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Seite 1 12.04.2017 Seminar Hong Kong Productivity Council Hong Kong, April 6 th 2017 Market, Technology & Cost Analysis 3D Printing in Medical Applications
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Seite 1
12.04.2017
Seminar
Hong Kong Productivity Council
Hong Kong, April 6th 2017
Market, Technology & Cost Analysis 3D Printing in Medical Applications
Seite 2
12.04.2017
11:15 – 11:40 Business Case in Medical Industry (II/II) 5
11:00 – 11:15 Tea Break 4
10:35 – 11:00 Business Cases in MEdical Industry (I/II) 3
10:15 – 10:35 Technologies 2
09:45 – 10:15 Application Overview in Medical Industry 1
Agenda
Seite 3
12.04.2017
11:15 – 11:40 Business Case in Medical Industry (II/II) 5
11:00 – 11:15 Tea Break 4
10:35 – 11:00 Business Cases in MEdical Industry (I/II) 3
10:15 – 10:35 Technologies 2
09:45 – 10:15 Application Overview in Medical Industry 1
Agenda
Seite 4
12.04.2017
Overall global revenues associated with additive manufacturing are growing rapidly
AM revenues global and forecast
0
5.000
2000 2005 2010 2015
Re
ve
nu
es in
Mio
. $
Year
Source: Wohlers Report 2015
Seite 5
12.04.2017
Forecast for the market volume of additive manufacturing annually adjusted upwards
AM revenues global and forecast
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Re
ve
nu
es in
Mio
. $
Year
Forecast Wohlers Report 2013
Forecast Wohlers Report 2014
Forecast Wohlers Report 2015
Source: Wohlers Report 2013, 2014, 2015
Seite 6
12.04.2017
Also, the market volume of AM materials is strongly growing and the range of available materials is constantly broadening
AM materials
0
250
500
750
2008 2006 2010 2012 2014 2001 2004 2002
Metal
Plastic
Re
ve
nu
es in
Mio
. $
Year
Source: Wohlers Report 2015
Seite 7
12.04.2017
Application markets The story behind market attractiveness
Mark
et
Po
ten
tial
low
m
ed
ium
h
igh
Technological Potential
low medium high
2
4
13
5
1 6 10
15
7
14 17
12
8
20
21
22
24
19
26
28
27
29
31
32
34 35
33
36
37
38
39
40
42 41
45
44
43
46
48
47
3
11
30
50
49
53
51
52
Aerospace, Medical and Industrial are – and
will remain – attractive target markets for AM
due to comparatively high margins, high
component complexity and individuality as well
as high performance requirements (i.e. lightweight, efficiency, biocampatibility etc.)
Energy and Consumer comprise several
attractive applications due to high application-
specific requirements either regarding
performance and repair or individuality
Automotive, despite offering high technological
potential, has only limited market attractiveness,
mostly due to very high production volumes, low
margins and high levels of standardization
High performance application
segments with limited production
volumes are generally preferable
Seite 8
12.04.2017
Until 2020, we expect a significant shift in material and manufacturing costs.
Shift of threshold in cost Optimistic, but still realistic scenario for 2020
Threshold 2016
Turbine blade*
Production
cost lower Production
cost higher
Threshold 2020
Fuel nozzle
Minimal inv.
instruments
Knee implant
Differential
housing
Deep drawing
tool
Molding
tool
Bike frame
Hydraulic
manifold
+950 % +400 % +75 % +200 % +40 % +33 % +2 % +90 % -50 %
2015
+821 % +85 % +60 % +19 % -24 % -34 % -41 % -43 % -66 %
2020
*Single crystal (SX) turbine blade in 2015 not technically feasible based on SLM technology.
Seite 9
12.04.2017
Additive manufacturing already is a mainstream application in industries where the production of individualized products is more cost efficient
How can additive manufacturing become a mainstream application?
Individualization
Additive manufacturing is highly
interesting for applications with a
high degree of individualization or
mass-customization
Source: EOS, Materialise
Dental prostheses and hearing aids
„In the dental industry, additive manufacturing is
already used for series production. In some
countries, dentures produced with our technology
replaced investment casting for dentures almost
completely. Right now, there are approx. 6,8 million
units per year produced with this technology. Upward
tendency.“
- Hans Langer, founder of EOS
Seite 10
12.04.2017
Different markets are influenced by additive manufacturing
Machine
construction
Tool making
Hydraulic
components
Tool repair and
rework
Etc.
