Education Research Interests Key Professional Activities Masoud Nili Head of the Institute for Management and Planning Studies PhD in Economics, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK Macroeconomic Theory, Economic Development, Political Economics, Public Choice • Preparation of the First Five Year Plan of Iran (1988) • Preparation of the Third Five Year Plan of Iran (1999) • Design of the Oil Stabilizing Fund for Iran (1999) • Preparation of the Legal Framework for the Privatization Plan of Iran (1999) • Preparation of Iran’s Industrial Development Strategy Document (2003) 1
Transcript
Education
Research Interests
Key Professional Activities
Masoud Nili Head of the Institute for Management and Planning Studies
PhD in Economics, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
Macroeconomic Theory, Economic Development, Political Economics, Public Choice
• Preparation of the First Five Year Plan of Iran (1988)
• Preparation of the Third Five Year Plan of Iran (1999)
• Design of the Oil Stabilizing Fund for Iran (1999)
• Preparation of the Legal Framework for the Privatization Plan of Iran (1999)
• Preparation of Iran’s Industrial Development Strategy Document (2003)
1
Labor Market in IranCurrent Facts and Future Challenges
Masoud Nili
Head of the Institute for Management and Planning Studies
2
Masoud Nili
Outline
Trends in the labor market of Iran
Major recent changes
Challenges and recommendations
3
Masoud Nili
3 stages of labor market in the past 20 years
4
Before 2006:
higher education ↑ labor participation ↑
2006-2013:
higher education ↑ labor participation ↓
2013-now:
higher education ↓ labor participation ↑
30
35
40
45
0
5
10
15
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Left axis: university students (%) graduates (%)
Right axis: participation rate (%)
Masoud Nili
Ins to and outs from labor market
5
2005-13:
• 72,108 net annual job creation
• Women replaced by men
• Low educated replaced by high educated
• Below 30 replaced by above 30
2014-16:
• 641,875 net annual job creation
• Female entrants rose above male
• Both low and high educated entered
• Youth replacement reduced
malefemale
malefemale
no higher educationwith higher education
no higher educationwith higher education
below 30 years oldabove 30 years old
below 30 years oldabove 30 years old
-500 0 500 1000
number of people
2006-13
2014-16
Average change in active population per year
Masoud Nili
Age picture in Iran
Pick ages: 25-34
Equal portion in higher education 20% vs. 18%
Large gap in participation: 65% vs. 15%
6
0 − 4
5 − 9
10 − 14
15 − 19
20 − 24
25 − 29
30 − 34
35 − 39
40 − 44
45 − 49
50 − 54
55 − 59
60 − 64
65 − 69
70 − 74
75 +
4 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4
Millions
Male Female
Population Pyramid of Iran, 2016
0 − 4
5 − 9
10 − 14
15 − 19
20 − 24
25 − 29
30 − 34
35 − 39
40 − 44
45 − 49
50 − 54
55 − 59
60 − 64
65 − 69
70 − 74
75 +
4 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4
Millions
Male Female
Population Pyramid of Iran, 2016
0 − 4
5 − 9
10 − 14
15 − 19
20 − 24
25 − 29
30 − 34
35 − 39
40 − 44
45 − 49
50 − 54
55 − 59
60 − 64
65 − 69
70 − 74
75 +
4 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4
Millions
Male Female
Population Pyramid of Iran, 2016
Masoud Nili
Age pattern of participation in different years
7
0
20
40
60
80
100P
arti
cip
atio
n r
ate
(%)
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
465
+
Age group
1996
2006
2013
2016
♂ Male
0
5
10
15
20
25
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
465
+
Age group
1996
2006
2013
2016
♀ Female1996-2013:
• 50+ exit earlier
• Retirement rate↑
2013-2016:
• -30 enter earlier
• Youth participation↑
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Unemployment rate among different groups
8
• Unemployed population:
3.3 million in 2016
• Unemployment rate is higher
than average among
Women
Higher educated
Youth
♀
♀♀
♀ ♀ ♀♀
5
10
15
20
25
Unem
plo
ym
ent
rate
(%
)
1996 2006 2011 2016
Average rate ♀ Female with higher education under 30 years
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Summary of challenges
• Female participation rate is much lower than the world’s average, it can continue to
increase
With high number of female graduates, the increasing trend is more likely now than 10 years ago
• A large group of university graduates requesting high quality jobs
• Youth do not study as long as before and enter earlier
• Large number of retired people and huge deficit of pension funds
• 3.3 million unemployed people
9
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Has the growth in Iran been inclusive?
After 2005, employment seems to be counter-cyclical to GDP.
10
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2005 2010 2015
year
GDP (1996=100)
Number of workers (1996=100)
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Policy Issues
• Passive labor market policies:
Inclusive and job-creating economic growth
Female-oriented jobs, jobs for youth and educated
• Active labor market policies:
Lowering the frictions in matching
Vocational trainings
• Managing unemployment:
Even if job creation equals the entrants, still 3.3 million remain unemployed.
