Markets for beef, markets for land, and why we have to look way beyond coca to understand coca

Liliana M. DávalosJennifer S. HolmesNelly RodriguezDolors Armenteras

Two kinds of questions

Biological diversity

Diversification, decrease Habitat lossincrease

How important are habitats? Schipper et al. 2008 Science

Hoffmann et al. 2011 PTRSBUnderstanding habitat change

Antioquia, Colombia 2010Vaupes, Colombia 2009

Understanding habitat change

Geist & Lambin 2002 BioScienceWhy deforestation?Understanding habitat change

World Bank Statistics 2012Population growth over

timeUnderstanding habitat change

An in-depth look

• Guaviare from 2001-2010

• One of two large foci of Plan Colombia (the other was Putumayo)

• Poor development indicators

• Extractive land uses

Guaviare, Colombia 2008

Understanding habitat change

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Fate of forest, fate of coca Dávalos et al. In Review Global

Environ ChangUnderstanding habitat change

Three explanations

Understanding habitat change

Hamburger! (or steak)Kaimowitz et al. 2004 CIFOR

CocaDávalos et al. 2011 Environ

Sci Technol

Land tenure and propertyHecht 1993 BioScience

If coca were the cause

• Perhaps eradication is the solution

• Great because we can solve coca

Understanding habitat change

coca decrease Eradication

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Figure 4

Calamar

El Retorno

San Jose

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There are cows but no money

• Relationship cows:pasture yields ~ 1.08 cow/ha• This is up to 10X

overestimate• Beef prices have

barely budged• Ranching revenues

have plummeted

Understanding habitat change

Dávalos et al. In Review Global Environ Chang

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Coca declined

• Forest was lost• But coca declined

• Was coca decline caused by fumigation?

• Analyses show no relationship

Dávalos et al. In Review Global Environ Chang

Understanding habitat change

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Why did coca decline?

• Each municipality started out with different amounts of coca

• As the municipalities become more urban, there is less coca

• At ~50% urban population there is 0 coca in the smaller municipalities Dávalos et al. In Review Global

Environ ChangUnderstanding habitat change

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Figure 5

Calamar

El RetornoSan Jose

2010

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What urbanization looks like

• Urban people paying more taxes that finance construction

• Finance becomes important

• Less dependence on ranching (and agriculture)

Dávalos et al. In Review Global Environ Chang

Understanding habitat change

Urban cows!

• Cows enhance claim to the land

• The region is rapidly urbanizing

• Per capita taxes are rising => property values are rising• Clearing the land to

sell in future urban market

Dávalos et al. In Review Global Environ Chang

Understanding habitat change

A disturbing development model

• Development excludes coca• Not eradication

• Development centered on a model of settlement that is destructive• And probably not

peaceful

Guaviare, Colombia 2008

Missing the real pointUnderstanding habitat change

coca nothing More Eradicationdecrease

Urbanization &

Development

becomes

Pasture &

Cowsisproperty

Thanks!

• Funding• CIDER –SBU

• Collaborators conservation & policy• A. Bejarano, A.

Corthals, L. Correa, C. Romero

• Dávalos Lab• P. Connell, M. Hall, E.

Simola, G. Tudda