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8/6/2019 Markovian Method of Finding the Availability of Repairable Systems
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Volume 2 No.5, MAY 2011 ISSN 2079-8407
Journal of Emerging Trends in Computing and Information Sciences
©2010-11 CIS Journal. All rights reserved.
http://www.cisjournal.org
243
Markovian Method of Finding the Availability of Repairable Systems
M. Y. AshkarDepartment of Mathematics,
University of Bahrain, PO Box 32038,Kingdom of Bahrain.
ABSTRACT
In this paper the transition probability matrix is used to tackle the problem of the availability of repairable systems. The
method is applicable to a system governed by a two-parameter distribution for the life-time and repair-time. It will be
concentrated on the Weibull and Gamma distributions without and/or with singularities. The method is involving matrices
multiplication of massive size. For this purpose an arithmetic method is applied to carry out this multiplication that, in turn,
represents the availability of a repairable system.
Keywords: Point of Availability, Markovian Method, Transition Matrix 1. INTRODUCTION
The Availability or point-availability term is
insufficient to know about how many times a device has
been replaced or repaired upon failure. However we areinterested in the condition of such item, working or failure
so it is under repair. In fact the device may be replaced
on daily base or more than once a day or it could have
never been replaced at all. Other measurement is still
important and needed, such as the device's reliability. So
the relationship between reliability, maintainability and/or
availability is very strong and important, Ascher [1],
Ashkar [2], Barlow [3], Kapur [8] and Leemis [15].For a repairable system, the life-time cycle can be
described by a sequence of up and down states, i.e.
working and under repair. So the system operates until it
fails, then it is repaired (or replaced, if its replacement cost
less and save more time) and is returned to its original
operating state, this process will continue alternating
between these two states for sufficient time and this
process is called a renewal process. It is a sequence of
independent random variables, Ashkar [2] and Cox [4]. In
this case, the random variables are the time-to-failure and
the time-to-repair. Each time a device fails and is repaired,
a renewal is said to have occurred. This type of renewal
process is known as an Alternating Renewal Process because the state of the device alternates between a
functioning (up-state) and under repair (down-state), Cox
[4]. This process is illustrated as shown in figure1
Ashkar[2].
Figure 1 illustrates the nature of alternating of a system
between up-time (operating) and down-time (under repair)
over the time.
The assumptions in the renewal theory is that the
failure items are replaced or repaired with new ones so
they are "as good as new" hence the name 'renewal' isobtained, Kijima [12], [13], Elsayed [6] and Leemis [15].
The availability, as a definition, is somewhat
flexible and is largely based on what types of down-times,
or under repair, one chooses to consider in the analysis.
There are number of different classifications of
availability, such as, Instantaneous (or Point) Availability,
Average up-time Availability and Steady State
(Asymptotic) Availability Kececioglu [10], [11].
The instantaneous availability, or point
availability, is defined as the probability that a system will
be in operation at any random time, t . This is very similar
to the reliability function where it gives a probability that asystem will function at the given time, t . Unlike reliability,
the instantaneous availability measure incorporates
maintainability information. At any given time, t , the
system will be operational if the item is either functioning
properly from 0 to t with probability R(t)=1-F(t), or it is
functioning properly since the last repair at time u, 0 < u <
t , with probability ∫ −t
duumut R0
)()( , where m(u) is
the renewal density function of the system Elsayed [6],
Kececioglu [10]. Hence, the point availability is given as
the summation of these two probabilities,
i.e. ∫ −+=t
duumut Rt Rt A0
)()()()( , Cox [4].
The above sum of probabilities represents
Volterra's integral equation of the second kind. It can be
solved numerically to find A(t), and it can be applied in
systems without singularities Fox [7].
Ashkar [2] has shown that this estimation of point
availability is possible through a mixture distribution and
complicated calculation .However, the used method is
limited to non singular two-parameter distributions.
