Intertidal, nature-based, coastal management and protection, Northern Manila bay
TC meeting – January 16, 2020
MBSDMP – Cross-cutting considerations
Project Overview
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Manila Bay Area – the Future w
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Manila Bay Area – the Future w
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Manila Bay Area – the Future
2015 2022 2030 2040 2055
Spatial model preliminary results 2015 2022 2030 2040 2055
Reference case population (million) 32.8 36.6 41.2 45.9 50.4
Land reclamations case population (million) 32.8 36.9 41.6 46.4 51.1
Reference case urban area fraction (%) 13.8% 16.3% 19.2% 22.8% 28.0%
Land reclamations case urban area fraction (%) 13.8% 16.5% 19.4% 23.0% 28.3%
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Manila Bay Area – the Future D
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2015 2055
Manila Bay Area – the Future with reclamations
2015 2055
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Key Project Pillars
▪ Manage the New Cities▪ Strict building codes
▪ Solid waste, sewer, piped water
▪ Avoid doubling the problem
▪ Fix the “current problems”▪ Solid waste
▪ Waste water
▪ Scale-up the management
▪ Municipality associations
Manage the New Cities, the new Manila Bay
Integrated DRR Flood Mitigation and Ecosystem Restoration – with the Benefits for Coastal
Communities
Intertidal, nature-based, coastal management and protection, Northern Manila bay
Manila Bay Area – a vulnerable place
sinking
Options for Integrated DRR Flood Mitigation and Ecosystem Restoration - with Benefits for marginalized Fishing Communities
DRR – Ecosystems – Biodiversity – Flooding Coastal Inclusive Growth
The land is sinking - even before the Climate Change Sea-level Rise has kicked in
November 2002 February 2018
Pampanga sinking
Building on top of houses
Pampanga sinking, Pedring 2011
Pedring 2011: peak discharge of 2800 m3/s and Manila Bay with a storm surge enhanced tide of 1.8
m above MSL.
NOAH 2013
Indonesia sinking Jakarta
Semarang
Jakarta Immediate government responseNew flood defence
November 26,
2007December 23,
2007
November 15,
2008
November 15,
2008
Jakarta again new flood defence 2017
Semarang – 3000 ha back to the sea
Original resources
Potential 1:100 flood area 2040 including urban growth, sea level rise and land subsidence
Intertidal nature-based coastal defense
Integrated DRR Flood Mitigation and Ecosystem Restoration - with Benefits for marginalized Fishing Communities
Integrated DRR, Habitat restoration and zoning
Integrated DRR, Habitat restoration and zoning Pampanga at Bataan Border
Combining all: Integrated DRR, Habitat restoration and zoning
▪ First coastal zone very difficult to protect due to ▪ land subsidence: 1 – 1.5 meters by 2040
▪ Sea level rise: 1.10 meter by 2100 (IPCC 2019)
▪ Many coastal fishponds marginal and / or abandoned
▪ Current coastline unclear
▪ First coastal zone very high potential for▪ Livelihood restoration
▪ Ecosystem and habitat restoration and development
▪ Stepping stone towards sustainable fish stocks and biodiversity
▪ The current coast line already moved inland▪ What is the most effective “line of defense”
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Towards sustainable measures
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Implementation of strict urban develop-ment
moratorium is needed to prevent huge
population increase. Otherwise population in the
managed retreat zone will increase from about
102,000 in 2015 to 623,000 people by 2040
Towards sustainable measures
Coastal Protection zone
Towards sustainable measures
Coastal Protection zone
DRR zone 1
Towards sustainable measures
Towards sustainable measures
Coastal Protection zone
DRR zone 1
Towards sustainable measures
Coastal Protection zone
DRR zone 1
Livelihood
Towards sustainable measures
Coastal Protection zone
DRR zone 1
Livelihood
Eco/natural system restoration zone
Towards sustainable measures
Coastal Protection zone
DRR zone 1
Livelihood
Eco/natural system restoration zone
Sustainable fish resources
Towards motivation and understanding
▪ Assist all people to move to safer (higher) places▪ Encourage the people to leave the First Coastal Zone
▪ But also assist the people that need and/or decide to stay in the First Coastal Zone
▪ Discourage development of new urban area in the First Coastal Zone
▪ Assist the LGUs to create safer places above ‘the ‘urban’ defense line’ ▪ Stop the groundwater abstraction
▪ Raise the land
▪ Encourage the people to move to better places
▪ Develop proper evacuation zones, shelters
▪ Assist and motivate local fishpond owners to handover for the livelihood and safety of Manila Bay▪ Move fish production to more profitable areas
▪ Add a Sustainable Resources Management organization
▪ A blue-print for the LGU coastal ordinances
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Bulacan Airport ‘a certainty’
On top of important MB resources
Connect with remaining MB resources?
