Market Sentiment Reports for the NCM in Q1 2012 - Proshare

8/2/2019 Market Sentiment Reports for the NCM in Q1 2012 - Proshare

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Market Sentiment Analysis Reports

Q1 2012

March 2012 to April 05, 2012

ISSN 1597 - 8842 Vol. 1 No.93


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Sentiment Analysis Reports Q1-2012

Copyright@ 2012 www.proshareng.com All Rights Reserved. Page2

CONTENTS

1.0 Sentiment Analysis Report W/E 090312 03

2.0 Sentiment Analysis Report W/E March 16, 2012 11

3.0 Sentiment Analysis Report W/E March 23, 2012 19

4.0 Sentiment Analysis Report - W/E March 30, 2012 27

5.0 Sentiment Analysis Report - W/E April 5, 2012 35

All documents obtained by the team were with, and through the consent of the authors mentioned therein and

other parties mentioned in the report. No document is referenced in this report which has been obtained through

any other means other than that stated here or/and could not be verified. 2012, Proshare Nigeria Limited, All RightsReserved.

ISSN 1597 - 8842 Vol. 1 No. 93

For enquiries on this report, kindly contact us at [email protected]


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Sentiment Analysis Report W/E 090312March 12, 2012/ Proshare Analyst Unit

Manage your risks or they will destroy you - W. B. Busin

Sentiments in the capital market are a powerful determinant of stock prices. And

price is technically regarded as the summation of sentiments of all marketparticipants. This report is being introduced basically to serve as a guide by

revealing market sentiments as regards to trend and direction of individual stock,so you wont be treading against market sentiments. In delivering this service, wehave employed technical analysis indicators which are strictly mathematical

equations without human influence to analyse stock trends. The objective is notto (de)market any stock/company but to technically show you, our esteemedsubscribers, the direction which markets are trending and the sectors/stocks thatare (un)favored by current market sentiments.

In the subsequent paragraphs, we shall be relating to you how market fared inthe previous week .i.e. the technical review and interpretation of general market

sentiment. In the same breadth, market movers i.e. volume drivers and gainersfor the week will be technically reviewed to reveal most possible emergingtrend/direction. For further emphasis, we included a due diligence table whichcontains basic financial ratios to help justify/validate your thought process. Pleasenote that the analysis is based on volume and price reaction during sessions andit does not suggest any recommendation to buy or sell as Proshare would not beresponsible for any investment decision taken without consultations with yourauthorised fund managers.

DiagnosisAnalysis of the market activity in the week ended March 9th 2012 technicallyrevealed an improved optimism in the investors trading pattern as against

moderate optimism observed in the previous weekly performances. The bullsappeared to be dominating market as reflected in the positive breadth, pessimismlevel appears low.


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Market sentiments during the week favoured blue chips in the Consumer Goods,Construction/Real Estate, Industrial Goods, Agriculture, ICT, Oil & Gasand Services sectors in that order which further revealed cautious tradingpattern in the week.

On the other hand, it was observed that market sentiments moved against thefollowing sectors - Financial Services, Conglomerates and Healthcare in thatorder as bearish sentiments remains strong in the sectors.

Stock Trend & DirectionHere, we review stocks that have sharpened market direction and performance inthe week, using technical tools like RSI, MACD, VOLUME, MFI, andCANDLESTICK, MOVING AVERAGES, BOLLIGER BANDS and

ACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTIONto reveal investors sentiments towards themarket movers.

THE BIG VOLUME

Transcorp Plc recorded significant volume in the week ended March 9th 2012.The recent huge bearish volume moved money out of the stock significantly.

The stock experienced an uptrend in the week but ended with negativesentiments as huge sell came on board on last trading session- this indicatesemerging downtrend, a kind of correction sets in significantly.

The moving average closed neutral in short term and bearish in long term. This

suggests the correction might be extended beyond short term period.

The last candlestick pattern was bearish engulfing which means the emergingsell tendency is significant. Meanwhile, the price had broken the upper Bollingerband which could be taken as overbought signal, buttressed by RSI returningfrom overbought region.

Also, the bearish engulfing pattern was buttressed with a significant bearishvolume, indicating huge sell off as volume closed above 15days moving averageby 718%.

Also, to buttress this further, the money flow index nosedived considerable far

below 30% region. This confirms the huge sell tendency towards the stock whilemost of the transactions in the week were distribution.


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Technical conclusion on sentiments: the emerging sentiments towards thestock appeared bearish as the stock is likely to experience a significant trendreversal in the coming periods.

The price position above upper Bollinger band signalled overbought outlook which

was confirmed by RSI that is already retracing, showing the sell has begun whilethe candlestick pattern revealed a strong bearish signal.

