U.S. employment situation: September 2013
Release date: October 22, 2013
After a slowdown in March, April
sees a return to growth
U.S. employment situation: April 2015 May 8, 2015
April 2015 employment summary
• After a slow March, both in terms of employment but also GDP growth, job creation returned to near-normal levels in April, with the U.S.
economy adding 223,000 net new jobs over the course of the month. Growth was relatively evenly distributed: PBS, education and health
and construction continued to be leaders, adding a combined 168,000 new jobs in April. Other sectors were more muted, while mining and
logging contracted due to sharp declines in energy prices.
• Unemployment fell by 10 basis points to a recovery low of 5.4 percent. Although the labor force participation rate rose by the same margin,
a 58,000-person increase in the number of new entrants and gains in job openings and hirings figures helped to push down the official
unemployment rate. Total unemployment also dipped by 10 basis points to a recovery low of 10.8 percent.
• Unemployment for college graduates rose by a modest 20 basis points to 2.7 percent, but is still half the national rate. However, labor force
participation remains relatively flat, particularly for high-school graduates.
• Continued declines in unemployment have kept wage growth stable at 2.2 percent. With these figures set to fall even further over the
coming months, wages may rise even faster. Importantly, wages are currently increasing at a faster pace than the consumer price index
due to the ongoing collapse in energy prices.
• Office-using industries contributed 74,000 jobs to April’s growth, far higher than in March. PBS moved back to stable levels of gains at
62,000 jobs, while financial activities has average monthly increases of 11,000.
• At the market level, Silicon Valley saw 5.5-percent annual job growth, among the highest rates recorded for a JLL-tracked market this cycle.
Tech-heavy markets such as San Francisco and Seattle as well as the rapidly growing Sun Belt markets such as the Carolinas, South
Florida and red-hot Texas.
- Even slower growth markets, particularly those in the Great Lakes, Midwest and Northeast, posted small but significant bumps in annual
growth rates. Cleveland and St. Louis, for instance, broke the 1.0-percent barrier in April.
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
April 2015 labor market at a glance
+223,000
1-month net change
+2,982,000
12-month net change
+650,000
10-year average annual growth
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
5.4%
Unemployment rate
-90bp
12-month change in unemployment
7.1%
10-year average unemployment
5,133,000
Job openings
4,916,000
Hires
2,687,000
Hires
April saw 223,000 new jobs added to the economy after a slow
March that was revised downward 36
0,00
0
226,
000
243,
000
96,0
00
110,
000
88,0
00
106,
000
122,
000
221,
000
183,
000
164,
000 19
6,00
0
360,
000
226,
000
243,
000
96,0
00
110,
000
88,0
00
160,
000
150,
000
161,
000
225,
000
203,
000
214,
000
197,
000
280,
000
141,
000
203,
000
199,
000
201,
000
149,
000
202,
000
164,
000
237,
000 27
4,00
0
84,0
00
166,
000
188,
000 22
5,00
0
330,
000
236,
000
286,
000
249,
000
213,
000 25
0,00
0
221,
000
423,
000
329,
000
201,
000
266,
000
85,0
00
223,
000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Jan-
11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-1
1
Sep
-11
Nov
-11
Jan-
12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-1
2
Sep
-12
Nov
-12
Jan-
13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-1
3
Sep
-13
Nov
-13
Jan-
14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4
Sep
-14
Nov
-14
Jan-
15
Mar
-15
1-m
onth
net
cha
nge
4
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
YTD gains of 775,000 new jobs keep unemployment slowly
falling to a cyclical low of 5.4 percent in April
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
-1,000.0
-800.0
-600.0
-400.0
-200.0
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
Une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
(%)
1-m
onth
net
cha
nge
(tho
usan
ds)
Monthly employment change Unemployment rate
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
5
For the first time in the recovery, job openings surpass 5.0
million as corporates seek additional headcount
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
6
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Job
open
ings
(th
ousa
nds)
-15.0
-4.5
-1.0
1.0
1.3
2.0
3.0
6.0
6.0
9.0
10.0
12.1
15.2
16.1
17.0
45.0
55.6
61.0
62.0
-20 0 20 40 60 80
Mining and logging
Wholesale trade
Durable goods
Manufacturing
Utilities
Nondurable goods
Information
Other services
Motor vehicles and parts
Financial activities
Government
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Temporary help services
Leisure and hospitality
Construction
Health care and social assistance
Education and health services
Professional and business services
1-month net change (thousands)
PBS, education, health and construction continue to see
healthy growth; gains elsewhere more muted
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
7
PBS
Education and health
Retail trade
All other subsectors
Top three
subsectors
responsible for
75.3 percent of
monthly
growth.
