#Matthew Buckland

www.matthewbuckland.comGM: New Media, M&G Online

future web trends innovation series with jimmy wales

IMG SRC: Flickr

#the thing about predictions...

IMG SRC: Flickr

# "Computers in the

future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons."

Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949

#

"I think there is a world market for maybe five

computers." Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

# "640K ought to be

enough for anybody." Bill Gates, 1981 apocryphal

# "There is no reason

anyone would want a computer in their

home." Ken Olson, president, chairman and

founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977

# Internet connectivityDirt cheap, lightening fast & “always on” InternetComputers light, dumb terminals: need net connection to

workMost applications web-based for best efficiency

IMG SRC: Flickr

# all digital devices will be connected & networked

From your car, radio, phone, fridge... “always on”An unconnected digital device will be a strange thingWiMax connected sunglasses with voice prompted HUD?

# rise of the mobile InternetRapid improvements in connectivity & screensMobile to be dominant platform for connecting to net worldwideJapan: happened already (mostly surf web through phones)Voice calls powered by internet & SMS/Texts -> IM Cellphones electronic wallets & banks = main method of

paymentCitizens vote for first time in elections via mobile phones?

# rise of individual & entrepreneurOpen source = unprecedented access to code & applicationsCheap to create business online & make own mediaTeenager in basement same opportunities as worker in big

companyEXAMPLE: New mobile operating system (Android)?

# strides against digital divideDeveloping world joins digital ecosystem via mobile phonesAlso become part of economy via cellphone walletMobile phones cheap & broadband ubiquitousIlliteracy issues overcome by video & audio streamsCreates new areas of collaboration and education

# almost no privacy on the webYour data will be out thereIt will be ok because everyone will be in the same boatSeeing already with soc. networking services like FB

# the rise of the virtual universeVirtual worlds like Second life go mainstreamCome to fore as graphic cards & broadband improvePotentially a visual alternative to the world wide webStandards: different worlds connect to each other seamlesslyVirtual coup d’etat by SL citizens?Linden Labs cedes SL to democratically elected virtual govt

# information pollution & overloadNext big challenge is how to manage masses of informationPeople will complain about "digital fatigue“ & digital noiseFocus on developing filters & aggregators“Switch-off" holidays regularly prescribed by your doctorRise of anti-digital movements urging “get back to basics”In response to clutter, a second world wide web announced

# more googles & facebooksGoogle & Facebook finally get good competitionMicrosoft releases OS code and goes open sourceMS makes revenue by selling advertising & giving supportAdvertising is main bus. model (connecting sellers & buyers)Facebook becomes a virtual OS/desktop, with MS influence

#...and media?

# media distribution & productionAll media eventually delivered via Internet Hardly any specialist print, tv, radio media companies leftAll fully converged, broadcasting & publishing via the netMedia on many digital platforms

MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA

# fragmented media environmentNon-media players become de facto media companiesMedia world filled with new competitorsCellphone operators, handset makers -> media companiesVodacom stop aggregating, start producing own contentOperators already big media companies (Voda: 1,4m users)Battle between media & cellphone companies looming

MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA

# now everyone is a media player

Barrier to entry drops even more dramaticallyRise of the reader and the consumer Readers: publishers, broadcasters: competitors &

collaboratorsSmall, converged media challenge media conglomerates

MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA

# role of media changesAlso content aggregators, facilitatorsBusiness model: capture audience via all meansMedia companies look to own channels: deals for own

phones?Content portals -> web applications & servicesSocial networks as well as content hubs

MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA

# is this the end of print?Books, newspapers magazines...Read on flexible digital boards, always connected Websites & digital newspapers become “same thing”Newspapers smaller & niched, but not extinctNewspapers become expensive, luxury itemsA lifestyle item: buying an “experience”, part of “offtime”

MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA

#

IMG SRC: WANN

#...other developments

# other trends fornow & the futureSemantic web entrenchedArtificial intelligenceAttention economy in full swingSophisticated personalisation of contentLocation-based/mapping services common & mobileVirtualisation eg: Amazon’s EC2 & S3 servicesWeb 14.0???... ;-)

SRC: Read Write/Web, Jaxon Rice, My blog

#Forget capitalism and the class struggle... the digital revolution is

changing things far more dramatically than the hypemongers ever

imagined... the move from a society dominated by print and broadcast

mass media to the age of interactivity is at least as dramatic as the move

from feudalism to capitalism.

Netocracy, by Jan Söderqvist and Alexander Bard (2001)

IMG SRC: Flickr

#Driven by internet and mobile communications, networks are

turning into the major means of doing business... Simply put, networks will

make the world go round. So controlling the networks of this world

will soon count for more than controlling the capital.

Netocracy, by Jan Söderqvist and Alexander Bard (2001)