Implants
Dental copings
Hearing aids
Laboratory
equipment
Orthodontics
Etc.
Mobile devices
Chips/
Electronics
Computers
Tools
Casings
Customer
printing
Toys
Etc.
Turbine blades
Heat
exchanger
Filters
Storage
devices
Energy
transmission
devices
Etc.
Engine/ Power
Train
Car body/
Chassis
Spare parts
Gearboxes
Interieur
Etc.
Lightweight
applications
Aircraft engine
components
Aircraft body
components
Special
formed/
shaped tubes
Etc.
Industry Aerospace Medical Consumer
Product Energy Automotive
Seite 11
12.04.2017
The drivers for additive manufacturing have a particular impact
in the markets industry, aerospace and medical
Drivers for the application of additive manufacturing in different industries
Increase of product
performance
Industry Automotive Aerospace Medical Consumer
Products Energy
Individualized
products
Weight /material
saving
Reduced unit
costs for lot size 1
Decreased time to
market
Overall
Seite 12
12.04.2017
Areas of application
Visual prototyping
Functional prototyping
Prototype tooling
Direct tooling
Direct manufacturing
Spare parts
Repair and rework
Prototyping
Manufacturing
Repair
Source: Gebhardt, Fraunhofer ILT, Fraunhofer IPT, Stratasys, Instructables
Seite 13
12.04.2017
Markets and applications 2015
Visual
prototyping
Functional
prototyping
Prototype
tooling
Direct
tooling
Direct
manufacturing
Industry Automotive Aerospace Medical Consumer
Products Energy
Spare
parts
Repair/
rework
Pro
toty
pin
g
Manufa
ctu
ring
R
epair
Markets and applications 2015
Seite 14
12.04.2017
Markets and applications 2015
Visual
prototyping
Functional
prototyping
Prototype
tooling
Direct
tooling
Direct
manufacturing
Industry Automotive Aerospace Medical Consumer
Products Energy
Spare
parts
Repair/
rework
Pro
toty
pin
g
Manufa
ctu
ring
R
epair
Markets and applications 2015
Slide 15
12.04.2017
Visual Protoyping Surgical models
Medical
Conjoined twins
Chest area
Conjoined twins
Head area
Source: Inside3DP, TCT Magazine
Slide 16
12.04.2017
Direct Manufacturing Medical fixture, Braces
Medical
Dental prosthesis
(Cobalt-Chrome)
Medical fixture
(PA 12)
Source: Fraunhofer IWU, EOS
Slide 17
12.04.2017
Direct Manufacturing Instruments, Implants
Medical
Implant - Hip, knee, spinal
(Ti6Al4V/ Cobalt-Chrome)
Minimal invasive Instruments
(NiCo/ Palladium)
Source: 3DPrint/ Conformis, Microfabrica MICA Freeform
Slide 18
12.04.2017
Printing of organs
Source: 3Dprint.com
Picture of the future Printing of organic tissue/ organs
Seite 19
12.04.2017
Future development of additive manufacturing
Consumer &
Electronics
Industrial Tooling & Robotics
Automotive
INDUSTRIAL
TOOLING & REPAIR
FUNCTIONAL
PROTOTYPES
VIS
UA
L P
RO
TO
TY
PE
S
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Turbine components with
improved cooling (rotating parts, also Aerospace )
Energy
Individualized
Spareparts (i.e. Oil & Gas)
Hydraulic
components
Printed
batteries
Special
Repair
Individualized
design products (Casings & Jewellery)
Integrated
electronics
& sensors
Printed
LEDs
Printed
complex
circuitry
Food &
confec-
tionery
Individual
toys &
furniture
Lightweight
components (plastic & noncritical)
Propulsion
components e.g. Fuel Nozzle
(metal & critical)
Structural
lightweight
components
Printed
sensors (p, T, etc.)
Adaptive surfaces &
large body parts
Aerospace
Orbital manufacturing
plants (Spiderfab)
Visual/ Design
prototyping Functional
prototyping Industrial
tooling Grippers
Tool Repair Fixtures
Individualized printed
concrete parts & homes
Mobile Prefab
factories
Moon Fab (Shelters on extra-
terrestrial missions)
Hearing aid
buds
Dental
crowns
Minimal invasive
surgery equipment
Medicated
products
Individual
prostheses
Individual
implants (skull, knee, hip)
Printed contact
lens (glucosemeter)
Printed body
tissue (skin, testing) Printed organs (heart, liver, kidney)
Medical
Surgical
Models
Mouth-
guards
High performance
components (lightweight)
Customized
interior parts
Specialized
Spare parts
Customized
exterior parts
Construction
Seite 20
12.04.2017
In 2020, it will still be challenging to identify type 3 products.