Meanwhile, significant distribution was observed in the week while money

appeared moving out of the stock considerably. The chart below shows MACD,candlestick, RSI and volume.

ETIPlc recorded significant volume in the week ended March 9 th 2012. There wasa strong buying tendency towards the stock.

The stock experienced a positive sentiment during the last session, trying tobreak 4months resistance of N11:00. There is strong tendency to break theresistance as the buying tendency closed stronger as revealed by the psychology

behind the candlestick pattern.

Meanwhile, the stock appeared bullish in short term and remained neutral in long

term as suggested by moving averages and buttressed by MACD.

Also, the last trading was accumulation buttressed by bullish volume, thoughclosed below 15days moving average and RSI is closed to overbought region.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The emerging sentiment is positive andthere is strong tendency that the stock will break 4months resistance. The chartbelow shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.


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THE GAINERS

CADBURY Plc topped gainers chart for the week ended March 9th 2012 with16.68%. The stock experienced a bullish week with very strong positive

sentiments and uptrend movement.

BUT the trend likely to reverse in the coming period, the huge profit taking andsell tendency was observed during last trading session. The volume closedbearish with significant surge above its 15days moving average while significantdistribution was observed during the last session.

The stock is very close to overbought region. The moving average closed

indecisive in short term and bearish in long term, though, money inflow indexmaintained northward trend.

Also, the candlestick pattern reveals an emerging bearish sentiment with growingsell pressure. This is likely to continue in the coming period.

Technical conclusion on sentiment: There is high tendency of emergingbearish sentiments towards the stock. The last sell tendency was significant asprofit taking commenced while the downtrend is very possible anytime soon. Thechart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.


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JBERGER Plc closed second on gainers chart for the week ended March 9th

2012 with 15.68%. The stock experienced a strong uptrend movement, afterthree flat positions in the early week.

The contracted Bollinger band revealed low volatility in the week. The uptrendmomentum was strong as the price closed above the upper Bollinger band, withup-gap price opening- indicating strong positive sentiments.

The uptrend may continue buttressed by upper Bollinger band moving upwardafter contraction while MACD also is above signal line, suggesting a bullishposture.

However, the volume trend showed that there was more of distribution thanaccumulation in the week. Though, money flow index maintains uptrend, showingmoney still moving into the stock. The last traded volume closed above 15days

moving average despite low activity.

In addition, the moving average is neutral in short term and bearish in long termas price closed above short term but below mid and long term moving averages.

Technical conclusion on sentiment: There was positive sentiments toward thestock, the money flow index buttressed this as money is flowing into the stock.Also, the position of price above upper Bollinger band indicates high momentum.

The uptrend might continue for few sessions.

However, the incoming outlook appeared mixed considering price moving average

and growing distribution pattern. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick,

RSI and volume.


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THE LOSERSUBA Plc topped the losers chart for the week ended March 9th 2012. The stockexperienced a correction during the week, losing -15.38% after 73% gainrecorded as at last week.

However, the correction appeared to be in short term as the selling (Profit taking)momentum appeared waned while the bulls are already stepping in as the lastvolume traded closed bullish above its 15days moving average. The last two

trading was accumulation not distribution.

This shows a trend reversal is about to emerge and the renewed bargaintendency is high while the stock remained bullish in short term as revealed by

short term moving average, trading above its mid-long term but below long term.

This was also buttressed by MACD still trading above signal line while the RSIshows the stock is not depressed i.e. not in oversold or overbought region.

Also, the candlestick pattern is a white inverted hammer which signifiesreversal anytime soon, though a next bullish opening will be required to confirmthis as money inflow index still maintains southward trend.

Technical conclusion on sentiment: The stock remained bullish in short termwhile there is high tendency for the stock to trend upward anytime soon as the

stock is trying to establish new support level at N2.56 (former resistance). Thechart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.


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ACCESS Bank Plc closed Second on losers chart for the week ended March 9th

2012. The stock experienced a correction during the week, losing -10.26% after51.69% gain recorded as at last week.

The correction has tendency to continue, though the bulls were trying to find

support around N6.96. However, the last candlestick pattern was black invertedhammer, which is a weak reversal signal, revealing buying pressure in thedowntrend but the strong sell tendency overwhelmed the bargain drive.

Meanwhile, the volume also closed bearish above its 15days moving average-indicating dominance of the bears as money inflow index maintained southwardtrend. An upper opening in the next session is required to confirm the

reversal.

