May 25, 2018 -...

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Market Outlook

May 25, 2018


Market Cues

Indian markets are likely to open positive tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.

U.S. Stocks once again staged a recovery attempt over the course of the trading day

on Thursday. The major averages climbed well off their worst levels of the day but

still closed in negative territory. The Dow Jones dipped by 0.3% to 24,811 and the

Nasdaq was flat 0.0% at 7,424.

U.K. stocks gave up earlier gains to turn lower on yesterday as the pound climbed

against its major rivals after the release of upbeat retail sales data. Retail sales

volume, including auto fuel, expanded 1.6 percent month-on-month in April, in

contrast to a 1.1 percent fall in March, official data showed. Sales were forecast to

climb 0.9 percent. The benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.9% at 7,717.

On domestic front, Indian shares rose sharply on Thursday, with IT stocks leading

the surge as a weakening rupee helped lift IT stocks. The trading started flat with

dovish Fed minutes as well as a drop in crude oil prices offering some support after

recent heavy losses. The BSE Sensex was up by 0.9% to 34,663.

News Analysis

Sebi allows 'omnibus' trade structure at Gift City to ease market access

Detailed analysis on Pg2

Investor’s Ready Reckoner

Key Domestic & Global Indicators

Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks

Refer Pg5 onwards

Top Picks

Company Sector Rating CMP

(`) Target

(`) Upside

(%)

Blue Star Capital Goods Buy 705 867 23.0

Dewan Housing Finance Financials Buy 601 720 19.8

Parag Milk Foods Others Buy 331 410 23.9

Navkar Corporation Others Buy 150 265 76.7

KEI Industries Capital Goods Buy 478 589 23.4

More Top Picks on Pg4

Key Upcoming Events

Date Region Event Description Previous

Reading

Consensus

Expectations

May 25, 2018 UK GDP (YoY) 1.20 1.20

May 29, 2018 US Consumer Confidence 128.70 128.00

May 30, 2018 US GDP Qoq (Annualised) 2.30 2.30

May 30, 2018 Germany Unemployment change (000's) (7.00)

May 31, 2018 China PMI Manufacturing 51.40

More Events on Pg7

Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)

BSE Sensex 0.9 318 34,663

Nifty 0.8 84 10,514

Mid Cap (0.2) (38) 15,662

Small Cap (0.1) (23) 16,954

Bankex 1.4 407 29,242

Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)

Dow Jones (0.3) (75) 24,811

Nasdaq (0.0) (1.5) 7,424

FTSE (0.9) (72) 7,717

Nikkei (1.1) (253) 22,437

Hang Seng 0.3 95 30,760

Shanghai Com (0.5) (14) 3,155

Advances / Declines BSE NSE

Advances 1,263 698

Declines 1,398 1,117

Unchanged 134 66

Volumes (` Cr)

BSE 3,147

NSE 28,862

Net Inflows (` Cr) Net Mtd Ytd

FII (1,428) (6,056) 1,341

*MFs (23) 7,379 53,132

Top Gainers Price (`) Chg (%)

EROSMEDIA 142 19.1

NCC 114 8.8

KSCL 507 7.5

ASTRAL 970 7.0

JUSTDIAL 465 6.6

Top Losers Price (`) Chg (%)

GET&D 331 -8.5

GRANULES 83 -7.3

JETAIRWAYS 392 -7.0

TATASTEELPP 132 -6.9

OIL 215 -6.8

As on May 24, 2018

2


Market Outlook

May 25, 2018


News Analysis

Sebi allows 'omnibus' trade structure at Gift City to ease

market access

Capital market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) on

Thursday allowed ‘omnibus’ trades at the Gujarat International Finance Tec-

city (GIFT City), India’s only international financial service centre (IFSC). An

omnibus structure allows an investor trade through a broker or service

provider with confidentiality. Such structures are allowed at major jurisdiction

worldwide. With a view to further facilitate ease of market access for foreign

investors and based on feedback received from market participants, it has

been decided to permit segregated nominee account structure in IFSC. Orders

of foreign investors may be routed through eligible segregated nominee

account providers for trading on stock exchanges in IFSC.

Permission for omnibus trading comes at a time when Indian exchanges have

snapped ties with foreign bourses in order to curb offshore trading of Indian

products. This brings Gift City at par with any international market.

