MCAT Students Election Guide

Medical College Admission Test

Using MCAT Data in Medical Student Selection

MCAT is a program of the Association of American Medical Colleges

www.aamc.org/mcat

iUsing MCAT Data in Medical Student Selection

Dear Admissions Officers,

We are approaching a time of transition as administration of the current Medical College Admission Test (MCAT), in use since 1991, will end in January 2015. In spring 2015, the AAMC (Association of American Medical Colleges) will introduce a new version of the MCAT exam. Shortly thereafter, in summer 2015 when the 2016 application cycle opens, you will receive scores from applicants who took the new exam, as well as scores from applicants who took the current exam. What this means for you is that this is the last year that applicants to your school will report MCAT scores for the current exam only, and the last year in which this guide focuses solely on the interpretation and use of scores from the current MCAT exam.

We also want to let you know about the changes that prospective applicants will experience during the transition to the new exam. Weve added extra test dates in 2014 (and the beginning of 2015) to allow prospective applicants plenty of chances to take the current exam in October, November, and January. What this means for you is that you may see more applicants reporting MCAT scores taken in months where, historically, no MCAT exam was administered.

As we prepare for the release of the new MCAT exam, the AAMC will be available every step of the way to help you make the transition from using scores from the current exam to using scores from the new exam. Please dont hesitate to contact us if you have questions. You can reach us by phone at 202-828-0899, or by email at [email protected].

Sincerely,

Cynthia A. SearcyDirector, MCAT Research

iii



This guide provides admissions officers and medical school faculty members who serve on admissions committees with information about the design, interpretation, use, and predictive value of the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT). It answers the following questions:

What does the MCAT exam measure? ..........................................................................................1

How is the MCAT exam scored? ....................................................................................................2

How well do examinees score on the MCAT exam?.......................................................................2

How accurate are examinees MCAT scores and how should they be interpreted? ........................3

Why are some MCAT scores marked as non-standard? .................................................................4

How do examinees scores change when they retake the MCAT exam and how do admissions officers use scores for applicants who test more than once? ........................................4

How do admissions officers use MCAT scores and other application data in the holistic review of applicants qualifications? ..............................................................................................6

How well do undergraduate GPAs (UGPAs) and MCAT scores predict students performance in medical school? .........................................................................................................................9

References ..................................................................................................................................12

Appendix. Relationships between UGPAs, MCAT scores, and USMLE outcomes ..........................13

1Using MCAT Data in Medical Student Selection

What does the MCAT exam measure?

The MCAT exam is designed to measure applicants knowledge of undergraduate, introductory-level biology, organic chemistry, general chemistry, and physics concepts along with higher-order thinking skills like hypothesis testing, scientific problem solving, verbal reasoning, and quantitative reasoning. Results for MCAT exams taken in January 2013 or later include scores for three test sections:

Biological Sciences (BS) Physical Sciences (PS) Verbal Reasoning (VR)

The Biological Sciences section examines introductory-level knowledge of biology and organic chemistry concepts along with test takers skill at identifying main ideas, testing hypotheses, evaluating information, reasoning with flexibility and adaptability, and reasoning using quantitative data.

The BS section has 52 multiple-choice questions. Thirty-nine of them call for responses to scientific problems that are described by passages; many also include graphs, tables, or charts. The remaining 13 BS questions are stand-alone items that do not relate to passages. Examinees have 70 minutes to complete the BS section.

An article about the MCAT exam and what it measures appeared in Science magazine (Zheng, Lawhorn, Lumley, & Freeman, 2008). It described independent researchers examination of the BS section and the scientific knowledge and higher-order thinking skills that it tests. The authors reported that 45% of BS questions test higher-order thinking skills, more than similar questions on the Advanced Placement and Graduate Record Examination biology examinations or on tests given in the first year of medical school. The authors concluded that, the biology portion of the MCAT fulfills its stated goal of assessing problem-solving ability and critical thinking, in addition to mastery of basic biology concepts.

The Physical Sciences section tests examinees introductory-level knowledge of physics and general (inorganic) chemistry concepts, along with the application of these concepts to scientific problems. The problem-solving skills the PS section examines, the question formats, and testing time all parallel those in the BS section.

The Verbal Reasoning section of the MCAT exam tests examinees ability to understand, evaluate, and apply information and arguments presented in prose text, as well as examinees skill at incorporating information. VR passages are drawn from the natural sciences, social sciences, and humanities. All information that test takers need to respond to VR questions appears in the passages. There are 40 multiple-choice questions; all are passage based. Examinees have 60 minutes to complete the VR section.

Prior to January 2013, the MCAT exam included a fourth section, the Writing Sample section. This section tested examinees ability to develop a central idea, synthesize concepts and ideas, present ideas cohesively and logically, and write clearly following accepted writing conventions.1 Applicants who took the MCAT exam prior to January 2013 will have MCAT results for this fourth section, reported on an alphabetic scale that ranges from J (low) to T (high).

The decision to remove the Writing Sample section from the exam was based in part on input from medical school admissions officers who reported that scores on this section of the test are used for only a very small group of applicants (e.g., applicants with low Verbal Reasoning or Writing Sample scores, and/or applicants who have difficulty communicating in their interviews). In place of the Writing Sample section, a voluntary, unscored trial section was added to the exam to help evaluate test questions in psychology, sociology, and biochemistry that will be included in the new version of the MCAT exam to be introduced in spring 2015.

1 The Writing Sample section presented examinees with two open-ended statements (writing prompts) with three associated writing tasks for each. Examinees had 30 minutes to write each essay. Essays were scored twice on a six-point scale, once by an expert reader and once by a computer algorithm. The agreement rates between expert readers and the computer algorithm were very high; when expert and computer scorers disagreed by more than a point, a second expert provided the final score. Numeric scores were converted to an alphabetic scale that ranged from J (low) to T (high) for reporting.


Physical Sciences 8.4 (2.5)Verbal Reasoning 8.0 (2.5)Biological Sciences 8.8 (2.5)

Score Summary for Exams Administered in 20112013

Mean (SD)20112013 (N=270,535)

0

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2

3

4

5

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7

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45

Perc

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20112013 (Mean=25.2, SD=6.4)

Figure 1. Distribution of MCAT Total Scores for Exams Administered in 20112013 (N=270,535)

Asian(mean=25.9; N=62,488)

American Indian (mean=23.2; N=2,888)

Total Score

Black(mean=20.2; N=24,085)

Hispanic (mean=21.8; N=25,118)

Pacific Islander(mean=22.6; N=1,126)

White(mean=26.1; N=122,449)

Female (mean=24.2; N=138,721)

Male (mean=26.3; N=131,591)

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45

Figure 2. MCAT Total Scores for Exams Administered in 20112013 by Sex and Race/Ethnicity

How is the MCAT exam scored?

