Market Strategy Nov 2010

8/8/2019 Market Strategy Nov 2010

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report.

IT is riding on the wave of global recovery In this months strategy, we are focusing on the IT sector, which has so far been one ofthe underdogs of this rally due to global headwinds on the one hand and strongdomestic tailwinds favoring domestic consumption and investment-driven sectors onthe other. The market, taking cues from the weak outlook for developed economies,was factoring in low revenue growth for the sector. But the sector has belied thesegrowth expectations and the top IT companies have also started upping their guidancefor the coming quarters. Valuations, while not cheap, are not unduly expensive either,especially in some of the second rung companies. Hence, we remain overweight onthe IT sector (12% weightage in our model portfolio) and recommend investors toincrease exposure to the sector.

Robust volume-led growth to persist : The Indian IT sector witnessed strong volumegrowth of 6.611.2% qoq in 2QFY2011 for Tier-I IT companies on the back of pent-up discretionary spend. Growth was broad-based, with troubled verticals likemanufacturing and telecom returning to their growth trajectories, with strong spendingon services like package implementation and engineering. This has led to return oflarge, multi-year transformational deals, with total contract value (TCV) of US$100mn-800mn strengthening the deal pipeline for IT companies. On the back ofupbeat outlook, companies like Infosys and TCS have raised their hiring guidance forFY2011 from 30,000 to 40,000 and 36,000 to 50,000, respectively. This envisagesthe strong deal pipeline foreseen by companies. Going forward, we expect volumegrowth momentum to sustain at a 56% CQGR for Tier-I companies.

Adequate levers to counter margin headwinds: On account of the sudden surge in

demand, Tier-I IT companies undertook strong lateral hiring, leading to high utilisationlevel. Going ahead as well, we expect utilisation to remain tightly held and continue tobe a strong margin lever, offsetting the negative impact of rupee appreciation andwage inflation. We expect EBITDA for Infosys and TCS to witness a 1722% CAGR over FY201012.

Valuation gaps still attractive: We have a positive outlook on Infosys, as the company continues to trade at a premium of 32% over the BSE Sensex vis--vis its historicalpremium of 46%, despite returning to the high-growth phase similar to thepre-slowdown period (April 2005-December 2007), even on a much larger scale andwith better profitability .

Also, TCS continues to remain our top pick, as the company continues to outperformon the volume front and has significantly bridged the wide gap between itsoperational margins vis--vis Infosys margins, attaining the historic high of 30%EBITDA margin. Hence, we value TCS and Infosys at a 35% premium to our target P/Eof 17x for Sensex, i.e. at 23x FY2012E EPS. We recommend Accumulate on Infosysand TCS with Target Prices of ` 3,260 and ` 1,120, respectively. In mid caps, we preferMphasis and Tech Mahindra due to the steep discounts at which they are currently trading vis--vis Tier-I IT companies, despite having growth comparable to them.Hence, we recommend Buy on Mphasis and Tech Mahindra with Target Prices of ` 872and ` 941, respectively.

Market StrategyNovember 4, 2010

Diwali PicksCompany CMP ( ` ) TP ( )

RIL 1,093 1,260

ICICI Bank 1,231 1,335

Mphasis 609 872

United Phosphorous 204 228

GE Shipping 327 396

Blue Star 453 596

Anant Raj 134 178

LMW 2,704 2,977

FAG Bearing 902 1,035

Electrosteel Casting 41 72

Finolex Cables 59 82

Surya Roshni 115 143

Denso India 95 136

Note: Investment period 12 MonthsBSE Sensex (20,356) and Price as on Nov. 1, 2010


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Volume-led robust revenue growth continues

The Indian IT sector is riding on the wave of global recovery. Most of the tier-I ITcompanies are outperforming revenue growth expectations by a fair margin, led by

strong volume growth. Volume growth has reached levels of 6.611.2% qoq, whichwere last seen during the pre-slowdown phase.

Exhibit 1: Trend in volume growth (qoq)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: Trend in revenue growth (qoq)


The sudden surge in volumes in 1HFY2011 can be attributed to return of spendingon discretionary IT services by clients to a) drive operational efficiencies by way ofautomation and b) prepare for future growth. Thus, the combination of strongvolume growth and favourable cross-currency movement helped the dollarrevenue growth to outperform the streets expectation, with 5.811.7% qoq growth

in 2QFY2011.

Revenue growth is becoming broad-based

Demand drivers for this kind of robust growth span across various dimensions industry wise, service wise as well as geography wise.

Industry wise: As per NASSCOMs strategic review in February 2008, the Indian ITindustry has verticals like banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) (40% torevenue), telecom (19% to revenue), manufacturing (15% to revenue) and retail (8% torevenue) as its main demand drivers.

The nature of IT spend has changed from 2HFY2010 to 1HFY2011, with respect toindustries as well as services that are now driving volume growth. In 2HFY2010,volume growth for IT companies was led by its anchor sector BFS. This is because postthe implementation of various government bailout programs as well as consolidation ofbanks, which took place by the way of merger and acquisition, presented the IT spacewith a huge opportunity for rationalisation of systems and system integration, amongothers. BFS continues its strong growth momentum, as banks are now looking atcustomising their operations to adhere the various risk-compliant frameworks. Thisvertical registered strong CQGR of 510% over 4QFY20102QFY2011. The nature ofservices as well as industries driving growth was skewed primarily to BFS only, but in1HFY2011 it has become broad-based with other anchor industries like retail and CPG

as well as manufacturing beginning to spend on IT.

