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MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICESmetservice.intnet.mu/mmsimages/2020-07-17_23:32:47... · 2020. 7....

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An average of 188 mm of rainfall was recorded over the island equivalent to 171% of the long term mean for the month. The 1 st fortnight was very wet except to the west which was almost dry and the north which had below normal rainfall. The highest rainfall was 243% of the LTM over the region of Mare-aux-Vacoas. The 2 nd fortnight remained very wet except to the west which was completely dry. The highest rainfall was in the centre with 256% of LTM. Excessive rainfall was quite noticeable over the Central Plateau notably in the regions of Arnaud and Grand-Bassin. Vacoas recorded 21 rain days (≥1mm of rain). The highest 24-hour rainfall was 108.6mm recorded on 17 at Grand-Bassin and on that day widespread rainfall prevailed over the island. Another episode of widespread rainfall was observed on the 2 nd day of the month. MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES CLIMATE JUNE 2020 Introduction June 2020 had excessive rainfall, except to the north and the west, recording 171% of the month LTM rainfall over the island. The month also experiences shortest day time as winter solstice is observed in the third week. Strong anticyclones were quite frequent with central pressure of almost 1040hPa, causing windy conditions to prevail during the month. The highest recorded gust reached 73 km/h at Bel-Village. Neutral ENSO prevailed over the equatorial central Pacific Ocean. A weak positive signal of IOD prevailed in the equatorial Indian Ocean and the Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole was negative. MJO was active in the SWIO during the 2 nd and 3 rd week with marked convective activities prevailing in the equatorial region. Most of the instabilities over Mauritius were associated with easterly waves crossing and at times with the favourable sector of upper level jets being over the island. 1. Rainfall Fig. 1: Spatial rainfall distribution (a) Observed (b) anomaly (mm) Fig. 2: Regional rainfall distribution (based on 23 stations)
Transcript
Page 1: MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICESmetservice.intnet.mu/mmsimages/2020-07-17_23:32:47... · 2020. 7. 17. · 2016 2018 2020 YEAR Mean Temperature in degrees Celsius over Mauritius for

An average of 188 mm of rainfall was recorded over the island equivalent to 171% of the long term mean for the month. The 1st fortnight was very wet

except to the west which was almost dry and the north which had below normal rainfall. The highest rainfall was 243% of the LTM over the region of

Mare-aux-Vacoas. The 2nd

fortnight remained very wet except to the west which was completely dry. The highest rainfall was in the centre with 256% of

LTM. Excessive rainfall was quite noticeable over the Central Plateau notably in the regions of Arnaud and Grand-Bassin. Vacoas recorded 21 rain days

(≥1mm of rain). The highest 24-hour rainfall was 108.6mm recorded on 17 at Grand-Bassin and on that day widespread rainfall prevailed over the

island. Another episode of widespread rainfall was observed on the 2nd

day of the month.

MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

CLIMATE JUNE 2020

Introduction

June 2020 had excessive rainfall, except to the north and the west, recording 171% of the month LTM rainfall over the island. The month also experiences

shortest day time as winter solstice is observed in the third week. Strong anticyclones were quite frequent with central pressure of almost 1040hPa, causing

windy conditions to prevail during the month. The highest recorded gust reached 73 km/h at Bel-Village.

Neutral ENSO prevailed over the equatorial central Pacific Ocean. A weak positive signal of IOD prevailed in the equatorial Indian Ocean and the

Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole was negative. MJO was active in the SWIO during the 2nd

and 3rd

week with marked convective activities prevailing in the

equatorial region. Most of the instabilities over Mauritius were associated with easterly waves crossing and at times with the favourable sector of upper level

jets being over the island.

1. Rainfall

Fig. 1: Spatial rainfall distribution (a) Observed (b) anomaly (mm) Fig. 2: Regional rainfall distribution (based on 23 stations)

Page 2: MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICESmetservice.intnet.mu/mmsimages/2020-07-17_23:32:47... · 2020. 7. 17. · 2016 2018 2020 YEAR Mean Temperature in degrees Celsius over Mauritius for

Fig. 4: Mean monthly temperature trend for June from 1960-2020

On average, June 2020 temperature over the

island was 21.8°C which was 0.4°C warmer

than the LTM 1981-2010.

The average mean minimum temperature

anomaly was +0.5oC and the average mean

maximum temperature anomaly was -0.3oC.

There were more cold days than cold nights.

Thus, the cold days were offset by the greater

number of warm nights.

2. Surface Temperature

18.0

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Mean

tem

peratu

re o

C

YEAR

Mean Temperature in degrees Celsius over Mauritius for June

(Year 1960 - 2020)

(b) Cold air advection on 07 June

(c) Easterly wave on 17 (a) Easterly wave north of Mauritius on 02 June

Fig. 3: Meteosat 8 satellite pictures

Page 3: MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICESmetservice.intnet.mu/mmsimages/2020-07-17_23:32:47... · 2020. 7. 17. · 2016 2018 2020 YEAR Mean Temperature in degrees Celsius over Mauritius for

(a)

The month started with relatively warmer days and nights. A similar condition

prevailed by the end of the 1st fortnight, i.e from 13-15. However, on frequent

occasions, the maximum temperature recorded was below normal by 2-3oC of the

LTM. The month was marked by 3 events of successive cold days. Day 7

experienced the first surge of cold air for the month emanating from a strong

anticyclone (Fig 7).