Scores on the multiple-choice sections of the MCAT exam are reported on a numeric scale ranging from 1 to 15. Scores on the three multiple-choice sections of the test are summed to create a total score, ranging from 3 to 45. All MCAT results for tests taken in January 2013 or later will include these three section scores and the total score. In addition, total scores for MCAT exams taken before January 2013 will range from 3 to 45 and include a Writing Sample score appended at the end (e.g., 28Q).

How well do examinees score on the MCAT exam?

Figure 1 shows the distribution of MCAT total and section scores for all exams administered in 2011 to 2013. The mean MCAT total score for these exams was 25.2, and the standard deviation was 6.4.2

Figure 2 shows the distributions of MCAT total scores for exams administered from 2011 to 2013 by sex and racial/ethnic group. It uses box-and-whisker plots, which show the 10th, 25th, 50th (median), 75th, and 90th percentile scores for each group. The 10th and 90th percentile scores are shown by the ends of the whiskers, the 25th and 75th percentile scores are shown by the box (the left edge of each box shows the 25th percentile score, and the right edge shows the 75th percentile score), and the median is shown by the vertical bar inside each box. For example, the 10th, 25th, median, 75th, and 90th percentile scores for female examinees were 15, 20, 25, 29, and 32, respectively. The mean MCAT total score for each group appears in parentheses by the group label.

There is variability in the median MCAT total scores for examinees in different sex and racial/ethnic groups. However, there is a great deal of overlap in the score distributions for different groups. The similarities and differences in these data are similar to those reported in the literature for other admissions tests (Roth, Bevier, Bobko, Switzer, & Tyler, 2001; Sackett & Shen, 2010). Recent research suggests these differences in MCAT total scores for racial/ethnic minorities do not reflect test bias (Davis, Dorsey, Franks, Sackett, Searcy, & Zhao, 2013).

2 A summary of MCAT total and section scores for all exams administered in 2014 will be provided in November 2014 when the testing year is typically complete.


Examinee C

Examinee D

2018 22 24 26 28 30 32

Figure 4. Confidence Bands for Two Examinees with Dissimilar Scores

Examinee A

Examinee B

2018 22 24 26 28 30 32

Figure 3. Confidence Bands for Two Examinees with Similar Reported Scores

How accurate are examinees MCAT scores and how should they be interpreted?

Like other standardized tests, the MCAT exam is an imperfect measure of test takers achievement. Examinees scores can be dampened by factors like fatigue, text anxiety, and less than optimal test room conditions, or they can be boosted by recent exposure to some of the tested topics.

A tests reliability is a reflection of the accuracy with which it measures the knowledge and skills it targets. Reliability estimates are used to calculate the standard error of measurement (SEM) of examinees test scores. The SEM is useful because it defines the size of the confidence intervals that surround the reported scores. Confidence intervals represent the range of test scores within which examinees true achievement levels probably lie. For MCAT total scores, the SEM is two points.3

An examinees MCAT total score plus or minus two points defines the 68% confidence interval. Adding and subtracting two points to an MCAT total score of 23, for example, defines a confidence band that begins at 21 and goes to 25. This means that in 68% of cases, the true score for an examinee with a reported score of 23 lays within the band that goes from 21 to 25.

Reviewing applicants scores with the confidence bands in mind prevents over-interpretation of small differences in test scores. Figures 3 and 4 illustrate how confidence intervals can be used to interpret MCAT total scores. The reported score for each examinee is shown with a blue box. The 68% confidence interval around each examinees score is shown by the dashed lines in the figure.

In Figure 3, examinee A scored 23 and examinee B scored 26. The 68% confidence intervals around these scores overlap. The overlap between the two confidence intervals suggests that the two reported scores may not be meaningfully different from each other.

Figure 4 shows a score of 21 for examinee C and a score of 28 for examinee D. The confidence intervals around their scores do not overlap, suggesting the two scores are more likely to be meaningfully different from each other (compared to examinees A and B).

3 MCAT total scores provide better estimates of examinees true knowledge and skill levels than do MCAT section scores. This is because MCAT total scores are based on more multiple-choice questions than are MCAT section scores.


Why are some MCAT scores marked as non-standard?

Consistent with the Americans with Disabilities Act (1990), the MCAT testing program offers accommodations to examinees with documented disabilities. Examples of common accommodations include a separate testing room, extra breaks, extended time for the test, enlarged font, and authorization to bring medication, medical supplies, or food/drink into the testing room.

In accordance with professional testing standards (American Educational Research Association [AERA], American Psychological Association [APA], & National Council on Measurement in Education [NCME], 1999), the AAMC annotates score reports if there is evidence that scores may not be comparable to scores obtained under standard test administration conditions.

How do examinees scores change when they retake the MCAT exam and how do admissions officers use scores for applicants who test more than once?

MCAT examinees can test up to three times in one calendar year with no lifetime limit on the number of times they may test. In 2013, approximately 12% of examinees tested more than once in the same year.

To give admissions committee members a sense of the types of score gains obtained by examinees testing multiple times, MCAT staff examined MCAT total scores for test takers who initially sat for the MCAT exam in 2011, 2012, or 2013, and retested in the same year. Figure 5 uses box-and-whisker plots (described earlier for Figure 2) to illustrate the distribution of score gains (and losses) on examinees second administrations of the MCAT exam. The data show that re-testers tend to obtain higher scores on their second exams, but the amount of score improvement varies inversely with examinees initial scores. That is, the lower the initial scores, the greater the improvement tends to be on re-testing.

Figure 5 shows that the median gain for examinees who tested two or more times in the same year and whose initial scores ranged from 5 to 23 was two score points; one for examinees whose initial scores ranged from 24 to 26; two for examinees whose initial scores ranged from 27 to 29; one for examinees whose initial scores ranged from 30 to 35; zero for examinees whose initial scores ranged from 36 to 38; and one for examinees whose initial scores were 39 or greater. It is important to note, however, that there was considerable variability in the magnitude and direction of score changes, with some examinees posting increases or decreases greater than four points. There also was more variability in score changes among examinees with lower initial scores than those with higher initial scores.

In the 2013 American Medical College Application Service (AMCAS) cycle, approximately 47% of applicants submitted more than one set of MCAT scores in their application. To understand the ways in which admissions officials use re-testers MCAT total scores in the admissions process, MCAT staff surveyed medical school admissions officers in 2008 (Dunleavy, Oppler, & Mitchell, 2008). The results showed that admissions officers use a number of strategies for examining re-testers scores. For example, some admissions committees use applicants most recent exam scores in the admissions process, whereas others use applicants best scores as represented by either the highest total scores or the sum of the highest section scores across multiple administrations. Other committees compute the average total score across the multiple administrations.