Retail and CPG have begun to spend on multichannel integration to encash on thedigital consumer behaviour. This vertical has been growing at a scorching pace with

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Market Strategy

double-digit revenue growth of 1020% qoq across all the four tier-I companies in2QFY2011.

The manufacturing vertical is also back with higher spend on IT, especially in industries

like hi-tech and semiconductor that are looking at immediate go-to-the-marketstrategies and, thus, are spending on product engineering. Further, the manufacturingvertical is spending on IT for supply chain management and consulting to drive costefficiencies and for achieving a global presence.

The telecom vertical is now returning to stability, growing 4.012.5% qoq for all thecompanies in 2QFY2011. This vertical was heavily impacted for Infosys and TCS due toone of their top clients, British Telecom, cutting back heavily on capex and downsizingoperations. Managements of both the companies maintain that the client-specific issueis behind, and they foresee a slow recovery in the sector. We believe the telecomservice providers (TSPs) of matured markets will start spending to migrate to next-

generation networks like 4G to support the heavy voice and burgeoning data traffic.

Exhibit 3: Trend in revenue growth for BFSI vertical


Exhibit 4: Trend in revenue growth for telecom


Service wise : The changed business needs of various industries have led to a surge indemand for discretionary services like enterprise application services (EAS) andengineering and R&D services (ERD). Investments in EAS mostly focus on simplifyinginternal processes and harmonising business processes across the enterprise to makeorganisations smarter and leanerprimarily focusing on increasing efficiencies andreducing throughput. In 2QFY2011, the EAS segment reported double-digit qoq growthof 1416% for Infosys and TCS. In addition, demand for ERD services is surging asproduct companies want to reduce their go-to-market time to gain market share fromthe rise in consumer spending.

Geography wise : US has been going very strong as far as clients spending on IT isconcerned, though the macro data points at mixed outlook. The US has been thefrontrunner in awarding transformational deals. For US, growth is very much broad-based, driven across industries and services. Europe is back with heavy spending,growing by double-digit rate of 1018% qoq for all the four IT companies (Infosys,TCS, Wipro and HCL Tech) in 2QFY2011. In Europe, manufacturing and energy andutilities are returning to normalcy, with clients spending on higher value-added servicessuch as EAS and ERD. The European clients are primarily spending on IT to drive cost

efficiencies by outsourcing run-the-business (RTB) type of work and throughrationalisation of existing multiple applications and systems. Asia, on the other hand, iswitnessing more of greenfield projects, relating to clients looking out for globalexpansion.

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Hiring continues to be upbeat, with major upward revision intarget for FY2011

The hiring spree continues in the IT sector, with net addition numbers in 1HFY2011

comparable to entire FY2010. In fact, Infosys and TCS have also increased their hiringtargets from 30,000 to 40,000 and 36,000 to 50,000, respectively, from the beginningof FY2011 to the end of 1HFY2011 for FY2011. This envisages on the strong dealpipeline foreseen by these companies.

Exhibit 5: Trend in hiring (net additions)Net additions FY08 FY09 FY10 1QFY11 2QFY11

Infosys 18,946 13,663 8,946 1,026 7,646

TCS 21,988 32,354 16,668 3,271 10,717

Wipro 18,529 2,243 10,261 4,854 2,975

HCL Tech 9,653 4,224 4,103 6,428 5,661


Utilisation: Continues to be a strong margin lever

The pent-up demand witnessed in 1HY2011 has led to utilisations for Infosys and TCSreach all-time highs. Tier-I companies managed to address this sudden surge indemand by hiring more of just-in-time laterals, taking their utilisation to a new level.Going forward, we expect utilisation to remain tightly held despite robust hiring and tocontinue as a strong margin lever countering the negative impact of rupee appreciationand wage inflation. Hence, though Infosys and TCS are expected to witness a 2022%revenue CAGR over FY201012E, EBITDA is expected to surge at a 17.521.5% CAGR

over the same period.

Exhibit 6: Trend in utilisation


Exhibit 7: Trend in EBIT margins


Rupee to remain narrow ranged

In 3QCY2010 till date, the rupee has appreciated by 3.6% against the USD over2QCY2010, on the back of FII inflows witnessed over the pastone-and-a-half month. We believe this is a temporary phase as Indias fundamentals

like high current account deficit, which is expected to touch 3-3.5% of GDP, in3QCY2010, from US $13.7bn in 2QCY2010, would not support strong rupee in themedium term and the RBIs intervention is likely. Thus, we have taken USD/INR assumption of 45.5 and 44.5 for FY2011 and FY2012, respectively.

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Outlook and valuation

In FY200910, when the macro environment was at its trough, IT spend was more onrun-the-business type services and change-the-business spend had completely dried

up. In 1HFY2011, clients returned to spending on initiatives to drive efficiencies as wellas invest for future, which involved spending on transformational engagements, client-facing applications, ERD services for earliest go-to-market options and to collaborateplatforms. This has led to return of large, multi-year deals, with TCVs of US $100mn800mn strengthening the pipeline for IT companies. Thus, the nature of spend, whichhas seen a tectonic shift in 1HFY2011 compared to 2HFY2010, is driving double-digitbroad-based growth. Also, early indications of client budgets for CY2011 point towardsthe likelihood of an increase in spending with mere possibility of an uptick in pricing.Thus, the outlook remains upbeat for tier-I companies and we expect dollar revenue towitness a 2025% CAGR over FY201012.