More so, the money index inflow still maintains southward trend while last threetrading was distribution buttressed by MACD as the stock is trading below signal

line. Also, the moving average further reveals the stock to be bullish in long termand it closed indecisive in short term as price closed below its short term butabove its mid-long and long term moving averages. Though RSI shows the stockis not depressed .i.e. not in oversold or overbought region.

Technical conclusion on sentiment: The sentiment towards the stock is stillbearish as the reversal signal appeared weak while the bargain pressure in

downtrend was overwhelmed, indicating the stock is still within the ambit ofbears. Also, the short term moving average closed indecisive, MACD closed belowsignal while the distribution is still very alive with money inflow index trendingsouthward. Though, the reversal signal suggests possible turnaround while a

higher opening in next session is required to confirm this. The chart belowshows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.


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Sentiment Analysis Report W/E March 16, 2012March 18, 2012

Diagnosis (for the week ended 16th March 2012)

Analysis of the market activity in the week ended March 16th 2012 technically

revealed low optimism and high speculative propensity in the investors tradingpattern as against growing optimism and steady bargain trend observed in the

previous weekly performances.

In the week, bargain momentum declined significantly while market sentiment

appeared mixed, though the bears dominated the terrain as reflected in thenegative breadth while pessimism level gained more points.

Also, the indecisive posture of the market remained too high. This further shows

that large numbers of market participants are on sideline and appeared warywhich could not be isolated from the unstable trend in the market.

Nevertheless, the waning of profit taking tendency and speculative buyingwitnessed at the close of the week suggests better prospect in the new week.

Also, it was revealed that market sentiments during the week moved againt thelarge CAP and blue chips in the Consumer Goods, Services, Industrial Goods,


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Conglomerates, Financial Serives, Agriculture, Oil & Gas and Healthcaresectors in that order which further revealed the sectors which investors werepatronising in the week.

On the other hand, it was observed that market sentiments favoured thefollowing sectors Construction/Real Estate and ICT in that order as bargain

sentiments was strong in the sectors.

Stock Trend & Direction

Here, we shall review stocks that have shapened market direction andperformance in the week, using technical tools like RSI, MACD, VOLUME, MFI,CANDLESTICK, MOVING AVERAGES, BOLLIGER BANDS andACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTIONto reveal investors sentiments towards themarket movers.

THE BIG VOLUME

UBA closed positive for the week by +1.5% gain- a better performance to -11.4% loss recorded in the previous week. Though, still struggling to establish asupport level at N2.56 but the bearish pressure witnessed in the midweekweakened the support level as stock experienced low ofN2.47 in the week.

Subsequently, the stock maintained the support level as the stock closed higherat N2.68- this indicates emerging positive sentiments towards the stock aftermid-week sell pressure witnessed in the market generally as suggested by

candlestick pattern

The Moving Averages closed neutral and bearish in short and long term

respectively while MACD closed bearish below signal line.

The volume movement at the close of the week revealed that more ofaccumulation was done in the week while the volatility appeared waned.

Technical Conclusion on sentiments: There is tendency for sustainable

positive trend as the stock maintained support levels at N2.56 while thesentiments likely to remain positive, considering accumulation posture.


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Though, the moving averages and MACD suggest mixed outlook in short termwhile the slight reduction of Bollinger band reveals waning of volatility in the nearterm. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.

STERLING BANK closed with 13.8% gain in the week as against 9.0% gain

recorded last week- a better and improved bargain sentiment as the stockexperienced a bullish trading pattern in the week.

This candlestick pattern reveals a strong buying drive and positive sentimentstowards the stock. The moving averages revealed bullish trend in short term butstayed neutral in long term. Also MACD closed bullish.

However, the continuity of the bullish trend is in question, as the stock iscurrently at overbought region; the price hits the upper Bollinger band. Thismeans the stock is technically at its top as buttressed by RSI which furthermeans the trend can reverse any moment for now, though the bargain drivelikely to defy this, looking at the candlestick pattern and volume trend.

Also, the money flow index closed northward and similar trend observed in

volume trend as most transactions were accumulation while this also confirms thestrong positive sentiments.

Technical conclusion on the sentiments: The sentiment towards the stock is

positive and bullish in short term. The candlestick pattern revealed strong buyingsentiments in the week. On the other hand, the stock is at its top as revealed bymomentum indicator (RSI) and its price position at the tip of upper Bollinger band

confirms the overbought region. But the stock likely to maintain uptrend in next

few sessions as buying momentum closed stronger and firmed. The chart belowshows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.


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THE GAINERS

JBERGER experienced a bullish week to close with 27.3% gain against 15.7%gain recorded last trading week. The bargain drive remained strong as stock

maintained maximum opening position and closed with same position throughoutthe week- This indicates strong positive sentiments and strong bullish run. Thisbuttressed by MACD.

