Meadow_I Love Cash Flow_Autumn 2011

8/9/2019 Meadow_I Love Cash Flow_Autumn 2011

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I Love Cash Flow

Clinical Professor Scott F. MeadowCommercializing Innovation: Tools to Research and AnalyzePrivate Enterprises


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2Clinical Prof. Scott Meadow

Commercializing Innovation

Discipline and Detail help Us Avoid Life

s Little Hazards


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Entrepreneur and Investor: Issues impairing the partnership

• Lack of efficiency in deploying capital to private equity projects

• Limited “joint” development of the projects underlying profit formula

• No systematic methodology for forecasting the fixed and variable coststructure of the enterprise

• Difficulty in predicting meaningful “milestones” for the project

• Lack of transparency in the Company’s forecasts

• Limited analytical support for the long term trajectory of the business

• As variances occur, no foundation for “editing” the business concept


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A Brick House is Made of Bricks and The Bricks are Made fromGrains of Sand


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Phase 1b: Screening - Analog Selection

Template

Case:

Staples (A)

Criteria

FCF

Analogs

Cases:

Just GrapesVision EnterprisesWind O&M

Reference Analogs

18 Month and 10 Year

Unit Model

Assumptions

Unit Level FCF, IRR, CoC

Normalized SG&A

Investment

Cases:SLABSporting Goods StoreSunriseHealthConnect

FCF and Real SG&A Reference Analogs

Monthly Contribution

Rollup

Assumptions

# Units per year, etc.

Comparables

IRR/CoC Table of

Returns - Common

Equity

Theoretical Valuations

APV, NPV

Table of Returns -

Structured Deal

Term Sheet

Negotiated Deal

Table of Capitalization

Budget

Plan

Marketing

Research

Verification

Research Issues

Cases:

Sporting Goods

Pay-Ease

Brokered

Example: Direct

Editing

Marketing Options

Cases:

AYS

Life Sciences

Cash Usage with

Lag

Marketing Effects

Modified Roll-up

Total Build-up with

Effects of any JV

Prose on decision

Cases:

AYS

Pay-Ease

Gantt Chart

Case: All

Joint

Ventures

Case:

Life Sciences

MonitorInvestments

Case: All KPI

Cases:Vision EnterprisesSunriseHealthConnect

Cases: SenreQ

Sporting Goods Store

Marcia RadosevichLife Sciences Comp.

Case:SenreQ




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Clinical Prof. Scott Meadow


What is an Analog (Our Grains of Sand)?

• An analog is a company or group of companies derived from “secondary

market research, confirmed by personal interviews” that mirror the

economics, operating characteristics, investment requirements and

customer profile of our new project. Among other things, analogs allow us to:

• Model a cost structure for our concept or target company at the level of individual

cost components that reflects the economics of similar businesses

• Forecast the likely sales cycle of our customer

• Hypothesize about the investment requirements we can anticipate


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Step 1: Selecting Analogs

• Look at companies:

• In the same line of business or industry• With similar cost structures

• That pursue the same customers

• Have comparable payment terms

• Follow the same business and economic cycles

• Require the same level of initial investment

• Have grown or are projected to grow at the same rate


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Some Key Resources


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Some Key Resources :Secondary, Primary and “Personal

Research”


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Qualitative Analog Matrix for a Vertical Search Engine Venture


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Quantitative Analog Matrix for a Vertical Search Engine Venture


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Our House is Made of Individual Bricks


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Phase 1c: Screening – Development of Unit Model :We are notValuing but “Evaluating the Profit Formula” and determining the

“Peak Cash” Template

Case:

Staples (A)

Criteria

FCF

Analogs

Cases:

Just GrapesVision EnterprisesWind O&M

Reference Analogs


Unit Model

Assumptions


Normalized SG&A

Investment


FCF and Real SG&A Reference Analogs


Rollup

Assumptions


Comparables

IRR/CoC Table of

Returns - Common

Equity


APV, NPV

Table of Returns -

Structured Deal

Term Sheet

Negotiated Deal


Budget

Plan

Marketing

Research

Verification

Research Issues

Cases:

Sporting Goods

Pay-Ease

Brokered

Example: Direct

Editing

Marketing Options

Cases:

AYS

Life Sciences

Cash Usage with

Lag

Marketing Effects

Modified Roll-up

Total Build-up with

Effects of any JV

Prose on decision

Cases:

AYS

Pay-Ease

Gantt Chart

Case: All

Joint

Ventures

Case:

Life Sciences

MonitorInvestments

Case: All KPI


Cases: SenreQ



Case:SenreQ




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Construct a Unit Model to Evaluate the Profit Formula of theBusiness in Microcosm

• A unit model reflects operations of a single location/account

• Does not include system-wide advertising, marketing or other SG&A• Analogs provide information on individual store (i.e. unit) operating

economics

• i.e. Margins and number of people employed

• Typically analogs are more established companies (and larger than thecompany in the case) as smaller companies are not generally public

• Consequently they are especially good guides for expenses in years 6-10

• To get the expense level in the early years, use older financial statements

• S-1 (filed at IPO) is typically the earliest source of public financials

Overview of Unit Model (A Single Brick)


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Step 2: Construct a Unit Model

• Use analogs for direct costs, no rmalized SG&A and CAPEX

• Revenues (-) COGS (-) Operating Expenses (=) Unit Level Profit Contribution• Unit Level Prof i t Contr ibut ion (-) Normalized SG&A (=) EBITDA

• EBITDA (-) Depreciation & Amortization (-) Taxes (=) Net Income

• Net Income (+) Depreciation (-) Capital Expenditures (-/+) Working Capital (=)Unit Level Cash Flow

• Rely on personal experience and anecdotal evidence

• Ask yourself how much you’d be willing to do the job for as a starting point forsalary

Evaluating the Unit Model

• Calculate 5 and 10-year IRR and Cash-on-Cash returns

• No terminal value• Negative sign initially due to investment

• Do a sanity check – do the numbers make sense?

