MarkovianProjectionMisirpashaev06Apr2007

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Markovian projection for equity,

fixed income, and credit dynamics.

T. Misirpashaev

NumeriX

April 6, 2007

Financial Mathematics Seminar, Stanford University, 2007


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Abstract

We begin with the classic result of Dupire which shows that any diffusion model

with stochastic volatility can be reduced to a local volatility model without changing

the prices of European options. Specifically, the value of the effective local volatility at

state S and time T is equal to the expectation of the stochastic volatility conditional

on achieving state S at time T. This leads to a technique of model calibration in

which the original model without a low-dimensional Markovian representation is

approximated by a low-dimensional Markovian model. We cite the results for the

projection on an effective displaced diffusion and Heston models. We then set the goal

of extending the technique from diffusions to jump processes used for dynamic

modeling of credit basket loss. We identify the one-step Markov chain as the

counterpart of the local volatility model and prove the version of the Dupire result

applicable to jump processes. We conclude by observing that the local intensity of the

effective Markov chain bears a distinctive signature of credit correlation skew, which

can be used to predict success or failure of certain models in matching the market of

CDO tranches.

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Outline

1. Classic Universal Theory of Volatility by Dupire

2. Modern applicatons: European option pricing by Markovian

projection

3. Extensions of the classic theory: Gyongy lemma for multidimensional

diffusion processes and Markovian projection on stochastic volatility

models

4. Extension to jump processes: local intensity model

5. Applications to credit basket models: signature of correlation skew

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Dupires Universal Theory of Volatility (UTV)

Stochastic volatility model in the martingale measure: dXt = tdWt.

Local volatility model in the martingale measure: dYt = g(Yt, t)dBt.

(Note: Wt may have several components, Bt is 1-dimensional. )

Gyongy (1986) - Dupire (1997) lemma: one-dimensional marginal

distributions (and therefore European options) for Xt and Yt are

identical provided X0 = Y0 and

g2(x, t) = E[|t|2|Xt = x].Dupire gave a formula for g(x, t) in terms of European options

C(K, T) = E[(XT K)+],

g2(K, T) =C(K, T)/T

12

2C(K, T)/K2

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Modern applications of UTV: Markovian

Projection

Fast calculation of European options is essential for model calibration.

Markovian projection helps because European options can be priced in

an equivalent local volatility model.

How to compute the conditional expectation E[|t|2

|Xt = x]?One way is to restrict the space of all local volatility functions g(x, t) to

a parametric subspace and do a regression, exploiting the minimizing

property of the conditional expectation

E[|t|2|Xt = x] = g2(x, t) E[(|t|2 g2(x, t))2] min(For an alternative, see Avellaneda et al. 2002)

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Projection on a displaced diffusion

Choose the subspace

g(x, t) = (X0 + (t)(x X0))(t)Find (t) and (t) from the minimizing property (Antonov and

Misirpashaev, 2006)

|(t)

|2 = E|t|

2(t) =

E|t|2(x(t) X0)

2E[|t|2] E[(x(t) X0)2]Average the shift parameter (Piterbarg, 2005)

T =T0

(t)|(t)

|2 t

0 |()

|2ddtT

0|(t)|2 t

0|()|2ddt

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Projection on a displaced diffusion (contd)

Price the European option using the Black-Scholes formula

E[(XT K)+] = X0TN(d+)

K+

X0(1 T)T

N(d),

d = ln

X0/(KT + X0(1 T) V /2V

, V = 2TT0

|(t)|2dt.

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Examples of projection on displaced diffusion

All calculations can be completed in the leading order in volatilities for

the pricing of European options on the following processes

basket of equities swap rate in a Libor Market Model

FX rate in a cross-currency Libor Market ModelFor details, see Piterbarg (2006), Antonov and Misirpashaev (2006a,b)

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Extending the idea of Markovian projection

0. Markovian projection of drift (Universal Theory of No Volatility)

1. Markovian projection for a multi-component process with

applications to projections onto stochastic volatility models

2. Markovian projection for a jump process with applications to

top-down modeling of credit basket loss

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Dupires Universal Theory of no Volatility

(private communication, unpublished)

A process with stochastic drift dXt = tdt and another process with

local drift dYt = m(Yt, t)dt have the same marginal distributions

provided X0 = Y0 and

m(x, t) = E[t

|Xt = x]

The intended application was to model credit basket loss as a continuous

variable. We will see later how this changes in a framework with discrete

default events.

