Market situation in the Olive oil

and Table olives sectors

Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural

Markets – Arable crops and olive oil

26 April 2018

Laurent Mercier , AGRI G.4

2

OLIVE OIL PRODUCTION,

CONSUMPTION & ENDING

STOCKS

3

Source: International Olive Council & MS declarations

2017/18 vs 2016/17 ● WORLD +27% ● EU +22% ● non-EU +38%

2.402

3.252

2.458

3.177

2.541

3.222

1.462

2.483

1.435

2.324

1.750

2.133

936769

1.024853 792

1.089

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 (prov.) 2017/18 (est.)

OLIVE OIL PRODUCTION (1000t)WORLDEUnon-EUAverage world 2012/13-2016/17

excl. pomace oil;

4

excl. pomace oil Source: International Olive Council; MS declarations

EU production in 2017/18 13% above 5-year average

618

1.782

842

1.403 1.291 1.250

416 464222

475

182425

358

132300 320 195

320

59 92 61 10969

12511 14 9 17 13 13

1.462

2.483

1.435

2.324

1.750

2.133

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 (prov.) 2017/18 (est.)

EU OLIVE OIL PRODUCTION (1000t)excl.pomace oil

variation 2017/18 vs 2016/17

Spain (-3%)Italy (+133%)Greece (+64%)Portugal (+80%)Others EU (+7%)EU total (+22%)Average 2012/13-2016/17

excl. pomace oil;

5

Source: International Olive Council excl. pomace oil

Non-EU production in 2017/18 25% above 5-year average

6

2.902 3.061 3.086 2.989 3.076 2.916 2.980 2.739

2.988

1.830 1.862 1.787 1.620 1.726 1.605 1.660 1.399 1.583

-

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000Olive oil consumption

(1000t)

World EU

IOC marketing years Oct-Sept; excl. pomace olive oil;

7

455

631

211

432

320

421

0

200

400

600

800

30.9.2013 30.9.2014 30.9.2015 30.9.2016 30.9.2017 (prov.) 30.9.2018 (est.)

EU olive oil ending stocks (1000t)EU ending stocks

Average last 5 years

2509

2991

2291

2633

2273

2614

2112

2326

21132234

1955

2163

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 (prov.) 2017/18 (est.)

EU olive oil availabilities and uses (1000t)Availabilities (stocks+prod.+ import extra EU)

Average availabilities last 5 years

Uses (consumption+exports extra EU)

Average uses last 5 years

Source: MS declarations, IOC, Eurostat

8

EU OLIVE OIL EXTRA-TRADE

9

2016/17 Oct 16-Feb17

tonnes share tonnes share tonnes share tonnes %

Tunisia 75.988 69% 65.251 59% 49.220 60% 33.185 48%

Morocco 11.513 10% 17.539 16% 8.185 10% 11.084 -26%

Turkey 594 1% 5.781 5% 7.130 9% 1.456 390%

Argentina 9.201 8% 4.742 4% 5.337 6% 1.018 424%

Others 12.867 12% 17.829 16% 12.673 15% 6.075 109%

EXTRA EU 110.163 111.142 82.546 52.819 56%

Source: Eurostat/Comext

Periods October - September

CN codes 1509 & 1510, all stat. regimes

EU imports of olive oil (t)

change Oct 17-Feb18 vs

Oct 16-Feb17Oct 17-Feb182015/16ORIGIN

10

Source: Eurostat/Comext©

Reminder: Change of CN codes as of 1.1.2017: 15091090 becomes

15091020 (extra virgin)

15091080 (virgin other than lampante)

-

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

Extra EU olive oil IMPORTS per CATEGORY (t)Pomace oil (CN 1510)"Olive oil" (CN 15099000)Virgin lampante (CN 15091010)Virgin other than lampante (CN 15091080)Extra virgin (CN15091020)Extra virgin + virgin other than lampante (CN 15091090)Average previous 3 marketing years

11

Inward processing (IP) – a relief from customs duty and import VAT on goods that are imported from outside the EU to be processed, and then exported outside the EU or released for free circulation in the EU. Excise duty is also suspended when goods are entered into IP.

-

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

IMPORTS of olive oil from TUNISIA (t)Inward processingQuota + out of quotaAverage 3 previous marketing years (inward processing)Average 3 previous marketing years (quota+out of quota)

Source: Eurostat/Comext©; CN 150910

12

13

18.902(33%)

0,0

5.000,0

10.000,0

15.000,0

20.000,0

25.000,0

30.000,0

35.000,0

40.000,0

45.000,0

50.000,0

55.000,0

60.000,0

ton

s

Olive oil imports from Tunisia (Bilateral quota of 56700t, order no. 09.4032)

cumul quantities Bilateral quota (56700t)