Restore and rebuild livelihoods?
Compensation?
Dredging for Hongkong?Better keep your resources for safer cities
Combining all: Integrated DRR, Habitat restoration and zoning
▪ What short-term solutions and concrete advantages for the coastal towns?
▪ What are guidelines to the form and content of a general coastal ordinance?
▪ How should we protect the natural livelihoods for the local communities?
▪ How to deal with ground water extraction and ground subsidence?▪ What are realistic options for alternative water sources in the future
▪ How are we going to realize the cross-cutting:
“Intertidal, nature-based, coastal management and protection
in Northern Manila bay”
▪ ? Create a Manila Bay resilience fund?▪ Mobilize/dedicate part of the PSF?
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Thank You
To change the people a combined supported
vision is required
- MBSDMP
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Implementation of strict urban develop-ment
moratorium is needed to prevent huge
population increase. Otherwise population in the
managed retreat zone will increase from about
102,000 in 2015 to 623,000 people by 2040
LGU summaryMunicipality
Total area (ha)Managed retreat zone Population in retreat zone by year
Code Municipality Area (ha) % of total area 2015 2022 2030 2040PH030801000 ABUCAY 7,697 439 6% 2,742 6,086 8,525 8,563
PH030803000 CITY OF BALANGA (Capital) 8,968 323 4% 2,024 3,913 3,712 3,514
PH030805000 HERMOSA 14,912 87 1% 446 362 270 626
PH030806000 LIMAY 6,075 4 0% 294 184 159 152
PH030807000 MARIVELES 19,451 14 0% 107 72 74 75
PH030809000 ORANI 5,371 860 16% 6,496 15,613 18,587 23,527
PH030810000 ORION 8,972 8 0% 297 250 191 227
PH030811000 PILAR 4,560 380 8% 1,288 7,291 12,841 17,191
PH030812000 SAMAL 4,756 322 7% 1,347 2,597 4,483 11,643
PH031405000 BULACAN 7,237 5,161 71% 8,602 10,537 16,301 29,147
PH031409000 HAGONOY 8,345 5,230 63% 5,156 15,771 23,899 43,391
PH031410000 CITY OF MALOLOS (Capital) 7,088 1,875 26% 5,298 13,673 18,636 42,546
PH031412000 CITY OF MEYCAUAYAN 3,179 80 3% 236 210 308 819
PH031414000 OBANDO 1,621 1,240 76% 2,130 43,629 64,668 87,933
PH031416000 PAOMBONG 4,531 2,874 63% 4,013 9,955 11,986 20,688
PH035408000 LUBAO 16,517 6,463 39% 7,018 11,681 16,445 37,233
PH035410000 MACABEBE 9,031 6,377 71% 11,310 18,946 20,325 30,898
PH035412000 MASANTOL 6,765 6,079 90% 23,180 59,346 71,306 99,767
PH035414000 MINALIN 5,206 117 2% - - - -
PH035422000 SASMUAN (Sexmoan) 4,012 3,493 87% 9,704 17,370 21,886 35,964
PH042103000 BACOOR CITY 4,903 1 0% 311 239 239 239
PH042105000 CAVITE CITY 1,188 107 9% 2,664 2,699 2,987 3,369
PH042111000 KAWIT 1,597 382 24% 1,790 24,260 26,195 12,940
PH042116000 NOVELETA 516 33 6% 75 1,648 1,759 1,528
PH042117000 ROSARIO 801 9 1% 2,183 2,398 2,398 2,349
PH133901000 TONDO I / II 1,102 26 2% 54 59 100 144
PH137502000 CITY OF MALABON 1,577 125 8% 1,110 15,049 17,662 20,281
PH137503000 CITY OF NAVOTAS 1,054 505 48% 2,672 64,771 76,592 88,388
Total 167,032 42,612 26% 102,544 348,610 442,533 623,143