However, the RSI revealed the stock to be in overbought region buttressed byprice above the upper Bollinger band. Meanwhile, the moving averages closedbearish in both short and long term as the price closed below its short and long

term moving averages- this means price movement momentum is technicallyweak.

The volume trend revealed that more of accumulation was done in the week,

though the volume trade was significantly low- this shows that majority ofinvestors maintained hold position.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: There is strong positive sentimenttowards the stock and this is likely to be sustained as most investors maintainedhold positions on the stock.

The uptrend is not in doubt. Though, the stock appeared due for correction and itmight retrace anytime soon, considering the overbought region as revealed byRSI and Bollinger band while the uptrend movement appeared technically weakas suggested by moving averages which closed bearish in short and long term.The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.


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DANGFLOURexperienced positive sentiments and impressive rally in the weekto close with 11.4% against 6.0% gain recorded in the previous week. However,the stock retraced as the stock failed to break its 6weeks resistance at N4.90.

Though, the MACD still closed bullish buttressed by volume movement trendwhich closed positive and above its 15days moving average as more of

accumulation was done in the week.

However, the sentiments appeared mixed as the stock hit the upper Bollingerband while the moving average revealed a bearish trend in long term.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: the emerging sentiments appearedbearish as the stock failed to break its 6weeks resistance at N4.90 and retracedaccordingly after hitting above upper Bollinger band. The chart below showsMACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.


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THE LOSERSUBN experienced continued bearish sentiment to close with -22.2% loss asagainst -9.6% loss recorded in the previous week. The stock records new lowsthroughout the week. The RSI revealed that the stock is depressed buttressed bycontinued distribution witnessed in the week while money continued to flow out ofthe stock.

The technical conclusion on sentiments: there is a strong bearish sentimenttowards the stock while majority of sentiments indicators revealed a depressedposture of the stock. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI andvolume.


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MAYBAKERappeared depressed as revealed by RSI while MACD and the movingaverages suggest bearish trend in both short and long term.

Also, the stock records new lows throughout the week, recording maximum loss

for each session to close the week with -16.8% loss as against -9.1% lossrecorded in the previous week.

The stock experienced consistent distribution and continued cash outflow throughthe week. The trend likely to continue for a while - all things being equal.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The sentiment towards the stock is

bearish and likely to continue. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick,RSI and volume.


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Sentiment Analysis Report W/E March 23, 2012March 25, 2012

Diagnosis (for the week ended 23rd March 2012)

Analysis of the market activity in the week ended March 23rd 2012 technically

revealed improved optimism and high speculative propensity in the investorstrading pattern as against very low optimism and profit booking trend observed inthe previous week performance.

In the week, renewed and fresh bargain in some sectors observed while marketsentiment turned bullish, though speculative tendency dominated atmosphere asmarket swings in and out of green zone while optimism level gained more points.

Also, the indecisive posture of the market remained too high. This further showsthat large numbers of market participants are on sideline and appeared warywhich could not be isolated from the unstable trend in the market. However, asignificant decline was witnessed in their activities.

Nevertheless, the improved optimism and speculative buying witnessed during

the week suggests better prospect with likely volatility in the new week.

Also, it was revealed that market sentiments during the week favoured the large

CAP and blue chips in the Agriculture, Healthcare, Consumer Goods,Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Oil & Gas and ICT sectors in that orderwhich further revealed the sectors which investors were patronising in the week.

On the other hand, it was observed that market sentiments moved against thefollowing sectors - Construction/Real Estate, Services and FinancialServices in that order as sell sentiments was strong in the sectors.


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Stock Trend & Direction

Here, we shall review stocks that have shapened market direction andperformance in the week, using technical tools like RSI, MACD, VOLUME, MFI,CANDLESTICK, MOVING AVERAGES, BOLLIGER BANDS andACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTIONto reveal investors sentiments towards themarket movers.

THE BIG VOLUME

Zenith Bank experienced positive sentiments in the week to record a betterperformance of 5.3% gain against -4.1% loss recorded in the previous week.

The emerging sentiments appeared bullish while the moving averages closedbullish in short and mid-long term. The MACD is about to cross above signal line.

Also, the candlestick pattern is bullish engulfing pattern. However, the bargain

momentum appeared weak as suggested by volume movement trend to closebelow 15days moving average significantly. Nevertheless, this could suggest, holdposition of investors.

The money flow index moved northward, suggesting money is flowing into thestock while accumulation trend was observed during the week.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The emerging sentiments appearedpositive and bullish buttressed by bullish engulfing pattern from candlestick.Though, the bargain drive appeared weak, considering the low volume.

