Marketing Research at the Turn of the Decade: Four Key Trends that Affect

Research

Presentation to the Ottawa Chapter of

the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association

June 11, 2009

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Marketing Research : Four Key Trends that Affect Research

1. Our Society: Diverse in Many Ways

2. The Future of Telephone Surveys: Change is in the Air

3. The Rise of Online Research

4. Rethinking Online Research

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1. Diversity: the following socio-economic indicators of diversity will affect marketing research:

- diverse in culture (country of birth; language(s) spoken)- diverse in education (including level of literacy, numeracy)- diverse in income- diverse in age

These factors are distributed unevenly across regions of Canada

A seven community comparison approach follows…

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Our Diverse Society: Large Centres, Not-so-large Centres and Small Centres (in 000s)

(2006 Census of Canada)

5133

2166

1130716

106 33 160

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

16.0% 16.1%

18.4%

19.8%

7.2%8.4%

10.5%

11.9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1981 1991 2001 2006

Immigrant Speaks Neither English/French at Home

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Our Diverse Society: % Immigrants & % Persons Speaking Neither French Nor English at Home: 1981 to 2006

(Census of Canada)

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Our Diverse Society: % of Population in Seven Centres that Cannot Speak Either of Canada’s

Official Languages (2006 Census of Canada)

0.0%0.3%0.2%0.2%

1.0%

5.2%

4.2%

1.7%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7

Our Diverse Society: % of Persons 15 Years or Over with No Certificate, Diploma or Degree in Seven

Centres (2006 Census of Canada)

29.3%28.8%30.6%

17.5%17.7%17.3%19.7%

23.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

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Our Diverse Society: % of the Adult Population 16 and over at Proficiency Level 1 or Lower

25.5%

19.9%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Numeracy

Prose Literacy

Building on our Competencies: Canadian Results of the International

Adult Literacy and Skills Survey, Statistics Canada, 2003

Level 1 “Prose  Literacy”Ability to “read relatively short text to locate

a single piece of information…”

Level 1 “Numeracy”“Simple, one-step operations… counting,

sorting dates… simple arithmetic operations or understanding common or simple

percents such as 50%.”

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Our Diverse Society: % of Population 65 and Over in Seven Centres Across Canada (2006 Census of Canada)

19.3%16.9%17.7%

11.7%12.8%11.9%13.7% 14.4%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

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2.The Future of Telephone Surveys: Change is in the Air

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2. The Future of Telephone Surveys: the Challenge of Cell-Only Households

1.9% 2.5%

4.8% 5.0%6.4%

3.2%

5.0%

7.7%

11.8%

14.5%

20.2%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

M 2003 M 2004 D 2005 D 2006 D 2007 D 2008

Canada

US

Sources: Centre for Disease Control and Prevention: National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), Mediamark Research Inc. and Statistics Canada: Residential Telephone Service Survey (RTSS)

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2. Proportion of Households with Cell-Only, by Region, December 2007

5%

6%

5%

6%

8%

10%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC

Sources: Statistics Canada: Residential Telephone Service Survey (RTSS)

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The Rising Phenomenon of the Wireless Mostly Household: USA

12.6%

14.0% 14.4%15.4%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2007-June 2007-Dec 2008-Jun 2008-Dec

Source: Centre for Disease Control and Prevention: National Health Interview Survey (NHIS)

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19%

15%

2%64%

wireless only

wireless mostly

none

landline mostly/all

The Shrinking Landline Population: Households in the USA, December 2008

Source: Centre for Disease Control and Prevention: National Health Interview Survey (NHIS)

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2. The Future of Telephone Surveys: Other Challenges Influencing Response Rates

• call screening

• expansion of the marketing research industry

• fatigue

• poor survey practices

Best Practices in Public Opinion Research: Improving Respondent Cooperation for Telephone Surveys http://www.tpsgc-pwgsc.gc.ca/por/text/pebptel-e.html

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2. The Future of Telephone Surveys: Implications of Declining Response Rates