The monthly mean maximum temperature was slightly below their LTM at

various places, notably over the western half and the southern part of the island

(Fig 6(a)). With the exception of two warm spells from 01-06 and 13-15, the other

days were cooler than the normal by 2-3oC. The cold days were more pronounced

in the regions of Moka, and Grand-Bassin.

The coolest day was on 17 with the lowest maximum of 17.0oC recorded at Grand

Bassin. However, during the two warm spells, daytime temperatures were warmer

by 2-3oC and locally up to 5

oC on some occasions. The highest maximum

temperature recorded was 30.6oC on 14 at Port-Louis. The stations recording the

highest number of warm days were located to the northeast, and over the western

coast.

Night time temperatures were mostly warmer than the normal over most part of

the island and particularly to the north and the southeast (Fig 6(b)). On most of the

nights, the minimum was warmer by at least 1oC. Cooler nights were observed

only from 06-09 and on 30. Indeed, the lowest minimum recorded was 13.0oC at

Grand-Bassin on 08.

Fig. 5: (a) Maximum (b) Minimum temperature distribution

(b)

Page 4: MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICESmetservice.intnet.mu/mmsimages/2020-07-17_23:32:47... · 2020. 7. 17. · 2016 2018 2020 YEAR Mean Temperature in degrees Celsius over Mauritius for

(a) (b)

Observed cold days (maximum temperature anomaly (anomax<2oC))

were more frequent than cold nights (minimum temperature anomaly

anomin<2°C)).

Stations Lowest

anomin

(°C)

Number

of cold

nights

Stations Lowest

anomax

(°C)

Number

of cold

days

Belle-Mare 3.7 3 Case Noyale 4.0 6

Mon Desert Mon Tresor

3.6 2 Mon-Bois 3.9 6

Albion 3.5 5 La Baraque 3.6 13

Gros-Cailloux 3.2 5 Moka 3.6 17

Queen Victoria 3.1 3 Belle Rive (Wooton)

3.5 11

Beau Vallon 2.9 4 Grand Bassin 3.4 8

Fig. 6: Spatial distribution of temperature anomaly (a) Maximum (b) Minimum.

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

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imu

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C)

Plaisance-June2020

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Vacoas-June 2020

-3.0

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Plaisance-June 2020

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

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Vacoas-June 2020

Fig. 7: Daily temperature anomaly at Plaisance and Vacoas: Minimum (left) Maximum (Right)

Page 5: MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICESmetservice.intnet.mu/mmsimages/2020-07-17_23:32:47... · 2020. 7. 17. · 2016 2018 2020 YEAR Mean Temperature in degrees Celsius over Mauritius for

3. Sunshine and Humidity

rd wee

4. Winds

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100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Re

lati

ve h

um

idit

y (%

)

Date

June 2020

Vacoas Plaisance LTM Vac LTM Plai

0.0

2.0

4.0

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8.0

10.0

12.0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Sun

shin

e (h

ou

rs)

Date

June 2020

Vacoas Plaisance LTM Vac LTM Plai

Light to moderate winds blew mainly from the south-eastern sector. Occasionally

the mean wind speed exceeded 35 km/h notably on 07and 17. The highest gust

recorded was 73km/h at Bel-Village on 07.

The mean monthly relative humidity was mainly below normal at

Plaisance during the first 3 weeks, being close to above normal during

the last week. At Vacoas, it was mostly above the normal as most of the

time there was orographic showers. The low relative humidity values

could be associated with the cold air advection for example on day 07

(Fig 8).

The number of daily bright sunshine hours was most of the time below

normal with a daily mean of -1.3 hours at Plaisance and above by +0.2

hours at Vacoas compared to their respective LTM. On the 19 and the 27

which were mainly cloudy to overcast, had the least number of bright

sunshine hours. The total number of monthly bright sunshine hours was

less the normal at Plaisance with -39.4 hours and higher than the normal

with +6.7 hours at Vacoas.

Fig. 8: Daily relative humidity and sunshine

hours.

Fig. 9: Wind frequency at Plaisance.

Page 6: MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICESmetservice.intnet.mu/mmsimages/2020-07-17_23:32:47... · 2020. 7. 17. · 2016 2018 2020 YEAR Mean Temperature in degrees Celsius over Mauritius for

Fig. 14: Statistical Model Forecast of (a) rainfall and (b) temperature

FORECAST FOR JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER (JAS) 2020

Sea surface temperature (SST) will remain neutral

for JAS across the equatorial Pacific with a tendency

towards weak La Nina beyond the forecast period. In

the Indian Ocean, IOD will also remain neutral

whereas the SIOD index will be weak negative (Fig

13a).

A weak positive pressure anomaly will persist south

of Madagascar (Fig 13b)

Consensus forecast for Mauritius

Statistical model is expecting normal rainfall

for JAS (Fig. 14(a)). The monthly rainfall

forecast consensus is as follows: July slightly

a o norma ( 140mm) and normal for

an m r ( 95mm) an ( 90mm)

respectively.

Mean temperature is forecasted to be slightly

above normal.

The right of publication in print, electronic and any other form is

reserved by the Meteorological Services. Any part of this document

may be reproduced provided complete source is acknowledged or

after authorization from:

Director, Meteorological Services,

St Paul; Road Vacoas,

Tel: 6861031/32, Fax: 6861033, email: [email protected]

Updated on: 17 July 2020

Figure 13: Sea surface temperature (a) and pressure (b) anomaly charts for JAS 2020


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