MarketCast Trends 2
Finding insights from Tenet and Mulan social conversations
As summer turns to fall and our kids get ready to go back to school (well, sort of), all eyes in Hollywood are once again fixed on this weekend’s releases of Warner Bros.’ Tenet and Disney’s Mulan. The fate of these two titles has hung in the balance for months as hopes for quick and speedy recovery from COVID-19 were dashed as cases surged and re-openings curbed.
With Tenet now marking the reopening of many movie theaters in the U.S. (except for many major markets), its box office draw will surely be viewed as an early indication of whether Americans are ready to go back to the theater during an ongoing pandemic.
On the flipside, Disney’s bold decision to move Mulan to Disney+ at a $30 price point will be seen as a watershed moment for the future of direct-to-consumer content.
But, what will fans actually do? Are they ready to head back to theaters? Will they accept a $30 price point for PVOD? To shed light on some of these questions, MarketCast is monitoring millions of social media conversations to tease out the following fandom insights about these two titles.
Additionally, we are sharing datapoints from the latest MarketCast COVID-19 Impact Report which studies the effect of the pandemic and theater closures on movie consumption.
INTRODUCTION
1 2 3 4 5Social media volume for Tenet is more than twice the average for major theatrical releases.
Mulan social media volume is higher than any other PVOD release this year.
Both movies are tracking below the MarketCast social media norms for intent-to-see this weekend.
Some Mulan fans are concerned about the price point on Disney+, and may hold out for a price drop.
The Tenet audience is mostly concerned about returning to the theater during the pandemic.
KEY TAKE-AWAYS
MarketCast Trends 3
Tenet social media volume is tracking more than twice the average for major theatrical releases.
For major theatrical movies one week prior
to release.
Reporting Period: August 24-31, 2020
Measured across all social media
platforms.
161KSOCIAL POSTS
2.5xAVERAGE
Tenet SocialMedia Volume
MarketCast Trends 4
Mulan social media volume is tracking higher than any other PVOD releases in 2020.
Measured across all social media
platforms.
65KSOCIAL POSTS
3x
Mulan SocialMedia Volume
Reporting Period: August 24-31, 2020
AVERAGE
For family PVOD movie releases in 2020, including
Scoob and Trolls 2
MarketCast Trends 5
Percentage of social conversations that indicate a holdback to viewing. Tenet holdbacks are concerned about returning to theaters; Mulan holdbacks are concerned about the price point.
Holdbacks to Viewing
Are concerned about going back to the theater
Are concerned about the price of the movie on-demand
NOV 2019 JUN 2020
Reporting Period: August 24-31, 2020
12%
6%
MarketCast Trends 6
Percentage of consumers who specifically indicate (in their social media posts) they will watch Tenet in movie theaters or will purchase Mulan on Disney+.
Intent to See
Tenet
Mulan
NOV 2019 JUN 2020
Reporting Period: August 24-31, 2020
3%
8%
MarketCast Trends 7
Reporting Period: August 24-31, 2020
Social Buzzby U.S. Region
Tenet social buzz is higher in the Midwest, with a higher volume of posts about early reviews. Tenet is also generating more social conversation in the Northwest and in markets with more Black and Hispanic audiences.
Mulan is slightly bigger in the Southwest and equals Tenet in New York and Los Angeles. With theaters slower to open in these major metros, Mulan may be the only option for audiences in these markets.
MarketCast Trends 8
Moviegoers still hesitant about returning to theatersAccording to MarketCast’s ongoing COVID-19 movie impact study, well over half of respondents say they wouldn’t go to see a movie they were interested in watching if theaters reopened tomorrow.
• Men and younger audiences continue to show more openness to returning in theaters in the immediate future.
• Hispanics, African Americans and other audience segments heavily impacted by COVID-19 are more reluctant to return to the theater right away.
“ I f movie theaters reopened tomorrow and there was a movie playing that you wanted to see, what would you do?”
Source: 2020 Coronavirus MovieImpact Exploration
60%
29%
11%
I still wouldn’t go to the movie theater
I would consider going to the movie theater
I definitely would go to the movie theater
MarketCast Trends 9
VOD continues to be a solid alternative to watching movies as theaters remain closedClose to 2/3 of of respondents say they have ‘rented or purchased more movies digitally’ because of the pandemic.
• Men 35-49, parents (especially dads), and those making $60k+ are the most ‘regular’ VOD renters.
• 1/3 of men and women under 35 years old describe themselves as “occasional VOD renters.”
“Has the current COVID-19 situation made you more l ikely to rent or purchase digital ly?”
Source: 2020 Coronavirus MovieImpact Exploration
62%
38%
Yes, I have rented or purchased more movies digitally
No, it has made no difference
MarketCast Trends 10
Audiences are willing to pay a premium to watch new movies on-demand
“ I f theaters opened and you had the option for a movie you wanted to see of going to the theater or paying a premium to rent at home digital ly, what would you do?”
Source: 2020 Coronavirus MovieImpact Exploration
• More people would currently pay to watch a new movie on demand than venture back into theaters during the pandemic.
• 20% indicate they would be willing to pay up to $19.99 for a premium title, a number that has remained steady throughout multiple waves of research.
24%
29%
48%
I would see it at a theater
I would rent it digitally at a premium price
I would wait until it was available to rent at the usual lower price
MarketCast Trends 11
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Our unique combination of machine-driven insights and people-powered analysis provides the data points needed to understand whether movie and TV content, marketing campaigns, and fan experiences are hitting or missing the mark, as well as identifies new ways to engage and nurture fans. To learn more about MarketCast’s Real-Time Analytics, click here:
www.marketcast .com/real-t ime-analytics/
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Ben CarlsonSVP & General Manager of Entertainment, [email protected]