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Markovian projection with multiple components

Take an N-dimensional (non-Markovian) process

X(t) = {X(1)t , , X(N)t } with an SDEdX

(n)t =

(n)t dt +

(n)t dWt

The process Xt can be mimicked with a Markovian N-dimensional

process Yt with the same joint distributions for all components at fixed

t.According to Gyongy, the process Yt satisfies the SDE

dY(n)t = m

(n)(Yt, t)dt + g(n)(Yt, t)dWt

with

m(n)(x, t) = E[(n)t |Xt = x]g(n)(x, t)g(m)(x, t) = E[(n)t (m)t |Xt = x]

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Choice of process components

The first component is the rate, dSt = tdWt. (We set S0 = 1).

The second component should be related to |t|2.

We fix a shift function (t) (for example, from a projection on displaced

diffusion) and write the equation for the rate in the form

dSt = (1 + (t)(St 1))tdWtwhere

t =t

1 + (t)(St 1)The second equation is for the variance Vt = |t|2,

dVt = Vt dt +

Vt dWt

This completes the SDEs for the non-Markovian pair {St, Vt}.

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Projection onto a stochastic volatility model

Target model

dSt = (1 + (t)(St 1))ztH(t)dWt

dzt = (t) (1 zt)dt + zt z(t)dWt, z0 = 1Answer

|H(t)|2

= E[Vt](t) =

d

dt(log E[Vt]) 1

2

d

dt

log E[V2t ]

+

E[|Vt |2]2E[V2t ]

|z(t)|2 = E[Vt|Vt |2]

E[V2t ]E[Vt]

(t) = z

t H

t|Ht | |zt | = E[Vtt

V

t ]E[V2t ]E[V(t)|Vt |2]

where Vt = Vt E[Vt].

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From stochastic intensity to local intensity:

Gyongy-Dupire for counting processes

Nt has adapted stochastic intensity t

Mt has local intensity (M, t)

One-dimensional marginal distributions of Nt and Mt are identical

provided N0 = M0 and

(M, t) = E[t|Nt = M].(Lopatin and Misirpashaev, 2007). The counterpart of Dupires formula

is

(M, T) = P[NT M]/TP[NT M] P[NT M 1]

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Local intensity model (a.k.a. implied intensity

model and 1-step Markov chain)

Forward Kolmogorov equation for the density of loss distribution is easy

to solve

p(M, t)

t = (M 1, t)p(M 1, t) (M, t)p(M, t).Local intensity (M, t) is directly related to the loss distribution

(M, t) = 1p(M, t)

t

M

n=0p(n, t)

and turns out to bears a clear signature of the correlation skew.

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Sketch of intensity averaging formula proof

P[NT M]T

=E[1NTM]

T=

E[E[1NTM|{}, 0 T]]T

=E

Mn=0

1n!e

T

0d

T0

dn

T

= EMn=0 1n!e

T

0dT

0 dn

T

= E

Te

T

0d

T0

d

M

= E [E [T1NT=M|{}, 0 T]]= E [T1NT=M] = E [T|NT = M] P [NT = M] ,

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Application of stochastic intensity counting

processes to top-down modeling of credit baskets

Lt is a counting process conditional on an adapted stochastic intensity

process t. Examples:

Hawkes process

dt = ((t) t)dt + dLt

More general affine process (Errais, Giesecke, and Goldberg, 2007)

dt = ((t) t)dt +

tdWt + dLt + dJt

A minimal non-affine model (Lopatin and Misirpashaev, 2007)

dt = ((Lt, t)

t)dt + tdWt

Calibration problem: how to recognize whether the model is capable of

producing the correlation skew?

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Correlation skew

3

6

9

12

22

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 5 10 15 20 25

attachment point

correlation

Market Skew

No Skew

Figure 1: Base correlations skew implied from iTraxx 5y CDO tranches on

Oct 12, 2005

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Relating intensity to skew is not straightforward

Deterministic intensity (t) produces no correlations (obvious, no default

clustering).

Stochastic intensity t can produce positive default correlations, howeverthe intuition about stronger default clustering does not necessarily result

in a stronger skew.

A more reliable indicator is needed to predict the ability of the model to

generate skew.

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Signature of correlation skew in local intensity

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 10 20 30 40

number of defaults

loca

lintensity

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

attachment point

10% flat

25% flat

40% flat

Market skew

Figure 2: Local intensity consistent with flat Gaussian correlations or

market correlations skew for iTraxx 5y (38) on Oct 12, 2005.

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From local intensity to base correlations skew

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

attachment point

base

correlation

=1+0.1N+0.025N;

p=6.9%=0.5+0.35N; p=3.3%

=1+0.1N+0.02N;p=9.5%

=1+0.5N; p=20.4%

=1+0.4N; p=14.3%

=1+0.25N; p=8.7%

=1; p=4.2%

Figure 3: Implied base correlations and expected loss from a given local

intensity. The number of assets is assumed to be 125, maturity 5y.

