Market situation
Cereals
DG AGRI C 4 Civil Dialogue Group on Animal Products
Pig Meat
28 October 2015
copyright_purestock_thinkstockphotos_72969376_low
Exchange Rates
2
Euro – Dollar exchange rate
3
01/07/20141.3688
1.1373
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
Spot, ECB reference
-16.9%
4
Euro – Argentine Peso and Brazilian Real
exchange rate
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
01/99 01/00 01/01 01/02 01/03 01/04 01/05 01/06 01/07 01/08 01/09 01/10 01/11 01/12 01/13 01/14 01/15
Exchange rate: ARG Peso/Euro, Spot, ECB reference and local market quotes
Exchange rate: BRA Real/Euro, Spot, ECB reference
20/10/2015: 1 EUR = 10.79 ARS = 4.39 BRL
Euro and Dollar – Russian Rouble exchange rate
5
RUB/USD
61.88RUB/EUR
70.22
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
01/13 03/13 05/13 07/13 09/13 11/13 01/14 03/14 05/14 07/14 09/14 11/14 01/15 03/15 05/15 07/15 09/15
Source: Thomson Reuters
Euro and Dollar - Ukraine Hryvnia exchange rate
6
UAH/USD
22.16UAH/EUR
24.05
7
12
17
22
27
32
37
01/13 03/13 05/13 07/13 09/13 11/13 01/14 03/14 05/14 07/14 09/14 11/14 01/15 03/15 05/15 07/15 09/15
Source: Thomson Reuters
7
Crude oil price ($/barrel)
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE ($ PER BARREL), 1 MONTH FORWARD (FOB): BRENT BLEND (NORTH SEA) - UK
20/10/2015: 49
Cereals World Forecasts
8
9
World cereals: IGC
World Production
World Consumption
373404
366 361337
407445 456 (447)
159 172140 125
99121
143 145 (139)
1802 1800
1750
1850
1795
2006 2017 1996 (1988)
17311769
1785
18531818
1936
1979 1986 (1985)
1400
1450
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(est.) 2014(fcst.) 2015(proj.)
Mio tMio t
Source: IGC September report
World
Ending Stocks
of which
8 major exporters
10
World wheat: IGC
World Production
World Consumption
172
199 193 192171
188202 211 (206)
69 77 74 6851 55
65 71 (68)
685679
653
695
655
714720
727 (720)
645
652
657
697
677 696
707
719 (716)
570
590
610
630
650
670
690
710
730
0
100
200
300
400
500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(est.) 2014(fcst.) 2015(proj.)
Mio tMio t
Source: IGC September report
World
Ending Stocks
of which
8 major exporters
11
IGC: Wheat production forecast
155
59 60
26 26 26
14 11
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
EU USA Russia Canada Australia Ukraine Kazakhstan Argentina
Mio t
All wheat
Source: IGC September report
2012 2013(est.) 2014(fcst.) 2015(proj.)
12
World maize: IGC World Production
World Consumption
150 148
131 130 131
178
203 199 (199)
43 4329 25 21
3144 41 (41)
800
820830
875
866
9971005
967 (968)
784
821
843875
863
950
980
970 (972)
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(est.) 2014(fcst.) 2015(proj.)
Mio t
Mio t
Source: IGC September report
World
Ending Stocks
of which US
13
IGC: maize production forecast
340
85
58
30 25
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
USA Brazil EU Argentine Ukraine
Mio t
Maize
Source: IGC September report
2012 2013(est.) 2014(fcst.) 2015(proj.)
14
World barley: IGC
World Production
World Consumption
34
40
27 2622
26 2630 (27)
13
18
108
5 6 6 6 (6)
155 150
122
134
129
145
141143 (140)
146145
136 135
133141 141 140 (139)
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(est.) 2014(fcst.) 2015(proj.)