After conducting the survey, MCAT staff analyzed application and medical student outcome data to see which of these strategies best predicts students performance in medical school. MCAT staff examined the following student outcomes: four-year graduation rates, five-year graduation rates, withdrawal/dismissal for academic reasons, and United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) scores (Zhao, Dunleavy, Oppler, & Kroopnick, 2011; Zhao, Oppler, Dunleavy, & Kroopnick, 2010). Analyses showed that average MCAT total scores were the most accurate predictors of medical student performance. The other strategies tended to over-predict the performance of re-testers in medical school. The data also showed that the larger the number


8 or more

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(N=1,225)1517

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(N=1,661)3335

(N=366)3638 (N=61)

3945 (N=5)

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Initial Total Score Range

Figure 5. Changes in MCAT Total Multiple-Choice Scores For Examinees Who Tested in 20112013 and Re-tested in the Same Year

of testings, the larger the amount of over-prediction. Therefore, the strategy that results in the most accurate prediction of medical student performance for the majority of applicants who re-test is the use of average MCAT total scores.

Despite these findings, it is very important that admissions committee members be aware of the circumstances of individual applicants and use that information (if available) in considering re-testers scores. For example, if an applicants scores from a particular administration are out of line with other scoresbecause the applicant was sick (in the case of an unusually low performance) or recently completed extensive additional study (in the case of unusually high performance)then that information should be taken into consideration in evaluating the applicants scores.


How do admissions officers use MCAT scores and other application data in the holistic review of applicants qualifications?

MCAT scores are among many sources of application data that admissions committees use to select medical students. MCAT scores help admissions officers interpret grades and other academic data that come from undergraduate institutions with different curricular emphases and grading standards. In addition to applicants academic data, admissions officers examine applicants experiences and demographic and personal attributes. Applicants provide a great deal of data about their academic and other experiences and demographics and personal characteristics through their applications, personal statements, and interviews. Letter writers also provide rich information about applicants academic, experiential, and personal attributes.

The procedures that admissions officers from different medical schools use to review these varied data differ in ways that reflect schools unique educational missions and goals and the size of their applicant pools. In 2013, to learn more about the holistic review of applicants qualifications, AAMC staff surveyed admissions officers about the relative importance of different academic, experiential, demographic, and personal attribute data in deciding which applicants to admit.4 The data presented in this report are a subset of the data provided by the admissions officers.

Admissions officers rated the importance of these variables for three phases of the admissions process: deciding to send a secondary application, extending interview invitations, and extending acceptance offers. In assigning their ratings, admissions officers used a scale that ranged from 1 to 4 (Not Important, Somewhat Important, Important, and Very Important, respectively). Only a subset of the medical schools (N=44) reported that they use application data to decide which applicants to send secondary applications. The majority (N=83) do not select applicants at this stage; they either send secondary applications to all of their applicants or they do not use secondary applications.

Table 1 lists the application variables organized in four types: academic metrics, experiences, demographics, and other sources of applicant information. They are grouped by overall mean importance, reflecting the average ratings of importance for deciding which applicants to interview and which to admit. Academic metrics that were rated Important or Very Important for deciding which applicants to interview and accept include cumulative science/math undergraduate grade point averages (UGPAs), MCAT total scores, trends in undergraduate grades, cumulative total UGPAs, and performance in post-baccalaureate programs. Experiences that were rated Important or Very Important for both interview invitations and acceptance offers include health care experience, community service/volunteer experience, experience with underserved populations, experience navigating through cultural barriers or challenges, and leadership experience. Interview assessments, letters of evaluation or recommendation, and personal statements also were rated Important to Very Important.

The mean importance ratings assigned by admissions officers from public versus private institutions differed significantly for some variables, as shown in italics in Table 1. For example, private institutions rated selectivity of undergraduate institutions as Important to Very Important (and significantly more important) than did public institutions; conversely, public institutions rated U.S. citizenship/permanent residency and state residency as Important to Very Important (and significantly more important) than did private institutions.

There also were differences in importance ratings between the public and private medical schools that use application data to select the applicants who will receive secondary applications. All 10 of the private schools selecting applicants to receive secondary applications rated MCAT and UGPA data as Important to Very Important to their decisions. Approximately 80% of admissions officers from public medical schools gave MCAT and UGPA data high importance ratings (i.e., Important to Very Important) in deciding which applicants to send secondary applications; about 10% of public schools rated them as Somewhat Important, and about 10% said they were Not Important.5

4 The survey was conducted in 2013. The survey asked admissions officers to rate the importance of various application data to admissions decisions. The results are based on data from 127 U.S. medical schools, consisting of 75 public institutions and 52 private institutions representative of all U.S. medical schools.

5 For public schools that screen applicants before sending secondary applications, 28 of 34 rated MCAT total scores as Important to Very Important, 2 rated them as Somewhat Important, and 4 rated them as Not Important. For these same schools, 27 rated UGPAs as Important to Very Important, 3 rated them as Somewhat Important, and 4 rated them as Not Important.


Table 1. Mean Importance Ratings of Academic, Experiential, and Demographic Application Data Used by Admissions Committees for making Decisions about which Applicants to Receive an Interview Invitation and Offer Acceptance (N=127)1

Mean Importance Ratings

Academic Metrics Experiences Demographics2 Sources of Applicant Information

Highest Importance Ratings(>= 3.0)

UGPA: Cumulative science/math

MCAT total score Upward or downward

grade trend UGPA: Cumulative total Performance in a post-

baccalaureate program Selectivity of

undergraduate institution (Private)5

Healthcare experience Community service/

volunteer experience Experience with

underserved populations

Navigated through cultural barriers or challenges

Leadership experience

U.S. citizenship/permanent residency (Public)5

State residency (Public)5

Interview assessments3

Letters of evaluation or recommendation

Personal statements

Medium Importance Ratings(>=2.5 and


GPA Total 5-14 15-17 18-20 21-23 24-26 27-29 30-32 33-35 36-38 39-45 All3.80-4.00 2% 3% 13% 23% 40% 63% 78% 86% 89% 92% 71%

2/83 4/154 70/520 342/1,480 1,401/3,471 4,171/6,643 6,746/8,617 5,893/6,890 3,393/3,792 1,300/1,419 23,322/33,0693.60-3.79 0% 2% 10% 18% 27% 47% 68% 77% 81% 86% 53%