Earlier, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) couldn’t trade at Gift without setting

up a shop there. Omnibus structure will now allow them to trade directly

Economic and Political News

Rs 130 bn tenders withdrawn or cancelled to promote Make in India products

States must reduce duty on petrol, create fiscal space, says NITI Aayog V-C

Andhra plans Rs51,000 crore capex in 1st phase of Amaravati project

India drags US to WTO over levy of additional duties on steel, aluminium

Corporate News

Sebi allows 'omnibus' trade structure at Gift City to ease market access

DoT clears Rs 40 bn Idea-ATC mobile tower deal, paves way for Voda merger

GAIL India March quarter net profit posts four-fold jump to Rs.10.21 bn

Chhattisgarh ties up with Dabur to provide herbs for ayurvedic products

3


Market Outlook

May 25, 2018


Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Sunpharma Ltd – May 25, 2018

Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY18E 4QFY17 y-o-y (%) 3QFY18 q-o-q (%)

Sales 6,703 7,136 (6.1) 6,653 2.3

EBIDTA 1,449 1,547 (6.3) 1,453 (0.3)

% 21.6 21.7

21.8

PAT 895 1,385 (35.4) 400 123.7

Cadila Healthcare Ltd – May 25, 2018


Sales 3,207 2,478 29.5 3,259 (1.6)

EBIDTA 794 463 71.5 841 (5.6)

% 24.5 18.7

25.8

PAT 546 385 41.9 543 0.6

Tech Mahindra Ltd – May 25, 2018


Sales 7,987 7,495 6.5 7,775 2.7

EBIDTA 1,344 898 49.7 1,264 6.3

% 16.8 11.9

16.2

PAT 930 589 57.9 924 0.6

Bank of Baroda Ltd – May 25, 2018


PAT (28) 154

111

4


Market Outlook

May 25, 2018


Top Picks

Company Market Cap

(` Cr)

CMP

(`) Target

(`) Upside

(%) Rationale

Alkem Laboratories 23,255 1,945 2,441 25.5

Strong growth in domestic business due to its

leadership in acute therapeutic segment. Alkem

expects to launch more products in USA, which

bodes for its international business.

Blue Star 6,770 705 867 23.0

Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well

for Cooling products business which is out pacing

the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability

to improve once operating environment turns

around.

Dewan Housing Finance 18,851 601 720 19.8

With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)

consumer segment, the company has increased its

presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth

opportunity is immense.

ICICI Bank 1,91,119 297 416 39.9

Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives

sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster

resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,

which would help to report better ROE.

KEI Industries 3,742 478 589 23.4

High order book execution in EPC segment, rising

B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues

and profitability

Music Broadcast Limited 1,953 342 475 38.8

Expected to benefit from the lower capex

requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast

licensing.

Navkar Corporation 2,258 150 265 76.7

Massive capacity expansion along with rail

advantage at ICD as well CFS augur well for the

company

Siyaram Silk Mills 2,854 609 851 39.8

Strong brands and distribution network would

boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at

an inexpensive valuation.

Maruti 2,54,043 8,410 10,619 26.3

GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to

improve the company’s sales volume and margins,

respectively.

GIC Housing 2,037 378 655 73.1

We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next

two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM

improvement

LT Foods 2,674 84 128 53.1

We expect sales/PAT to grow at 13.5%/20% over

next two years on the back of strong distribution

network & addition of new products in portfolio.

Safari Industries 1,409 633 750 18.4

Third largest brand play in luggage segment

Increased product offerings and improving

distribution network is leading to strong growth in

business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4

years

HSIL Ltd 2,588 358 510 42.5

We expect HSIL to report PAT CAGR of ~15% over

FY2017-20E owing to better improvement in

operating margin due price hike in container glass

segment, turnaround in consumer business.

Source: Company, Angel Research

5


Market Outlook

May 25, 2018


Top Picks

Company Market Cap

(` Cr)

CMP

(`) Target

(`) Upside

(%) Rationale

Aditya Birla Capital 31,233 142 218 53.6

We expect financialisation of savings and

increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund

would ensure steady growth.

Parag Milk Foods 2,784 331 410 23.9

One of the leading Indian dairy products

companies in India created strong brands in dairy

products. Rising revenue share of high-margin

Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost

is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few

years.

Matrimony.com Ltd 1,704 750 1,016 35.5

We expect MCL to report net revenue CAGR of

~15% to ~`450cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to

strong growth in online matchmaking & marriage

related services. On the bottom-line front, we

expect a CAGR of ~28% to `82cr over the same

period on the back margin improvement.

HDFC Bank 5,15,733 1,986 2,315 16.6

HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the

4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.

Steady growth in interest income and other income

aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise

and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning

visibility. At the current market price, the bank is

trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.

M&M 102638 831 990 19.2

We expect strong PAT growth on back of healthy

growth in automobile segment (on back of new

launches and facelifts in some of the model ) and

strong growth in Tractors segment coupled by its

strong brand recall and improvement in rural

sentiment


6


Market Outlook

May 25, 2018


Fundamental Call

Company Market Cap

(` Cr)

CMP

(`) Target

(`) Upside

(%) Rationale

CCL Products 4,156 312 360 15.2

CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth trajectory

over FY18-20 backed by capacity expansion and

new geographical foray

Nilkamal 2,453 1,644 2,178 32.5

We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of

~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of

healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the

bottom-line front, we estimate ~10% CAGR to

`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.