However, type 2 products are significantly easier to identify.
Identification of attractive applications
Type 1
Type 2
Type 3
Low High
High
Low
Medium
Medium
Number of potentially AM suitable parts
Ide
nti
fic
ati
on
ex
pe
ns
es
Type 1 - Product Additive is directly advantageous
or the only manufacturing option
Example: Customized products,
dentures, tool inserts, art
Type 2 - Process Additive is advantageous
in production (same design)
Example: Highly complex
metal housing in small lots
Type 3 - Lifecycle Additive is advantageous
over the product life-cycle
Example: Bracket with
significant re-design
Relative
Occurence
Seite 21
12.04.2017
Uncover AM Potentials Product-related Innovation Fields
Unique technological abilities
2. Multi-material-
ability
1. High geometric
flexibility
3. Manipulation of
material structure
4. Tool-less
manufacturing
Innovation Fields
Material
efficiency Lightweight
design
Flow
optimization Cooling channels
Functional
integration Reduction of
components
Material-
configuration Digital materials,
graded materials
Porous
structures Eject system,
lubrication
Individua-
lization Prosthesis
On-Demand Prototypes,
spare parts
Material
addition Repair
Seite 22
12.04.2017
11:15 – 11:40 Business Case in Medical Industry (II/II) 5
11:00 – 11:15 Tea Break 4
10:35 – 11:00 Business Cases in MEdical Industry (I/II) 3
10:15 – 10:35 Technologies 2
09:45 – 10:15 Application Overview in Medical Industry 1
Agenda
Seite 23
12.04.2017
Technology Landscape
Laser Metal Deposition
Directed Energy Deposition
Material Jetting
Material Extrusion
Stereo- lithography
Digital Light Processing
VAT Photopolymerization
Me
tal
Po
lym
er
Binder Jetting
Ultrasonic AM
Layer Laminate Manufacturing
Sheet Lamination
Selective Laser Melting
Electron Beam Melting
Powder Bed Fusion
Oth
ers
S
an
d,
Cera
mic
,
Con
cre
te, e
tc.
Cold Spray
Future Technologies
e.g. EFAB, EBAM, etc.
Continuous Liquid Interface
Production
Binder Jetting
Material Extrusion
Material Jetting
Other technologies
Aerosoljet
Hybrid Technologies
(subtractive & additive)
Selective Laser Sintering
Seite 24
12.04.2017
Also, the market volume of AM materials is strongly growing and the range of available materials is constantly broadening
AM materials
0
250
500
750
2008 2006 2010 2012 2014 2001 2004 2002
Metal
Plastic
Re
ve
nu
es in
Mio
. $
Year
Source: Wohlers Report 2015
Seite 25
12.04.2017
The market share of metal AM powder of the worldwide powder market amounts to 1%.
The market for powder metallurgy makes up the residual 99%.
AM-metal powder Market share and customer industry
Medical technology
25 %
Automotive 14 %
Aerospace 59 %
Consumer 2 %
Customer industries
Nickel 22 %
Aluminum 12 %
Stainless steel / Stahl
12 %
Titan 37 %
Cobalt-Chrome 14 %
Other 3 %
Market share
Source: Wohlers 2015; SmarTech Markets Publishing 2014
Seite 26
12.04.2017
SLM 71,7 %
LMD 13,0 %
EBM 7,6 %
Hybrid 3,6 %
Others 4,2 %
Company Market share
EOS 25,6 %
Concept Laser 20,0 %
SLM Solutions 11,2 %
Renishaw 4,7 %
3D Systems 3,8 %
Realizer 2,5 %
Sisma 1,8 %
Wuhan Huake 3D 1,1 %
Beijing Long Yuan 0,9 %
Optomec 7,2 %
Trumpf 4,7 %
BeAM/lrepa Laser 0,7 %
RPM Innovations 0,2 %
lnssTek 0,2 %
Arcam 7,6 %
OPM Lab 1,8 %
Matsuura 0,9 %
Xi an BLT 0,5 %
DMG Mori 0,4 %
SLM with 71,7 % has the biggest market share
Market share of AM-metal process
The three biggest producers for SLM- systems are German
Hybrid processes are not yet common, new machines entered the market (e.g. DMG Mori Lasertec 65).