0/159 9/395 97/994 406/2,268 1,293/4,761 3,716/7,922 5,884/8,693 4,280/5,536 1,703/2,111 409/476 17,797/33,3153.40-3.59 1% 3% 7% 13% 22% 35% 50% 64% 72% 75% 38%

2/323 18/574 90/1,228 333/2,598 1,031/4,677 2,410/6,969 3,570/7,090 2,397/3,720 826/1,148 169/225 10,846/28,5523.20-3.39 0% 1% 7% 11% 19% 24% 37% 49% 60% 68% 26%

0/350 7/557 74/1,131 252/2,235 625/3,282 1,024/4,255 1,467/3,987 913/1,875 320/529 75/110 4,757/18,3113.00-3.19 0% 2% 4% 9% 16% 21% 30% 39% 50% 55% 19%

0/390 8/525 35/925 142/1,539 354/2,149 483/2,308 536/1,805 307/785 107/212 16/29 1,988/10,6672.80-2.99 0% 1% 4% 7% 14% 15% 25% 29% 30% 34% 13%

0/359 3/397 24/644 60/877 145/1,069 154/994 187/743 88/300 26/87 10/29 697/5,4992.60-2.79 0% 1% 3% 5% 9% 14% 24% 28% 36% -- 10%

0/278 3/288 10/351 25/475 47/504 54/385 70/289 34/120 16/45 261/2,7432.40-2.59 0% 0% 1% 3% 7% 14% 19% 16% 13% -- 6%

0/188 0/155 2/185 8/229 17/239 23/161 22/115 6/38 2/15 81/1,3272.20-2.39 0% 0% 1% 3% 9% 12% 6% 13% -- -- 4%

0/133 0/68 1/85 2/76 8/88 8/66 2/34 2/15 23/5732.00-2.19 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 7% 13% -- 2%

0/61 0/43 0/47 0/26 1/29 1/15 2/15 4/2381.47-1.99 0% 0% -- -- -- -- -- 0%

0/45 0/10 0/89All 0% 2% 7% 13% 24% 41% 59% 72% 80% 86% 44% 4/2,372 52/3,166 403/6,120 1,570/11,812 4,922/20,274 12,044/29,725 18,486/31,392 13,920/19,281 6,393/7,944 1,982/2,301 59,776/134,387

Table 2. Percentage of 2011-2013 Applicants Accepted into at Least One Medical School, by MCAT Total Score and Undergraduate GPA Range

MCAT Total

Notes: 1. Dark Green shading = acceptance rates 75%; Light Green shading = acceptance rates of 50-74%; Grey shading = acceptance rates of 25-49%.

2. Dashes = cells with fewer than ten observations; blank cells = cells with zero observations.3. For students who took the MCAT exam multiple times, the most recent MCAT total score in each application year was used in this analysis.

National-level data on the academic credentials of applicants whom admissions committees accept reinforce the messages these survey data provide. Table 2 shows the percentages of applicants with different UGPAs and MCAT total scores who were accepted into one or more medical schools in 2011, 2012, and 2013. These data show that, while UGPAs and MCAT total scores are important factors in admissions, they are not the sole determinants of admissions decisions. For example, eight percent of applicants with UGPAs of 3.8 or higher and MCAT total scores of 39 or above were rejected by all of the medical schools to which they applied. In contrast, about nine percent of applicants with UGPAs of 3.0 to 3.19 and MCAT total scores ranging from 21 to 23 were accepted by at least one medical school.


GPA Total 5-14 15-17 18-20 21-23 24-26 27-29 30-32 33-35 36-38 39-45 All3.80-4.00 -- 58% 67% 80% 87% 90% 91% 89% 86% 85% 89%

7/12 63/94 278/347 1,171/1,347 3,133/3,478 4,110/4,539 3,054/3,433 1,622/1,881 564/660 14,004/15,7943.60-3.79 -- 54% 67% 76% 82% 88% 89% 88% 86% 89% 87%

7/13 90/134 316/414 1,094/1,334 3,036/3,449 3,820/4,310 2,383/2,717 982/1,144 236/266 11,965/13,7863.40-3.59 -- 43% 73% 69% 79% 86% 88% 89% 85% 87% 85%

6/14 85/117 244/352 834/1,062 2,053/2,398 2,666/3,029 1,464/1,650 510/599 118/136 7,982/9,3633.20-3.39 -- 44% 60% 66% 76% 84% 88% 86% 88% 86% 83%

8/18 61/101 201/304 449/593 1,007/1,193 1,204/1,373 657/763 242/276 43/50 3,873/4,6753.00-3.19 -- 42% 41% 63% 72% 84% 85% 89% 88% 81% 79%

8/19 25/61 110/174 229/320 426/509 455/537 247/279 90/102 13/16 1,604/2,0192.80-2.99 -- -- 36% 62% 63% 79% 84% 80% 82% 100% 72%

9/25 64/104 109/172 150/191 115/137 67/84 18/22 12/12 547/7552.60-2.79 -- 42% 49% 60% 80% 78% 80% -- 67%

8/19 21/43 34/57 59/74 38/49 20/25 185/2772.40-2.59 -- -- 50% 60% 70% 84% 100% -- 74%

5/10 12/20 14/20 21/25 10/10 68/922.20-2.39 -- -- -- -- -- -- 39%

7/182.00-2.19 -- -- -- -- -- -- --

1.47-1.99 -- -- -- --

All 33% 46% 62% 71% 80% 87% 89% 88% 86% 86% 86% 7/21 42/92 343/556 1,240/1,755 3,935/4,910 9,881/11,317 12,434/14,006 7,904/8,963 3,470/4,032 986/1,140 40,242/46,792

Table 3. Percentage of 2006-2008 Students Who Graduated from Medical School in Four Years, by MCAT Total Score and Undergraduate GPA Range

MCAT Total

Notes: 1. Blue shading = graduation rates of 90-100%; Green shading = graduation rates of 80-89%; Orange shading = graduation rates of 70-79%. 2. Dashes = cells with fewer than ten observations; blank cells = cells with zero observations. 3. Students enrolled in joint programs (e.g., MD-PhD), participating in special research/non-research studies, or deceased are not included in this table.4. For students who took the MCAT exam multiple times, the most recent MCAT total score at the time of matriculation was used in this analysis.

How well do undergraduate GPAs (UGPAs) and MCAT scores predict students performance in medical school?