Elantas Beck India Ltd 1,622 2,046 2,500 22.2

Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in

liquid insulation segment used in electrical

equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives

demand from several industries which are expected

to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming

years.

Greenply Industries 3,396 277 395 42.6

Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood

& allied products and medium density fibreboards

(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to

~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy

growth in plywood & lamination business on the

back of strong brand and distribution network

GMM Pfaudler Ltd 1,172 802 920 14.7

GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian market

leader in glass-lined (GL) steel equipment. GMM is

expected to cross CAGR 15%+ in revenue over the

next few years mainly led by uptick in demand from

user industries and it is also expecting to increase its

share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.

L&T Finance Holding 32,511 163 210 28.9

L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve

ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of

`3000cr would support advance growth.

2


Market Outlook

May 25, 2018


Key Upcoming Events

Result Calendar

Date Company

May 25, 2018 Sun Pharma, Tech Mahindra, Bank of Baroda, Cadila Healthcare, IDBI Bank, Page Industries

May 26, 2018 Corporation Bank, Nalco, Sarda Energy, Divi's Lab.

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar

Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period

Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

May 25, 2018 2:00 PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 1Q P 1.20 1.20

May 29, 2018 7:30 PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 May 128.70 128.00

May 30, 2018 6:00 PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 1Q S 2.30 2.30

1:25 PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands May (7.00)

May 31, 2018 6:30 AM China PMI Manufacturing Value May 51.40

Jun 01, 2018 6:00 PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands May 164.00 195.00

6:00 PM US Unnemployment rate % May 3.90 3.90

2:00 PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value May 53.90

Jun 06, 2018 2:30 PM India RBI Repo rate % Jun 6 6.00

2:30 PM India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Jun 6 5.75

2:30 PM India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Jun 6 4.00

Jun 07, 2018 2:30 PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change 1Q F 0.40

Jun 08, 2018 China Exports YoY% % Change May 12.90

Jun 09, 2018 7:00 AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change May 1.80

Jun 11, 2018 2:00 PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Apr 2.90


3


Market Outlook

May 25, 2018


Macro watch

Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research as on 24 May, 2018

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Source: RBI, Angel Research

7.3 7.6

8.0

7.2

9.1

8.1

7.6

6.8

6.1

5.7

6.5

7.2

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

4Q

FY15

1Q

FY16

2Q

FY16

3Q

FY16

4Q

FY16

1Q

FY17

2Q

FY17

3Q

FY17

4Q

FY17

1Q

FY18

2Q

FY18

3Q

FY18

(%)

2.9

(0.3)

1.0

4.8

4.1

1.8

8.5

7.3 7.4 7.0

4.4

(1.0)

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

(%)

2.2

1.5

2.4

3.3 3.3

3.6

4.9

5.2 5.1

4.4 4.3

4.6

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

(%)

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0 M

ar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

Mfg. PMI Services PMI

(5.0)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

Jul-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

Apr-18

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)

4


Market Outlook

May 25, 2018


Global watch

Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries


Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries

Source: IMF, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries

Source: IMF, Angel Research as on 24 May, 2018

0.3

2.5

5.3

6.9

1.1

5.0

5.8

3.7

1.5

2.2

0.8

1.8

1.4

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Bra

zil

Russia

Ind

ia

Ch

ina

South

Africa

Ind

onesia

Ma

laysia

Tha

ilan

d

UK

USA

Germ

any

France

Ja

pa

n

(%)

0.7

1.8

6.7 6.8

0.7

5.2 5.4

3.7

1.7

2.2 2.0

1.6 1.5

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Brazil

Russia

India

China

South A

frica

Indonesia

Malaysia

Thailand

UK

USA

Germ

any

France

Japan

(%)

12

.1

5.7

18

.8

11

.9

15

.6

15

.7

15

.2

15

.3

13

.9

16

.0

13

.2

14

.7

13

.8

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

Brazil

Russia

India

China

South

Africa

Indonesia

Malaysia

Thailand

UK

USA

Germ

any

France

Japan

(x)

5


Market Outlook

May 25, 2018


Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe

Returns (%)

Country Name of index Closing price 1M 3M 1YR

Brazil Bovespa 80,867 (5.5) (5.8) 19.7

Russia Micex 4,485 1.4 7.1 11.4

India Nifty 10,430 (0.7) 1.3 11.4

China Shanghai Composite 3,169 2.7 0.0 2.1

South Africa Top 40 50,600 (0.5) (3.1) 5.1

Mexico Mexbol 45,777 (5.5) (6.4) (6.7)