Arcam is the only supplier of EBM- Systems.
Source: Wohlers 2015
Seite 27
12.04.2017
SLM has a dominant position in the AM- Market
Sold systems and share of the processes in the market
Source: Wohlers 2015 SLM EBM LMD Hybrid
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
90 %
100 %
So
ld s
yste
ms
Sh
are
of th
e p
roce
sse
s
Year Year
Seite 28
12.04.2017
Technology Landscape
Laser Metal Deposition
Directed Energy Deposition
Material Jetting
Material Extrusion
Stereo- lithography
Digital Light Processing
VAT Photopolymerization
Me
tal
Po
lym
er
Binder Jetting
Ultrasonic AM
Layer Laminate Manufacturing
Sheet Lamination
Selective Laser Melting
Electron Beam Melting
Powder Bed Fusion
Oth
ers
S
an
d,
Cera
mic
,
Con
cre
te, e
tc.
Cold Spray
Future Technologies
e.g. EFAB, EBAM, etc.
Continuous Liquid Interface
Production
Binder Jetting
Material Extrusion
Material Jetting
Other technologies
Aerosoljet
Hybrid Technologies
(subtractive & additive)
Selective Laser Sintering
Seite 29
12.04.2017
Key patents as well as technological barriers are relevant for the AM Systems market.
Development of AM- system market after expiration of key patents
Patent FDM: US5121329 A
Published: 30. Okt. 1989
Expired: 2009
Industry machine 3D-desktop-printer
During a short timeframe 29 companies have entered the market offering FDM machines.
No comparable development as with FDM. SLS is more complicated and requires expert knowledge in order
to the develop new systems.
Patent: US5597589
Published : 31. Mai 1994
Expired: 28. Jan. 2014
FD
M
SLS
S
LM
Patent: DE19649865 C1
Published : 2. Dec. 1996
Expired: 2016
Experts expect a considerable increase in market participants due to the high market attractiveness
Seite 30
12.04.2017
The production process of the AM- process chain are divers and have considerable impact on the workpiece characteristics
Separation
Wire eroding
Sawing / metal
cutting
Vacuum
Inert gas
atmosphere
(e. g. Argon)
Hot isostatic
pressure (HIP)
CNC-Turning
CNC-Milling
CNC-Drilling
Grinding honing
Blasting
Micro Machining process (MMP)
Flow grinding (AFM)
Lap, polishing
Separation of the workpiece from production platform
Adjustment of material properties e.g. elongation at break
Chipping machining in order to achieve desired dimensions
Additional process in order to achieve surface requirements
Vibratory finishing
Electrical discharge machining
Production process in the AM-process chain
Post processing Production
AM Rough machining Heat treatment Precision machining Quality control
Seite 31
12.04.2017
Future developments of the AM- supply chain
Trial phase
Optimization
Industrialization
Material producer OEM Service
provider AM system producer
Material producer AM system producer
Material producer OEM
AM system producer
Material producer
OEM Tier 1
3D-Printing Center /
Material producer
AM system producer
Material producer
Technological
development Dominant process chain
Service provider
OEM
properties
Prototypes and first trial objects are produced by service providers.
Prototypes are ordered via a service provider.
Series are produced from the OEM himself.
Critical components are produced by the OEM.
Powder is mainly sourced from powder producers
Simple, uncritical components are sourced from suppliers or printing hubs.
OEM 3D-
Hubs Material producer
AM system producer
Material producer Uncritical Components which
have to be produced cheaply and fast are sourced from 3D Hubs.
3D-
printing
center
Seite 32
12.04.2017
Due to the high rate of innovation in the coming years, there are good arguments against in- house production.
Comparison of component souring strategies
Advantage Disadvantage
In-house
Outsourcing + No investment cost + Tested part quality (optional) + No personnel requirement
Quite expansive Higher waiting time Littler influence on process chain Danger of IP infringement No development of know how No process optimization Product liability dangers
+ Direct availability of machines, even when other companies are closed
+ Direct Integration in own production process (shortening of cycle time)
+ Shortening of development process (Time-to-Market-Reduction)
+ Protection of intellectual property + Development of Knowhow + Flexible component range
High investment costs Possibly low utilization ratio Machines lose state of the art quite fast (high
rate of innovation) Highly specialized personnel needed High preparation workload for material change Powder handling Worker protection
Seite 33
12.04.2017
Prepare to take make-or-buy decisions.