We like Infosys, as the company continues to trade at a premium of 32% over the BSESensex vis--vis its historical premium of 46%, despite returning to high-growth phasesimilar to the pre-slowdown period (April 2005December 2007), even on a muchlarger scale and with better profitability. Also, TCS continues to remain our top pick, asthe company continues to outperform on the volume front and has demonstratedexceptional operational exuberance, taking its EBIT margin to an all-time high of 28%,shunning the headwinds of a steep rupee appreciation as well as wage inflation. Thus,TCS has bucked the industrys margin trend by enhancing its operational efficiency onaccount of a cut back in G&A expenses and increased offshore effort, thus extensively bridging the margin gap with Infosys (Exhibit 11). Hence, we value both Infosys andTCS at a 35% premium to our target P/E of 17x for Sensex, i.e. at 23x FY2012E EPS,and recommend Accumulate on Infosys and TCS with Target Prices of ` 3,260 and ` 1,120, respectively.

Exhibit 8: Infosys v/s Sensex, P/E premium/(discount)


Exhibit 9: TCS v/s Infosys, P/E premium/(discount)


Amongst mid-tier IT companies, we prefer Mphasis because of its revenue growth andprofitability comparable to tier-I companies and unwarranted steep discount of 53% totier-I companies (Infosys) at current levels (v/s pre-slowdown historical discount of30%). Hence, valuing the company at 14.3x FY2012E EPS, we maintain a Buy rating

with a Target Price of ` 872.

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Exhibit 10: Mphasis v/s Infosys, P/E premium/(discount)


Exhibit 11: TechM v/s Infosys, P/E premium/(discount)

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: On the basis of reported EPS

Tech Mahindra is another mid-cap IT company that is currently trading at a P/E of 7.5xFY2012E EPS (excluding the value of its stake in Mahindra Satyam), i.e. at a steepdiscount of 65% to Infosys vis--vis its historical five-year premium of 11%. Hence, wealso like Tech Mahindra amongst mid-tier IT companies and recommend Buy with anSOTP Target Price of ` 941.

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Exhibit 12: SOTP valuation for Tech Mahindra(` cr) FY12E

Fully diluted EPS for Tech Mahindra 55.1

Target P/E(x) for Tech Mahindra 12

Target Mcap for Tech Mahindra (ex. Mahindra Satyam) 8148Market value of stake in Mahindra Satyam 4056

Holding discount to Mahindra Satyam's stake 15%

Target Mcap of stake in Mahindra Satyam 3448

Target Mcap for Tech Mahindra (inc. Mahindra Satyam) 11,596

Target price (incl value of stake in Mahindra Satyam)( ` ) 941


Exhibit 13: Recommendation Summary Company Reco CMP Tgt Price Upside FY2012E P/BV FY2012E P/E FY2010-12E FY2012E RoCE FY2012E RoE

(`) (` ) % (x) (x) EPS CAGR % % %

3iInfotech BUY 68 100 47.5 0.8 4.2 204.0 15.7 19.5

Educomp BUY 548 734 33.9 2.5 11.9 26.9 21.0 22.9

HCL Tech Acc. 407 462 13.6 3.2 12.8 34.4 17.3 26.6

Infosys Acc. 2,995 3,260 8.9 5.2 21.1 13.7 28.3 27.0

Infotech Enterprises Acc. 161 184 14.0 1.5 9.6 (26.1) 17.3 16.4

Mphasis BUY 609 872 43.1 2.2 10.0 8.4 43.6 24.1

NIIT BUY 66 83 26.4 1.7 11.4 16.6 12.1 15.8

TCS Acc. 1,054 1,120 6.3 7.3 22.1 16.7 45.4 36.6

Tech Mahindra BUY 737 941 27.6 2.3 13.4 1.4 19.0 19.0

Wipro Acc. 423 465 9.8 3.5 17.0 14.7 17.8 22.6



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Diwali Picks

Reliance Industries (CMP: ` 1,093/ TP: ` 1,260/ Upside: 15%)

RILs stock price has borne the brunt of negative news flows on account of slowerramp-up of KG Basin gas, subdued refining and petrochemical margins andconcerns over the redeployment of the cash flows. However, we believe that thecurrent price has discounted the worst case scenario and there is potential upsidefor the stock from the current levels.

We expect RILs profitability to register 34% CAGR over FY2010-12E driven by improvement in refining margins coupled with ramp up of oil and gas productionat the KG Basin. Moreover, increase in the share of E&P in the profit matrix will inturn reduce exposure to cyclical segments.

We expect the company's foray in the newer ventures (such as shale gas,Broadband and power) along with discovery and monetisation of its upstreamportfolio to keep it on high-growth orbit going ahead. Moreover, the same is alsolikely to resolve the concerns over the redeployment of the cash flows. On thevaluation front, the stock is relatively under-valued trading at 1.9x FY2012E P/BV.

Moreover, RIL is trading at ~30% discount to Sensex in terms of FY2012E P/BV,even though estimated RoIC for FY2012E continues to be as high as 18.0%.Hence, we maintain a Buy on RIL, with a Target Price of Rs1,260, translating intoan upside of 15% from current levels.