Mio tMio t
Source: IGC September report
World
Ending Stocks
of which EU
Summary of IGC Report (24-09-2015) 2015/16 Estimates (1) - Total grains: due to higher wheat estimate production was raised for total grains, up by 8 Mt to 1,996 Mt (– 21 Mt or -1,0% from last year). - Wheat: projected output was increased again, by 7 Mt to 727 Mt, which would be the third consecutive record if realized. The increase is mainly due to higher EU estimate, which was raised by 3.6 Mt to 155.5 Mt, only fractionally below last year's record. The wheat crop projections were also increased for Russia (+ 1 Mt to 60 Mt) and Ukraine (+0.5 Mt to 25.5 Mt) as reported yields were better than anticipated. Harvest was also completed in China with production estimated at a record of 129 Mt (+1.5 Mt m/m; +2.2% y/y). Reflecting increased supply wheat consumption was raised by 3 Mt to 719 Mt, a new record. Also record for the ending stocks, which were increased by 5 Mt m/m to 211 Mt.
15
Summary of IGC Report (24-09-2015) 2015/16 Estimates (2) - Maize: harvest is now underway in the Northern hemisphere, while planting has started in South America. Production is now forecast at 967 Mt (- 1Mt m/m; - 38 Mt or – 3.8% y/y). The EU estimate was cut once again, down by 2.5 Mt to 57.6 Mt (-24% y/y) reflecting the effects of the drought. On the other hand small increases were made to the Chinese (+ 1Mt to a record of 227 Mt) and Ukrainian crops (+0.5 Mt to 24.5 Mt). Maize use estimate was reduced by 2 Mt to 970 Mt mainly due to lower feed use in the EU (-3 Mt to 50 Mt m/m; - 10 Mt y/y). World feed use is seen at 560 Mt (-1.8% y/y), which would account for 57% of overall consumption. Ending stocks are now put at 199 Mt (- 4 Mt y/y). - Barley: world production is now estimated at 143 Mt (+2% y/y) following small increases for EU (60 Mt), Russia (17.5 Mt), Ukraine (8.2 Mt) and Canada (7 Mt). World barley consumtpion was raised by 1 Mt again to 140 Mt (- 1 Mt y/y).
16
EU Balance Sheets and Forecasts
17
2014/2015 Marketing Year
Cereals
18
19
EU-28 Cereals balance sheet:Marketing year: 2014/2015
Common (Mio t)
wheat Barley Durum Maize Rye Sorghum Oats Triticale Others EUR 28
Beginning stocks (01.07.2014) 9,1 7,2 0,3 15,3 1,1 0,2 0,6 0,6 0,3 34,7
Usable product ion 148,7 60,2 7,6 77,9 8,7 0,8 7,7 13,0 4,5 329,2
Import 2,9 0,1 2,8 9,4 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,1 15,6
TOTAL AVAILABILITIES 160,7 67,5 10,7 102,6 9,9 1,1 8,3 13,6 5,0 379,4
USE
- Human 48,0 0,4 8,1 5,0 3,0 0,2 1,1 0,1 0,0 65,7
- Seed 4,7 2,3 0,4 0,5 0,5 0,0 0,5 0,5 0,3 9,6
- Industrial 10,5 9,3 0,1 10,0 1,5 0,0 0,1 0,6 0,1 32,1
of which alcohol 12,6
o.w. bioethanol/biofuel 4,4 0,7 4,7 0,8 0,5 11,0
- Animal feed 52,4 35,9 0,1 60,0 3,5 0,6 4,9 11,3 3,3 172,0
TOTAL USE 115,5 47,8 8,7 75,4 8,5 0,8 6,6 12,4 3,7 279,5
Losses (excl on-farm) 0,9 0,4 0,1 0,6 0,1 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,0 2,2
Solde disponible 44,3 19,3 2,0 26,6 1,3 0,3 1,7 1,1 1,2 97,6