Make-or-buy
Additive manufacturing will be performed by specialised service centers, compare
investment casting.
Effect Resources
New generations of industrial printers every
two years.
It is challenging to stay up to date with proprietary
production system.
Parts
Additive manufacturing will be interesting for few
parts only.
Utilisation of owned printers might be low.
Complexity of parts
Parts interesting
for AM
Seite 34
12.04.2017
Know your thresholds and monitor the technology and the market!
Technological and market advancement
Monitor thresholds and tracker Identify thresholds and tracker
Productivity System cost
$
Available materials and costs
Omafra.gov.on.ca
Seite 35
12.04.2017
11:15 – 11:40 Business Case in Medical Industry (II/II) 5
11:00 – 11:15 Tea Break 4
10:35 – 11:00 Business Cases in MEdical Industry (I/II) 3
10:15 – 10:35 Technologies 2
09:45 – 10:15 Application Overview in Medical Industry 1
Agenda
Seite 36
12.04.2017
AM is only limited suitable for this business case.
Executive summary Business model evaluation
A femur component of a knee
implant with standard geometry.
• The EBM process is more cost-
efficient than the SLM process.
• Due to the low quantities AM is
not suitable for this business
process in the next years.
Material & Manufacturing cost
• Reduction of 35 % by 2020
• The process chain changes with
AM but significant advantages
are not expected.
• Atomizing by extern partners
• All post-processing steps
inhouse
What?
Value? • Due to the increasingly longer
life expectancies the knee
implant market will further
grow.
• Market for knee implants will
grow up 10 Bill. US$ until
2021.
• Market with increasing
competitors.
Who?
How?
.
„Additive manufacturing will pave the
way to an entirely new outlook on
medical implants and devices. “ Atin Angrish, Industry Analyst at ZoomRx
Healthcare Research
Source: www.bbraun.de
Seite 37
12.04.2017
Product Opportunity Analysis Product definition
Knee implants are suited for AM and in use for patient customized parts.
Consortium members involved
in discussion
XXX
Application environment Prosthesis – Human Body
Functional requirements Functional surfaces: inner joint surfaces need to be
polished (tribological surface); sometimes open and
rough structure at the interface to bone needed
Bio-Compatibility, Corrosion-Resistance, non-toxic
Material
Material selection CoCr-based Alloys
Titanium Alloy (Ti-6Al-4V)
Additive manufacturing process
considered
Powder bed fusion:
Selective Laser Melting
Electron Beam Melting
AM related design revision Improvements in process chain: fast, easy and
flexible provision of the medical part for the patient;
Supplement in classic process chain
Part description
Knee replacement in a human body.
Case 1: Customization for each
individual case in geometry and load
Case 2: Series production of various
standard sizes with standard
geometry
Picture source: www.conformis.com
What?
Seite 38
12.04.2017
Product Opportunity Analysis Redesign
What?
The AM potential of redesign are not fully used in the standard geometry case.
3d-grenzenlos.de; copyright conformis.de
High alignment to the
bone structure by
customized parts1,4,6
→ less bone removal1
→ individual bone cages support weakened bones6
Bionic and controlled porous structures for good biological adaption
→ higher degree of biocompatibility and biological adaption5
http://bonesmart.org/knee-replacement-surgery
Seite 39
12.04.2017
Product Opportunity Analysis Contrast to conventional product technologies
What?
In the business case: A 3D-printed knee implant with standard geometry is used.
3D-printed Knee Implant
with individual geometry
AM Knee implants are in use for
patient customized parts
Major drivers for AM knee
implant
Less recovery time after surgery
Less revision surgeries4
Better biological adaption
Major drawbacks
Long-term studies do not exist
yet
Higher production cost
3D-printed Knee Implant
with standard geometry
Using AM to manufacture the
knee implants with boundary
sizes could be more economic
than the cast process
Benchmark
Cast and milled knee implant
with standard geometry
Most knee implants have
standard geometries
Different implant sizes for
different patient sizes
Less need for very small and
very large knee implants
(boundary sizes)
17
Proposed Application Focus
19 Picture source: www.3dprintingsystems.com Picture source: www.conformis.com Picture source: www.bbraun.de
Seite 40
12.04.2017
Melted powder material reach better material properties.