One-year forward Premium/Discount to Sensex P/BV


Comparison with Sensex Earnings growth (FY2010-12E CAGR %) FY2012E P/BV (x)

RIL 34.0 1.9

Sensex 19.7 2.7


Key Financials Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2011E 234,754 17.4 22,718 69.5 15.0 15.7 2.2 9.5 1.7

FY2012E 243,596 20.0 28,530 87.2 16.4 12.5 1.9 7.5 1.5


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ICICI Bank (CMP: ` 1,231/ TP: ` 1,335/ Upside: 8%)

The Bank is well-positioned to gain CASA market share on the back of substantialbranch expansion from 955 in 3QFY2008 to 2,500+ in 2QFY2011 as well as

credit market share on the back of strong Capital Adequacy at 20.2% (Tier-I at13.8%).

Net Interest Margins of the Bank are expected to improve on the back of increasein CASA ratio to 44.0% in 2QFY2011 from 29% in FY2009.

On the back of an improving economic environment, NPA losses are expected tostart declining. The Bank has also done lower restructuring of loans than PSUBanks (4.8% of Net Worth v/s 40%+ for most PSU Banks). As a result, we expectNPA provisions /Assets to decline sharply to 0.5% by FY2012E (from 1.2% inFY2010)

We expect the bank to deliver strong earnings CAGR of 29.7% over FY2010-12E

and a ROE of 15.6% by FY2012E vs. 9.7% in FY2010. The stock is trading atvaluations of 2.4x FY2012E P/ABV (including subsidiaries). Hence, we recommendan Accumulate on the stock with a Target Price of ` 1,335 valuing the core bank at2.9x FY2012E P/ABV and assigning a value of ` 254 for its subsidiaries.

Depressed risk-adjusted NIMs to improve going forwardParticulars FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E

Net Op Inc ( ` cr) 9,224 13,599 17,081 16,875 15,591 16,196 20,639

PAT ( ` cr) 2,540 3,110 4,158 3,423 4,024 5,133 6,984

Risk-adj NIMs* (%) 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.9

ROA (%) 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4

ROE (%) 14.8 13.4 10.3 9.2 9.7 11.9 15.6*Risk-adjusted NIMs=(NIMs - provisioning expenses) as % of assets

Key Financials Y/E Op Inc. NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABV

March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (` ) (%) (%) (x) (x)

FY2011E 16,196 2.5 5,133 44.6 474 1.2 11.9 27.6 2.6

FY2012E 20,639 2.6 6,984 60.7 508 1.4 15.6 20.3 2.4


Mphasis (CMP: ` 609/ TP: ` 872/ Upside: 43%)

The company steered the pricing headwind from HPs renegotiation exercise very prudently by making up the cuts in application services with higher price points inInfrastructure services. The major pricing review overhang is done and, goingforward, management expects a stable pricing arrangement with HP given that the50% of rate card pricing will remain fixed and 50% will be market driven

Management is focused on enhancing the companys growth trajectory in theNon-HP business going forward. This initiative coupled with the effective rate cardimplementation, which has witnessed cost optimisation, would see improvedoperational performance for Mphasis going ahead.

Mphasis has strong cash position of ` 1,487cr as on July 2010, which would help it

to go for acquisitions of strategic fit in the size of US$50mn$100mn annualrevenue run rate.

Considering the companys parentage of one of the largest IT companies globally (HP-EDS), driving rapid growth and bringing it closer to Top Tier status, we expect


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Mphasis to be rerated from the FY2012E P/E of 10.0x that it is currently trading at. We value the stock at 14.3x FY2012E EPS of ` 60.9 (at 35% discount to Infosystarget PE of 22x and in line with target multiple for HCL Tech) and maintain ourBuy rating on the stock with a Target Price of ` 872.

Relative valuations

FY2012E P/E 5-year average P/E Avg FY2012E P/Efor Tier 1 cos.Mphasis 10.0 11.8 18.3


Peer valuations FY2012E FY2012E FY2012E FY2010-FY12E FY2012E FY2012E

P/BV(x) P/E(x) EV/EBITDA EPS CAGR(%) ROCE(%) ROE(%)Infosys 5.2 21.1 13.7 13.7 28.3 27.0TCS 7.2 22.1 14.8 16.6 45.4 36.6

Wipro 3.5 17.0 11.1 14.7 17.8 22.6HCL Tech 3.2 12.8 7.2 34.4 17.3 26.6Mphasis 2.2 10.0 5.3 8.4 43.6 24.1


Key Financial Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (% ) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2011E 6,083 25.4 1,237 58.9 30.5 10.3 2.8 6.5 1.6

FY2012E 7,101 24.2 1,279 60.9 24.1 10.0 2.2 5.3 1.3


United Phosphorous (CMP : ` 204/ TP : ` 228/ Upside: 12%)

United Phosphorus (UPL) figures among the Top-5 generic Agrichemical players inthe world, with a presence across major markets like the US, EU, Latina Americaand India.

Total off-patent market is worth US $29bn, of which a mere US $16bn is currently being catered by the generic players. Furthermore, 61% of the same is controlledby the five largest generic players including UPL. Further, given the high entry barriers by way of high investments, entry of new players is also restricted. Thus,amidst this scenario and on account of having a low cost base, we believe that UPLenjoys an edge over competition and is placed in sweet spot to leverage theupcoming opportunities in the global Generic space

Over FY2010-12E, we expect UPL to post 9% and 19% CAGR in Sales and EPS,respectively. We expect RoCE and RoE to improve from 14% and 19% in FY2010to 20% each in FY2012E.

