Scenarios: Very Serious Fiction

1950’s

•Developed by RAND for U.S. Military

•World War III

1960’s

•Modified as business tool by Herman Kahn

•Doomsday Machine & Cold War

Today

•University of Houston Clear Lake

•Kiski area schools in Pittsburgh

Why Build Scenarios

How to Build Scenarios: The Process

Identify2

ProduceReduce

Match

Create

Select

How to Build Scenarios: Perspectives

Miracle Optimistic Status Quo Pessimistic Disaster

How to Build Scenarios: Methods

Other Methods: Fortunately / Unfortunately

Other Methods: Scenario Construction for Forecasting

Figure 2: The Process of Scenario Formulation, p. 40. Forge, Blackman, Bohlin.

Preparing to PracticeClaim your space and use the text tool to share one library trend that you brought with you

Breakout Group Recap

Limitations to Scenario Building