Export 33,3 12,7 1,2 4,0 0,2 0,0 0,2 0,0 0,0 51,7
Ending stocks (30.06.2015) 11,0 6,6 0,8 22,6 1,1 0,3 1,4 1,1 1,2 46,1
Sep-15
EU BALANCE SHEET 2014/2015
• EU Production at record level (including soft wheat and maize)
• + Mainly yield effect
• + higher percentage of feed wheat
• Record EU trade for wheat, barley and maize
• + EU 1st world exporter of soft wheat
• Strong recovery in stocks
2015/2016 Marketing Year
Cereals
21
22
EU 28- 2015 Production Forecasts
EU EVOL CEREALS USABLE PRODUCTIONS
2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2015/2016 %change
Mio t Aug fcst Sept fcst 2014/2015
TOTAL 304,8 329,2 296,6 301,9 -8,3
Soft wheat 135,1 148,7 140,7 144,6 -2,8
Durum wheat 8,0 7,6 7,9 8,0 5,3
Barley 60,6 60,2 57,2 59,0 -2,0
Maize 66,8 77,9 58,7 58,4 -25,0
Rye 10,1 8,7 8,1 8,1 -6,9
Oats 8,3 7,7 7,5 7,4 -3,9
Sources : DG AGRI -C4
EU-28 Cereals balance sheet:Marketing year: 2015/2016
Common (Mio t)
wheat Barley Durum Maize Rye Sorghum Oats Triticale Others EUR 28
Beginning stocks (01.07.2015) 11,0 6,6 0,8 22,6 1,1 0,3 1,4 1,1 1,2 46,1
Usable product ion 144,6 59,0 8,0 58,4 8,1 0,6 7,4 11,5 4,3 301,9
Import 3,0 0,3 1,8 11,0 0,1 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,1 16,6
TOTAL AVAILABILITIES 158,6 65,8 10,6 92,1 9,3 1,2 8,9 12,6 5,6 364,6
USE
- Human 48,0 0,4 8,1 5,0 3,0 0,2 1,2 0,1 0,0 65,8
- Seed 4,7 2,3 0,4 0,5 0,5 0,0 0,5 0,5 0,3 9,6
- Industrial 10,6 9,3 0,1 10,0 1,5 0,0 0,1 0,6 0,1 32,3
of which alcohol 12,8
o.w. bioethanol/biofuel 4,5 0,7 4,7 0,8 0,5 11,2
- Animal feed 52,0 35,6 0,1 62,3 3,4 0,7 4,8 11,0 3,2 173,1
TOTAL USE 115,3 47,5 8,7 77,8 8,4 0,9 6,5 12,1 3,6 280,8
Losses (excl on-farm) 0,9 0,4 0,1 0,6 0,1 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,0 2,2
Solde disponible 42,4 17,9 1,9 13,7 0,9 0,3 2,3 0,4 1,9 81,6
Export 27,9 9,0 1,2 3,0 0,2 0,0 0,2 0,0 0,0 41,5
Ending stocks (31.08.2015) 127,4 52,5 7,5 16,1 7,8 0,8 7,8 10,4 4,8 235,0
Ending stocks (30.06.2016) 14,5 8,9 0,6 10,7 0,7 0,3 2,1 0,4 1,9 40,1
Sep-15
EU BALANCE SHEET 2015/2016
• Good level of harvest : higher percentage of milling wheat
• Lower feed grain
• Good quality
• Comfortable availabilities
• Slight increase in use for animal feed
• Decrease in stocks
Cereals Prices
25
26
World cereal prices ($/t)
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
$ /
to
nn
e
Wheat - Black Sea Milling $ 199
Wheat - US SRW Gulf $ 212
Wheat - FR Cl. 1 Rouen $ 192
Maize - FR Bordeaux $ 171
Maize - US 3YC Gulf $ 177
Barley-FR Dlvd Rouen feed $ 179
27
US CME SRW wheat futures
181
185
194
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
210
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
07/10/15 11/10/15 15/10/15 19/10/15
$/t
Daily
tra
ded v
olu
me (
1000 c
ontr
acts
of 136 to
nnes)
Chicago (CME) SRW futures
Last 14 days
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
07/13 01/14 07/14 01/15 07/15
$/t
Daily
tra
ded v
olu
me (
1000 c
ontr
acts
of 136 to
nnes)
