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Market situation in the olive oil and table olives sectors Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Markets - Arable crops and olive oil - 26 March 2020 AGRI G.4
Market situation in the olive oil and table olives sectors
Committee for the Common Organisation
of the Agricultural Markets
- Arable crops and olive oil -
26 March 2020
AGRI G.4
PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION & ENDING STOCKS
World production above average for three consecutive marketing years…
1 435 2 324 1 752 2 188 2 264 1 932
1 024
853
810
1 185 9551 133
2 458
3 177
2 562
3 3733 219
3 065
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 (fin.) 2018/19 (prov.) 2019/20 (for.)
WORLD OLIVE OIL PRODUCTION
non-EU EU WORLD Average world 2014/15-2018/19
Source: International Olive Council, MS declarations. Note: excl. pomace oil.
thousand tonnes
WORLD -3% WORLD 6%
EU -12% EU 0%
non-EU 19% non-EU 17%
2019/20 vs. 2018/19 2019/20 vs. 5-y average
…resulting from lower production in the EU...
EU production in 2019/20 expected in line with 5-year average
842 1 403 1 291 1 262 1 790 1 160
222
475
182429
174
359300
320
195
346
185
265
61
109
69
135100
130
1 435
2 324
1 752
2 1882 264
1 932
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 (fin.) 2018/19 (prov.) 2019/20 (for.)
EU OLIVE OIL PRODUCTION
Other EU (+18%)
Portugal (+30%)
Greece (+43%)
Italy (+107%)
Spain (-35%)
EU (-15%)
Average 2014/15-2018/19
Source: International Olive Council, MS declarations. Note: excl. pomace oil.
thousand tonnes
…compensated by higher production in non-EU.
Source: International Olive Council. Note: excl. pomace oil.
340140 100
325140
300
160
150 178
263
194
225
120
130 110
140
200
145105
110 110
100
100
120
299
323 312
357
322343
1 024
853 810
1 185
955
1 133
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 (fin.) 2018/19(prov.)
2019/20 (for.)
NON-EU OLIVE OIL PRODUCTIONOthers non-EU (7%)
Syrian ArabRepublic (+20%)
Morocco (-28%)
Turkey (+16%)
Tunisia (+114%)
Total non-EU (19%)
Average 2014/15-2018/19
thousand tonnes
Non-EU production in 2019/20 expected 17% above 5-year average
96% of EU estimated production already harvested
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
EU OLIVE OIL MONTHLY PRODUCTION, 2019/20
ES (95.1%)
IT (98.9%)
EL (95.5%)
PT (100.0%)
Others
tonnes
Source: MS declarations (15/03/2020).
High EU availabilities in 2019/20
2 509
2 991
2 291
2 633
2 276
2 691
2 9392 855
2 112
2 326
2 1132 234
1 960
2 159 2 152 2 165
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 (fin.) 2017/18(prov.)
2018/19 (est.)2019/20 (for.)
EU+UK OLIVE OIL AVAILABILITIES AND USES
Availabilities (stocks+prod.+ import extra EU) Uses (consumption+exports extra EU)
thousand tonnes
EU+UK EXTRA-TRADE
Imports picking up, driven by high availability in Tunisia…
volume (t) share (%)volume (t)share (%)volume (t)share (%)volume (t)share (%)volume (t) share (%) volume (t) share (%) volume (t) share (%) vs. 2018/19 (%)
Tunisia 30 830 71 33 050 64 34 779 75 39 898 81 14.7
Argentina 3 085 7 5 113 10 1 999 4 2 396 5 19.9
Syria 2 990 7 7 200 14 3 112 7 628 1 -79.8
Morocco 2 589 6 1 280 2 3 626 8 2 604 5 -28.2
Turkey 1 473 3 3 612 7 1 807 4 1 777 4 -1.6
Australia 767 2 202 0 0 0 1 0 :
Chile 628 1 590 1 166 0 13 0 -92.5
Others 857 2 855 2 729 2 1 824 4 150.1
Extra EU 43 219 51 902 46 219 49 141 6.3
EU+UK imports of olive oil from third countries (October - January)
2019/20Trade partner
Source: COMEXT. Period: October - January. CN codes: 1509 (all stat. regimes).
