Projections
Michael Finucan, General Manager International Markets
Rain fall
Cattle Herd – Significant decline following the drought that ended in 2015 - now rebuilding
Source: ABS, MLA estimates
25.0
25.5
26.0
26.5
27.0
27.5
28.0
28.5
29.0
29.5
30.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
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Annual adult cattle slaughter
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017f 2019f 2021f
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Source: ABS, MLA estimates
Average carcase weights
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
Kg
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Source: ABS
National beef production
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.81
97
0
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
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cwt
Beef and veal production
Source: ABS, MLA estimates
Australian beef exports
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
‘00
0 t
on
ne
s sw
t
Forecast
Frozen (LHS)
Chilled (LHS)
% Chilled (RHS)
Source: DAWR
Australian sheep flock
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
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Source: ABS, MLA forecasts
Annual sheep slaughter – 6 million
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
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Source: ABS, MLA forecasts
Annual lamb slaughter
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
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Source: ABS, MLA forecasts
Australian lamb production
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Kg
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‘00
0 t
on
ne
s cw
t
Production (LHS) Carcase weight (RHS)
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts
492,800 tonnes (swt) -2%
Australian lamb exports
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
‘00
0 t
on
ne
s sw
t
Forecast
Other
Middle East
US
China
Source: DAWR