Chicago (CME) SRW futures
Daily volume
DEC 2015 (R)
MAY 2016 (R)
DEC 2016 (R)
28
US KCBT HRW wheat futures
175
184
199
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
210
215
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
07/10/15 11/10/15 15/10/15 19/10/15
$/t
Daily
tra
ded v
olu
me (
1000 c
ontr
acts
of 136 to
nnes) Last 14 days
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
0
20
40
60
80
100
07/13 01/14 07/14 01/15 07/15
$/t
Daily
tra
ded v
olu
me (
1000 c
ontr
acts
of 136 to
nnes)
Kansas (KCBT) HRW Futures
Daily Volume
DEC 2015 (R)
MAY 2016 (R)
DEC 2016 (R)
29
EU Milling Wheat Futures
176
184
188
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
07/10/15 13/10/15 19/10/15
€/t
Daily
tra
ded v
olu
me (
1000 c
ontr
acts
of 50 to
nnes)
Last 14 days
160
180
200
220
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
07/13 01/14 07/14 01/15 07/15
€/t
Daily
tra
ded v
olu
me (
1000 c
ontr
acts
of 50 to
nnes)
Euronext - NYSE (MATIF Paris) milling w heat futures
Daily Volume
DEC 2015 (R)
MAY 2016 (R)
DEC 2016 (R)
30
World maize export prices (fob, US$ per tonne)
125
175
225
275
325
qu
ota
tio
n in
€o
r $
/ t
on
ne
Black Sea Feed - $ 167
US 3YC Gulf - $ 177
AR Feed Up River - $ 162
BR Feed Paranagua - $ 165
31
CME maize futures
148
155
159
145
150
155
160
165
170
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
07/10/15 11/10/15 15/10/15 19/10/15
$/t
Daily
tra
ded v
olu
me (
1000 c
ontr
acts
of 127 to
nnes)
Chicago (CME) Maize futures
Last 14 days
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
0
160
320
480
640
800
960
11/12 05/13 11/13 05/14 11/14 05/15
$/t
Daily
tra
ded v
olu
me (
1000 c
ontr
acts
of 127 to
nnes)
Chicago (CME) Maize futures
Daily volume
DEC 2015 (R)
MAY 2016 (R)
DEC 2016 (R)
32
EU maize futures
161
174
180
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
07/10/15 13/10/15 19/10/15
€/t
Daily
tra
ded v
olu
me (
1000 c
ontr
acts
of 50 to
nnes)
Euronext - NYSE (MATIF, Paris) maize futures
Last 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 daysLast 14 days
120
140
160
180
200
220
0
2
4
6
8
10
11/13 02/14 05/14 08/14 11/14 02/15 05/15 08/15
€/t
Daily
tra
ded v
olu
me (
1000 c
ontr
acts
of 50 to
nnes)
Euronext - NYSE (MATIF, Paris) maize futures
Daily Volume
NOV 2015 (R)
MAR 2016 (R)
NOV 2016 (R)
EU Maize import commitments 2015/16
33
Weekly volume(current MY)
2014/2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53
To
tal f
or
MY
-m
io to
nnes
We
ek
ly v
olu
me -
' 000 to
nn
es
Week
2015/16 - 2.3 mio t. Trim avg 5MY
34
● Imports: 4.2 mio t (4.5 mio t last year; 2.5 mio t two years ago) 1268 thousand tons soft wheat 425 thousand tons durum wheat 2.3 mio t maize 213 000 tons barley
● Exports: 12 mio t (12.4 mio t last year; 13.8 mio t two years ago) 6.9 mio t soft wheat 4.1 mio t barley 406 thousand tons durum wheat 527 thousand tons maize
● So far, the EU is a net cereal exporter of 7.8 mio t,
against 7.9 mio t last year and 11.3 mio t two years ago.
