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MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary
The Institute of Fundraising INSIGHT Special Interest Group
Bob Francis - NSPCCBen Hewitt - MarketShare
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary
Background
2
My Journey to supporting Oxfam
We were measuring what we could measure Econometrics enables us to measure what we should measure
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary
About MarketShare
3
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary
Key Challenges:
•Proliferation of consumer touch points and devices
•Users consumer several media at once
•Increasing importance and share of consumer time spent on digital media
•Reliance on the Internet
•Smarter consumers
Marketing Environment has exploded in complexity
4
2011
Cable TVPersonal ComputerVideo GamesDVRSatellite TV3D TVOnline Radio Online TVBlogsPodcastsBlogsPortalsAd NetworksMMORP GamesInstant MessengersSocial NetworksMobile GamingMobile VideoMobile ComputersEmailSearcheBooksDigital BillboardsNewspapersBroadcast TVMagazinesBroadcast RadioBillboardsMovies
1950
NewspapersBroadcast TVMagazinesBroadcast RadioBillboardsMovies
1990
Cable TVPersonal ComputerVideo GamesNewspapersBroadcast TVMagazinesBroadcast RadioBillboardsMovies
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary
Moving beyond swim lanes
ROI should be measured holistically rather than in silos
“When I add up the ROIs of each silo, the company is twice as big as it actually is.”
Print TV
$
ROI
$
ROI
Display
$
ROI
Search
$
ROI
Social
$
ROI
Print TV Display Search Social
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary
With Severe economic pressures…
6
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary
Decision making is being transformed
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.
•Linking Marketing and Finance
•Predictive data analysis
•Insights translated to actionable recommendations
•Cloud based Business intelligence
•Integration of the value chain from planning to execution and reporting
•Focus on Business Outcomes and Business Optimization
The Future
Source: IBM
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary
We’re experiencing the Perfect Storm
8
.
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary
Moving well beyond first generation of analytics and modeling methods:
• Higher accuracy
• Strong predictability
• Prescriptive actions
• Real-time course correction
• Long and short term effects
• Social media effects
And moving Beyond Analytics 1.0:
MarketShare confidential and proprietary
9
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary
Eco System
10
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary 11
About the Project
• To understand and quantify the effectiveness of NSPCC’s marketing and media spend in driving New Regular and New Cash Donations
• To understand the role of NSPCC’s paid and owned media (website) in driving new donations
• To build models for each response channel to understand the drivers of each
• To optimise the marketing and media mix to generate greater donation value from the same level of investment
Objectives
Methodology
• Using NSPCC’s internal and proprietary data (June 2007 – June 2010)• Donations – Volume and Value• Campaigns and PR• Website data (visitors)• Marketing and Media costs
And data from a variety of other internal & external sources (including search volume
data from Google insights for search) Multiple econometric models (multiplicative logarithmic time
series) were constructed to understand total Marketing response by media channel and inform future optimal media resource allocation
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary 12
Method in Detail
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary
Online Search /Queries
NSPCC Website Traffic
The Economy
Donations
Child Related News & Publicity
Direct RelationshipsDirect Relationships
Indirect RelationshipsIndirect Relationships
Competition / Share of Wallet
Comms AdsAcquisition Ads
DRTV Press Inserts
Online Displa
y
Door drops
Cold mail
Warm mail
Face to face
Door to door
Outbound TM
NSPCC PR
Direct and Indirect response
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary
NSPCC Website Traffic
The Economy
Donations
Child Related News & Publicity
Direct RelationshipsDirect Relationships
Indirect RelationshipsIndirect Relationships
Competition / Share of Wallet
Comms AdsAcquisition Ads
DRTV Press Inserts
Online Displa
y
Door drops
Cold mail
Warm mail
Face to face
Door to door
Outbound TM
NSPCC PR
NSPCC Modelling Framework
Online Search /Queries
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary 15
New Regular Giving Analysis
What are the key drivers of New Regular Giving donors?
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary
Understanding the Drivers of New Regular Giving
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Base Donations 21%
Seasonality 2%
New Regular Giving
Online Brand Interest 6.5%
Social Media 2%
TV Acquisition 30%
Face2Face 15%
Cold telemarketing 11%Door Drops 4%
Other = 8%
Including Publicity
(PR 1.5%)
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary
The Drivers of New Regular Giving Donors
17
* Lift Factor is defined as a measure of responsiveness:elasticity = % change in the outcome for % change in the driver
Acquisition TV is the strongest Marketing Driver, followed by media coverage and campaigning of child abuse issues.
Cold Telemarketing, Face to Face, TV (Comms) and Facebook also appear to significantly drive donations
There are many other drivers positively driving donations including Door Drops and Publicity.
Driver Effectiveness (Lift Factor)
Non-Marketing DriverBlank ColourColour Marketing Driver
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary 18
The Role of Online
Understanding the true contribution of online search and website visits for Regular Giving
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary
Linear Measurement for New Regular Giving
Linear attribution reports:
Don’t understand these channels…..
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary
The models uncover the indirect impact of online
13%
Online search and web-traffic visits are driving two major offline channels: forms and
Inbound
Total impact of online
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary
18%Total online contribution to
Forms donations
Indirect Online impact
Branded Search ‘NSPCC’ is one of the strongest drivers of
donations via Forms
Understanding the value of online driving forms
18% of the NSPCC new regular donations through Door Drops/forms is driven by the web
Drivers of Forms
Better Out Than In – Childline
Brand online Search
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary 22
Using this work to increase donations
The direct/indirect approach enables us to allocate marketing resources in an optimal way
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary
Using the Optimal Media MixScenario 1: Financial Year 2009/2010 (April-March)
With the same budget a more optimal mix delivers a 10% increase in donations
OptimalFY 2009/10
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary 24
Summary
The direct/indirect approach enables us to allocate marketing resources in an optimal way
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary
Summary & Conclusions
25
1 NSPCC’s advertising and marketing investment is performing very well contributing 76% towards new regular giving and cash donors
2Online Search for ‘NSPCC’ and website visitors is driving the offline response channels. Forms and Inbound telemarketing benefit from the halo impact of online
3 TV is the biggest driver of the ecosystem
4The model shows that by realigning the media mix, NSPCC could increase new donations by 8 -10% with the same media expenditure.
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary
This type of work is accessible
26
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary27
Boiling the oceancarve-up the work into a roadmap
No stakeholder buy-ininclude all major stakeholders in process
No clear goaltake more time for discovery
Things to look out for when entering….
MarketShare Partners Confidential and Proprietary
Application of the work
Ecosystem