16
Market Update Outlook 2019
Market UpdateOutlook 2019
www.panin-am.co.id
Our Forecast (in November 2018)
2
Indonesia’s Forecast 2018E 2019E
IDR 14,500 14,200
JCI 6,500 7,400
Inflation 3.8% 3.8%
7-DRRR 6%-6.25% 5.5%
GDP growth 5.2% 5.4%
10-YR Gov’t Yield 7.25%-7.5% 6.5% – 7%
Assumptions for 2019 Forecast
Oil Price (Brent) USD 60/barrel
Coal Price USD 100/mt
10-YR US Gov’t Yield 2.8%
Fed Rate 2.5%-2.75%
www.panin-am.co.id
Our Forecast (in November 2018)
3
Indonesia’s Forecast 2019E
IDR 14,200
JCI 7,400
Inflation 3.4 %
7-DRRR 5.5%
GDP growth 5.4%
10-YR Gov’t Yield 6.5% – 7%
Assumptions for 2019 Forecast
Oil Price (Brent) USD 60/barrel
Coal Price USD 100/mt
10-YR US Gov’t Yield 2.8%
Fed Rate 2.5%-2.75%
www.panin-am.co.id 4
Global - Pertumbuhan ekonomi Amerika dan global melemah- Perang Dagang akan masih berkelanjutan+ Suku bunga Fed sudah mencapai puncaknya+ USD cenderung melemah+ Harga Minyak turun di kisaran 50—60 USD+ Harga CPO sudah mulai naik-/+ Harga Batu bara stabil di 100 USD+ Sentimen investor untuk investasi di Emerging Market mulai positif
Domestik+ Resiko Politik semakin menurun menjelang dan sesudah April 2019+ Pendapatan dan konsumsi masyarakat mengalami peningkatan+ Tekanan pada Current Account Deficit melonggar+ Tekanan pada Rupiah melonggar+ Kebijakan pemerintah untuk meningkatkan partisipasi swasta untukmendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi
Outlook Makro Ekonomi
www.panin-am.co.id 5
Outlook Pasar Modal Indonesia+/- Capital Flow ke pasar modal Indonesia sudah mulai masuk, namun masih sangat “opportunistic”.- Pencatatan China A shares akan mempengaruhi porsi sahamIndonesia dalam alokasi investasi global.+/- Valuasi harga saham Indonesia dibandingkan dengan regional emerging market “fair”- Pasar saham Cina dan regional lainnya sudah mengalami koreksi
signifikan.+ Sejak Mei 2017 s/d Oktober 2018 terjadi Outflow signifikan daripasar saham Indonesia, sehingga Indonesia relatif “underowned”+ Laba perusahaan mulai mengalami peningkatan+ Peran investor domestik semakin besar
www.panin-am.co.id 6
-900
-400
100
600
1100
1600
-300
-100
100
300
500
700
Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
Coal, Oil, and Crude Palm Oil Price (Dec 2008=100) and Net Export Value (USD million)
Net Export in USD Million - RHS Coal Newcastle - LHS Oil-Brent - LHS CIF Current Month - LHS
Trade balance is significantly driven by commodity price (Oil, Coal and CPO)
www.panin-am.co.id 7
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1-J
an-1
6
1-M
ar-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
1-J
ul-
16
1-S
ep
-16
1-N
ov-
16
1-J
an-1
7
1-M
ar-1
7
1-M
ay-1
7
1-J
ul-
17
1-S
ep
-17
1-N
ov-
17
1-J
an-1
8
1-M
ar-1
8
1-M
ay-1
8
1-J
ul-
18
1-S
ep
-18
1-N
ov-
18
1-J
an-1
9
Pe
rce
nta
ge (
%)
Global Index Return(2016=0)
Brazil
Indonesia
U.K.
Japan
China
Turkey
Argentine
South Korea
US (DJIA)
Australia
India
South Africa
JCI is among the best performer in global stock market since 2016
www.panin-am.co.id 8
(50,00)
(30,00)
(10,00)
10,00
30,00
50,00
70,00
90,00
110,00
Global Index Return(2016=0) in USD
Brazil
U.S (DJIA)
AustraliaSouth Korea
Indonesia
Japan
U.K
China
Turkey
Argentine
South Africa
India
JCI is among the best performer in global stock market since 2016,… even in USD term
www.panin-am.co.id
(10,00)
(6,00)
(2,00)
2,00
6,00
10,00
14,00
18,00
22,00
26,00
30,00
34,00
38,00
42,00
46,00
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
De
c-1
7
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
De
c-1
8
Jan
-19
Pe
rce
nta
ge (
%)
Regional Index Return(2017=0)
Thailand
Philippines
Singapore
India
South Korea
Malaysia
China
Indonesia
Japan
9
Source: Bloomberg, Panin AM
JCI is also among the best performer in regional stock market since 2017
www.panin-am.co.id 10
-2,5%
-2,0%
-1,5%
-1,0%
-0,5%
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%Ja
n-1
7
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
De
c-1
7
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
De
c-1
8
Jan
-19
EM Capital Flow to Equity as % of Market Cap
India
South Africa
Indonesia
Philippines
Malaysia
Brazil
JapanTurkey
Thailand
South Korea
While…. Foreign had sold Indonesia stocks since May 2017 until Oct 2018
www.panin-am.co.id 11
Source: Bloomberg, Panin AM
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
5-J
an-1
8
15
-Jan
-18
25
-Jan
-18
4-F
eb
-18
14
-Fe
b-1
8
24
-Fe
b-1
8
6-M
ar-1
8
16
-Mar
-18
26
-Mar
-18
5-A
pr-
18
15
-Ap
r-1
8
25
-Ap
r-1
8
5-M
ay-1
8
15
-May
-18
25
-May
-18
4-J
un
-18
14
-Ju
n-1
8
24
-Ju
n-1
8
4-J
ul-
18
14
-Ju
l-1
8
24
-Ju
l-1
8
3-A
ug-
18
13
-Au
g-1
8
23
-Au
g-1
8
2-S
ep
-18
12
-Se
p-1
8
22
-Se
p-1
8
2-O
ct-1
8
12
-Oct
-18
22
-Oct
-18
1-N
ov-
18
11
-No
v-1
8
21
-No
v-1
8
1-D
ec-1
8
11
-Dec
-18
21
-Dec
-18
31
-Dec
-18
10
-Jan
-19
Be
st P
/E R
atio
12M Fwd P/E (Best P/E Ratio)
India
JapanU.S.