The value of UGPAs and MCAT scores in predicting students performance in medical school has been well established (Donnon, Paolucci, & Violato, 2007; Dunleavy, Kroopnick, Dowd, Searcy, & Zhao, 2013; Julian, 2005; Koenig & Wiley, 1997; Kroopnick, Dunleavy, Dowd, Searcy, & Zhao, 2013; Kuncel & Hezlett, 2007). Studies show that undergraduate grades and MCAT scores predict students grades in medical school, academic difficulty or distinction, time to graduation, scores on USMLE Step exams, and unimpeded progress toward graduation.6

The tables below (and in the Appendix) show the relationships between UGPAs, MCAT total scores, and several of these outcomes for students who started medical school in 2006, 2007, and 2008. They show the rates at which medical students who entered with different combinations of UGPAs and MCAT total scores: (1) graduated in four years; (2) graduated in five years; (3) withdrew or were dismissed for academic reasons; (4) passed the USMLE Step 1, Step 2 CK, and Step 2 CS exams on their first attempt; and (5) eventually passed the Step exams.

Table 3 shows the relationships between UGPAs, MCAT total scores, and four-year graduation rates. Overall, 86% of the medical students graduated in four years, an impressive result given the 62% average graduation rate from U.S. graduate and professional schools generally (Bradburn, Nevill, Cataldi, & Perry, 2006). The percentages in the cells of Table 3 show that higher UGPAs and MCAT total scores generally are associated with higher four-year graduation rates.

6 The median corrected validity coefficient for predicting first-year medical school grades from UGPAs and MCAT total scores was .75, .71 for predicting second-year grades (Koenig & Wiley, 1997), and .54 for predicting third-year grades (Julian, 2005). The median corrected validity coefficient was .64 for predicting USMLE Step 1 scores from UGPAs and MCAT total scores, .54 for Step 2 Clinical Knowledge scores, and .55 for Step 3 scores (Kroopnick, Dunleavy, Dowd, Searcy, & Zhao, 2013).

10


GPA Total 5-14 15-17 18-20 21-23 24-26 27-29 30-32 33-35 36-38 39-45 All3.80-4.00 -- 92% 83% 90% 94% 96% 97% 97% 96% 95% 96%

11/12 78/94 312/347 1,264/1,347 3,324/3,478 4,396/4,539 3,320/3,433 1,812/1,881 626/660 15,146/15,7943.60-3.79 -- 54% 81% 88% 93% 95% 96% 96% 95% 95% 95%

7/13 108/134 366/414 1,240/1,334 3,268/3,449 4,135/4,310 2,610/2,717 1,092/1,144 254/266 13,081/13,7863.40-3.59 -- 57% 83% 83% 90% 94% 96% 96% 96% 95% 94%

8/14 97/117 293/352 953/1,062 2,264/2,398 2,897/3,029 1,583/1,650 574/599 129/136 8,802/9,3633.20-3.39 -- 72% 82% 81% 88% 93% 95% 96% 95% 94% 93%

13/18 83/101 247/304 522/593 1,114/1,193 1,307/1,373 729/763 263/276 47/50 4,327/4,6753.00-3.19 -- 68% 61% 80% 87% 93% 94% 95% 93% 88% 90%

13/19 37/61 140/174 277/320 472/509 503/537 264/279 95/102 14/16 1,816/2,0192.80-2.99 -- -- 60% 79% 84% 88% 94% 89% 95% 100% 86%

15/25 82/104 144/172 169/191 129/137 75/84 21/22 12/12 652/7552.60-2.79 -- 53% 74% 74% 84% 86% 96% -- 79%

10/19 32/43 42/57 62/74 42/49 24/25 218/2772.40-2.59 -- -- 80% 75% 85% 92% 100% -- 87%

8/10 15/20 17/20 23/25 10/10 80/922.20-2.39 -- -- -- -- -- -- 56%

10/182.00-2.19 -- -- -- -- -- -- --

1.47-1.99 -- -- -- --

All 52% 67% 78% 85% 91% 94% 96% 96% 96% 95% 94% 11/21 62/92 431/556 1,483/1,755 4,462/4,910 10,694/11,317 13,437/14,006 8,617/8,963 3,863/4,032 1,082/1,140 44,142/46,792

Table 4. Percentage of 2006-2008 Students Who Graduated from Medical School in Five Years, by MCAT Total Score and Undergraduate GPA Range

MCAT Total

Notes: 1. Blue shading = graduation rates of 90-100%; Green shading = graduation rates of 80-89%; Orange shading = graduation rates of 70-79%. 2. Dashes = cells with fewer than ten observations; blank cells = cells with zero observations. 3. Students enrolled in joint programs (e.g., MD-PhD), participating in special research/non-research studies, or deceased are not included in this table.4. For students who took the MCAT exam multiple times, the most recent MCAT total score at the time of matriculation was used in this analysis.

Table 4 shows the relationships between UGPAs, MCAT total scores, and five-year graduation rates. These data show that 94% of the students who entered medical school between 2006 and 2008 graduated in five years. The pattern of results shows that most students graduated from medical school in five years, including those who entered with modest MCAT scores. The percentages in the cells of Table 4 show that higher UGPAs and MCAT total scores generally are associated with higher five-year graduation rates.

11


GPA Total 5-14 15-17 18-20 21-23 24-26 27-29 30-32 33-35 36-38 39-45 All3.80-4.00 -- 8.3% 2.1% 2.8% 1.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7%

1/12 2/96 10/362 24/1,392 28/3,656 30/4,957 15/4,014 5/2,354 1/901 116/17,7473.60-3.79 -- 13.3% 5.9% 2.1% 2.3% 1.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 1.3%

2/15 8/136 9/427 32/1,370 68/3,603 41/4,642 25/3,121 5/1,412 1/354 192/15,0853.40-3.59 -- 7.1% 4.1% 5.7% 4.1% 1.5% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 1.2% 1.7%

1/14 5/122 21/369 45/1,100 38/2,524 34/3,283 17/1,889 6/728 2/169 169/10,2043.20-3.39 -- 5.6% 4.6% 7.6% 4.7% 1.5% 1.4% 1.6% 0.3% 1.8% 2.3%

1/18 5/108 24/316 29/623 19/1,255 21/1,472 13/835 1/310 1/57 115/4,9983.00-3.19 -- 10.5% 11.3% 7.7% 4.4% 2.6% 1.6% 0.3% 1.7% 5.9% 3.0%

2/19 7/62 14/181 15/338 14/537 9/566 1/306 2/117 1/17 65/2,1462.80-2.99 -- -- 10.3% 4.6% 8.3% 4.0% 0% 1.1% 0% 0% 4.5%

3/29 5/108 15/180 8/200 0/148 1/92 0/25 0/12 36/8022.60-2.79 -- 10.0% 6.5% 11.7% 9.2% 1.8% 3.7% -- 8.4%

2/20 3/46 7/60 7/76 1/55 1/27 25/2962.40-2.59 -- -- 0% 20.0% 4.8% 3.7% 0% -- 6.1%

