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MDSS Lab Prototype: MDSS Lab Prototype: Program Update and HighlightsProgram Update and Highlights
Bill Mahoney
National Center For Atmospheric Research(NCAR)
MDSS Stakeholder MeetingBoulder, CO20 October 2005Photo by Dave Parsons
2
Overview
• Overall System Enhancements• Colorado Routes• System Configuration• New Products• Challenges• Release-4.0
3
System Enhancements for Field Demo
• Added Bridge Frost Potential Product– Based on Iowa State University Model (Tina Greenfield)
• Added snow-water ratio algorithm• Added CDOT & E-470 ESS data (via MADIS)• Refined Rules of Practice for E-470 and CDOT• Refined insolation data sources (model blend)
4
Colorado Routes
West Denver
South Denver
Vail Pass
300 forecast site
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MDSS Configuration – Colorado
Forecast Models Initialization Data Sources
MM5 AVN
RAMS Eta WRF RUC
Supplemental Weather Models
Ensemble SystemModel InitializationMM5 NAM (Eta)WRF NAM (Eta)
National Weather Service Data
Eta Model AVN MOSGFS Model SYNOPMETARS
DOT Data
RWIS
.
.
.
DataIngest
Forecast Module A
Forecast Module B
Forecast Module C
Forecast Module D
Forecast Module N
ForecastIntegrator
PostProcessor
ForecastProduct
Data Fusion - Road Weather Forecast System
DICastTM
Road Condition & Treatment Module
- Road Temperature Prediction Model- Chemical Concentration Algorithms- Rules of Practice for Anti- and Deicing
Rapid Update Cycle (RUC)
MultipleMembers
Plow route specific treatment recommendations
6
Supplemental Weather Forecast Model Domain
4 April 2005 - 24 hr forecast valid 3 pm5 April 2005.
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MM5 and WRF Models
Time Lagged Ensemble Used
MM5 – Latest
MM5 – Run from 1 hour previous
MM5 – Run from 2 hours previous
WRF – Latest
WRF – Run from 1 hour previous
WRF – Run from 2 hours previous
FSL Model System Configuration
WRF output 9 November 2004
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• Intense direct solar radiation effects
• Diurnal temperature variations• Strong nocturnal inversions• Shallow cold fronts• Large spread in model
precipitation forecasts• Rain-to-Snow transition
MDSS Colorado Challenges
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Strong Diurnal Temperature Swings
43oFat
7 AM
83oFat
11 AM
Challenge for air and pavement prediction
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Strong Nocturnal Inversions
Surface Temperature = 45oF
Temperature at 1000 ft AGL = 60oF
All models have great difficulty with shallow
layers!
Impacts:
Road frostFogRoad Temperatures
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Early Morning Fog Case14 November 2004
Low clouds and fogobserved
Clear skies in WRF model
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Shallow Upslope Case
Shallow upslope cloudsModel estimation of clouds
13
Mountain Wave Clouds
WRF Model Satellite Image
WRF was able to predict some wave
clouds, which is important for Front
Range
Wave Clouds
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Weather models smooth out terrain details resulting in poor forecasts at peaks and valleys.
Resolving Complex Terrain
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Resolving Complex Terrain
Standard NWS models cannot resolve details of the rugged terrain.
T254~30 mile grid resolution
T170~60 mile grid resolution
WRF Terrain~6 mile grid
WRF Model Terrain 12-km Grid
Black Hills
Big HornsTeton
San Juan
Central Rockies
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Halloween Snow Event CaseModel Differences
WRF Model MM5 Model
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MDSS Release-4.0
Expected to be last major Lab MDSSRelease!
Release available mid fall 2005
• Major refinements to Rules Practice• Minor refinements to road temperature model (SNTHERM-RT)• Route by route configuration• Add reasons for recommended treatment• Add additional chemical equations (Caliber, IceBan)• Add blowing snow effect on treatments• Refine black ice (refreeze) treatment logic• Add ability to mix chemical types (user defined treatments)• Refine display products as necessary
Release-4:
Fall 2005