In this paper, the method used is invented to cope
with a very wide class of distributions regardless of their
scale and position parameters. It could be applied to
Gamma, Weibull, Lognormal and most of two parameters
distributions. Also, it can be used to find the pointavailability of systems of Bath-tub shaped hazard rate. But
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Volume 2 No.5, MAY 2011 ISSN 2079-8407
Journal of Emerging Trends in Computing and Information Sciences
©2010-11 CIS Journal. All rights reserved.
http://www.cisjournal.org
244
here, the method will be applied strictly to systems of
Weibull and Gamma distribution. In this article, a direct
method is illustrated in section 2. The transition
probability matrix is obtained in section 3. Finally point
availabilities of systems of weibull and gamma are
obtained in section 4 and 5.
2. THE DIRECT METHOD
This method, in principle, finds out the point
availability of the system directly from the hazard
function. We found that the hazard function ),( x x xh δ +
can be expressed with reference to the definition of the
conditional probability as
}Pr{),( x X x x X x x x xh >+≤<=+ δ δ
)(},Pr{
x X P x X x x X x
>>+≤<= δ
)(1
)()(
xF
xF x xF
−
−+=
δ
(1))(
)(1
)(
)()(
x R
x x R
x R
x x R x R δ δ +−=
+−=
The above formula (1) gives the failure
probability function for any life distribution function.
Consider the limit Z(x), which may exist and be finite. If it
does exist, then
)(
)()()(
)(
1lim)(
0 x R
x f
x
x x R x R
x R x Z
x=
+−=
→ δ
δ
δ (2)
The above Z(x) is called the hazard rate function
and then
)()()(
)(1
)(
)()( x x Z
x R
x x R
x R
x x R x Rδ
δ δ ≅
+−=
+−(3)
The term x x Z δ )( is approximately the failure
probability in the interval x)xx,( δ + .The
quantity x x Z δ )( is used to approximate, where it is
appropriate, the failure as well as the repair time
distributions. When there are singularities, the original
formula (1) is used; otherwise (2) will be used.
However, it must be mentioned that the hazard functiondepends, where it is an up time, on the current age of the
component; and on how long it has been down, if it is a
down time. So we need only to take account of the age of the
system to see what will happen next. Thus, if we use the
current age as a state, the system is Markovian and,
therefore, we can describe it by an initial state vector and atransition matrix, Ross [19].
It is clear that the hazard function ),( x x xh δ + can be
calculated from R(x). The term ),( x x xh δ + measures
the mortality near the point x. Meanwhile, the term
),(1 x x xh δ +− is the probability of survival from x to
)( x x δ + .
The method is applicable to both discrete and
continuous distributions if it can be approximated bydiscrete ones.
In the continuous case the subdivision between
consecutive steps is made very small and is 0.01 in ourcalculations. So the continuous distribution can be
approximated by a discrete one. All we need to deal with
such a problem is to find the elements of the transition
matrix shown in figure 2. These elements are obtained
merely from the hazard function.
3. THE TRANSITION MATRIX
The nature of state transition matrix of size
[(2n+2)x(2n+2)] is shown in figure 2. The transition
matrix is divided into four regions to allow transition
between up states and down states. Each of the up times
and the down times is specified with n+l states. This is tocover the range of the study, and n is large enough to
fulfill the requirements of the problem.
We made the transition matrix finite by
truncating the life time and the repair time distributions
suitably at a very large n to make it manageable. This can
be done by making the hazard rate at the state n equal to
unity. The same thing is true for the corresponding
functions for the down time. For the up time, the hazard
function ),( x x xh δ + will be represented by p(x). Thesurvival rate will be represented by l-p(x). The same thing
is true for the down time but with q(x) and l-q(x) instead.