At current valuations of 11.6x FY2012E EPS, the stock is attractively valued. OverFY2005-08, UPL traded in-line with Sensex P/E, however post global meltdownand deterioration in core business, stock has been trading at discount. Withimprovement in earning and RoEs, current P/E discount of 27% against Sensex isunwarranted, hence we maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock withTarget Price of ` 228.


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Comparison with Sensex Earnings growth (FY2010-12E CAGR) FY2012E PE

United Phosphorous 18.5 11.6

Sensex 19.7 17.2

Source: Angel Research

One year forward Premium/Disc to Sensex P/E

Source: C-Line, Angel Research

Key FinancialsY/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2011E 5,830 20.3 652 14.1 19.3 14.5 2.5 8.5 1.7

FY2012E 6,406 21.3 814 17.6 19.9 11.6 2.1 7.1 1.5


Great Eastern Shipping (CMP: ` . 327/ TP: ` 396/ Upside:21%)

Tanker freight rates bottoming out: The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimatesglobal oil demand to register 1.5% CAGR over CY2009-11E increasing by 2.6mbdto 87.5mbd as against the decline of 1.5% in CY2009. As per Clarksons, 13% and14% of the existing capacity (fleet) of crude and product tankers will be added inCY2010. However, accelerated phase out of single hull tankers, which account for12% of the world's existing tanker fleet, will relieve supply-side pressures and keepthe freight rates at current sustainable levels over the near to medium term. GEShipping (Gesco) will be a key beneficiary of higher tanker freight rates as itderives around 46% of its Consolidated Revenues from the Tanker Segment.

GIL IPO to unlock value : The company intends to list its 97.62% subsidiary,Greatship Ltd (GIL) by 2HFY2011E through fresh equity issuance. We believe thiswill unlock potential value of the Offshore business, which globally trades at highermultiples than the Shipping business due to better stability and high visibility inEarnings. We have valued Gesco's Offshore business at 5.0x FY2012E EV/EBIDTA which is at a discount to Great Offshore (FY2012E EV/EBITDA of 5.6x) thereby fetching ` 107/share or ` 1,678cr

Relatively younger fleet: The average age of Gescos fleet (34 vessels) is around10.6 years, which is relatively young given that most vessels have a life of 25years. The company has applied depreciation on an accelerated basis for thevessels that will need to be phased out by FY2010 as per the MARPOL regulations.

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Market Strategy

Offshore assets such as platform supply vessels and anchor handling tugs arerelatively young and hence, the company could earn better rates on such assets.

Compellingly attractive valuations: We expect Gesco to register 41.6% CAGR inNet Profit over CY2010-12E with the bottoming out of the freight rates and asset

prices. We value Gesco on SOTP basis, with its Shipping business contributing ` 289/share (15% discount to NAV), while its Offshore business contributing ` 107/share business (5.0x FY2012E EV/EBIDTA). Based on our Target Price of ` 396 the implied EV/ EBITDA, P/BV, P/E multiple works out to 6.2x, 0.9x, and 5.9xrespectively, on FY2012E basis. Thus, on account of trading at a significantdiscount to its global peers, we recommend a Buy on stock .

Key FinancialsY/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2011E 2,985 37.7 681 44.7 11.4 7.3 0.8 7.4 2.8

FY2012E 3,833 40.2 1,028 67.5 15.5 4.8 0.7 5.5 2.2

Blue Star (CMP: ` 453/ TP: ` 596/ Upside: 32%)

Blue Star operates in a high value add space, as indicated by its high RoE profileof over 40%. The company is poised for strong growth in the years to come, basedon positive business outlook across all its segments and a healthy order book of ` 1,998cr, which is 1.1x FY2010 sales of the Electro Mechanical Projects andPackaged Air Conditioning Systems (EMPPACS) segment. The acquisition of DSGupta Construction will complement the companys service bouquet, which would

now have a strong presence in the plumbing and fire fighting space.

Going ahead, we expect the demand from the traditional IT and office segments toimprove, driving the growth of the company. We expect the sales to grow at aCAGR of 24.4% over FY2010-12E.

At the CMP, the stock is trading at reasonable valuations of 14.5x FY2012E EPS,compared to a P/E of 17.3x for Voltas, even though Voltas has a high exposure tothe relatively weaker Middle East markets, while Blue Star is a domestic-focusedplayer. We believe that this is a good entry point into the stock, keeping in view itsstrong growth prospects. We have valued the stock at P/E of 18.8x FY2012E EPSand arrived at a target price of ` 596.

Blue Star trading at a Discount to Peers FY2012E PE FY2012E RoE (%) FY2010-2012E PAT Growth

Blue Star 14.5 41.2 15.5

Voltas 17.3 29.5 23.7

Source: Company, Angel Research; * Note: Blue Star's peers include only Voltas


March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2011E 3,163 10.1 215 23.9 39.9 19.0 6.7 12.8 1.3

FY2012E 3,989 10.6 282 31.4 41.2 14.5 5.3 9.7 1.0 Source: Company, Angel Research


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Market Strategy

Anant Raj Industries (CMP: ` 134/ TP: ` 178/ Upside: 33%)

Almost all of ARIL's land bank (1,000 acres) is exclusively located in the NCR within50km of Delhi, with approximately 525 acres in Delhi. This land bank has been

acquired at an historical average cost of `

300/sq ft. We expect ARIL's residential projects to drive its near-term operational visibility and

help register ` 600cr Profit over the next three years. ARIL recently launched tworesidential projects in NCR; Kapashera (0.28mn sq. ft.) and Manesar (1mn sq. ft.)for ` 5,000/sq. ft. and ` 2,500/sq. ft., respectively. The management has alsoindicated that the Huaz Khas project is back on track and is expected to belaunched soon after Diwali. Further , we expect ARILs Manesar and Kirti Nagarproperties to reach their peak occupancy levels in 69 months as leasing activity improves coupled with five hotels getting operational by FY2011E. Consequently,we expect ARIL to report rental income of ` 201cr in FY2012E as compared to ` 49cr reported in FY2010.