Product Opportunity Analysis Summary of material performance*
What?
Workpiece properties Conventional process chain with CoCr Additive process chain with CoCr
Microstructure Dispersion
of second
phase
(brighter
areas)
Porosity identical to milled
and casted parts;
Absence of second phase in
SLM specimen
Relative density > 95 % with partially „bigger“ pores
than SLM
Possible: 99,99 % (approx. 100 %) 11
realistic value for robust production: > 99,8 %
Surface Quality Investment-Cast-Quality
(RA = 1,6 – 6,3 µm) c
Typical for SLM: RA ,min= 6 µm
Shape accuracy: +/-20 µm
Inclusions (Oxides,
Carbides etc.)
Bigger pores, no Inclusions of different
materials; Dispersion of second
(and third) phase
None, but steady Argon Flow in Chamber is
important, because CoCr tends to produce soot
Strength
Hardness
Rp0,2% = 620 MPa; RM = 920 MPa
HV10 375
Rp0,2% = 850 MPa; RM = 1350 MPa
HV10 420
Ductility
Youngs modulus
Break elongation: 4,5 %
Approx. 220GPa
Break elongation: 3-5 %
Approx. 200 GPa =
Casted Milled SLM
50 µm 50 µm 50 µm
11 Metallurgical and interfacial characterization of PFM Co-Cr dental alloys fabricated via casting, milling or selective
laser melting;
C Zollern Feinguss Broschüre;
www.zollern.de/fileadmin/Upload_Konzernseite/Downloads/Brochueren/Casting_and_Forging/Feinguss.pdf
Seite 41
12.04.2017
AM for implants with standard geometry is feasible but benefits of redesign are not used.
Product Opportunity Analysis Comparison of product opportunities
Status-quo Additive Manufacturing
Material • Cobalt-Chrome used for
series with standard
geometry
• Cobalt-Chrome powder is available:
Melted powder material has a finer
microstructure smaller pores result in
homogenized and better material quality
• Titanium possible
Redesign • Various sizes of knee
implants with standard
geometry
• Case individual geometry:
high potential to generate added value
due to redesign
• Case standard geometry:
Redesign not wanted;
Standard designs have to be transferred
into digital model
Seite 42
12.04.2017
This business case focuses on the largest class of knee implants. The number of potential customers is very limited.
Customer opportunity analysis Identification of potential customers Who?
[WERT] [WERT]
Co
un
t
Size distribution right knee Total amount per side 3000 Focus of this
business case
Seite 43
12.04.2017
Due to the increasingly longer life expectancies the knee implant market will further grow.
Customer opportunity analysis Global market forecast Who?
7.2 7.9
10.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Rev
enu
e in
Bill
. US$
World knee implant marketa
CAGR2011-2021: 3,23 %
Own KEX-AG estimation based on:
a Frost & Sullivan, 01.10.2014, Analysis of the Orthopedic Implants Market - Potential Growth in a Mature Market
Seite 44
12.04.2017
The USA and Europe are the key markets for knee implants.
Customer opportunity analysis Estimation of market segment interesting for AM Who?
Percent revenue breakdown by region Of the global knee implants market 2011
USA
53 %
Europe
33 %
Other regions
14 %
7,2 Bill US$4
10 Frost & Sullivan, 01.03.2012, Analysis of the Knee Implants Market Personalized Implants and Minimally Invasive Surgery Lead the Way
4 Frost & Sullivan, 01.10.2014, Analysis of the Orthopedic Implants Market - Potential Growth in a Mature Market
Seite 45
12.04.2017
Customer opportunity analysis Voices from market experts
„Knee replacement surgery is
already one of the most common
hospital procedures performed in the
United States, with over 600,000
surgeries performed each year. Due
to the population staying in the
workforce longer and the rise in
obesity related illnesses, that
number is expected to rise to almost
three million by 2030 “ Scott J Grunewald, Author at
3dprintingindustry
„The knee implants market will grow due
to factors such as increase in the rate of
age related diseases like osteoporosis
and arthritis, diabetes, obesity, ageing
population and injuries related to sports.