• Cost of surveys to increase

• To date, validity of surveys not at risk (Ambrose and Halpenny, 2006)

• Extremely low levels (below 10%) raise risk of non- response bias from hard-to-reach segments (young or

below-average education)

D. Ambrose, G. Halpenny, Whither Response Rates: Do They Still Matter? Presentation to the MRIA Annual Conference 2006

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2. The Future of Telephone Surveys: Implications of Rising Proportion of Cell-Only Households

• RDD Sampling will no longer be a complete frame

• This is likely to be especially acute among single-person households, better-educated respondents and if US trendshold true in Canada, younger and lower-income

• Telephone samples will have to include cell numbers

• Impact on length of interview and costs

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3. The rise of online research

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The Rise of Online: Proportion of Billings for Quantitative Research in Canada, 2006 and 2007

21.1% 17.0%

49.4%44.5%

29.5%38.5%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2006 2007

Online

Telephone

Other

Source: Marketing Research and Intelligence Association

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Proportion of Canadians with Home Internet Access1997 through 2007

28%

44%51%

59% 62%67%

72% 75% 79%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007

Source: Ekos Research Associates, Rethinking the Information Highway

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4. Online Research: Meeting the Challenge of a Still Imperfect Instrument

93%

79%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Landline Online

New Technologies and Government of Canada Communications, Agriculture and Agrifood Canada,2008and Statistics Canada: Residential Telephone Service Survey (RTSS)

Maximum Reach of Landline vs. Online

Nonresponse bias is the key issue rather than low response rates per se:

“Hence, there is little empirical support for the notion that low response rate surveys de facto produce estimates with high nonresponse bias.”

Nonresponse Rates and Nonresponse Bias in Household SurveysRobert M. GrovesPublic Opinion QuarterlyVolume 70/Special Issue 2006/Number 5/pp. 646-675

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Main Reasons for Not Using Internet

New Technologies and Government of Canada Communications, Agriculture and Agrifood Canada, 2008, 426 respondents who did not have access to the Internet (weighted), telephone survey

12%

5%

6%

7%

7%

8%

15%

35%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Other

Expense

Not for me

Time

No access

Lack of need

Not computer literate

No computer

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Use of the Internet: by Age Group“Yes” response to “Do you personally use the Internet? This includes using e-mail”

91% 87%

59%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

16 to 34 35 to 54 55 and overNew Technologies and Government of Canada Communications, Agriculture and Agrifood Canada,2008, Telephone survey of sample of 1,718 respondents (weighted data)

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7%

31%

41%

19%15%

34%

44%

7%

15%

34% 34%

17%

0%

20%

40%

16 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 65 andover

Telephone Online 2006 Census

New Technologies and Government of Canada Communications, Agriculture and Agrifood Canada,2008,Telephone and online samples; Statistics Canada, 2006 Census of Canada

Comparison of Unweighted Telephone and Online

Samples with the Census: by Age

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Use of the Internet: by Education“Yes” response to “Do you personally use the Internet? This includes using e-mail”

49%

74%83%

91% 88%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

New Technologies and Government of Canada Communications, Agriculture and Agrifood Canada, 2008, Telephone survey of sample of 1,718 respondents (weighted data)

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13%

25%27%

35%

4%

24%27%

45%

15%

24%

33%

28%

0%

20%

40%

<HS HS Completion Trade/College University

Telephone Online 2006 Census

New Technologies and Government of Canada Communications, Agriculture and Agrifood Canada,2008,

Telephone and online samples; Statistics Canada, 2006 Census of Canada

Comparison of Unweighted Telephone and Online Samples: by Education

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Challenges

• Canadian society diverse• Generation gap and wide disparities in

education• Literacy and numeracy • Numerous issues facing telephone surveys• Cell-only and cell-mostly households an

issue

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Challenges (continued)

• Decline in landline coverage trails US • Internet rising but lacks full coverage• Nonresponse bias as well as low response

rates• Education and Age Factors