Nevertheless, the price movement is gaining uptrend momentum gradually toclose bullish in both short and long term as revealed by moving averages. Thechart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.


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UBAexperienced mixed sentiments in the week to record 0.7% gain - a weak

performance to 1.75% recorded in the previous week. The emerging sentimentsappeared bearish buttressed by MACD while moving averages closed neutral inboth short and long term period.

Meanwhile, the stock is likely to experience low volatility as Bollinger band is

getting narrower while the stock maintained its support level N2.56 by recordinglow of N2.58 in the week.

The RSI and moving averages revealed weak momentum in price movementwhile is likely to form a resistance at N2.87. The volume trend buttressed theweak momentum as the volume traded closed below 15days moving averages

significantly by 70%.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The emerging sentiments appearedbearish, buttressed by MACD. Though, strong accumulation was observed in the

last session. Volatility is waning so as price movement momentum while the stockhas formed a resistance at N2.87. The stock lacks strength to break the

resistance.


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THE GAINERS

FCMB had a strong bullish week to record 21.9% gain against -13.0% lossrecorded in the previous week. The emerging sentiment is positive and bullish.

MACD closed bullish but the moving averages closed neutral in both short andlong term period.

The candlestick pattern revealed strong buying and bullish tendency as the stockopened maximum and closed maximum.

More so, we observed accumulation in the week while money flow index closednorthward. Also, majority of investors maintained hold position, considering thevery low traded volume in the last session of the week.

However, the RSI showed the stock is nearing overbought region but the bullishtrend likely to sustain as the upper Bollinger band is opening northwards.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: the emerging sentiment is positive andappeared bullish. The northward opening of the upper Bollinger band suggestsstrong buying force while the bullish trend is likely to continue.

The candlestick pattern revealed very strong buying tendency while low volumetraded suggests hold position of most investors. The chart below shows MACD,

candlestick, RSI and volume.


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PAINTCOMexperienced a very strong bullish week and the stock has been in aconsistent bullish trend for the past 11days.

The emerging sentiments appeared positive and bullish while buying force

remained very strong, as suggested by candlestick pattern, considering themaximum gap-up opening and closing posture of the stock.

MACD closed bullish, moving averages appeared bullish in short term but closedneutral in long term.

However, the money flow index remained flat throughout the week while RSIsuggests the stock is due for serious correction anytime soon as the stock is farabove overbought region. Meanwhile, the volume trend appeared too low andclosed bearish most of the time in the week.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The emerging sentiments appearedbullish. Though, the stock is due for correction anytime soon, trading far aboveoverbought region as suggested by RSI. But the strong bargain force is likely to

defy this. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.


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THE LOSERSINTBREWexperienced bearish sentiments in the week to record -9.8% loss asagainst a no price movement experienced in the previous month. The emerging

sentiments towards the stock appeared bearish buttressed by MACD while themoving average closed neutral for both short and long term period.

However, the trend has slight possibility to reverse in short term as the price

closed below lower Bollinger band, moving closer to oversold region as revealedby RSI.

The volume trend is bearish and closed below 15days moving averagesignificantly while money flow index closed southward suggesting outflow of fundsfrom the stock.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The sentiment towards the stock isbearish and likely to continue for few sessions. However, there is slight possibilityof reversal as the stock is very close to oversold region. The chart below shows

MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.


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UBN experienced continued bearish sentiment to close with -22.3% loss asagainst -22.2% loss recorded in the previous week. The stock experienced huge

sell off, recording new lows throughout the week.

The RSI revealed that the stock is depressed, trading far below oversold region,buttressed by continued distribution as witnessed in the week while money

continued to flow out of the stock

Technical conclusion on sentiments: There is a strong bearish sentimenttowards the stock while majority of sentiment indicators revealed a depressedposture and strong bearish trend. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick,RSI and volume.


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Sentiment Analysis Report - W/E March 30, 2012April 02, 2012

Diagnosis (for the week ended 30th March 2012)

Analysis of the market activity in the week ended March 30th 2012 technically

revealed bearish sentiments and high pessimism in the investors trading patternas against improved optimism and high speculative propensity observed in theprevious week performance.

In the week, continued selling and weak bargain was observed across the sectorswhile market sentiment turned bearish. The sell pressure towards blue chipsdominated market atmosphere as investors remained pessimistic.

Also, the indecisive posture of the market remained too high. This further showsthat large numbers of market participants are on sideline and appeared warywhich could not be isolated from the unstable trend in the market. However, a

significant increase was witnessed in their activities.

Nevertheless, the depressed postures of equities observed across the sectorsmight incite speculative trading- a pointer to likely volatility in the new week.