EU Commitments 2015/2016 (16 weeks)
Oilseeds
Forecasts and prices
35
36
World soya: USDA
World Production
World Consumption
43
60
70
5457
63
78
85 (85)
4 4 6 5 4 35
12 (12)
212
261 264
240
269
283
319 320 (320)
221
238
252
258
261275
298310 (310)
40
95
150
206
261
316
0
25
50
75
100
125
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 est. 2015 proj.
Mio t
Mio t
Source: USDA October report
World
Ending Stocks
of which US
37
USDA: soybeans production forecast
106100
57
12
20
20
40
60
80
100
120
USA Brazil Argentine China EU
Mio t
Soybeans
Source: USDA October report
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 est. 2015 proj.
38
EU 28- 2015 Production Forecasts
EU EVOL Oilseeds and Protein crops Production
2013 2014 2015 2015 % change
Mio t Aug fcst Sept fcst 2014/2015
Rapeseed 20,90 24,28 20,81 21,08 -13,2
Sunflower 9,06 9,07 7,70 7,67 -15,5
Soja 1,07 1,85 1,97 1,97 6,6
Linseed 0,14 0,14 0,13 0,13 -11,9
TOTAL 31,17 35,35 30,60 30,84 -12,7
Field peas 1,23 1,28 1,58 1,61 25,8
Broad beans 1,02 1,29 1,20 1,20 -6,6
Sweet lupins 0,13 0,13 0,14 0,14 8,5
TOTAL 2,38 2,70 2,92 2,95 9,5
Sources : DG AGRI - C4
Soybeans export prices $/ton (fob)
39
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
05/2014 07/2014 09/2014 11/2014 01/2015 03/2015 05/2015 07/2015 09/2015
$ /
to
nn
e
US 2Y Gulf - $ 363
Ukraine - $ 358
Brazil Paranagua - $ 366
Argentina Up River - $ 359
40
CME soya futures
329
331
332
332
320
324
328
332
336
340
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
07/10/15 14/10/15
$/t
Da
ily
tra
de
d v
olu
me
(1
00
0 c
on
tra
cts
of
13
6 t)
Chicago (CME) soybeans futures
Last 14 days
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
11/11 05/12 11/12 05/13 11/13 05/14 11/14 05/15
$/t
Daily
tra
ded v
olu
me (
1000 c
ontr
acts
of 136 t)
Chicago (CME) soybeans futures
Daily volume
NOV 2015 (R)
JAN 2016 (R)
MAR 2016 (R)
NOV 2016 (R)
41
NYSE Euronext rapeseed futures
379
355358
345
350
355
360
365
370
375
380
385
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
07/10/15 13/10/15 19/10/15
€/t
Daily
tra
ded v
olu
me (
1000 c
ontr
acts
of 50 t)
Paris (NYSE) rapeseed futures
Last 14 days
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
0
5
10
15
20
25
05/13 08/13 11/13 02/14 05/14 08/14 11/14 02/15 05/15 08/15
€/t
Daily
tra
ded v
olu
me (
1000 c
ontr
acts
of 50 t)
Paris (NYSE) rapeseed futures
Daily Volume
NOV 2015 (R)
AUG 2016 (R)
NOV 2016 (R)
Conclusions
- 2015/16 crop year: 3rd consecutive record wheat crop
soybeans also record
Smaller maize crop, however ample supply due to stocks
- Cereals & soybean prices likely to remain low
- Some switch to feed wheat from maize
- Strong US dollar hampers competitiveness for US exports
- RUS/UKR possibly record wheat exports
42
Thank you for your attention!
Balance sheet updates & market presentation
available:
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cereals/balance-sheets/index_en.htm
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