23.7 22.7 0.5 0.5

CRISIL Neutral 1,023 - 7,184 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 29.8 25.6 13.5 10.8 50.9 46.9 6.8 5.7

Finolex Cables Accumulate 57 61 871 2,304 2,552 9.9 9.1 8.2 10.1 7.0 5.7 1.0 0.8 13.7 14.7 0.3 0.3

Force Motors Buy 467 537 608 2,318 2,700 5.0 5.7 45.0 67.0 10.4 7.0 0.5 0.5 5.0 7.0 0.2 0.2

Goodyear India Accumulate 329 360 758 1,494 1,607 6.4 7.8 23.9 33.0 13.7 10.0 2.2 1.9 16.5 20.1 0.3 0.2

Greenply Industries Sell 399 309 963 1,925 2,235 10.6 10.9 29.6 44.1 13.5 9.0 2.2 1.8 16.8 21.0 0.8 0.6

Hitachi Reduce 157 146 360 873 989 4.4 6.5 6.4 12.2 24.7 12.9 2.0 1.8 8.3 14.4 0.5 0.4

Honeywell Automation* Accumulate 2,583 2,842 2,284 1,809 2,117 5.5 7.5 84.9 135.3 30.4 19.1 3.3 2.8 11.3 16.0 1.1 1.0

Styrolution ABS India* Neutral 724 - 1,273 1,059 1,116 8.5 9.5 36.0 42.0 20.1 17.2 2.9 2.5 15.4 16.0 1.2 1.2

ITD Cementation Buy 248 334 286 1,455 1,630 12.4 12.6 29.8 40.5 8.3 6.1 0.7 0.6 8.2 9.8 0.6 0.6

Jyothy Laboratories Neutral 155 - 2,496 1,228 1,443 9.0 10.9 3.9 6.4 39.8 24.2 3.9 3.6 10.1 15.6 2.5 2.1

MCX Neutral 1,381 - 7,041 553 624 65.3 66.3 62.5 72.0 22.1 19.2 6.1 5.3 27.5 27.4 9.8 8.2

MRF Neutral 13,305 - 5,643 13,030 14,405 10.3 10.6 1,418.1 1,677.1 9.4 7.9 1.6 1.4 19.1 18.7 0.5 0.5

Page Industries Accumulate 3,397 3,602 3,788 836 1,023 20.2 20.6 105.6 133.4 32.2 25.5 16.4 11.5 59.3 53.2 4.6 3.7

Relaxo Footwears Accumulate 869 933 1,043 1,019 1,208 11.0 12.5 47.0 66.7 18.5 13.0 4.6 3.4 28.2 30.1 1.2 1.0

Sintex Industries Accumulate 71 79 2,112 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 5.2 4.5 0.7 0.6 12.9 13.2 0.8 0.7

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 296 366 278 1,043 1,149 12.3 12.9 65.7 73.3 4.5 4.0 0.9 0.7 21.0 19.6 0.5 0.5

S. Kumars Nationwide Neutral 14 - 413 6,765 7,393 18.1 18.0 6.4 7.5 2.2 1.9 0.1 0.1 6.1 6.7 0.7 0.6


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

January 18, 2013



zOthers

SpiceJet Reduce 45 43 2,163 5,720 6,599 5.3 6.8 3.6 5.4 12.4 8.3 17.9 5.7 - - 0.5 0.4

TAJ GVK Buy 70 108 438 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 8.9 7.7 1.2 1.1 13.9 14.4 1.8 1.5

Tata Sponge Iron Buy 307 384 473 750 803 18.6 18.4 65.4 69.1 4.7 4.4 0.7 0.6 16.5 15.3 0.2 0.1

TTK Healthcare Buy 551 643 428 374 425 7.9 9.5 24.1 32.7 22.9 16.8 19.7 22.5 1.0 0.8

TVS Srichakra Buy 258 322 198 1,461 1,625 6.9 8.2 24.6 53.7 10.5 4.8 1.3 1.1 12.9 24.9 0.4 0.3

United Spirits Neutral 1,758 - 22,991 10,289 11,421 12.8 12.8 26.0 45.3 67.6 38.8 3.1 2.9 5.8 7.6 2.6 2.4

Vesuvius India Neutral 345 - 699 560 611 16.1 17.0 24.7 28.8 14.0 12.0 2.1 1.8 15.8 16.2 1.2 1.0

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on January 17, 2013


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

January 18, 2013


Market OutlookJanuary 18, 2013

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