However due to technological advances
such as minimal invasive surgery, better
implant materials and better success
rates, even the younger population are
able to undergo knee replacement
surgery. “ transparencymarketresearch
“Gaining market share can be slow
in this business. You have to
educate the surgeons one by one
and get the hospitals to sign off on
anything new. Market share changes
very slowly in this industry.” William J. Plovanic, medical device
analyst for investment bank Canaccord
Genuity
„Additive manufacturing will pave the way
to an entirely new outlook on medical
implants and devices. “ Atin Angrish, Industry Analyst at ZoomRx
Healthcare Research
„Americans are getting older, and
heavier—and both trends are
trouble for the country's knees.“ John Tozzi for BloomberBusiness
Seite 46
12.04.2017
Increasing market with increasing competitors due to personalization trend.
Customer Opportunity Analysis Comparison of customers
Status-quo Additive Manufacturing
Market growth Mature market; still increasing Niche market but increasing
Competition International competition rising due
to additional competition from
personalized additive manufactured
implants
Market
concentration
High market concentration Number of competitors increase
Seite 47
12.04.2017
Value Chain Opportunity Analysis Additive Manufacturing System
Concept Laser
M2 cusingc Arcam Q10d
Building space 250 x 250 x 280 mm 200 x 200 x 180 mm
System fiber laser Electron beam melting
Max. laser power 2 x 200 W, optional 2 x 400 W 3000W
Scanning speed; Build-up rate 4,5 - 7,0 m / s; 2 – 20 cm³ / h 70 cm³ / h
Beam diameter 50 – 500 µm 100 µm
Power consumption 7,4 kW 7 kW
Type of inert gas N2 He
Inert gas consumption < 1 m³/h 1 l/h
Price $750 000,00 USD 600 000,00 €
How?
Focus of the business case Sources:
c concept-laser.de
d Arcam
Seite 48
12.04.2017
Status quo value chain is characterized by a multitude of process steps.
Value Chain Opportunity Analysis Status quo - Value chain
Done by external partner
Generating high polish surface by brushing
Milling the inside radius
Milling the inner contour
Grinding for outer shape
Frictional grinding for surface
Covering areas that should not be blasted
Blasting areas in the inner contour
How?
MachineToolSystems MachineToolSystems Marle.fr hiperteknoloji.com
Forging Grinding Milling Polishing
Casting Cleaning Grit blasting
TU-Dresden progressivesurface.com
Seite 49
12.04.2017
Business Case: Forging/ Casting is done by external partners.
Value Chain Opportunity Analysis Status quo – Market players
Forging/
Casting Polishing Grinding Drilling Milling
How?
Integrator
Specialist
Examples
Seite 50
12.04.2017
No substantial process reduction. AM is an alternative manufacturing technique.
Value Chain Opportunity Analysis Additive manufacturing - Value chain
Typically provided by extern partner
Analogous to conventional process
CAD-model
Oversizing
Slicing
Planning support structures
Building up the femoral component of the knee implant
Removal of support structures and powder
Improving the micro-structure
How?
Grinding Digital
data
(Laser-)
Polishing Atomizing
SLM/ EBM
Process
Heat
treatment
(HIP-ing)
Diego Manfredi et. Al. London Knee Clinic ILT synrocansto.com MachineToolSystems Marle.fr
Analogous to conventional process
Seite 51
12.04.2017
Business Case: The atomizing process is done by external partners.
Value Chain Opportunity Analysis Additive manufacturing – Market players How?
Integrator
Specialist
Examples
Recom-
mendation
Atomizing Grinding (HIP-
ing)
SLM-
Process
(individual
Design)
(Laser-)
Polishin
g
Seite 52
12.04.2017
The process chain changes with AM but significant advantages are not expected.
Value Chain Opportunity Analysis Comparison of value chains
Status-quo Additive Manufacturing
Process
substitution
• Forging/ Casting is done by
external partners
• Forging/ casting process will be
substituted by AM
→ opportunity to become independent of
external partners
• The grit blasting process could be
substituted by AM
Additional
processes
• Additional processes are atomizing,
digital data processing, build up and
heat treatment (HIP-ing)
→ additional expertize is necessary or has
to be done by extern partners
Seite 53
12.04.2017
Characteristics of EBM
Process
Less investment cost
Less operating cost
Value opportunity analysis Comparison of value chain characteristics
Characteristics of EBM
component
Price
Throughput time
Atomizing Heat
treatment EBM
SLM Process Chain
EBM Process Chain
Process Properties
SLM
12
21.280 €*
5,90 hours
Process Chain Lead Process
Additive Manufacturing
(SLM vs. EBM)
Resulting Machine Tool Setup (Basis for invest/ operation calculation)
1x SLM machine
1x EBM machine
Process Properties
EBM
12
19.744 €*
0,36 hours
€ -7%
€ Avg. Sales Price
Production Cost
Annual Quantities
Overall Throughput Time
! Major Performance Improvement
Major Process Improvement
1
Digital
data Grinding
2
In this case, the EBM process is more cost-efficient than the SLM process.