0/11 4/20 1/21 1/27 0/11 6/982.20-2.39 -- -- -- -- -- -- 26.3%

5/192.00-2.19 -- -- -- -- -- -- --

1.47-1.99 -- -- -- --

All 13.6% 13.8% 5.9% 4.8% 3.4% 1.5% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 1.4% 3/22 13/94 34/578 88/1,828 171/5,088 184/11,877 138/15,157 73/10,297 21/4,958 6/1,510 731/51,409

Table 5. Percentage of 2006-2008 Students Who Withdrew or Were Dismissed from Medical School for Academic Reasons, by MCAT Total Score and Undergraduate GPA Range

MCAT Total

Notes: 1. Blue shading = withdrawal/dismissal rates of 0-10%; Green shading = withdrawal/dismissal rates of 10.1-20%; Orange shading = withdrawal/dismissal rates of 20.1-30%. 2. Dashes = cells with fewer than ten observations; blank cells = cells with zero observations. 3. For students who took the MCAT exam multiple times, the most recent MCAT total score at the time of matriculation was used in this analysis.

Table 5 shows the relationships between UGPAs, MCAT total scores, and withdrawal or dismissal from medical school for academic reasons. According to these data, only 1.4 percent of entrants withdrew or were dismissed from medical school for academic reasons. These results show a negative association between UGPAs, MCAT total scores, and this outcome. In general, lower UGPAs and MCAT total scores are associated with higher levels of academic withdrawal or dismissal from medical school for academic reasons.

Tables that show the same types of relationships between UGPAs, MCAT total scores, and USMLE Step exam pass rates appear in Appendix A. The data show positive relationships between UGPAs, MCAT total scores, and first-time and eventual pass rates on the Step exams. Refer to Tables A1, A3, and A5 for grids summarizing the relationships with first-time pass rates on USMLE Step 1, Step 2 CK, and Step 2 CS exams. Tables A2, A4, and A6 summarize these relationships for students eventual pass rates for these exams.

Taken together, the examination of graduation rates, withdrawal or dismissal from medical school for academic reasons, and USMLE Step exam pass rates suggests that applicants with a wide range of UGPAs and MCAT scores can succeed in medical school. These data suggest the facility with which admissions committee members predict their students eventual success by combining information about candidates qualifications from applications, transcripts, letters, and interviews with information about the curricula, support services, and graduation requirements of their medical schools. These results also are an important testament to the academic and other support that faculty provide to their students to help them succeed in medical school.

12


References

American Educational Research Association, American Psychological Association, & National Council on Measurement in Education. (1999). Standards for Educational and Psychological Testing (2nd ed.). Washington, DC: American Educational Research Association.

The Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 (ADA), codified at 42 U.S.C. 12101 et seq.

Bradburn, E. M., Nevill, S., Cataldi, E. F., & Perry, K. (2006). Where are they now? A description of 199293 bachelors degree recipients 10 years later (NCES 2007-159). U.S. Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.

Davis, D., Dorsey, J. K., Franks, R. D., Sackett, P. R., Searcy, C. A., & Zhao, X. (2013). Do racial and ethnic group differences in performance on the MCAT exam reflect test bias? Academic Medicine, 88(5), 593602.

Donnon, T., Paolucci, E. O., & Violato, C. (2007). The predictive validity of the MCAT for medical school performance and medical board licensing examinations: A meta-analysis of the published research. Academic Medicine, 82, 100106.

Dunleavy, D. M., Kroopnick, M. H., Dowd, K. W., Searcy, C. A., & Zhao, X. (2013). The predictive validity of the MCAT exam in relation to academic performance through medical school: A national cohort study of 2001-2004 matriculants. Academic Medicine, 88(5), 666671.

Dunleavy, D. M., Oppler, S. H., & Mitchell, K. (2008). [2008 Study of Medical School Admissions Policies and Practices]. Unpublished raw data.

Julian, E. R. (2005). Validity of the medical college admission test for predicting medical school performance. Academic Medicine, 80, 910917.

Koenig, J. A. & Wiley, A. (1997). Medical school admission testing. In R. F. Dillon (Ed.), Handbook on testing (pp. 274295). Westport, CT: Greenwood Press.

Kroopnick, M. H., Dunleavy, D. M., Dowd, K. W., Searcy, C. A., & Zhao, X. (2013). A comprehensive school-level analysis of the predictive validity of the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT). Paper presented at the annual conference of the American Educational Research Association, San Francisco.

Kuncel, N. R. & Hezlett, S. A. (2007). Standardized tests predict graduate students success. Science, 315, 10801081.

Roth, P. L., Bevier, C. A., Bobko, P., Switzer, F. S., III, & Tyler, P. (2001). Ethnic group differences in cognitive ability in employment and educational settings: A meta-analysis. Personnel Psychology, 54, 297330.

Sackett, P. R. & Shen, W. (2010). Subgroup differences on cognitive tests in contexts other than personnel selection. In J. L. Outtz (Ed.), Adverse impact: Implications for organizational staffing and high stakes selection (pp. 323346). New York, NY: Taylor & Francis Group.

Zhao, X., Dunleavy, D. M., Oppler, S. H., & Kroopnick, M. (2011). Alternative scoring approaches for retest scores: Implications for differential prediction. Poster presented at the annual conference of the Society for Industrial & Organizational Psychology, Chicago.

Zhao, X., Oppler, S. H., Dunleavy, D. M., & Kroopnick, M. (2010). Validity of four approaches of using repeaters MCAT scores in medical school admissions to predict USMLE Step 1 total scores. Academic Medicine, 85(10 Suppl), S64-S70.

Zheng, A. Y., Lawhorn, J. K., Lumley, T., & Freeman, S. (2008). Application of Blooms taxonomy debunks the MCAT Myth. Science, 319, 414415.