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Local intensity in affine models

dt = ((t) t)dt + tdWt + dLt + dJt(Jt has intensity h0 + h1t, jump size J)

E[T|LT = L] = p(,L,T)d

p(,L,T)d

=

u

ln2

0

dw

2

eiwLf(0, 0,u,w, 0)|u=0

f(,L,u,w,t) = E[euT+iwLT |t = , Lt = L]

f

t + ( )f

+1

2 2

2f

2 + [f( + , L + 1, . . . ) f( , L , . . . )]+(h0 + h1) [f( + J , L , . . . ) f( , L , . . . )] = 0.

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Local intensity in affine models (contd)

(Duffie et al (2000); Giesecke and Goldberg, 2006; Errais et al, 2007)

t T t, f = exp(iwL + a(t) + b(t))

a(t) = b(t) + h0(eJb(t)1

), a(0) = 0,

b(t) = b(t) + 12

2b(t)2 + eiw+b(t) 1 + h1(eJb(t) 1), b(0) = u.

This system is easily solved numerically

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Local intensity: Hawkes process

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Number of defaults

Localintensity

Jump 1

Jump 1.25

Jump 1.5

Jump 1.75

Figure 4: Local intensity of the Hawkes process for different values of the

intensity jump upon default. Other parameters are = 1, = 0.3, 0=1,

maturity 5y.

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Local intensity from stochastic intensity with jumps

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Number of defaults

Localintensity

Jump 1

Jump 1.25

Jump 1.5

Jump 1.75

Figure 5: Local intensity from stochastic intensity for different values of

the intensity jump upon default. Other parameters are = 1, = 0.3,

0=1, h0 = 0, h1 = 1, maturity 5y.

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Applicability of top-down affine models is

problematic

Local intensity in affine models typically grows slower than linear, hence

it will be difficult to count on a good calibration to the tranches.

We assumed a deterministic loss-given-default (LGD). Stochastic LGD

might improve the situation only if it is correlated with the loss and

or/intensity.

Alternatively, it makes sense to try going beyond the class of affinemodels.

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A minimal non-affine model (Lopatin and

Misirpashaev, 2007)

dt = ((Lt, t) t)dt +

tdWt

We now have sufficient freedom to calibrate the entire surface of loss

distribution by adjusting the free function (L, t) for any volatility .

(Other forms of the diffusion term are possible, also we could addjumps.)

Calibration of (L, t) to the surface of loss (and the tranches) can be

done without simulation.

Instruments dependent on the dynamics can be computed either by a

forward simulation or by backward induction.

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Conclusions

Dupires theory of effective volatility gave birth to many non-trivial

applications and extensions, including

closed-form results for a projection on a displaced diffusion multi-component generalization and projections on stochastic

volatility models

projection on a Markov chain in the top-down credit basketmodeling. The counterpart of the local volatility is local intensity,

(N, t) = E[t|

Nt

= N].

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References

A. Antonov and T. Misirpashaev (2006a) Markovian Projection onto a

Displaced Diffusion: Generic Formulas with Applications, available at

SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=937860.

A. Antonov and T. Misirpashaev (2006b) Efficient Calibration to FX

Options by Markovian Projection in Cross-Currency LIBOR Market

Models, available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=936087.

M. Avellaneda, D. Boyer-Olson, J. Busca, and P. Friz (2002)

Reconstructing volatility, Risk, October, 8791.

B. Dupire (1997) A Unified Theory of Volatility, Banque Paribasworking paper, reprinted in Derivatives Pricing: the Classic Collection,

edited by P. Carr, Risk Books, London, 2004.

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E. Errais, K. Giesecke and L. Goldberg (2007) Pricing credit from the

top down with affine point processes, working paper, available at

defaultrisk.com.K. Giesecke and L. Goldberg (2005) A top down approach to

multi-name credit, working paper, available at defaultrisk.com.

I. Gyongy (1986) Mimicking the One-Dimensional Marginal

Distributions of Processes Having an Ito Differential Probability

Theory and Related Fields, 71, 501516.

A. V. Lopatin and T. Misirpashaev (2007) Two-Dimensional Markovian

Model for Dynamics of Aggregate Credit Loss, working paper, available

at defaultRisk.com

V. Piterbarg (2005) Time to smile, Risk, May

V. Piterbarg (2006) Markovian Projection Method for Volatility

Calibration, available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=906473.

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