ARIL is trading at a 36% discount to its NAV. The stock is trading at 9.7x FY2012EEPS and 1.0x FY2012E P/BV and hence we maintain a Buy on stock with a TargetPrice of ` 178 (15% discount to our one-year forward NAV).


March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2011E 491 52.7 209 6.6 5.6 20.1 1.1 14.6 7.7

FY2012E 995 58.2 434 13.8 10.6 9.7 1.0 7.4 4.3

Lakshmi Machine Works (CMP: `

2,703/ TP: `

2,977/ Upside: 10%) Lakshmi Machine Works (LMW) is the market leader in textile machinery space in

India, the worlds second largest market, giving it strong competitive advantages.The company has a strong service network, with service centres in each textile hubof the country, again a strong advantage over its European peers. LMW also hasthe advantage of having a huge client base of about 1300 out of the total universeof 1600 players. LMW has proved its technological prowess by developing itsproducts using in-house research and development for the past 15 years.

LMW has a strong order book of ` 3,600cr, with the current quoted delivery time of8-10 months. The company has seen strong order inflows in 2QFY2011 of about ` 800cr, which is more than the total order inflow in the entire FY2010. Going

ahead, we believe that the deferment of orders would reduce, as yarn demandoutlook is strong and spinning players are operating at high utilization levels ofaround 95%.

Moreover, the promoters have announced a buyback of shares at a maximumprice of ` 2,045/share, giving a limited downside to the stock price.

We believe reasonable valuations of 14.5x FY2012E EPS provides a good entry point for investors. We have valued the stock at 16x FY2012E EPS which result intotarget price of ` 2,977.

Share buy-back detailsPrice for buyback Date of announcement Buyback amount ( ` cr) Market Cap ( ` cr)

` 2,045 /share 28-Jul-10 230 (Max.) 3,445



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November 4, 2010 13

Market Strategy


March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2011E 1,883 14.3 158 127.9 16.2 21.1 3.2 9.4 1.3

FY2012E 2,487 14.8 230 186.1 20.5 14.5 2.8 6.2 0.9


FAG Bearing (CMP: ` 902/ TP: ` 1,035/ Upside: 15%)

FAG Bearing (FAG) is Indias second largest player in the Indian bearing industry with a total market share of ~15%, and a market leader in the spherical rollerbearing segment with a market share of ~55%. FAG is a member of the SchaefflerGroup, Germany, a global leader in rolling element bearing segment and one ofthe most prominent player in the industry. We believe that the robust demand inthe auto and industrial segments will aid FAG in registering a CAGR of ~17% innet sales and ~30% in net profit over CY2009-12E.

We believe that there is likely to be a substantial uptick in the industrial segment inthe next three-four quarters driven by increase in demand from capital goodcompanies. Also auto segment is likely to grow driven by 12.3% CAGR in autosector volumes. The company has a strong customer base (Maruti, M&M, TataMotors, GM, Ford, Daimler Chrysler, etc.) in this segment.

The companys net asset turnover remains high (over ~6x in CY2010E) due tolargely depreciated assets. Its strong business model enables it to record robustand consistent RoCE in the range of 30-33%. Cash flow generation is alsoexpected to remain healthy. On the valuation front, the stock is attractively pricedat 10.4x CY2012E EPS vs. the peer average of 12x CY2012E EPS. We rollover toCY2012E and recommend a Buy on the stock, with a Target Price of ` 1,035,valuing the stock at 12x CY2012E earnings.

Relative valuationsCY2012E P/E 5-year average P/E CY2012E P/E Peer average

FAG Bearings 10.4 9.7 12.0

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Angel Research

Peer valuations Company CMP ( ` ) Mcap ( ` cr) EPS ( ) RoE (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x)

FAG 902 1,499 62.7 22.6 14.4 3.2 8.5SKF 576 3,035 31.1 23.0 18.5 4.2 11.2Timken 192 1,225 7.7 14.9 25.0 3.7 18.2NRB 57 554 4.3 22.4 13.2 3.0 7.7

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Valuation on TTM basis

Key Financials

Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

CY2010E 1,049 18.3 118 70.9 22.9 12.7 2.7 6.6 1.2

CY2011E 1,185 18.0 128 76.7 20.4 11.8 2.2 5.7 1.0

CY2012E 1,326 17.4 143 86.3 19.2 10.4 1.9 5.0 0.8



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November 4, 2010 14

Market Strategy

Electrosteel Castings (CMP: ` 41/ TP: ` 72/ Upside: 76%)

Electrosteels (ECL) backward integration initiatives through coking coal mine atParbatpur (Jharkhand), which is already operational, is expected to result in

expansion of EBITDA margin by 329bp over FY2010-12E. The company is also awaiting final environmental clearance for its iron ore mine at

Kodolibad (Jharkhand), which will further lower costs, but has not been factored inour estimates.

ECL is venturing into steel-making through its associate Electrosteel Steels, which issetting up a 2.2mn tonne steel plant. The plant is expected to be fully commissioned by June 2011E.