13


GPA Total 5-14 15-17 18-20 21-23 24-26 27-29 30-32 33-35 36-38 39-45 All3.80-4.00 -- 64% 79% 83% 90% 96% 98% 99% 99% 100% 97%

7/11 73/92 285/342 1,226/1,355 3,440/3,581 4,769/4,868 3,895/3,953 2,313/2,326 887/890 16,897/17,4213.60-3.79 -- 50% 68% 80% 89% 93% 96% 97% 99% 99% 95%

7/14 85/125 333/416 1,172/1,318 3,287/3,518 4,384/4,560 2,992/3,069 1,376/1,389 349/352 13,985/14,7643.40-3.59 -- 36% 66% 77% 83% 92% 96% 98% 98% 100% 93%

4/11 77/116 265/343 868/1,048 2,270/2,463 3,093/3,222 1,813/1,853 700/715 169/169 9,263/9,9463.20-3.39 -- 53% 58% 75% 81% 90% 94% 97% 98% 94% 90%

9/17 60/104 219/291 480/591 1,106/1,226 1,358/1,446 794/821 301/308 51/54 4,379/4,8623.00-3.19 -- 44% 49% 68% 80% 86% 92% 96% 97% 93% 86%

8/18 26/53 115/169 253/316 447/520 506/551 290/301 112/116 14/15 1,772/2,0622.80-2.99 -- -- 50% 62% 78% 85% 93% 92% 96% 92% 82%

13/26 61/98 135/172 161/189 136/146 83/90 24/25 11/12 628/7642.60-2.79 -- 35% 61% 73% 86% 92% 100% -- 79%

6/17 25/41 41/56 60/70 49/53 26/26 215/2732.40-2.59 -- -- 55% 72% 95% 96% 100% -- 85%

6/11 13/18 19/20 24/25 11/11 79/932.20-2.39 -- -- -- -- -- 50%

8/162.00-2.19 -- -- -- -- -- -- --

1.47-1.99 -- -- -- --

All 40% 51% 64% 76% 86% 93% 96% 98% 99% 99% 94% 8/20 43/84 341/536 1,312/1,718 4,191/4,879 10,793/11,591 14,324/14,878 9,906/10,126 4,837/4,890 1,481/1,492 47,236/50,214

Table A1. Percentage of 2006-2008 Students Passing the Step 1 Exam on the First Attempt, by MCAT Total Score and Undergraduate GPA Range

MCAT Total

Notes: 1. Blue shading = passing rates of 90-100%; Green shading = passing rates of 80-89%; Orange shading = passing rates of 70-79%. 2. Dashes = cells with fewer than ten observations; blank cells = cells with zero observations. 3. For students who took the MCAT exam multiple times, the most recent MCAT total score at the time of matriculation was used in this analysis.

GPA Total 5-14 15-17 18-20 21-23 24-26 27-29 30-32 33-35 36-38 39-45 All3.80-4.00 -- 100% 97% 97% 99% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

11/11 89/92 333/342 1,338/1,355 3,562/3,581 4,857/4,868 3,942/3,953 2,320/2,326 889/890 17,344/17,4213.60-3.79 -- 93% 97% 98% 99% 99% 99% 100% 100% 100% 99%

13/14 121/125 407/416 1,306/1,318 3,488/3,518 4,532/4,560 3,058/3,069 1,385/1,389 351/352 14,663/14,7643.40-3.59 -- 100% 97% 97% 98% 99% 99% 100% 100% 100% 99%

11/11 113/116 334/343 1,022/1,048 2,444/2,463 3,200/3,222 1,849/1,853 712/715 169/169 9,859/9,9463.20-3.39 -- 100% 94% 97% 98% 99% 99% 99% 100% 100% 99%

17/17 98/104 282/291 579/591 1,210/1,226 1,437/1,446 814/821 307/308 54/54 4,801/4,8623.00-3.19 -- 94% 87% 95% 98% 99% 99% 100% 99% 100% 98%

17/18 46/53 161/169 310/316 514/520 546/551 301/301 115/116 15/15 2,028/2,0622.80-2.99 -- -- 81% 96% 97% 98% 100% 100% 100% 100% 97%

21/26 94/98 166/172 185/189 146/146 90/90 25/25 12/12 744/7642.60-2.79 -- 82% 100% 91% 96% 96% 100% -- 95%

14/17 41/41 51/56 67/70 51/53 26/26 259/2732.40-2.59 -- -- 82% 100% 100% 100% 100% -- 98%

9/11 18/18 20/20 25/25 11/11 91/932.20-2.39 -- -- -- -- -- 88%

14/162.00-2.19 -- -- -- -- -- -- --

1.47-1.99 -- -- -- --

All 80% 95% 94% 97% 98% 99% 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% 16/20 80/84 505/536 1,667/1,718 4,795/4,879 11,494/11,591 14,800/14,878 10,093/10,126 4,875/4,890 1,490/1,492 49,815/50,214

Table A2. Percentage of 2006-2008 Students Eventually Passing the Step 1 Exam, by MCAT Total Score and Undergraduate GPA Range

MCAT Total


Appendix. Relationships between UGPAs, MCAT scores, and USMLE outcomes

14


GPA Total 5-14 15-17 18-20 21-23 24-26 27-29 30-32 33-35 36-38 39-45 All3.80-4.00 -- 100% 90% 97% 98% 99% 99% 100% 100% 100% 99%

11/11 76/84 315/324 1,289/1,311 3,432/3,481 4,618/4,647 3,619/3,623 2,037/2,043 722/722 16,122/16,2493.60-3.79 -- 90% 93% 95% 97% 98% 99% 99% 99% 100% 98%

9/10 106/114 366/384 1,238/1,282 3,328/3,398 4,292/4,350 2,827/2,852 1,248/1,255 289/289 13,705/13,9363.40-3.59 -- 90% 84% 95% 95% 98% 99% 99% 99% 99% 98%

9/10 91/108 304/320 951/998 2,327/2,376 3,043/3,083 1,723/1,741 638/645 147/148 9,236/9,4333.20-3.39 -- 93% 89% 89% 94% 97% 98% 98% 99% 98% 97%

14/15 81/91 242/272 513/547 1,134/1,168 1,366/1,393 763/775 278/282 50/51 4,443/4,5963.00-3.19 -- 87% 83% 90% 93% 93% 96% 96% 98% 100% 94%

13/15 35/42 135/150 276/296 464/498 510/530 275/285 104/106 14/14 1,827/1,9382.80-2.99 -- 88% 89% 91% 93% 95% 95% 96% 100% 93%

15/17 77/87 141/155 169/181 132/139 78/82 24/25 12/12 652/7032.60-2.79 -- 82% 87% 95% 94% 96% 92% -- 92%

9/11 33/38 42/44 62/66 44/46 23/25 219/2372.40-2.59 -- -- -- 94% 95% 100% 100% -- 97%

15/16 18/19 23/23 11/11 83/862.20-2.39 -- -- -- -- -- 85%

11/132.00-2.19 -- -- -- -- -- --

1.47-1.99 -- -- -- --

All 85% 90% 88% 93% 96% 98% 99% 99% 99% 100% 98% 11/13 65/72 415/470 1,485/1,589 4,469/4,654 10,937/11,191 14,034/14,217 9,320/9,396 4,337/4,365 1,234/1,236 46,307/47,203

Table A3. Percentage of 2006-2008 Students Passing the Step 2 CK Exam on the First Attempt, by MCAT Total Score and Undergraduate GPA Range