2018/192014/152016/17 2017/182015/162014/19 (5-year average)
…driven by higher imports of EVOO and lower imports of LOO and OPO.
Reminder: Change of CN codes as of 1.1.2017: 15091090 becomes
15091020 (extra virgin)
15091080 (virgin other than lampante)
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
Oct. 15 Oct. 16 Oct. 17 Oct. 18 Oct. 19
EXTRA-EU OLIVE OIL IMPORTS, PER CATEGORY
Olive-pomace oil (CN 1510) Olive oil (CN 15099000)Virgin lampante (CN 15091010) Extra virgin + virgin other than lampante (CN 15091090)Virgin other than lampante (CN 15091080) Extra virgin (CN 15091020)Average previous 3 marketing years
tonnes
Higher imports in the first four months of 2019/20
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
Oct. 14 Oct. 15 Oct. 16 Oct. 17 Oct. 18 Oct. 19
IMPORTS OF VIRGIN OLIVE OIL FROM TUNISIA
quota + out of quota Inward processing
Average previous 3 MY (quota + out of quota) Average previous 3 MY (inward processing)
tonnes183 846 65 515 56 290 121 666 106 133 39 478
Source: Eurostat COMEXT.
Imports from TN under zero duty quota fully allocated
Note: The United Kingdom is no longer a Member State of the European Union, however until the end of the transition period
it is still part of the EU Customs Union. Taxud EU trade data therefore also include the UK and it is labelled as EU+UK.
Imports from TU at stable pace
Exports increased by 10%
volume (t) share (%)volume (t)share (%)volume (t)share (%)volume (t)share (%)volume (t) share (%) volume (t) share (%) volume (t) share (%) vs. 2018/19 (%)
United States 67 020 37 60 331 33 71 449 36 66 823 30 -6.5
Brazil 19 350 11 25 555 14 22 835 11 34 592 16 51.5
Japan 15 708 9 15 377 9 19 043 9 22 082 10 16.0
China 12 931 7 14 830 8 16 328 8 16 649 8 2.0
Canada 8 665 5 8 707 5 9 156 5 10 610 5 15.9
Australia 7 911 4 7 138 4 8 024 4 9 894 4 23.3
Switzerland 4 770 3 4 562 3 4 928 2 5 069 2 2.9
Others 45 042 25 43 798 24 49 116 24 54 426 25 10.8
Extra EU 181 397 180 300 200 879 220 146 9.6
2015/162016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Source: COMEXT. Period: October - January. CN codes: 1509 (all stat. regimes).
2014/19 (5-year average)Trade partner
2019/202014/15
EU+UK exports of olive oil to third countries (October - January)
Increased exports in all main categories
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
Oct. 15 Oct. 16 Oct. 17 Oct. 18 Oct. 19
OLIVE OIL EXPORTS OUTSIDE THE EU, PER CATEGORY
Virgin lampante (CN 15091010) Extra virgin + virgin other than lampante (CN 15091090)Extra virgin (CN 15091020) Virgin other than lampante (CN 15091080)Olive oil (CN 15099000) Olive-pomace oil (CN 1510)Average previous 3 marketing years
tonnes
Reminder: Change of CN codes as of 1.1.2017: 15091090 becomes
15091020 (extra virgin)
15091080 (virgin other than lampante)
U.S. stockpiling partly absorbed since Nov 2019
Source: United States Department of Agriculture (Foreign Agricultural Service), IHS Markit/GTA.