Also, it was revealed that market sentiments during the week favoured themedium and small CAPs and blue chips in the Agriculture, Industrial Goods,

ICT, Services and Healthcare sectors in that order which further revealed thesectors which investors were patronising in the week.

On the other hand, it was observed that market sentiments moved against the

following sectors - Consumer Goods, Financial Services Construction/RealEstate, conglomerates and Oil & Gas sector in that order as sell sentimentswas strong in the sectors.


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Stock Trend & DirectionHere, we shall review stocks that have shapened market direction andperformance in the week, using technical tools like RSI, MACD, VOLUME, MFI,CANDLESTICK, MOVING AVERAGES, BOLLIGER BANDS and

ACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTIONto reveal investors sentiments towards themarket movers.

THE BIG VOLUME

DIAMOND BANK experienced mild and low bearish sentiments in the week torecord -4.0% loss against -2.4% loss recorded in the previous week.

The trend is on the slide but there was consistent accumulation throughout theweek. This shows there was fresh/new interest towards the stock as someinvestors were exiting their positions.

However, the money flow index actually showed that money is flowing out butsome investors are taking advantage of low price considerably as buttressed by

volume movement which stayed positive and closed significantly above 15daysvolume moving average by 558%.

Furthermore, the price moving average revealed weak bargain momentum as thetrend appeared bearish in both short and long term period. Also, the stockrecorded new low ofN2.28 during the session after 30 trading sessions. Though,the stock still closed at N2.38, above its 30days support of N2.40.

Nevertheless, The RSI also revealed that the stock is moving into oversold regionbuttressed by Bollinger bands as the stock traded below but later closed abovebottom Bollinger bands.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The emerging sentiments appearedmixed but it was established that there is strong accumulation tendency towardsthe stock. Also, there is strong indication that the stock might maintain its

support level at N2.40 while its depressed posture could trigger uptrend. Thechart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.


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ZENITH BANK experienced bearish sentiments in the week to record -9.5% loss

against +5.3% gain recorded in the previous week.

Analysis of the outlook revealed a downtrend after recording high ofN14.15 on5th March 2012 and still sliding towards its support level at N12.01.

In addition, the stock is in bearish mode as suggested by MACD but appearedbullish in long term as revealed by moving averages.

The candlestick pattern (Dragonfly Doji) is a reversal signal, this shows thedowntrend has tendency to reverse anytime soon as bargain hunters appearedtaking positions.

Also, the price position at the bottom Bollinger band suggests possible reversal aswell while the depressed posture of the price at the downtrend as revealed by RSIcould incite the renewed bargain interest.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: the emerging sentiments appearedpositive as trend reversal has high possibility while the candlestick pattern(Dragonfly Doji) revealed the weak postures of the bears during last session. Forcautious purpose, a higher opening in the next session would be required as aconfirmation. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.


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THE GAINERS

BAGCO experienced a bullish week to gain 25.9% gain in the week against -

4.7% loss recorded in the previous week.

The bargain trend revealed strong and new interest towards the stock,considering the candlestick pattern (white Marubuzo), the price momentum andthe large volume traded.

More so, the positive sentiment is likely to continue as MACD confirms the strong

bullish mode while the money flow index maintained strong northward trend.In addition, the price moving average also confirms price momentum to be bullishin short term while the stock maintains neutral position in long term.

However, the RSI reveals the stock to be in overbought region, which meansthe stock is due for short term correction anytime soon, buttressed by priceposition above upper Bollinger band. Though, the strong buying tendency

observed might postpone the short term correction beyond near term.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: There is strong buying tendency towardsthe stock which is likely to continue after the likely short term correction. The RSI

revealed overbought position of the stock. This suggests the stock is due for shortterm correction anytime soon. Though, the continuation of the bullish trend is notin doubt as money continued to flow into the stock while bulls are fully in controlof sentiments.The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.


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CAP experienced a bullish week to record 15.8% gain in the week against 0.8%gain recorded in the previous week.

The stock experienced a strong buying tendency as the stock opened withmaximum points throughout the week. Also, MACD revealed the stock to be in

bullish mode while the price moving averages also revealed a bullish trend inshort term period.

However, the RSI showed that the stock has been overbought significantly

buttressed by price position above upper Bollinger band.

To this regard, the emerging sentiments appeared mixed while the sustainability

of the bullish trend is low as volume movement revealed a bearish pattern andconsistent distribution in the week.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: the persistent distribution witnessed in

the week revealed low sustainability of the bullish trend while the bargainmomentum closed weak buttressed by the flat price position recorded in lasttrading session. Price correction may begin anytime soon. The chart below

shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.