Source: DG Taxud Surveillance; situation 12.03.2018

14

Oct 16-Feb17

change Oct 17-Feb 18

vs Oct 16-Feb17

tonnes share tonnes share tonnes share tonnes %

USA 248.018 38% 236.944 37% 79.848 32% 95.404 -16%

Brazil 46.212 7% 45.964 7% 31.503 13% 19.705 60%

Japan 53.708 8% 51.940 8% 19.381 8% 20.636 -6%

China 43.955 7% 38.815 6% 16.490 7% 15.809 4%

Canada 29.266 4% 27.828 4% 12.273 5% 12.248 0%

Australia 26.288 4% 26.907 4% 9.236 4% 12.945 -29%

Russia 16.581 3% 16.613 3% 6.977 3% 6.623 5%

Others 191.142 29% 188.926 30% 76.103 30% 78.815 -3%

EXTRA EU 655.170 633.938 251.810 262.183 -4%

Source: Eurostat/Comext

Periods October - September

CN codes 1509 & 1510, all stat. regimes

EU exports of olive oil (t)

2016/17 DESTINATION Oct 17-Feb182015/16

15

Source: Eurostat/Comext©

-

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

Extra EU olive oil EXPORTS per CATEGORY (t)Pomace oil (CN 1510)"Olive oil" (CN 15099000)Virgin lampante (CN 15091010)Virgin other than lampante (CN 15091080)Extra virgin (CN 15091020)Extra virgin + virgin other than lampante (CN 15091090)Average previous 3 marketing years

16

OLIVE OIL INTRA-TRADE

Oct 2017-Jan 2018 vs. Oct 2016-Jan 2017

17

Olive oil intra trade 2017/18* (CN 1509)

(thousands tons)

Origin (declared EXPORTS) TOTAL

volume volume volume volume volume volume total CN 1509

Spain 4,3 12,8% 2,1 3,6% 26,1 64,8% 0,0 1,6% 0,1 1,7% 32,6

Italy 77,9 44,6% 46,8 81,8% 11,3 28,0% 0,1 3,8% 0,3 4,6% 136,3

Greece 0,3 0,2% 0,1 0,4% 0,0 0,0% 0,0 0,0% 0,0 0,2% 0,5

Portugal 33,3 19,0% 0,0 0,0% - 0,0% 0,0 0,2% 0,0 0,1% 33,3

France 26,2 15,0% 6,6 19,6% 0,5 0,9% 1,1 2,8% 0,5 8,8% 34,9

UK 15,3 8,7% 4,0 11,9% 0,5 0,9% 0,0 0,1% 0,0 1,5% 0,3 5,9% 20,2

Germany 5,5 3,1% 10,2 30,3% 3,8 6,6% 0,1 0,3% 0,8 38,6% 0,4 7,5% 20,8

Netherlands 5,4 3,1% 1,6 4,7% 0,2 0,4% 0,4 0,9% 0,1 4,7% 0,6 11,1% 8,2

Others 11,0 6,3% 6,8 20,4% 3,3 5,8% 1,2 3,0% 1,0 49,6% 3,4 60,2% 26,8

TOTAL 174,9 100% 33,5 100% 57,2 100% 40,3 100% 2,0 100% 5,7 100% 313,7

Total same period previous campaign 350,1

Difference same period previous

campaign -10%

* From 01/10/2017 - 31/01/2018

Excl olive pomace oil

Source: Comext/Eurostat (Data transmission to Eurostat: 40 days for aggregated results)

All stat. regimes

Others

Destination % share

on total

% share

on total

% share

on total

% share

on total

% share

on total

% share

on total

Spain Italy Greece Portugal France

5,7

-21% -21% 34% 21% -61% 0%

220,8 42,5 42,5 33,3 5,3

18

EU OLIVE OIL PRICES (until 15.4.2018)

19 Source: MS declarations (R1185/2017)

EXTRA VIRGIN CATEGORY

20

Favourable Climatic Conditions since January 2018

21

Source: MS declarations (R1185/2017)

VIRGIN CATEGORY

22 Source: MS declarations (R1185/2017)

LAMPANTE CATEGORY

23

TABLE OLIVES

24

25

61 66 66 74 75

26 26

4244 38 32 31

15 14

513

14 18 22

179

7

6 78

10

43

115129 126 132

138

6252

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Oct 2012-Sept2013

Oct 2013-Sept2014

Oct 2014-Sept2015

Oct 2015-Sept2016

Oct 2016-Sep 2017 Oct 17-Feb18 Oct 16-Feb17

10

00

t

Extra EU IMPORTS of table olives (1000t)

per originOthersEgyptTurkeyMorocco

Source: Eurostat/Comext©; CN codes 07099210, 07108010, 07112010, 20019065, 200570

Oct 2017-Feb 2018 vs Oct2016-Feb2017

26

118 123 120 125 141

61 59

113 117148 159

165

63 68

20 20

2023

24

10 10

13 14

1316

17

6 7

51 5243

4348

21 20

1025

257

8

3 3

325352

370 373403

164 167

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Oct 2012-Sept2013

Oct 2013-Sept2014

Oct 2014-Sept2015

Oct 2015-Sept2016

Oct 2016-Sep 2017 Oct 17-Feb18 Oct 16-Feb17

10

00

t

Extra EU EXPORTS of table olives (1000t)

per destinationBrazil RussiaAustralia CanadaUSA Others

Source: Eurostat/Comext©; CN codes 07099210, 07108010, 07112010, 20019065, 200570

Oct 2017-Feb 2018 vs Oct 2016-Feb2017

27

Thank you

More market information on olive oil:

https://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/olive-oil_en