EU+UK INTRA-TRADE
Intra-trade increased in 2019/20-Q1(1000 tonnes)
TOTAL
Trade partner volume share (%) volume share (%) volume share (%) volume share (%) volume share (%) volume share (%) volume
Spain 1.8 6.2 1.4 4.6 33.4 71.5 0.2 10.1 0.1 1.6 36.9
Italy 84.3 49.7 22.5 74.1 11.3 24.2 0.0 1.3 0.2 4.5 118.4
Greece 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.3
Portugal 38.4 22.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 38.4
France 17.3 10.2 5.8 20.2 0.4 1.2 1.0 2.0 0.5 11.6 24.9
UK 11.2 6.6 3.3 11.4 0.4 1.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2 0.3 5.7 15.2
Germany 4.8 2.9 10.1 34.8 2.6 8.6 0.1 0.2 0.8 38.9 0.5 11.9 18.9
Netherlands 3.8 2.2 1.1 4.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.6 12.1 5.8
Others 9.6 5.7 6.8 23.4 2.9 9.5 0.8 1.7 0.9 47.1 2.4 52.1 23.4
Total 169.6 100 28.9 100 30.4 100 46.7 100 1.9 100 4.6 100 282.2
Total same period
previous campaign143.0 26.3 38.3 35.5 1.5 4.6 249.2
Difference (y-o-y%) 18.6 9.8 -20.7 31.5 28.1 1.5 13.2
EU intra-trade of olive oil (CN 1509) (October 2019 - December 2019)
Spain Greece
Period: 01/10/2019 - 31/12/2019. Olive oil excl. pomace oil. Source: COMEXT. All stat. regimes.
Origin (declared exports)
Italy Portugal France Others
EU PRICES(until 19.02.2020)
EVOO prices stabilized recently…
…VOO prices picked-up in ES, stable in IT…
…LOO prices picked-up recently in ES and IT.
TABLE OLIVES
World production above average in 2019/20
868 887 842 913 822 809
1 713 1 690 2 0582 368
1 7512 114
2 581 2 5772 900
3 280
2 5732 923
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18(prov.)
2018/19(est.)
2019/20(for.)
WORLD TABLE OLIVE PRODUCTION
non-EU EU WORLD Average world 2014/15-2018/19Source: International Olive Council.
thousand tonnes
WORLD 14% WORLD 5%
EU -2% EU -7%
non-EU 21% non-EU 10%
2019/20 vs. 2018/19 2019/20 vs. 5-y average
2019/20: lower production in ES, compensated by EL
556 601 596 562 588500
249 194 180 261 167207
868 887842
913822 809
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18(prov.)
2018/19(est.)
2019/20(for.)
EU TABLE OLIVE PRODUCTION
Other EU Portugal Italy Greece Spain EU EU average 2014/15-2018/19Source: International Olive Council.
thousand tonnes
Spain -15% Spain -14%
Greece 24% Greece -2%
Italy 85% Italy 50%
Portugal 0% Portugal 5%
2019/20 vs. 2018/19 2019/20 vs. 5-y average
Improved trade balance in the first five months of 2019/20
54
48
52
58 60 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
Extra-EU imports of table olives (Sep.-Jan.)
Morocco Turkey Egypt Others Extra EU
thousand tonnes
164
140
169 170 169
185
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
Extra-EU exports of table olives (Sep.-Jan.)
United States Canada Russia Saudi Arabia
Australia Others Extra EU
thousand tonnes
Source: Eurostat COMEXT.
U.S. imports of ES table olives below average in January
Source: United States Department of Agriculture (Foreign Agricultural Service), IHS Markit/GTA.
In scope of AD&CD duties: 2005700230, 2005700260, 2005700430, 2005700460, 2005702300, 2005705030, 2005705060, 2005706020, 2005706030, 2005706050, 2005706060,
2005706070, 2005707000, 2005707500, 2005707510, 2005707515, 2005707520, 2005707525.
In scope of large aircraft sanctions: 20057012, 20057025, 07112018, 07112028, 07112038, 07112040, 20057008, 20057016, 20057023.
Thank you
© European Union 2020
Note: The United Kingdom is no longer a Member State of the European Union, however until the end of the transition period
it is still part of the EU Customs Union. Taxud EU trade data therefore also include the UK and it is labelled as EU+UK.
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Market informationhttps://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/plants-and-plant-products/plant-products/olive-oil
Agri-Food Data Portalhttps://agridata.ec.europa.eu/extensions/DataPortal/home.html