Indonesia LQ45 923 (7.8) (15.0) 1.3

Malaysia KLCI 1,804 (4.1) (1.9) 1.6

Thailand SET 50 1,156 (3.8) (2.7) 15.8

USA Dow Jones 24,887 1.8 0.4 18.4

UK FTSE 7,788 5.7 7.5 3.6

Japan Nikkei 22,690 2.4 4.5 13.9

Germany DAX 12,977 3.5 4.7 2.6

France CAC 5,566 2.8 5.7 5.3

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research as on 24 May, 2018

6


Market Outlook

May 25, 2018


Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls

Date Added Top Picks/Fundamental Stocks Reco Price Target/Revised Price Current Status

04-05-2018 Top Picks M&M 860 990 Open

03-05-2018 Fundamental L&T Finance Holding 171 210 Open

02-05-2018 Top Picks HDFC Bank 1944 2315 Open

04-05-2018 Top Picks Matrimony.com Ltd 810 1016 Open

20-04-2018 Top Picks Matrimony.com Ltd 781 984

15-05-2018 Top Picks Parag Milk Foods Limited 310 410 Open

16-04-2018 Top Picks Parag Milk Foods Limited 249 333

14-05-2018 Fundamental GMM Pfaudler Limited 818 900 Open

06-04-2018 Fundamental GMM Pfaudler Limited 712 861

07-03-2018 Fundamental Ashok Leyland Ltd 139 163 Closed (26/04/2018)

03-03-2018 Fundamental Greenply Industries 340 395 Open

16-04-2018 Top Picks Safari Industries 651 750 Open

21-02-2018 Top Picks Safari Industries 532 650

16-02-2018 Top Picks HSIL Ltd 433 510 Open

07-02-2018 Fundamental Elantas Beck India Ltd. 2155 2500 Open

01-02-2018 Top Picks ICICI Bank 352 416 Open

01-02-2018 Top Picks Aditya Birla Capital 167 218 Open

04-01-2018 Fundamental CCL Products 278 360 Open

03-01-2018 Fundamental Nilkamal Ltd 1880 2178 Open

01-01-2018 Fundamental Capital First Ltd 693 850 Closed (15/01/2018)

30-12-2017 Fundamental Shreyans Industries Ltd 205 247 Closed

Fundamental Prism Cement Ltd

160 Closed (09/05/2018)

21-12-2017 Fundamental Prism Cement Ltd 118 131

18-12-2017 Fundamental Menon Bearings Limited 92 114 Closed (17/01/2018)

14-12-2017 Top Picks Ruchira Papers Ltd. 188 244 Closed (09/02/2018)

17-05-2018 Top Picks Century Plyboards India 280

Closed(17/05/2018)

28-11-2017 Top Picks Century Plyboards India 317 400

19-12-2017 Top Picks LT Foods 85 128 Open

06-11-2017 Top Picks LT Foods 74 96

16-10-2017 Fundamental Endurance Technologies Ltd 1111 1277 Closed (01/12/2017)

11-09-2017 Top Picks GIC Housing 533 655 Open

10-10-2017 Top Picks Music Broadcast Limited 404 475 Open

20-07-2017 Top Picks Music Broadcast Limited 368 434

07-07-2017 Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd 149 179 Closed (28/8/2017)

06-07-2017 Fundamental Syngene International 478 564 Closed (1/3/2018)

05-07-2017 Top Picks Maruti 7371 10619 Open

05-06-2017 Top Picks Karur Vysya Bank 127 100 Closed (12/03/2018)

23-05-2018 Top Picks KEI Industries 481 589 Open

04-01-2017 Top Picks KEI Industries 125 485

01-12-2016 Top Picks Alkem Lab 1700 2441 Open

17-10-2016 Top Picks Asian Granito 267 534 Closed (18/02/2018)

17-05-2018 Top Picks TV Today Network 460

Closed (17/05/2018)

04-08-2016 Top Picks TV Today Network 297 603

05-04-2016 Top Picks DHFL 189 720 Open

05-01-2016 Top Picks Navkar Corporation 207 265 Open

08-12-2015 Top Picks Blue Star 357 867 Open

30-10-2015 Top Picks Siyaram Silk Mills 186 851 Open


7


Market Outlook

May 25, 2018


Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

DISCLAIMER

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INH000000164. Angel or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing

/dealing in securities Market. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public

offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months.

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment

decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should

make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the

companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine

the merits and risks of such an investment.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and

trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's

fundamentals. Investors are advised to refer the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports available on our website to evaluate the

contrary view, if any.

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