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Markets chartpack
February 2007
Retail Trade – Retail Sales grew less than expected in November and are up 6.7% over the past 12 months. Retail trade has grown by 7.2% over the year.
Employment – the December report was strong – 44,600 jobs were created. In the past year employment has risen 3%. The unemployment rate was 4.6%.
Inflation – Headline CPI fell by 0.1% in the December quarter (the first fall since the March quarter of 1999). The CPI has increased 3.3% in the past year (down from 3.9% in the year to the September quarter).
Key Australian economic newsJanuary
US Economy
US Federal Reserve appears to be ‘on hold’ – no interest rate increases expected.
Continued signs of softness in manufacturing
Housing sector probably has further to fall
However, overall economic growth does not seem under threat
Inflation news continues to be good
“We remain of the view that the “soft landing” may still turn hard.
But so far there is little to worry about, and markets have responded
accordingly.” BT Chief Economist, Chris Caton
Global indices
1 year (%) 3 years (% pa) 5 years (% pa)
US (S&P 500) 12.36 8.34 4.94
US Tech (Nasdaq)
6.86 6.04 4.96
Japan (Nikkei) 4.41 17.25 11.70
HK (Hang Sang) 27.63 14.80 13.39
Germany (DAX) 19.65 18.71 5.86
France (CAC) 13.35 15.52 4.68
Australia
S&P/ASX 300 22.50 26.05 15.56
Small companies
31.76 27.42 19.16
Resources 7.34 34.12 23.71
Listed Property 38.86 26.78 20.34Source: BT Financial Group. Figures as at 31 January 2007.
Asset class performance
Source: S&P/ASX 300 Acc Index, MSCI World ex Aust (net divs) Index in $A, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, Citigroup World Government Bond, Unhedged in AUD
Long-term asset class performance
Source: S&P/ASX 300 Acc Index, MSCI World ex Aust (net divs) Index in $A, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, Citigroup World Government Bond, Unhedged in AUD
Source: S&P/ASX 300 Acc Index, MSCI World ex Aust (net divs) Index in $A, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, Citigroup World Government Bond, Unhedged in AUD
Best performing asset class highlighted in red
Asset class performance
Source: S&P/ASX 300 Acc Index, MSCI World ex Aust (net divs) Index in $A, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, Citigroup World Government Bond, Unhedged in AUD
5.9
10.6
19.7
3.5
38.9
22.5
0.9
13.4
25.0
-2.0-505
1015202530354045
Australian Bonds Listed Property Australianshares
Global Bonds InternationalShares
(12 month % return)
31-Jan-06
31-Jan-07
Asset class performance
Currency markets – $A per $US
AUD/USD
0.4500
0.5000
0.5500
0.6000
0.6500
0.7000
0.7500
0.8000
0.8500
Jan 02 Jul 02 Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07
Source: BT Financial Group. Figures as at 31 January 2007.
Currency markets – $A per Euro
AUD/EUR
0.5300
0.5500
0.5700
0.5900
0.6100
0.6300
0.6500
Jan 02 Jul 02 Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07
Source: BT Financial Group. Figures as at 31 January 2007.
Currency markets – $A per Yen
AUD/JPY
58.0000
63.0000
68.0000
73.0000
78.0000
83.0000
88.0000
93.0000
98.0000
Jan 02 Jul 02 Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07
Source: BT Financial Group. Figures as at 31 January 2007.
Oil prices (US$ per barrel)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Source: BT Financial Group. West Texas Intermediate as at 31 January 2007.
Official world interest rates
Current rate Last move Direction of last move
Australia 6.25% November 2006
US 5.25% June 2006
Japan 0.25% July 2006
UK 5.25% January 2007
Canada 4.25% May 2006
Source: BT Financial Group.
2007 Inflation Forecasts (%) Month of Forecast *
Source: Consensus Economics
• * Figures show the consensus expectations as at the month surveyed and over time reveal changes in expectations. ie. Australian inflation expectations for 2007 have declined from 2.8% in the December reading to 2.7% in the latest survey.
2007 World Growth Forecasts (%) Month of Forecast
Source: Consensus Economics
2007 Asian Growth Forecasts (%)
Source: Consensus Economics
Month of Forecast