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McGraw-HillMcGraw-Hill © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.© 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Trend Forecastin
gChapter Five
Core Concepts in Fashion by Laura Portolese DiasCore Concepts in Fashion by Laura Portolese Dias
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Chapter FiveTrend Forecasting
Fashion forecasting is the process of predicting new trends– Can use a variety of tools to predict– Newspapers, magazines
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Chapter FiveTrend Forecasting
Trickle-up theory– Thorstein Veblen
First discussed the idea of social classes
– George Simmel Believed in order for a fashion to become accepted, it
first had to be accepted by upper classes Theory suggests because people in the lower classes
prefer to associate themselves with upper class, they would eventually adopt the fashion of upper class.
At this point in time, the fashion would be rejected by the upper class
Theory is hard to apply today because there are many more classes and social structure is much different
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Chapter FiveTrend Forecasting
Trickle up theory– Sometimes called the “bottom up
theory”– Fashion begins in lower classes of
society and trickles up, then is eventually copied by upper classes
– Example: Grunge fashion
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Chapter FiveTrend Forecasting
Trickle across theory – Sometimes called the horizontal flow theory – Believes that fashion flows in between
social groups– Sometimes lower classes will start trends,
and sometimes upper classes will start trends
– Mass communication, such as the internet allows people to see all forms of fashion
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Chapter FiveTrend Forecasting
External Forces effecting fashion– Social– Economic– Political– Legal– Technological – Global
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Chapter FiveTrend Forecasting
Social issues effecting fashion– Age
View on age has changed People in the upper years of their life are
more active No longer an “expected” outfit for someone
based solely on age
– Women in the workforce Needed new types of clothing as women
entered the workforce
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Chapter FiveTrend Forecasting
Social Issues effecting fashion– Men and their appearance
Acceptable for men to care about their appearance
Special creams, lotion and clothing developed for men in recent years
– Ethnic influences Ethnic clothing can inspire new designs Immigrant population of United States brings
many forms of fashion together
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Chapter FiveTrend Forecasting
Economic Forces effecting fashion– Consumer income
Total income– The amount a person makes from all sources
Personal income– The total amount of income less social security
taxes Disposable income
– The total amount of income less federal income taxes, sales tax and property tax
Discretionary income– The amount left over after paying all taxes and
paying for necessities like food and rent
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Chapter FiveTrend Forecasting
Economic Forces effecting fashion– Purchasing power
The amount of goods which can be purchased for the same amount of money in a given time period
Things effecting purchasing power:– Interest rates– Inflation– Recessions and layoffs
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Chapter FiveTrend Forecasting
Legal forces effecting fashion– Mergers or acquisition
The sale of a company to another
– Importing regulations Importing is when a good from one country
is sent to another country
– Requirements for labeling Concerns how products should be labeled For example, requirements for care of
garment
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Chapter FiveTrend Forecasting
Political forces effecting fashion– Clothing can change depending on
which party is in office Technological forces effecting
fashion– Ability to communicate new fashions
quicker through internet– Use of computers for garment design– Online shopping
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Chapter FiveTrend Forecasting
Global Issues effecting fashion– Trade agreements
For example, NAFTA made it possible to have clothing made in Mexico and ship to the United States at no additional cost
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Chapter FiveTrend Forecasting
Tools to predict fashion– Primary data
Data which is researched and gathered For example, watching for new trends at a
local club would be considered primary data
– Secondary data Newspapers, magazines, websites-any type
of data which was not gathered by you
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Chapter FiveTrend Forecasting
Collection reports– Expensive but helpful– Shows sketches, textile selection and
other important data about a designer collection
Trend reports– Similar to collection reports, but focus
on a variety of designers, rather than just one designer
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Chapter FiveTrend Forecasting
Color services– Research and predict new upcoming colors
Websites– Can research websites to find out about
street trends Trade publications– Any publication made for a specific
industry– Women’s Wear Daily is an example
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Chapter FiveTrend Forecasting
Music/Movies/Television– Watching what stars are wearing can be
a good predictor of new fashions Street Fashion– Watching what the everyday trendsetter
is wearing can help predict fashion