For instance, the term23
1 p− , denotes the probability of
the system surviving from state i=2 to the state i=3. If the
system fails to survive at the state i=2 then it goes, instead,
to the down state region with probability 23 p . From up
state at t=0, the system can go either to state i=l with
probability ( 011 p− ) staying still in an up state, or fails
and goes to the down state i=l with probability 01 p . A
system may stay in the up state and go to states i=2, 3, ..
,n-l with probabilities
)1(.,),........1(),1( ,12312 nn p p p −−−− without failure.
If the system has survived this long, it will surely
be transferred into the down state. So the system will fail
according to its hazard function. By then the system will
be transferred to the down state, where it can go through
similar steps. So we can describe the method as the
following: The transition matrix is divided into four
regions. In a clockwise order, the first region is the top
left. A system in the up position starts within the first
region. Upon failure it goes to the second region where it
can be transferred to the third region where the system is
under repair and stays there for a certain time. Byrepairing the system it will be transferred to region four
where it can be transferred to the first region to start again.
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Volume 2 No.5, MAY 2011 ISSN 2079-8407
Journal of Emerging Trends in Computing and Information Sciences
©2010-11 CIS Journal. All rights reserved.
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245
This circulation would continue as long as the system is in
use.
Up-Time Down-Time
)4321001234....( nni =
.
0...0000010000...0
1...000000000...0
0........0
0...000000...0
0...010000000...0
0...0010000000
0...000100000...0
......
...00000100...0
0...000010...0
0...00001...0
0...00000000...0
......................
0...000000000...1
0....0000100000...0
1
2
1
0
0
1
2
1
,1,1
233,2
122,1
011,0
0101
1212
2323
,1,1
nnnn
nnnn
p p
p p
p p
p p
n
n
n
n
−−
−−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
Figure2 illustrate the nature of the Transition
Matrix of size (2n+2)x( 2n+2)Between states
Up-Time Down-Time
nn 4321001234....
)00000001000....0()0( = AV
Figure 3 illustrates the (2n+2) initial availability row vector
3.1 Initial availability and availability row
vector
A new system is put into service starts at t=0. Theavailability at this point state is "One". And non-
availability is "Zero". Thus the initial vector is the first
essential in calculating the availability at any state time.
Given the probability of being up or under repair as
illustrated in the transition matrix, we can deduce the point
availability, or the vector's availability for the next point.
This row vector will replace the initial one for the next
step. This can be done by multiplying the vector by the
transition matrix. The resultant row vector will show not
only the probability the system is up or down, but the
probabilities of the different times that it has been up or
down. Also it will be used again as the initial availability
row vector for the next step.To obtain the next point availability, we repeat
the foregoing process. Every repeated multiplication givesthe instant point availability. This process will be repeated
until the system reaches an asymptotic point availability
which, as a check, should be very close to the theoretical
one. At every state time the initial row vector will contain
(2n+2) elements (probabilities). These elements should
sum up to unity. These elements are probability values. A
set of n+1 elements of these refer to up state, let us denote
it by (Ui), The other n+1 refer to down state, let us denote
it by (Di). The point availability, simply is ∑+
=
1
1
n
i
iU and the
point of non-availability is ∑+
+
22
2
n
n
i D where
11
1
22
2
=+∑ ∑+
=
+
+
n
i
n
n
ii DU
3.2 Problem of a very large matrixmultiplication
The idea of finding the point availability looks
very simple especially when the size of the transitionmatrix is reasonably small. More formally, let us call the
transition matrix TM[(2n+2)x(2n+2)] and the current row
vector as AV(i)[[1]x(2n+2)]. At the commencement
AV(0)(2n+2) contains the point availability at t=0 where
PA(0)=1. The process to calculate AV(i) can be found as
the following :
,...,2.1,0)]22(1)[1()]22()22[(
)(
)]22(1)[( =+×+=+×+×+× ini AV nn
xTM
ni AV
i
Very small steps are used (such as width is
δt=0.01). Yet our aim is to study the system availability upto t=20. This makes the matrix TM of size 4002x4002, for
which a huge computer memory is required. And more
memory needed when the system availability is studied up
to t=50 or more.
