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8/9/2019 Market Update 11 July 10
1/13
Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
S&P 500 Daily Close
Left Shoulder
Head
Right Shoulder
The head and shoulder pattern the media was widely discussing became a classic bear trap.
(GREEN LINE) Markets follow the path of greatest pain for the most number of people. Therewas too much negativity and talk of broken necklines, so of course Mr. Market had to rip apart
all the new shorts selling the neckline break. Ironically, there may still be a genuine H&S
developing, but its a little more difficult to see and not as clean. (BLUE LINE) Though, thats
probably a good thing in terms of trading a reliable pattern--if its too clean and pretty, it wont
happen!
8/9/2019 Market Update 11 July 10
2/13
Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
S&P 500 Sep e-Minis ~ (120 min.)
y
b
c
w
The move down from the proposed x wave has been difficult to decipher. Because of the way it developed in the
beginning, it remains a reach to label the move an impulse lower, so Im stuck with this sort of wave model.
a
a?
xc
a
b
b?
c?
y ( A )
Y Wave Targets:1000 for 78.6% of w = y
965 for 100% of w = y
931 for 61.8% of w measured from the w conclusion.
REPRINTED from 7/4/2010
8/9/2019 Market Update 11 July 10
3/13
Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
S&P 500 Sep e-Minis ~ (120 min.)
y
b
c
w
This wave count highlighted last week would certainly be the count that achieves that bigger
right shoulder. This model EASILY takes the S&P back to 1150 because a (B)-Wave here
must retrace 60-80% of the (A) Wave. Unfortunately, because of the structure of the waves
down, the precise wave count is impossible to know with any certainty.
a
a
xc
a
b
b
c
y
( A )?
a
b
( B )
c
8/9/2019 Market Update 11 July 10
4/13
Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
S&P 500 Sep e-Minis ~ (120 min.)
y
b
c
a
For instance, there is still THIS ugly bearish possibility which would send the S&P to the mid-
800s within the next several weeks. This model cannot be discounted until the S&P futurescan take out 1080. A break of 1080 would kill this count*.
a
-5-
1
b c
a
b
2
-1-
-2-
3
-3- -4-
* A 1085 break on the S&P Cash would also kil l all those ideas about an unfolding
Impulsive wave from the 1220 highs. We dismissed those ideas awhile ago, but any
further strength should finish them for good.
8/9/2019 Market Update 11 July 10
5/13
Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
S&P 500 Sep e-Minis ~ (120 min.)
y
b
c
w
Im only presenting this triple zig-zag count model to demonstrate the variety of outcomes
still available to the market because of the way the waves developed from the highs.
a
a
xc
a
b
b
c
y
x
z
( A )
( B )
8/9/2019 Market Update 11 July 10
6/13
Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
S&P 500 Sep e-Minis ~ (240 min.)To quote Crash Davis advice to Nuke LaLoosh in Bull Durham: Dont think meat.
Sometimes its best to just pull back and observe the market for what it is. This is a
downtrend that appears to have triggered a large scale head and shoulder top. The
trading bias has been bearish and must remain so. Im nervous about a sharp
bounce back due to excessive short term negativity, which is why I remain only 20%
of Max short position. Highlighted below are short and medium term resistance levels
for the Sep Mini futures. Breaks of these points should lead to pivots higher.
1044
1130
1075
REPRINTED from 7/4/2010
8/9/2019 Market Update 11 July 10
7/13
Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
S&P 500 Sep e-Minis ~ (240 min.)
The market easily sliced through the 1044 resistance point highlighted lastweekend, which allowed the market to pivot to the next level of resistance.
Highlighted here are the support and resistance points of the S&P futures.1054 becomes first level of support for bulls with 1040 becoming more solid
support. First resistance at 1080 is nearby for the bears, a break of whichshould send the market to 1103 if not 1130.
1080
1130
1103
1040
1054
8/9/2019 Market Update 11 July 10
8/13
Dollar Index (Weekly) ~ Inverted H&SBottom?
Just because Head and Shoulder patterns have been mentioned here more
often lately, its probably worth noting this set up. There is definitely thespirit of massive inverted H&S bottom on the DXY. This outcome would
mean continued deflation brought on by the debt bubble unwind.
Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
LeftShoulder
Head
RightShoulder
~ 92.00
8/9/2019 Market Update 11 July 10
9/13
Dollar Index (Weekly)This is my primary count on the DXY at this point. The c wave down was very difficult to countas an impulse. The individual legs of the of the d wave up were very difficult to count as
impulses as well. Therefore, this is the model that remains. It suggests we should see acorrective move lower, with the high 82 area looking like a decent target. When this completes,
we should see a very powerful move higher.
Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
77.69
a
b89.62
( A )
x
w
y
x
74.33
z of c
b
c
d
a
d
e88.71
82.87??
e
( B )
WIDE SPREADPANIC (C)
82.87 would be a 38.2% of c=e target.
Reprinted from 6/27/10
8/9/2019 Market Update 11 July 10
10/13
Dollar Index (Weekly) The action in the DXY has been somewhat predictable. Into the recent 88.71 peak,there was simply much too much bullish sentiment on the widespread belief that the
Euro was going to collapse any day. There was also the evidence of a completedwave structure. A continued pullback/congestion back to 82.87 (or lower) still seems
doable. The bigger picture, though, remains bullish.
Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
77.69
a
b89.62
( A )
x
w
y
x
74.33
z of c
b
c
d
a
de
88.71
82.87??
e
( B )
1 of ( C )
82.87 would be a 38.2% of c=e target.
8/9/2019 Market Update 11 July 10
11/13
Dollar Index (180 min)
Theres actually a decent smaller scale H&S which was activated on the DollarIndex at 85.00. This pattern targets 81.50. Highlighted here is the wave model
that could certainly take the DXY to 81.50s.
Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
-1-?
de
88.71
a
b
-2-?
-3-?
-4-?
-5-
ce
( B )
LeftShoulder
Head
RightShoulder
8/9/2019 Market Update 11 July 10
12/13
Dollar Index (Daily)
Its interesting to observe how the 23.6% retrace formed the neckline and
the 50% retrace provides the target of the H&S top. The 81.50 zone shouldbe extremely solid support.
Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
Left
Shoulder
Head
Right
Shoulder
8/9/2019 Market Update 11 July 10
13/13
DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER
This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any
kind. This report is technical commentary only. The author is NOT
representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading
Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the authorsinterpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not
trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions
opposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information
contained in this commentary is taken from sources the author
believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as to
the accuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you for
information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is
not for everyone.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)
has said about futures trading: Trading commodity futures and
options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND
RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or
options contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford
to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts and
your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should
understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by
thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is
required to give you.
Wave Symbology
"I" or "A" = Grand Supercycle
I or A = Supercycle
or = Cycle
-I- or -A- = Primary
(I) or (A) = Intermediate
"1 or "a" = Minor
1 or a = Minute
-1- or -a- = Minuette
(1) or (a) = Sub-minuette
[1] or [a] = Micro
[.1] or [.a] = Sub-Micro