MCAT Total


GPA Total 5-14 15-17 18-20 21-23 24-26 27-29 30-32 33-35 36-38 39-45 All3.80-4.00 -- 100% 98% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

11/11 82/84 322/324 1,307/1,311 3,472/3,481 4,641/4,647 3,622/3,623 2,040/2,043 722/722 16,222/16,2493.60-3.79 -- 90% 98% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

9/10 112/114 379/384 1,277/1,282 3,391/3,398 4,344/4,350 2,848/2,852 1,254/1,255 289/289 13,905/13,9363.40-3.59 -- 100% 94% 99% 98% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

10/10 102/108 318/320 983/998 2,371/2,376 3,070/3,083 1,738/1,741 643/645 148/148 9,387/9,4333.20-3.39 -- 93% 99% 99% 99% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 99%

14/15 90/91 268/272 540/547 1,165/1,168 1,388/1,393 770/775 281/282 51/51 4,569/4,5963.00-3.19 -- 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 99% 100% 99% 100% 99%

15/15 42/42 149/150 294/296 495/498 525/530 285/285 105/106 14/14 1,925/1,9382.80-2.99 -- 100% 97% 98% 98% 99% 100% 96% 100% 98%

17/17 84/87 152/155 178/181 138/139 82/82 24/25 12/12 692/7032.60-2.79 -- 91% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% -- 99%

10/11 38/38 44/44 66/66 46/46 25/25 235/2372.40-2.59 -- -- -- 94% 95% 100% 100% -- 98%

15/16 18/19 23/23 11/11 84/862.20-2.39 -- -- -- -- -- 100%

13/132.00-2.19 -- -- -- -- -- --

1.47-1.99 -- -- -- --

All 92% 96% 97% 99% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 12/13 69/72 458/470 1,572/1,589 4,617/4,654 11,160/11,191 14,181/14,217 9,383/9,396 4,355/4,365 1,236/1,236 47,043/47,203

Table A4. Percentage of 2006-2008 Students Eventually Passing the Step 2 CK Exam, by MCAT Total Score and Undergraduate GPA Range

MCAT Total


15


GPA Total 5-14 15-17 18-20 21-23 24-26 27-29 30-32 33-35 36-38 39-45 All3.80-4.00 -- 90% 94% 99% 98% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99%

9/10 72/77 316/320 1,279/1,303 3,389/3,437 4,545/4,595 3,551/3,595 2,010/2,024 715/721 15,889/16,0853.60-3.79 -- -- 93% 95% 98% 98% 98% 99% 99% 99% 98%

100/108 353/371 1,242/1,261 3,280/3,361 4,223/4,311 2,788/2,830 1,226/1,236 284/286 13,506/13,7743.40-3.59 -- -- 91% 93% 96% 98% 97% 98% 99% 97% 97%

94/103 287/307 940/975 2,290/2,342 2,958/3,036 1,681/1,718 623/632 143/147 9,027/9,2733.20-3.39 -- 77% 90% 94% 94% 97% 98% 96% 97% 100% 96%

10/13 75/83 239/254 503/533 1,111/1,149 1,337/1,364 737/771 272/280 51/51 4,337/4,5003.00-3.19 -- 80% 87% 90% 98% 95% 96% 99% 95% 92% 95%

12/15 34/39 133/148 284/291 461/486 504/525 277/281 98/103 12/13 1,817/1,9032.80-2.99 -- 87% 91% 92% 95% 90% 94% 96% 100% 93%

13/15 75/82 139/151 168/176 119/132 73/78 23/24 12/12 625/6752.60-2.79 -- 73% 86% 93% 98% 96% 100% -- 93%

8/11 31/36 38/41 64/65 44/46 24/24 215/2302.40-2.59 -- -- -- 87% 100% 96% 100% -- 93%

13/15 18/18 22/23 10/10 76/822.20-2.39 -- -- -- -- -- 75%

9/122.00-2.19 -- -- -- -- -- --

1.47-1.99 -- -- -- --

All 100% 82% 90% 94% 97% 98% 98% 98% 99% 99% 98% 12/12 55/67 397/439 1,444/1,530 4,442/4,575 10,785/11,038 13,757/14,038 9,143/9,309 4,260/4,308 1,217/1,230 45,512/46,546

Table A5. Percentage of 2006-2008 Students Passing the Step 2 CS Exam on the First Attempt, by MCAT Total Score and Undergraduate GPA Range

MCAT Total


GPA Total 5-14 15-17 18-20 21-23 24-26 27-29 30-32 33-35 36-38 39-45 All3.80-4.00 -- 90% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 100% 100% 100% 99%

9/10 76/77 318/320 1,292/1,303 3,419/3,437 4,572/4,595 3,579/3,595 2,017/2,024 718/721 16,003/16,0853.60-3.79 -- -- 99% 97% 99% 99% 99% 99% 100% 100% 99%

107/108 360/371 1,254/1,261 3,329/3,361 4,283/4,311 2,815/2,830 1,232/1,236 286/286 13,676/13,7743.40-3.59 -- -- 98% 96% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 98% 99%

101/103 296/307 961/975 2,330/2,342 3,006/3,036 1,708/1,718 626/632 144/147 9,184/9,2733.20-3.39 -- 85% 96% 97% 99% 99% 99% 98% 99% 100% 99%

11/13 80/83 247/254 526/533 1,137/1,149 1,357/1,364 758/771 278/280 51/51 4,447/4,5003.00-3.19 -- 87% 97% 96% 99% 98% 99% 100% 97% 100% 98%

13/15 38/39 142/148 288/291 477/486 519/525 280/281 100/103 13/13 1,872/1,9032.80-2.99 -- 93% 98% 97% 97% 96% 100% 96% 100% 97%

14/15 80/82 147/151 171/176 127/132 78/78 23/24 12/12 657/6752.60-2.79 -- 82% 94% 98% 98% 100% 100% -- 97%

9/11 34/36 40/41 64/65 46/46 24/24 224/2302.40-2.59 -- -- -- 100% 100% 100% 100% -- 99%

15/15 18/18 23/23 10/10 81/822.20-2.39 -- -- -- -- -- 92%

11/122.00-2.19 -- -- -- -- -- --

1.47-1.99 -- -- -- --

All 100% 91% 97% 97% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 100% 99% 12/12 61/67 428/439 1,488/1,530 4,528/4,575 10,949/11,038 13,939/14,038 9,254/9,309 4,284/4,308 1,224/1,230 46,167/46,546

Table A6. Percentage of 2006-2008 Students Eventually Passing the Step 2 CS Exam, by MCAT Total Score and Undergraduate GPA Range

MCAT Total


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