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Materials developed by K. Watkins, J. LaMondia and C. Brakewood
Planning Process & Alternatives Analysis
Unit 7: Forecasting and Encouraging Ridership
Materials developed by K. Watkins, J. LaMondia and C. Brakewood
Outline
• Objectives of transit planning
• Planning process
• Measuring performance
Materials developed by K. Watkins, J. LaMondia and C. Brakewood
Consider this Minneapolis Example...
Materials developed by K. Watkins, J. LaMondia and C. Brakewood
Which Would You Choose?
The New Green Line• Shorter distance• Runs on existing railways• Less expensive• Faster service with
fewer stops• Serves less dense
neighborhoods• Less walkable stations
The New Blue Line• Longer distance• Requires new railways• More expensive• Slower service with
more stops• Serves more dense
neighborhoods• More walkable stations
Materials developed by K. Watkins, J. LaMondia and C. Brakewood
Decisions Made Through the Planning Process
• Right of way changes
• Infrastructure changes
• Operating changes
• Coverage changes
• Investment changes
• Policy changes
Materials developed by K. Watkins, J. LaMondia and C. Brakewood
Broad Transit Planning Objectives
• Develop competitive transit service in the central urban area and along major corridors
• Provide maximum possible right of way separation
• Increase ridership and revenue
• Manage parking to promote transit usage
Materials developed by K. Watkins, J. LaMondia and C. Brakewood
Project Justification
• Mobility improvements
• Environmental benefits
• Operating efficiencies
• Cost effectiveness
• Transit supportive land use policies
• Economic Development
Materials developed by K. Watkins, J. LaMondia and C. Brakewood
Who’s Involved?
• Federal Transit Administration
• Stated Department of Transportation
• Regional Planning Agencies
• City Planning Agencies
• Transit Agencies
• Citizen Advisory Groups
FUN
DIN
G APPRO
VAL
Materials developed by K. Watkins, J. LaMondia and C. Brakewood
What are the Metro Planning Products?
• Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP)– Long range projects to sustain metro area• Large transit system changes included
• Transportation Improvement Program (TIP)– Those projects from the MTP to be accomplished
in the next 4 years• Specific transit improvements included
• Unified Planning Work Program (UPWP)– Planning activities in the very short term• Collecting information and studying transit included
Materials developed by K. Watkins, J. LaMondia and C. Brakewood
Transport (& Transit) Planning Process
Materials developed by K. Watkins, J. LaMondia and C. Brakewood
Transport (& Transit) Planning Process
• Regional Vision & Goals– Monitor conditions & identify improvement areas
• Alternate Improvement Strategies– Forecast future population, land use, and
transportation growth– Assess impacts of different transport strategies
• Evaluation & Prioritization of Strategies– Quantify & compare the impacts/ costs of
different transport strategies
Materials developed by K. Watkins, J. LaMondia and C. Brakewood
Different Planning Scales
Short Range Planning• Projects implemented
within 3 to 5 years• Requires less investment• Involves less infrastructure
& construction• Uses existing modes• EXAMPLES:
– New service schedules– New vehicles– Rerouting lines
Long Range Planning• Projects implements within
10 to 25 years• Requires larger investments• Involves more infrastructure
& construction• Implements new modes• EXAMPLES:
– Constructing a new rail line– Building a new terminal– Installing new BRT technology
Materials developed by K. Watkins, J. LaMondia and C. Brakewood
Integrating Transit with Regional Planning
Within Regional Planning• Incorporates transit into
region-level alternatives
• Considers impacts/ evaluation at regional level
• MPO agency led process
Added to Regional Planning• Focus on transit at project-
level alternatives
• Considers impacts/ evaluations at project level
• Transit agency led process
Materials developed by K. Watkins, J. LaMondia and C. Brakewood
Step 2: Collect Existing Inventories
Materials developed by K. Watkins, J. LaMondia and C. Brakewood
Step 3: Forecast Changes & Conditions
Materials developed by K. Watkins, J. LaMondia and C. Brakewood
Step 4: Set Evaluation Criteria
• What’s important to the decision-maker?
• Passengers– Availability, frequency, reliability, comfort
• Operator/ Agency– Cycle speed, coverage, safety, costs, capacity
• Community– System cost, reliability, social impacts,
environmental impacts
Materials developed by K. Watkins, J. LaMondia and C. Brakewood
Step 6: Calculate Impact of Designs
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
LAND USE IMPACTSSOCIAL IMPACTS
Materials developed by K. Watkins, J. LaMondia and C. Brakewood
Step 7: Evaluate & Select Most Effective Plan
• Effectiveness – How well alternatives support transport-efficiency goals
• Impacts– How well alternatives support economic & environment goals
• Cost-effectiveness (or cost-benefit analysis) – How well alternatives balance capital/ operating costs with benefits
• Financial feasibility – How well alternatives utilize readily available funding sources
• Equity – How well alternatives distribute costs and benefits across different
population groups
Materials developed by K. Watkins, J. LaMondia and C. Brakewood
Measures of Effectiveness
• Transportation system capacity
• Number of accidents and incidents
• Level of service/volumes/trips on key facilities
• Accessibility measures
• System redundancy & reliability
Materials developed by K. Watkins, J. LaMondia and C. Brakewood
Measures of Impacts
• Regional economic impacts– Ex: jobs added; redevelopment of distressed areas
• Effects on the human environment– Ex: change in number of nearby residences/businesses; number
of facilities, disruption or barriers
• Effect on the natural environment– Ex: number, nature, likely impacts, implications for approvals;
rare, threatened or endangered species
• Consistency with local or state plans and policies– Ex: proximity and impact on priority development areas; land use
and zoning policies.
Materials developed by K. Watkins, J. LaMondia and C. Brakewood
Measures of Cost-Effectiveness
User Benefits (Costs)– time-savings;– out-of-pocket cost savings
(parking, tolls, fares);– vehicle operating cost savings
(fuel, oil, tires, insurance, depreciation); and
– safety benefits (reduced accidents, injuries and fatalities)
Non-user Benefits (Costs)– environmental benefits
(costs); and– resource savings for
transportation operations and maintenance (infrastructure unit costs)
Net Present Value (NPV) = [PV of Benefits ($) – PV of Costs ($)]
Benefit/Cost ratio (B/C) = PV of Benefits ($)/PV of Costs ($)
Materials developed by K. Watkins, J. LaMondia and C. Brakewood
Cost-Effectiveness
Cost-effectiveness Index = Cost Measure ($)/Benefit Measure
Materials developed by K. Watkins, J. LaMondia and C. Brakewood
Measures of Financial Feasibility
• Existing sources dedicated to project– Surplus/deficit of projected funds VS projected needs
• New sources– Steps necessary to develop the source (referenda,
legislation)
• Non-dedicated– Current and projected percentage of the total budget
Materials developed by K. Watkins, J. LaMondia and C. Brakewood
Measures of Equity
• How much does transit investment improve service to transit-dependent population?
• What are the distribution of costs across population through?
• What is the incidence of significant environmental impacts?