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
0.00
10,000.00
20,000.00
30,000.00
SLM EBM
Tim
e [h]
Cost
[€
/unit]
System
Material cost per unit [€/unit] Operating cost per unit [€/unit] Invest cost per unit [€/unit] Troughput timeper batch [h]Cycle time perunit [h]
Atomizing Digital
data SLM
Heat
treatment Grinding Polishing
1
1 2
Polishing
Source: www.bbraun.de
-94%
*Manufacturing system not fully
utilised by special implant sizes.
Seite 54
12.04.2017
Value opportunity analysis Cost analysis (Manufacturing cost vs. produced units)
At current cost structure no economical use case ( Based on several assumptions). In case of full utilization EBM process converges to reference cost.
Basic parameters:
Reference Cost (assumption) 110 €/unit
Intersection with reference cost EBM: 11.338 units
Approx. steady cost level SLM: 323 %, EBM 99,6 %
relative to reference cost at reference cost
Value?
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1000.00
1200.00
1400.00
1600.00
20
039
258
477
696
811
60
13
52
15
44
17
36
19
28
21
20
23
12
25
04
26
96
28
88
30
80
32
72
34
64
36
56
38
48
40
40
42
32
44
24
46
16
48
08
50
00
51
92
53
84
55
76
57
68
59
60
61
52
63
44
65
36
67
28
69
20
71
12
73
04
74
96
76
88
78
80
80
72
82
64
84
56
86
48
88
40
Costs per unit AM
Costs per unitconventional
Reference cost
Key Insights At current state reference cost can not
be reached at small quantities
In case of full utilization the EBM
manufacturing cost are ~75 % lower
than the SLM cost.
Produced units
€/ unit
Costs per unit
SLM
Costs per unit
EBM
Reference cost
Seite 55
12.04.2017
High potential for future improvement in regard of speed and cost for AM-systems expected.
Value opportunity analysis Technology and market forecast 2020 Value?
Multi-laser usage feasible
New scanning strategies
Improved powder handling in the process
Decrease in material cost strongly depending on supply and demand
Potential price reduction by usage of different powder manufacturing technologies
Assumption for business case: -30 %.
Economies of scale in SLM-system production
Key patents are running out
Margins will drop
Built-up rate SLM Material cost System cost SLM + 100 % - 60 % - 10-50 %
EBM under cost pressure:
EBM-Build-up rate will rise and EBM-system cost will drop
such that Arcam can maintain competitive advantage.
Seite 56
12.04.2017
The SLM process does not converge to the reference cost. The EBM process is more cost-efficient due to the higher build up rate.
Value opportunity analysis Cost comparison 2015 and 2020 Value?
-36 % -35 %
Manufacturing 21.203 €
Material
12.924 €
2015
19.745 €
19.656 €
12.847 €
2020 2015
21.281 €
59 €
13.487 €
77 €
13.546 €
78 €
2020
89 €
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
800.00
900.00
1000.00
20
053
987
812
17
15
56
18
95
22
34
25
73
29
12
32
51
35
90
39
29
42
68
46
07
49
46
52
85
56
24
59
63
63
02
66
41
69
80
73
19
76
58
79
97
83
36
86
75
Costs per unit AM
Costs per unit conventional
Reference cost
Costs per unit SLM
Costs per unit EBM
Reference cost
SLM EBM Produced units
€/ unit
Seite 57
12.04.2017
The EBM process is more cost-efficient than the SLM process. Due to the low quantities AM is not suitable for this business process in the next years.
Value opportunity analysis Comparison of value creation
SLM EBM
Main cost
driver
• Low build up rate
• Low quantities: High investment
cost
• Material cost
• Low quantities: High investment
cost and simultaneously low
utilization
Forecast • Not suitable • Suitable for high quantities
Slide 58
Additive Manufacturing
Your Contact
Myron Graw
Partner
KEX Knowledge Exchange AG
Tel.: +49 241 51031 615
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