Market Update 25 July 10

8/9/2019 Market Update 25 July 10

1/13

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 Sep e-Minis ~ (120 min.)

y

b

c w

The predictions of this model have been pretty good so far, so well just keep with it. The awave definitely has the look of an impulse, which suggests it was just the initial wavehigher. If thats correct, then this b wave should find support before (or into) the 1032-1040

zone. The early July lows should hold under this model. The b wave should last a fewweeks before we see the c wave.

a

a

xc

a

b

b

c

y

( A )?

a

b

( B )

c REPRINTED from 7/25/2010


2/13



( Z )

y

b

c

w

Its possible that the b wave has already concluded where I have the a-wave marked, but this ismy preferred shorter term model because a b should have lasted longer. Given this sort ofmodel, its easy to see how very difficult the market call is for the next several weeks. For

instance, longer term we seem destined for an Intermediate (C) wave lower that will be quitedramatic. However, we must first complete the Intermediate (B) wave which makes it look likethis market will work higher over the next few weeks. In the very short term, though, weaknessnext week would not surprise at all as the minor b might need more time to complete . So, itsclear as mud.

a

a

xc

a

b

b

c

y

( A )

a

c

b?

( B )

c

a

b


3/13



( Z )

y

b

c

w

The alternate bullish count would look something like this--it should decisively break the 1100resistance point and move much higher in a very rapid fashion.

a

a

xc

a

b

b

c

y

( A )

a or 1

b or 2

a

c or 3

-1-

-2-


4/13



( Z )

y

b

c

a

A very sharp move higher over the next several days would open up thissort of possibility--an expanding triangle b wave. This would be anauseating count that would leave both bulls and bears in tears. Theresulting c wave after this conclusion would be a more docile affairand not a dramatic decline. This model would yield months of congestionbetween 1000 and 1200.

a

-a-

c

a

b

-b-

-c-

d

be

-c-

-a-

-b-


5/13



After breaking our first level resistance at 1080, the market found serious trouble intothe second resistance level of 1103, reversing at a high of 1099.25. First and secondlevels of support remain unchanged for this week. A break below 1054 should causethe futures to swing down to 1040 which should be a good support as the 61.8%retracement and a classical chart pivot. 1089 and 1100 are first and second levelresistance points for this week, breaks of which should send the market even higher.

1089

1100

1040

1054

REPRINTED from 7/25/2010


6/13



The market held our first level of support identified last weekend and ricocheted nicely, though it failed totake out key resistance at 1100. A break of 1103 this week should pivot the market to 1130. A breakbelow 1084 should send the market back to 1061. The S&P futures have broken a downtrend line, whichis bullish.

1103

1170

1061

1084

Bullish Channel Break

1130


7/13


S&P 500 Daily ~ A bullish H&S developing?

I wonder if we get yet another possible head and shoulder formation that fails JohnnyRetail again.

Left Shoulder

Head

Right Shoulder


8/13

Dollar Index (180 min)

The move down from 88.71 does not yet have a completed look and its now developing in an odd way. It makes mebelieve were seeing one of those bow tie shaped seven-legged corrections that Neely has dubbed diametrics. The H&Starget here was 81.50 and that level still seems within reach. Longer term the picture remains bullish the DXY, but it lookslike we have several more trading days before completing the wave lower.


d

e88.71

a

b

ge

( B )

LeftShoulder

Head

RightShoulder

c

d

e

f



9/13

Dollar Index (180 min)

Under this proposed count, which is a diametric, the g-wave should not exceed thelength of the e-wave, which means we shouldnt see price action below 81.00. Whenthis (B) wave concludes, we should see a powerful move higher in the DXY.


d

e88.71

a

b

g

e( B )

LeftShoulder

Head

RightShoulder

c

d

e

f?


10/13

Dollar Index (Daily) ~ Big Cup and Handle?


CUP

Handle

This looks like a textbook Cup and Handle formation on the DXY Daily. Its acontinuation pattern and would be considered bullish.

Sidenote: Its funny that Jesse, the Chief of Gold Conspiracy theories atjessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com, has yet to mention this cup and handle after focusing on the

same pattern for weeks on end when it applied to the Gold market. I guess if a pattern doesnt fitthe bias, it doesnt get mentioned.


11/13

Gold August Futures Daily


- C -

This bullish count cannot be dismissed until $1,168 is taken out. The possibility of aan expanding triangle -E- wave is still alive and well here. This is not my primarywave count, but bears MUST be cognizant of this model because it would be quiteexplosive as the market would easily exceed $1,300.

( A )

( B )

( D )

( C )

( E )

- D -

( A )

( B )

( C )

c( D )

a

c

d

be

1168

a

b

( E ) of - E -SPIKE TOP



12/13

Gold August Futures Daily


- C -

( A )

( B )

( D )

( C )

( E )

- D -

( A )

( B )

( C )

a

c

d

be

1168

a

b

( E ) of - E -SPIKE TOP

1

2

3

4

5

c

( D )

This remains the bullish count and it has not yet been dismissed.Gold bears have failed to take out key support at $1,168. Theshorter term trend must still assume to be down, but 1220 and 1230look like first and second resistance points. Breaks of those levels

to the upside should send Gold shorts to the sidelines.

1220-1230


13/13

DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of anykind. This report is technical commentary only. The author is NOTrepresenting himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading

Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the authorsinterpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may nottrade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positionsopposite of what may by inferred by this report. The informationcontained in this commentary is taken from sources the authorbelieves to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as tothe accuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you forinformation purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is

not for everyone.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)has said about futures trading: Trading commodity futures andoptions is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX ANDRISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures oroptions contracts, you should consider your financial experience,goals and financial resources, and know how much you can affordto lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. Youshould understand commodity futures and options contracts andyour obligations in entering into those contracts. You shouldunderstand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading bythoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker isrequired to give you.

Wave Symbology

"I" or "A" = Grand SupercycleI orA = Supercycleor = Cycle-I- or -A- = Primary(I) or (A) = Intermediate"1 or "a" = Minor1 or a = Minute-1- or -a- = Minuette(1) or (a) = Sub-minuette[1] or [a] = Micro[.1] or [.a] = Sub-Micro

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Market Update 25 July 10

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