Surge in construction employment gives goods-producing job
creation a boost in April
-1,000.0
-800.0
-600.0
-400.0
-200.0
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1-m
onth
net
cha
nge
(tho
usan
ds)
Goods-producing Service-providing
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
8
-21.0
10.7
20.0
51.0
55.0
64.0
66.0
95.7
151.0
151.0
160.0
164.2
180.0
280.0
284.9
434.0
505.8
564.0
654.0
-200 0 200 400 600 800
Mining and logging
Utilities
Nondurable goods
Motor vehicles and parts
Information
Government
Other services
Wholesale trade
Temporary help services
Financial activities
Durable goods
Transportation and warehousing
Manufacturing
Construction
Retail trade
Leisure and hospitality
Health care and social assistance
Education and health services
Professional and business services
12-month net change (thousands)
PBS
Education and health
Leisure and hospitality
Retail trade
Manufacturing
Financial activities
All other jobs
All subsectors but mining and logging, which has been
affected by a slump in energy prices, have seen annual growth
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
9
Core subsectors added 76.1 percent
of all jobs over the past 12 months.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Une
mpl
oym
ent (
%)
White-collar unemployment is hovering around 2.6 percent,
moving up 20 basis points to 2.7 percent in April
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
10
Labor force participation rises modestly for white-collar
employees, flat for high school graudates
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
11
54.0%
55.0%
56.0%
57.0%
58.0%
59.0%
60.0%
61.0%
62.0%
63.0%
64.0%
70.0%
71.0%
72.0%
73.0%
74.0%
75.0%
76.0%
77.0%
78.0%
79.0%
80.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hig
h sc
hool
gra
duat
e la
bor
forc
e pa
rtic
ipat
ion
rate
(%
)
Col
lege
gra
duat
e la
bor
forc
e pa
rtic
ipat
ion
rate
(%
)
Bachelor's degree High school, no college
In line with rapid drops in energy prices, energy employment
growth has ground to a near-halt
-11.0
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm
Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through March 2015.
12
12-m
onth
% c
hang
e (jo
bs)
Tech job creation continues to hover slightly below 6.0 percent
due to sustained industry demand Year-on-year percent employment growth
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
13
Weekly claims over the course of 2015 have averaged just
291,000 and continue to fall slowly
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor
14
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
Cla
ims
Initial claims 4-week moving average
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hire
s an
d qu
its (
thou
sand
s)
Hires Quits
Hires and quits dropped slightly, but within the normal range of
monthly variation and still trending upward
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Silicon Valley job creation reaches 5.5 percent year-on-year,
continuing to lead among major markets
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
16
Dallas
3.6%
San Francisco
4.4%
Seattle
3.5%
Raleigh-
Durham
3.4% Silicon Valley
5.5%
South Florida
3.9%
Some East Coast and Midwestern markets are still growing
slower, but have seen a small bump of late
17
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Hampton
Roads
0.6%
St. Louis
1.1%
Milwaukee
0.5%
Pittsburgh
0.4% Cleveland
1.4%
Fairfield
County
1.3%
Total unemployment also dipped by 10 basis points in April to
10.8 percent
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Total unemployment U-6 10-year average
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
18
Sustained job creation has modestly improved labor force
participation to 62.8 percent; still well below norm
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
60.0%
61.0%
62.0%
63.0%
64.0%
65.0%
66.0%
67.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Labo
r fo
rce
part
icip
atio
n ra
te (
%)
A 58,000-person increase in new entrants in April was the
primary reason for labor force pariticipation’s rise
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ent
rant
s (t
hous
ands
)
Re-entrants New entrants
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Office-using jobs contributed a stable one-third of new jobs in
April, with financial activities posting more robust increases
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
21
PBS doubled its monthly growth in April compared to March,
while financial activities is averaging 11,000 new monthly jobs
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Information Professional and business services Financial activities
PBS represented 78.2 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010.
In April 2015, it represented 83.8 percent of monthly growth.
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
22
Temporary help services registered a moderate boost in April,
but continues to grow much slower than earlier in the recovery
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1,600.0
1,800.0
2,000.0
2,200.0
2,400.0
2,600.0
2,800.0
3,000.0
-100.0
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mon
thly
net
cha
nge
in jo
bs (
ths)
Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment
Temporary em
ployment (ths)
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
23
©2015 Jones Lang LaSalle Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
For more information, please contact:
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Managing Director - Americas Research
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Managing Director - Office and Local Markets Research
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Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research
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