Mathematics and Social Research in the Scottish

Government

Clare Leadbetter

Research OfficerClare.leadbetter@scotland.gsi.gov.uk

My Background

• Mature Student

• BSc in Mathematics and Computing Science

• MSc in Social Research Methods

• Health informatics researcher – Cancer Care Research Centre University of Stirling

• Quantitative researcher – Commonwealth Games Legacy Team, Communities Analytical Services

Applications of mathematics in my job

• Analysing human behaviour through a predictive modelling tool (regression techniques)

• Analysing the domains that make up the physical activity measurement

• Looking at trends/patterns in the data

• Statistically significant differences

• evidence being used to inform policy

Statistical Software

SPSS

SAS

Excel

proc surveymeans data=work.shesTemp12; where age>=16 and hrsman10>=0; var hrsman10 ; domain ag16g10; strata strata; cluster psu; weight int12wt; format sex sex.; title "Mean hours spent per week on manual work";run;

Compute ad10hwk=-5.IF (housewrk=2 or hwrklist=2 or hevyhwrk=2)ad10hwk=0.IF (range(heavyday,1,28) AND range(hwtim,10,800)) ad10hwk=heavyday.IF range (hwtim,0,9) ad10hwk=0.IF any(-9,HrsHhw,Minhhw)|any(-8,HrsHhw,Minhhw) ad10hwk=-8.IF any(-9,housewrk, hwrklist, hevyhwrk, heavyday, hwtim) ad10hwk=-9.IF any(-8,housewrk, hwrklist, hevyhwrk, heavyday, hwtim) ad10hwk=-8.IF range(age,0,15) ad10hwk=-2.Recode ad10hwk (1 thru 3 =1) (4 thru 11=2) (12 thru 19=3) (20 thru hi=4) (else=copy)INTO ad10hwk2.variable label ad10hwk '(D) Adults: Days 10+min heavy housework'.variable label ad10hwk2 '(D) Adults: Days 10+min heavy housework (grouped)'.value labels ad10hwk -8 "don't know"-9"not answered"-2"schedule not applicable"-1"item not applicable".value labels ad10hwk2-8 "don't know"-9"not answered"-2 "schedule not applicable"-1"item not applicable"0 'None'1 '1 to 3 days'2 '4 to 11 days'3 '12 to 19 days'4 '20 days or more'.format ad10hwk2 ad10hwk (f8.0).

Q1: Does engaging in cultural activities or participating in sport increase the likelihood of

good health and high life satisfaction?

OR=1 means no difference between the groups

Odds Ratio Relationship

Example – Reporting good healthSame:Ageeconomic statusincomearea deprivationeducation qualificationdisability/ illnesssmoking

Participated in sport

Yes No

Twice more likely to report good health

Q2: Is sport the largest section that makes up Physical Activity?

MEN

WOMEN

Average number of hours per a week doing each activity

Scottish Health Survey 2011

Scottish Health Survey 2012

Scottish Health Survey 2012

Scottish Health Survey 1998-2012

Percentage of boys meeting the Physical Activity guidelines

Percentage of girls meeting the Physical Activity guidelines

Percentage of children aged 2-15 who participated in sports and exercise in the previous week, 1998-2012, by sex

Q3: When do children become less active?

Q4: Has there been a change in sport participation and physical activity?

Sports participation in the last four weeks

Scottish Household Survey 2012

Scottish Household Survey 2012

Are sustained changes in physical activity and sports participation evident among particular groups?

Q5: Has there been a change in cultural engagement?

Are sustained changes in cultural engagement evident among particular groups?

Scottish Household Survey 2012

Scottish Household Survey 2012

Q6: What type of person is more likely to attend/engage in the Commonwealth Games?

• Predict behaviour based on questions on the Olympic Games

Scottish Household Survey 2012

Scottish Household Survey 2012

Do you Intend to follow / Have you been following / Did you follow the London 2012 Olympic or Paralympic games in any of the following ways?

Commonwealth Games Questions

• Is there evidence for a 'demonstration effect' among those already, or recently, physically active?

• Is there evidence of a 'festival effect' among those who are currently sedentary?

• Have legacy investments and programmes which aim to increase physical activity contributed to change? What can we learn for the future?

• What change is observed over time in key outcomes e.g. (physical activity, neighbourhood experience, cultural engagement, volunteering)?

• Have there been changes in the physical, social and retail environment over time?

• Has there been a change in civic pride among particular groups?

• What aspects of international reputation have changed over time?

References• Roma Maguire, Julie Cowie, Clare Leadbetter, Kathryn McCall, Kevin Swingler, Lisa McCann,

and Nora Kearney ‘The development of a side effect risk assessment tool (ASyMS©-SERAT) for use in patients with breast cancer undergoing adjuvant chemotherapy’ Journal of Research in Nursing January 2009 14: 27-40

• Clare Leadbetter and Niamh O’Connor ‘Healthy attendance? The impact of cultural engagement and Sports participation on health and Satisfaction with life in Scotland’ http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0043/00430649.pdf

• An Evaluation of the Commonwealth Games 2014 Legacy for Scotland Report 1: Questions, Methods and Baseline http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0040/00408160.pdf

• Scottish Household Survey http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/16002/PublicationAnnual

• Scottish Health Survey http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Health/scottish-health-survey/Publications#a1