Currently, the stock trades at 0.7x FY2011E and FY2012E P/BV. On a P/E basis,the stock trades at 6.3x FY2011E and 6.1x FY2012E earnings. We maintain a Buy on the stock, valuing the Core business at 8x FY2012E FDEPS and its investmentsin the Steel business at 1x Book Value.

SOTP Valuation(` )

FY2012E EPS 6.7

Multiple (x) 8

Value Per share 53

Steel business 19

Target Price 72 Source: Company, Angel Research


March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2011E 1,706 26.2 246 6.5 14.2 6.3 0.7 4.3 1.1

FY2012E 1,818 28.0 254 6.7 13.1 6.1 0.7 3.6 1.0 Source: Company, Angel Research

Finolex Cables (CMP: ` 59/ TP: ` 82/ Upside: 39%)

Finolex Cables is poised for strong growth over the next few years, owing to entry in the verticals of High Tension (HT) and Extra High Voltage (EHV) Cables and

market share expansion in the existing Low Tension (LT) Cables segment.

The rapid ramp up of production at the Roorkee plant has already starteddelivering results. The company has further increased the capacity at this plant by 50%. The proximity to the growing North Indian markets and tax benefits from thisplant are expected to boost the turnaround of the company.

Companys derivatives losses are expected to decline going ahead. By FY2012E,these losses are estimated to decline to ` 24cr from ` 76cr in FY2010.

We believe attractive valuations of 6.8x FY2012E EPS and 1.2x FY2012E BV provides a good entry point for investors. We have valued the stock at 9x FY2012EEPS which result into target price of ` 82. Moreover, the company has a holding inFinolex Industries, which has a book value of ` 152cr but a market value of ` 472cr.This is not captured in our target price, providing further upside potential.


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November 4, 2010 15

Market Strategy

Market Value of investment in Finolex IndustriesFY12 Net Worth

(` cr)Market Cap

(` cr) P/BVBook Value of

Investment ( ` cr)Market Value ofInvestment ( ` cr)

812 896 1.2 152 472



March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2011E 2,050 9.3 80 5.3 12.0 11.7 1.3 5.1 0.5

FY2012E 2,458 9.9 139 9.1 18.3 6.8 1.2 4.1 0.4


Surya Roshni (CMP: ` .115/ TP: ` .143/ Upside: 24%)

Surya Roshni has completed a large capacity expansion program across allproducts in the lighting and steel division. The new capacities are expected tocontribute to strong top-line growth of 23.8% CAGR over FY2010-12E.

The contribution of the high-margin lighting division to sales is expected toincrease from 29.5% to 33.6% over FY2010-12E. This asset-light nature of theexpanded capacity would improve the RoCE of the company from 12.2% to 15.0%over FY2010-12E.

The promoters have subscribed to three rounds of warrants, two of which havealready been partially converted. We expect the outstanding warrants also to beconverted into equity, thereby increasing the promoters stake to 60.0% by

FY2012E from 29.1% at the end of FY2010. The promoters would infuse `

193crinto the company through these warrant conversions.

We believe attractive valuations of 5.8x FY2012E EPS provides a good entry pointfor investors. We have valued the stock at 6.6x FY2012E EPS which result intotarget price of ` 143.

Preferential allotment planDate of Warrantallocation

Warrant Conversion Price(` /share)

Expected Year ofconversion

Amount invested(` cr)

14-Dec-09 59 FY2011 37.8

12-Jul-10 83 FY2011 94.9

22-Oct-10 111 FY2012 60.8 Source: Company, Angel Research


March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2011E 2,293 7.2 63 12.7 18.0 9.2 1.3 6.6 0.5

FY2012E 2,751 7.5 97 19.7 19.2 5.8 1.0 5.4 0.4



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November 4, 2010 16

Market Strategy

Denso India (CMP: ` 95/ TP: ` 136/ Upside: 43%)

Denso is a subsidiary of Denso Corp., a US $30bn enterprise, which has strongrelations with global auto majors, viz. Suzuki, Honda and Toyota. Besides strongrelations with global majors, Denso Corp. provides strong financial backing andtechnological knowledge to Denso, which will help the company to expandcapacity as well as add new products to its portfolio in the future to cater to thegrowing domestic demand.

With the huge spurt in demand for automobiles, OEMs have witnessed asupply-side constraint from auto ancillary companies. This has resulted in aconsiderable increase in the bargaining power of these companies. Denso on theback of its strong balance sheet is likely to be a preferred supplier going forward.

On the back of strong growth witnessed by the OEMs, we expect Denso to witnessa 17% CAGR in sales over FY2010-12E. Given the companys MNC profile andstrong product range, current margins are too low and are expected to show

material improvement. We have factored in 7.3% EBITDA margins in FY2012E vs.4.8% in FY2010, the drivers being localization, increased bargaining power andmeasures by Bank of Japan to curb further Yen appreciation. Consequently, thecompanys net profit is expected to increase at a 49% CAGR over FY201012E.Denso has traded at a five-year average of 9x one-year forward earnings.Currently, the stock is trading at 6.2x FY2012E EPS and we value the company at9x FY2012E EPS. We recommend a Buy rating on Denso with a Target Price ofRs136, implying an upside of 43%.