It is notable, however, that most the elements of TM are
zeros. We will take advantage of this phenomenon and
calculate the availability vector with an arithmetical
method which condenses the matrix multiplicationmethod.
More formally, let us denote the elements of AV(i) by
I.e. AV(i) now is ( a1 a2 a3 . . . an+1 an+2 . . . a2n+1 a2n+2 )
And the elements of the resultant availability vector, AV(i)
appears as
( c1 c2 c3 . . . cn+1 cn+2 . . . c2n+1 c2n+2 )
This ci's, i=1,2,3,… are calculated as the following;
c1 = a2(1-pn-1,n )
c2= a3(1-pn-2,n-1)
c3= a4(1-pn-3,n+2)
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Volume 2 No.5, MAY 2011 ISSN 2079-8407
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246
…………………
…………………
cn =an+1 (1-p01 )
cn+1 = an+2 q01 + an+3 q12+ an+4 q23 + … + a2n+2 qn-1,n +
a2n+2 cn+2 = a1 + a2 Pn-1,n+ a3 Pn-2,n-1 + a4 Pn-3,n-2+ … + an
P12 + an+1 P01
cn+3 =an+2 (1-q01 )
cn+4 =an+3 (1-q12 )
………………..
……………….
c2n+2 =a2n+1 (1-qn-1,n ). (4)
Having obtained all the elements of the
availability vector, we now proceed to find the point
availability and the non-availability of the system at the
point i which are given, respectively, as
)(1
1
∑+
=
=n
j
jciPA
(5)
∑+
+=
=22
2
)(Nn
n j
jciPA (6)
By getting the point availability from (5), we
proceed to the next point. This can be done by repeating
the same procedure after replacing a j by c j .The method
and its operation are illustrated in figure 4.
Figure 4 flow-chart illustrates the structure of Arithmetical
calculation of PA
The time interval between consecutive points is
δt=0.01 the calculation will continue until the systemreaches the asymptotic state. This method accepts any
distribution for the up-time and/or down-time and gives
results similar to those distributions if studied using the
integral equation method. Weibull and Gamma
distributions have been treated by this technique.
4. WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION
The Weibull distribution was introduced by W.
Weibull [21]. Its use in reliability theory was discussed by
Weibull [22]. The distribution is widely used in reliability
theory. It includes monotone increasing, monotone
decreasing and constant hazard rates. It is noted that the
Weibull distribution has many different algebraic forms
depending on the way in which the parameters are defined.
Although all forms are essentially the same in regard to
the important distributional properties, there is no
generally accepted algebraic form for the Weibull
distribution. The probability density function, thecumulative distribution and the reliability functions of the
Weibull family are given respectively.
0,0,1)(1
)1
(
≥>−>=+
+−
xk mekx x f m
xm
k
m (7)
0,0,11)(1
)1
(
≥>−>−=
+
+−
xk me xF
m x
m
k
(8)
0,0,1)(
1)
1
(
≥>−>=
+
+
−
xk me x R
m x
m
k
(9)
The mean and the variance of Weibllll
distribution are given respectively as
)1
2()
1()( 1
1
+
+Γ
+= +
−
m
m
m
k X E m (10)
1
2
2)
1()]
1
2()
1
3[()( +
−
+×
+
+Γ−
+
+= m
m
k
m
m
m
m X Var (11)
where (*)Γ is the complete Gamma function , i.e.
dxe x x−
∞−
∫=Γ0
1)( α α . For the purpose of the study we
define the parameters m and k in order that each member of
the family has mean equal to unity. This can be found by
putting E(X)=1 in (10) and solving the resulting equation
for the given values of m. In table 1 below, we display the
values of m and its corresponding values of k that are used
in our calculation.