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THE LOSERS

UBN experienced continued bearish sentiment to close with -22.1% loss asagainst -22.3% loss recorded in the previous week. The stock experienced hugesell off, recording new lows throughout the week. The RSI revealed that the stockis depressed, trading far below oversold region, buttressed by continued

distribution observed in the week while money continued to flow out of the stock

Technical conclusion on sentiments: There is a strong bearish sentimenttowards the stock while majority of sentiment indicators revealed a depressed

posture and strong bearish trend.The chart below shows MACD, candlestick,RSI and volume.


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TOTAL experienced bearish sentiments in the week to record -14.3% loss againstflat position recorded in the previous month.

There is a strong bearish sentiment towards the stock as the stock records newlow throughout the week.

The price is trading below a bottom Bollinger band- this shows the stock isdepressed confirming the strong bearish sentiments while MACD and RSIconfirmed the bearish mode and depressed posture.

The money flow index revealed outflow of funds from the stock while distributiondominated trading pattern during the week.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: There is a weak bargain tendency andstrong bearish sentiment towards the stock which might continue in the comingsessions. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.


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Sentiment Analysis Report - W/E April 5, 2012April 09, 2012

Diagnosis (for the week ended 5th April 2012)

Analysis of the market activity in the week ended April 5th 2012 technically

revealedpositive sentiments laced with speculative tendency and low optimismsin the investors trading pattern as against bearish and high pessimism observedin the previous week performance. a better performance as more ofaccumulation was done in the week.

In the week, more offresh moderate bargain sentiments was observed across theboard as market sentiment turned positive, though towards blue chips and value

stocks. However, continued mild sell tendency was experienced in few majorsectors as speculators seem to be in charge of market direction.

Also, there was a significant increase in optimistic activity of the market

against significant decline recorded last week. This buttressed the fresh moderatebargain sentiments observed in some sectors as noted above.

However, the indecisive posture of the market is still high, but reduced activitywas observed as sideline attendants appeared taking positions subtly.Notwithstanding, the low risk appetite and the current unstable trend remained apressing factor as sideline attendant is significant.

Nevertheless, the depressed postures of equity prices observed across the boardmight incite active speculative trading- a pointer to likely volatility in the newweek.

Also, it was technically revealed that market sentiments during the week

favoured blue chips of Medium and Large CAP categories in the Conglomerates,Financial Services Construction/Real Estate and Agriculture sectors in that


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order which further revealed the sectors which investors were patronising in theweek.

On the other hand, it was observed that market sentiments moved against thefollowing sectors Healthcare, Oil & Gas, Consumer Goods,Industrial Goodsand Services sectors in that order as sell sentiment was strong in the sectors.

Stock Trend & DirectionHere, we shall review stocks that have sharpened market direction andperformance in the week, using technical tools like RSI, MACD, VOLUME, MFI,CANDLESTICK, MOVING AVERAGES, BOLLIGER BANDS andACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTIONto reveal investors sentiments towards themarket movers.

THE BIG VOLUME

DIAMOND BANK experienced moderate bargain sentiments in the week torecord 6.7% gain against the -4.0% loss recorded in the previous week.

More so, the stock recorded positive sentiments in the recent time. Though, on a

weak bargain drive- The weak bargain trend suggests a cautious trading pattern.This was revealed in the volume trend, trading above its moving averageconsiderably on a positive and consistent growing momentum, indicatingcontinued accumulation throughout the week.

However, the candlestick pattern suggests possible reversal signal, though thereliability is low and this requires next lower opening position to be confirmed as

the price closed flat in the last session. Meanwhile, MACD revealed bullish modein the last session as the price closed above signal line.

Technically, a cautious approach is advised as the moving average revealed a

weak price moving momentum while the price closed neutral in short but stayedbearish in long term. The RSI buttressed the weak momentum as the trend

maintained horizontal trend.


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Technical conclusion on the sentiments: there was a continued positivesentiment towards the stock buttressed by bullish mode revealed by MACD whilethe 214% volume surge above volume moving average in the last sessionshowed increased interest towards the stock.

However, a cautious trading is advised as a weak reversal signal is formed

according to the candlestick pattern. If the stock opens southward in the nextsession, the reversal is certain. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick,RSI and volume

GUARANTY experienced a moderate bargain in the week to record 7.5% gainagainst -5.7% loss recorded in the previous week. The stock enjoyed a moderatebargain sentiment in the week and ended the week with speculative tradingpattern.

More so, the trend remains bullish as suggested by MACD while the stock istrading above signal line. Similarly, the price moving average revealed a bullishtrend in short and long term period.