Improving EBITDA margins to result in higher RoEsParticulars FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12ESales ( ` cr) 361 421 466 531 736 884 1016PAT ( ` cr) 21.0 27.7 27.8 18.1 18.9 21.2 42.1Operating Margin (%) 11.8 11.6 9.8 6.1 4.8 4.8 7.3ROE (%) 16.9 18.4 16.2 9.6 9.4 9.9 17.5



March ( ` cr) (%) ( cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2011E 884 4.8 21.2 7.6 9.9 12.3 1.2 6.4 0.3

FY2012E 1,016 7.3 42.1 15.1 17.5 6.2 1.0 3.3 0.2 Source: Company, Angel Research


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November 4, 2010 17

Market Strategy

Angel Model Portfolio

Sector Company CMP ( ` ) Target Price ( ` )BSE 100

Weightage (%)Angel

Weightage (%) Stance

Auto & Ancillaries 6.3 8.0 Overweight Maruti Suzuki 1,509 1,670 0.9 3.0 Overweight

FAG Bearings 902 1,035 0.0 3.0 Overweight

Denso India 95 136 0.0 2.0 Overweight

BFSI 26.4 27.0 Overweight

SBI 3,196 3,556 4.0 5.0 Overweight

Axis Bank 1,511 1,705 1.8 7.0 Overweight

ICICI Bank 1,231 1,335 6.2 11.0 Overweight

HDFC Bank 2,347 2,510 3.8 4.0 Equalweight

Cement 2.4 0.0 Underweight

FMCG 7.4 3.0 Underweight

ITC 172 177 4.1 3.0 Underweight

Hotels 0.2 3.0 Overweight

Taj GVK 149 228 0.0 3.0 OverweightInfrastructure & CapGoods 12.0 15.0 Overweight

Bluestar 453 596 0.0 4.0 Overweight

L&T 2,081 2,024 5.1 5.0 Equalweight

LMW 2,704 2,977 0.0 3.0 OverweightNagarjuna

Construction152 201 0.0 3.0 Overweight

Media 0.0 3.0 Overweight

Jagran Prakashan 129 154 0.0 3.0 Overweight

Metals 8.1 3.0 Underweight

Electrosteel Castings 41 72 0.0 3.0 Overweight

Oil & Gas 14.3 11.0 Underweight

Reliance Industries 1,093 1,260 8.4 11.0 Overweight

Pharma 3.9 6.0 Overweight

Cipla 357 360 0.0 3.0 Overweight

Aurobindo Pharma 1,246 1,330 0.0 3.0 Overweight

Power 3.6 0.0 Underweight

Real Estate 1.4 3.0 Overweight

Anant Raj Industries 134 178 0.0 3.0 Overweight

Software 10.6 12.0 Overweight

TCS 1,054 1,120 2.7 4.0 Overweight

Tech Mahindra 737 941 0.0 3.0 Overweight

Mphasis 609 872 0.0 5.0 Overweight

Telecom 2.8 0.0 Underweight

Others 0.7 6.0 Overweight

United Phosporus 204 228 0.0 3.0 OverweightFinolex Cables 59 82 0.0 3.0 Overweight


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November 4, 2010

Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: [email protected]

Website: www.angeltrade.com

Disclaimer

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed asinvestment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations asthey deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities ofthe companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and shouldconsult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.

Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businessesmay, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory tothe recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of theanalyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's pricemovement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company'sfundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information,

internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is

accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general

guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any

way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in

the information contained in this report . Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all

the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any

representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within

this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the

information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that

prevent us from doing so.

This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information ordata may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.

Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providingcorporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specifictransaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past.

Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any lossor damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information.

Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website(Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosurestatus in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investmentpositions in the stocks recommended in this report.

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)


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Address: Acme Plaza, A Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.

Tel: (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800

Research Team

Fundamental:

Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical [email protected] Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking [email protected] Vaishali Jajoo Automobile [email protected] Kanani Infrastructure, Real Estate [email protected]

Anand Shah FMCG, Media [email protected] Pareek Oil & Gas [email protected] Dalmia Pharmaceutical [email protected] Sankhe Cement, Power [email protected] Desai Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping [email protected] Bariya Fertiliser, Mid-cap [email protected] Jain Metals & Mining [email protected] Perinchery Capital Goods [email protected] Anand IT, Telecom [email protected] Sharda Mid-cap [email protected] Lillaney Mid-cap [email protected] Mody Mid-cap [email protected]

Amit Vora Research Associate (Oil & Gas) [email protected] V Srinivasan Research Associate (Cement, Power) [email protected] Salot Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping) [email protected] Kapur Research Associate (FMCG, Media) [email protected] Jain Research Associate (Metals & Mining) [email protected] Kothari Research Associate (Automobile) [email protected] Bhutda Research Associate (Banking) [email protected] P.V.S Research Associate (FMCG, Media) [email protected] Thaker Research Associate (Capital Goods) [email protected]

Nitin Arora Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) [email protected]

Technicals: Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst [email protected] Vasudeo Technical Analyst [email protected]:Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives [email protected] Agarwal Derivative Analyst [email protected]

Institutional Sales Team:Mayuresh Joshi VP - Institutional Sales [email protected]

Abhimanyu Sofat AVP - Institutional Sales [email protected]

Nitesh Jalan Sr. Manager [email protected] Modi Sr. Manager [email protected] Jangir Sr. Manager [email protected] Iyer Sr. Manager [email protected] Harsora Sr. Dealer [email protected] Chavan Dealer [email protected] Tisani Dealer [email protected]

Production Team:Bharathi Shetty Research Editor [email protected] Kaur Research Editor [email protected] Patil Production [email protected]

Dilip Patel Production [email protected]

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