Table 1 Weibull parameters
m k Mean-0.75 0.5533414 1.0
-0.50 0.7071068 1.0
-0.25 0.8548628 1.0
0.0 1.0000000 1.0
1.0 1.5707064 1.0
2.0 2.1362189 1.0
3.0 2.6998792 1.0
4.0 3.2627404 1.0
The reliability function will play the main role in
this method. Using the reliability function of a Weibulldistribution (9), the hazard function can be given, by usingthe formula (1) as
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1
1
)1
(
))(1
(
1),(+
+
+−
++
−
−=+m
m
xm
k
x xm
k
e
e x x xh
δ
δ (12)
The hazard function (12) will be used for given
values of m and k which make the MTTF and the MTTR
as required.
We now obtain the elements of the transition
matrix as illustrated in figure 2. This matrix consists
merely of those values obtained from the hazard function
(12). We will call the probability of up-time (l-pij) for the
system to survive and pij for the system to fail. The (l-qij)
are corresponding probabilities for down-time. (l-qij)
means that the system is still under repair q ij means that
the system goes from being under repair to the up-state,and in all cases j=i+1. After any point time, t=i, the system
is only in one position, either in the up-state withprobability (1-pij ), or down-state with probability pij .At
any point time the system is in one well defined state. We
come now to finalize the results of the point-availability of
a system of Weibull. Once the hazard function is essential
to the aim of the calculation, two hazard functions of the
form (12) will be stated. One is for the up-time and the
other for the down-time. It is assumed that the mean time
to failure and the mean time to repair are identical and
equal to unity, i.e
1)1
2()
1( 1
1
=+
+Γ
+== +
−
m
m
m
k MTTR MTTF m (13)
Where k and m are the parameters of Weibull
distribution and )1
2(
+
+Γ
m
mis the complete gamma
function. For every given value of m we can define only
one value of k. This can be found as
1)}1
2(){1()1( +
+
+Γ+= m
m
mmK (14)
8.01
1)(lim
41
=+
=∞→
t PAt
(15)
It means that the point-availability of the system
on the long run is 0.8, and mild oscillations can be caused.
The results are shown in figure 6
The parameter k(l) of MTTF=l is defined from
the formula (14), while the parameter k(1/4) where
MTTR=1/4 of the repair time can be given as:
,4 / 1)()1
(121
1
=Γ+
= +++
−
mmm
m
k MTTR (16)
1
)1
2
(4)1()4 / 1(
+
+
+
Γ+=
m
m
m
mK (17)
5. GAMMA DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
The probability density function, the cumulative
density function and the reliability function are given
respectively by
β α
α β α
x
e x x f −
−
Γ= 1
)(
1)( (18)
dses xF
s x
β α
α β α
−−
Γ= ∫
1
0)(
1)( (19)
dses x R
s x
β α
α β α
−−
Γ−= ∫
1
0)(
11)( (20)
Thus the hazard function will be evaluated from
(1) by using the reliability function formula (20), which is,
itself, evaluated using numerical integration. Thus
)(
)(1),(
x R
x x R x x xh
δ δ
+−=+ (21)
It is clear from (20) and (21) that the calculation
of the cumulative distribution function involves the
integration of the singular integrand. However, the
Gamma distribution is defined to have mean unity, this
would make the density function of the Gamma
distribution written as a function of only one parameterα .
Since the mean =αβ =1 then α β / 1= and (18) can be
rewritten as
xe x x f α α
α
α
α −−
Γ= 1
)()( (22)
And in a similar manner (19) can be expressed in
(23). This step is taken to make the Gamma calculations
comparable with the Weibull calculations later on.