However, the emerging sentiments appeared bearish, considering the candlestickpattern which suggests a trend reversal-(short term reversal), buttressed by thebearish day experienced in the last session.

Also, the money flow index closed southward in the last trading session asdistribution sets in buttressed by a bearish volume while the RSI showed a weakstrength.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The emerging sentiments appearedbearish. We advised a cautious bargain as short term price reversal is possible.

The last trading session was dominated by the bears according to the candlestickpattern while we observed distribution on the last trading day with corresponding

bearish volume.


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THE GAINERS

AGLEVENT experienced a strong bullish week to record 19.8% gain against -4.5% loss recorded in the previous week.

We observed a very strong uptrend momentum as the stock is trading outsideupper Bollinger bands. Though, the stock recorded more of bearish volume.

Also, we observed a fresh bullish interest towards the stock in the last tradingsession with a corresponding bullish volume buttressed by bullish mode revealedby MACD with sharp northward movement in money flow index

Notwithstanding, the stock is trading at overbought region as revealed by RSI,buttressed by the price position above upper Bollinger bands while the priceclosed neutral and bearish in short and long term respectively as revealed byprice moving averages.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The stock is due for correction,considering the overbought position of the stock as revealed by RSI. However,

the stock may sustain the uptrend, considering the strong bullish sentimentswitnessed in the week buttressed by huge bullish volume recorded in the lasttrading session.

We advise a cautious trading while a lower opening in the next session couldincite the price correction as noted above. The chart below shows MACD,candlestick, RSI and volume


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OKOMUOIL experienced a strong bullish week to record 19.6% gain against15.7% gain recorded in the previous week- an improved performance andsustained uptrend was observed.

A very strong bargain tendency was observed towards the stock in the week with

maximum opening and maximum close.

Also, the stock is in a strong bullish mode as revealed by MACD while the movingaverages revealed a bullish trend in both short and mid-long term period.

Though, there was a very low volume- this suggests hold position of investorsthroughout the session while there was strong money inflow towards the stock.

However, the emerging sentiments appeared bearish as the stock is overdue forcorrection, considering its overbought posture as revealed by RSI buttressed bythe price position above upper Bollinger bands.

More so, the last candlestick pattern was a reversal signal which suggests thebears are taking hold of the stock, buttressed with corresponding bearish volumewhich closed above volume moving average. A short term profit taking season islooming.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The emerging sentiments appeared

bearish, considering the overbought position of the stock while the profit takingtendency already started subtly in the last session as suggested by thecandlestick pattern buttressed by bearish volume which closed above movingaverage.

A short term price correction may commence anytime soon. The chart belowshows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume


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THE LOSERS

JAPAULOIL experienced a continued strong bearish week to record -16.4% lossagainst 10.7% loss recorded in the previous week- a sustained downtrend was

observed.

There is a strong bearish sentiment towards the stock as the price is losing

maximally at the moment while the stock broke its all time support of N0.61 torecord new low ofN0.56.

The MACD revealed a strong bearish mode while the price moving averagerevealed a bearish trend in both short and mid-long term.

More so, the stock is in a depressed state, trading within oversold regionbuttressed by price position below bottom Bollinger bands. The money flow index

closed far south while investors continued to sell out their positions as observedin the volume trend which remained bearish throughout the week.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The sentiment towards the stock is

bearish and likely to sustain the bearish status for awhile, considering money flowindex level at negative side.

Nevertheless, the depressed posture of the stock, trading at all time low couldincite trend reversal as the stock appeared bottomed out. The chart belowshows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume


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CADBURY experienced a bearish week with a loss of -14.2% against 14.9% gainrecorded in the previous week- a price correction in form of profit booking was

observed. A short term price correction was observed in the week, but theemerging sentiments appeared positive as moderate buying was recorded in thelast trading session.

Though, MACD still revealed a bearish mode with a similar outlook in volumetrend while the stock closed neutral in both short and mid-long term period asrevealed by moving averages.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: the emerging sentiments appearedpositive, though with low reliability as the volume traded closed bearish whichmeans sell tendency is still in control. However, the candlestick revealed weak

incoming bargain sentiment as the stock is likely to establish support basearound N10.85 while the money flow index closed positive. The chart belowshows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume


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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Olufemi Awoyemi, FCA Founder/CEO Proshare

Reshu Bagga, Technical Director/COO, Proshare

Mr. Taiwo Ologbon-Ori, Research & Analyst Unit, Proshare

Saheed Kiaribe, ResearchOther contributors acknowledged in the materials referenced.

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ISSN 1597 - 8842 Vol. 1 No. 93


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