Indonesia
Thailand
Germany
China
Brazil
South Korea
Philippines
Malaysia
Indonesian stocks’ valuation is relatively “fair” compare to it’s peer
www.panin-am.co.id 12
100
200
300
400
500
600
-6500
-4500
-2500
-500
1500
3500
5500
Ap
r-1
2
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jul-
18
Oct
-18
IDR
USD
Mill
ion
sIndonesia Net Flow to Equity v IDX 30 Index
Net Flow to Equity (in USD Millions) - LHS IDX30 Index (in IDR) - RHS
Since 2017, Indonesian index is less correlated to foreign capital flow
www.panin-am.co.id 13
2013-2016
Dow Jones
Malaysia (FTSE Malay) 0.396
Hongkong (Hang-seng) 0.486
Singapore (STI) 0.546
Thailand (SET) 0.402
Japan (Nikkei 225) 0.528
Indonesia JCI Index 0.335
Indonesia IDX 30 0.318
2017
Dow Jones
Malaysia (FTSE Malay) 0.177
Hongkong (Hang-seng) 0.191
Singapore (STI) 0.311
Thailand (SET) 0.151
Japan (Nikkei 225) 0.544
Indonesia JCI Index -0.059
Indonesia IDX 30 -0.063
2018
Dow Jones
Malaysia (FTSE Malay) 0.356
Hongkong (Hang-seng) 0.529
Singapore (STI) 0.540
Thailand (SET) 0.402
Japan (Nikkei 225) 0.697
Indonesia JCI Index 0.243
Indonesia IDX 30 0.192
Since 2017, Indonesian index is less correlated to foreign capital flow …..
www.panin-am.co.id 14
(120.000)
(80.000)
(40.000)
0
40.000
80.000
120.000
160.000
200.000
240.000
(120.000)
(80.000)
(40.000)
0
40.000
80.000
120.000
160.000
200.000
240.000
Jan
-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-
13Se
p-1
3N
ov-
13
Jan
-14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-
14Se
p-1
4N
ov-
14
Jan
-15
Mar
-15
May
-15
Jul-
15Se
p-1
5N
ov-
15
Jan
-16
Mar
-16
May
-16
Jul-
16Se
p-1
6N
ov-
16
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-
17Se
p-1
7N
ov-
17
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-
18Se
p-1
8N
ov-
18
IDR
Bill
ion
IDR
Bill
ion
Indonesia Net Foreign Flow, M1 and Mutual Funds Flow (12 Months Trailing)
Indonesia Money Supply (M1) YoY Changes (RHS)
Indonesia Net Foreign Flow 12 months Rolling Sum (LHS)
Net Mutual Fund Flow (RHS)
…Why?.. Because domestic investors are increasing their role.
www.panin-am.co.id 15
Source: Bank Indonesia, PAM
- Foreign Inflow akan masuk di pasar saham pada awal tahun2019, tapi aliran dana akan sangat oportunistis. Sebaliknyaforeign inflow pada pasar obligasi lebih stabil seperti ditahuntahun sebelumnya.
- Lokal Investor semakin besar perannya di pasar modal- Laba Perusahaan di Indonesia dalam siklus pertumbuhan,
seiring dengan: membaiknya pendapatan dan konsumsimasyarakat, menurunnya resiko politik, meningkatnyakestabilan finansial dan kebijakan pemerintah yang lebihmelibatkan sektor swasta.
House View
www.panin-am.co.id 16
Source: Bank Indonesia, PAM
Setiap reksadana memiliki stategy yang berbeda dalam mengantisipasi“house view”.Maksima: Full invest, less timing, leveraged and conviction in high potential upside in md/small cap.Ultima: Neutral on foreign flow, high conviction in stock picking.Prima: Riding on ST foreign inflow and dynamic in sector allocationTeladan: Multi strategy, riding on ST flow, take opportunity on earnings surprise and short term contrarian.