dses xF s
x
α α α
α
α −−
Γ= ∫ 1
0)(
)( (23)
The point availability of a system in which the
failure time, and the repair time are distributed each with
Gamma distribution is our main interest. The methodwhich was elaborated previously will be applied. Similar
procedures to those with the Weibull are carried out. The
many numbers involved in the numerical results are
converted into graphs which are shown in figure 7. It can
be noted from these graphs, a mild oscillation occurs and
then settles down to the asymptotic position, during a
relatively short time of operation. Several values of the
parameter are considered. These values are α =0.25,
0.50, 0.75, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0, 6.0. The values of
)(α Γ which are widely tabulated are used in the
calculation. Note that, since failures and repairs are
identically distributed, the asymptotic result gives that;
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5.0)(lim =+
=∞→ MTTR MTTF
MTTF t PA
t
(24)
To make further generalization of failures and
repairs of Gamma, we assume that 1= β in (18), (19)
and (20) then the Gamma distribution can be expressed in
an easy way. The mean of the distribution will be a
function of its shape parameterα , the point availability of
the system can be considered in a similar way. In the
following lines several cases of the Gamma distributionare considered to show the system behavior. In all cases
the parameter 1= β is taken for the up-time and the down
time. Different21 ,α α Are used and they are illustrated
in the table 2 below.
Table 2 illustrates the different values of
parameters21
,α α for the up-time and down
time together with its asymptotic results
Up-time
Mean=
1α
Down-
time
Mean=
2α
Asympt
tic
results
Down-
time
ean=
2α
Asymptotic
results
Down-
time
Mean
2α
Asymptot
results
0.25 0.5 0.3333 1.0 0.200 2.0 0.111
0.50 0.5 0.5000 1.0 0.333 2.0 0.200
0.75 0.5 0.6000 1.0 0.429 2.0 0.273
1.00 0.5 0.6667 1.0 0.5.00 2.0 0.333
2.00 0.5 0.8000 1.0 0.667 2.0 0.500
3.00 0.5 0.8571 1.0 0.750 2.0 0.600
4.00 0.5 0.8889 1.0 0.800 2.0 0.667
5.00 0.5 0.9091 1.0 0.8.33 2.0 0.715
In table 2 the asymptotic values of the point
availability are shown. More details about the point-
availability which are specified in table 2 can be obtained
by considering figure 8.The point-availability values for
small values of t have been calculated. Note that theasymptotic values are indicated as in table 2 for each case.
6. CONCLUSIONS
At the end it can be concluded that the method
looks comprehensive, simple and easy to use. It can be
used despite the nature of the used distribution, with and
without singularities. Beside, it has wide range of use.
The numerical results obtained in this article are turned
into graphs shown in figures 5,6,7 and 8. The behaviors of point availability of the considered systems look natural in
term of its oscillation. The only difficulty encountered is
that of finding the transition matrix and carrying out themultiplication. Otherwise it is very efficient and reliable
for those systems of two-parameter distribution.
Figure 5 shows point availability of a system of Weibull
distribution where MTTF= MTTR = 1 Where m=0.25, 0.50,0.75,1, 2,3 ,4 ,5 , 6 and 7.
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Journal of Emerging Trends in Computing and Information Sciences
©2010-11 CIS Journal. All rights reserved.
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249
Figure 6 shows the point availability of a system of Weibull
distribution where MTTF= 1, MTTR = 0.25 Where m=0.25,
0.50, 0.75,1, 2,3 ,4 ,5 , 6 and 7
Figure 7 shows group of the point availability of a system of
Gamma distribution where MTTF= MTTR with mean
Equal unity Where m=0.25, 0.50, 0.75,1, 2,3 ,4 ,5 , 6 and 7
Figure 8 shows point availability of a system of
Gamma distribution given in table 2 where
β=1. α=2 ---,β=1. α=2 –-–-–- , β=1. α=2 ────
8/6/2019 Markovian Method of Finding the Availability of Repairable Systems
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/markovian-method-of-finding-the-availability-of-repairable-systems 8/8
Volume 2 No.5, MAY 2011 ISSN 2079-8407
Journal of Emerging Trends in Computing and Information Sciences
©2010-11 CIS Journal. All rights reserved.
http://www.cisjournal.org
250
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