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Matulla, Christoph* Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Austria
Namyslo, Joachim** German National Meteorological Service, Germany
Andre, Konrad Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Austria
Chimani, Barbara Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Austria
* [email protected] ** [email protected]
STS 49 TRA2014 Paris 14‒17 avril 2014
DESIGN GUIDELINE FOR A CLIMATE PROJECTION DATA BASE AND SPECIFIC CLIMATE INDICES
FOR ROADS: CLIPDAR
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Structure of the presentation
Introduction Data and Methods Results Outlook
STS 49 2TRA2014 Paris 14‒17 avril 2014Matulla et al.
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Data and Methods
Regional scale past & climate change projections
17 members (A1B)• temperature, precipitation
Continental scale past & climate change projections
8 members A1B, A2 • temperature 850hPa
Cause Effect Tensor: CET2 & Climate Indices: CIsSTS 49 3TRA2014 Paris 14‒17 avril 2014Matulla et al.
CET2:CIs→Assets
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Possible future of cold winters in Fennoscandia
• Select coldest past seasons• Apply an EOF analysis to continental past data• Calculate the first future time coefficient • Compare the near and far future
time coefficient to the past
STS 49 4TRA2014 Paris 14‒17 avril 2014Matulla et al.
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• Select hottest past seasons• Apply an EOF analysis to continental past data• Calculate the first future time coefficient • Compare the near and far future
time coefficient to the past
Possible future of hot summers in the Iberian Peninsula
STS 49 5TRA2014 Paris 14‒17 avril 2014Matulla et al.
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Cold index days in Central Europe
Climate indices (CIs)• CI (frost days): Tmin<0°C • CI (ice days): Tmax<0°C • Compare the far future (2071‒2100) to past (1961‒1990)
conditions
STS 49 6TRA2014 Paris 14‒17 avril 2014Matulla et al.
daysTmax < 0°C
daysTmin < 0°C
Frostdays
Icedays
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Climate indices (CIs)• CI (summer days): Tmax≥25°C • CI (hot days): Tmax ≥ 30°C• Compare the
far future (2071‒2100) to past (1961‒1990) conditions
Warm index days in Central Europe
STS 49 7TRA2014 Paris 14‒17 avril 2014Matulla et al.
daysTmax ≥ 30°C
Summerdays
HotdaysdaysTmax ≥ 25°C
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Climate indices (CIs)• CI (hot days and tropical
nights): Tmax≥30°C and Tnight,min>20°C
• Compare the near (2021‒2050) and far (2071‒2100) future to the past (1961‒1990) conditions
Potential rutting days in Central Europe
STS 49 8TRA2014 Paris 14‒17 avril 2014Matulla et al.
Near future (2021‒2050)
Far future (2071‒2100)
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Climate indices (CIs)• CI (mass movement day):
Pday>25.6 mm and P3day>37.3 mm
• Compare the near (2021‒2050) and far (2071‒2100) future to the past (1961‒1990) conditions
Potential “landslides” in Central Europe
STS 49 9TRA2014 Paris 14‒17 avril 2014Matulla et al.
Near future (2021‒2050)
Far future (2071‒2100)
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Design Guideline - principles
STS 49 10TRA2014 Paris 14‒17 avril 2014Matulla et al.
Internal climate variability: Averaging of climate projection data (periods of 30 y, at least 10 y)
Ensemble building: consider model diversity,many members (enable 15th/85th Percentiles)
Downscaling (proposal) = = statistical regionalization + bias correction
Ensemble Approach (make ensemble statistics)
Use preferably simple impact models (otherwise: only a case study may be possible)
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Outlook
Enlarge the region stepwise by consistently including further European countries
Use new scenarios (RCPs of EURO-CORDEX) Avoid the mixing of datasets Ensure highest quality of data – no breaks
along borders Include air traffic and railway transport Expand the analysis to further CIs
(e.g. damage of bridges, water to street level)STS 49 11TRA2014 Paris 14‒17 avril 2014Matulla et al.
STS 49 TRA2014 Paris 14‒17 avril 2014
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!‒ The CliPDaR team ‒
Acknowledgements:• BMVBS/German Joint Research Programme KLIWAS: Impacts of climate change on Waterways and navigation - Searching for options of adaptation
• Autobahnen- und Schnellstrassen-Finanzierungs- AG
• Federal Ministry of Transport, Innovation and Technology of the Republic of Austria
• German Federal Highway Research Institute