• Calculate 24 monthly columns for monitoring and editing purposes


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Unit Model – Summary (Primary Business Model for Wind Farm Oand M Business)

Dollars in Thousands Projected

Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 CAGR

Revenue Mix

Contract Revenue $1,200 $4,944 $5,092 $5,245 $5,402 $5,565 $5,731 $5,903 $6,080 $6,263 18%

Revenue Share from Performance Enhancement 0 138 276 414 552 552 552 552 552 552 17%

Total Revenue [A] $1,200 $5,082 $5,368 $5,659 $5,954 $6,116 $6,283 $6,455 $6,632 $6,815 19%

Operating ExpensesSite Manager / Supervisor $20 $82 $85 $87 $90 $93 $96 $98 $101 $104

Technicians 228 937 743 765 788 811 836 861 887 913

Admin Staff 8 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39

Specialist (Repairs and Overhauls) 83 343 354 364 375 386 398 410 422 435

Equipment / Other Direct Expenses 378 1,556 1,602 1,650 1,700 1,751 1,803 1,858 1,913 1,971

Non-Direct Expenses 78 322 326 300 309 318 328 337 347 358

Total Operating Expenses [B] $794 $3,272 $3,141 $3,200 $3,296 $3,394 $3,496 $3,601 $3,709 $3,820

Normalized SG&A 10.0% 120 494 509 525 540 556 573 590 608 626

Total SG&A $914 $3,766 $3,651 $3,724 $3,836 $3,951 $4,069 $4,191 $4,317 $4,447

EBITDA $286 $1,316 $1,718 $1,935 $2,119 $2,166 $2,214 $2,264 $2,315 $2,368

Margin (% of Revenue) 24% 27% 34% 37% 39% 39% 39% 38% 38% 38%

Depreciation & Amortization $118 $120 $122 $125 $128 $131 $133 $136 $139 $143

EBIT $168 $1,196 $1,595 $1,810 $1,991 $2,035 $2,081 $2,128 $2,176 $2,226


Cash Taxes 35.0% $59 $419 $558 $633 $697 $712 $728 $745 $762 $779

Net Income $109 $777 $1,037 $1,176 $1,294 $1,323 $1,352 $1,383 $1,414 $1,447

Adjustments to Net Income for Unit Level Cash Flow:

Deduct: Initial Investment ($2,680) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Add Back: Depreciation - 118 120 122 125 128 131 133 136 139 143

Deduct: Capital expenditures - (12) (49) (51) (52) (54) (56) (57) (59) (61) (63)

Deduct: Incr. in Working Capital - (99) (308) (12) (13) (13) (13) (14) (14) (15) (15)

Unit Level Cash Flow ($2,680) $116 $540 $1,096 $1,236 $1,355 $1,384 $1,415 $1,446 $1,478 $1,512


Memo:

Unit Profit Contribution [C]=[A]-[B] $406 $1,810 $2,227 $2,459 $2,659 $2,722 $2,787 $2,854 $2,923 $2,994


5-year 10-year

IRR 14.2% 29.6%

Cash-on-cash 1.8x 5.4x


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Dollars in Thousands Projected

Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 CAGR

Revenue Mix

Contract Revenue $1,200 $4,944 $5,092 $5,245 $5,402 $5,565 $5,731 $5,903 $6,080 $6,263 18%

Revenue Share from Performance Enhancement 0 138 276 414 552 552 552 552 552 552 17%

Total Revenue [A] $1,200 $5,082 $5,368 $5,659 $5,954 $6,116 $6,283 $6,455 $6,632 $6,815 19%

Operating Expenses

Site Manager / Supervisor $20 $82 $85 $87 $90 $93 $96 $98 $101 $104Technicians 228 937 743 765 788 811 836 861 887 913

Admin Staff 8 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39

Specialist (Repairs and Overhauls) 83 343 354 364 375 386 398 410 422 435

Equipment / Other Direct Expenses 378 1,556 1,602 1,650 1,700 1,751 1,803 1,858 1,913 1,971

Non-Direct Expenses 78 322 326 300 309 318 328 337 347 358

Total Operating Expenses [B] $794 $3,272 $3,141 $3,200 $3,296 $3,394 $3,496 $3,601 $3,709 $3,820

Normalized SG&A 10.0% 120 494 509 525 540 556 573 590 608 626

Total SG&A $914 $3,766 $3,651 $3,724 $3,836 $3,951 $4,069 $4,191 $4,317 $4,447

EBITDA $286 $1,316 $1,718 $1,935 $2,119 $2,166 $2,214 $2,264 $2,315 $2,368


Depreciation & Amortization $118 $120 $122 $125 $128 $131 $133 $136 $139 $143

EBIT $168 $1,196 $1,595 $1,810 $1,991 $2,035 $2,081 $2,128 $2,176 $2,226Margin (% of Revenue) 14% 24% 31% 35% 37% 37% 36% 36% 36% 36%

Cash Taxes 35.0% $59 $419 $558 $633 $697 $712 $728 $745 $762 $779

Net Income $109 $777 $1,037 $1,176 $1,294 $1,323 $1,352 $1,383 $1,414 $1,447

Adjustments to Net Income for Unit Level Cash Flow:

Deduct: Initial Investment ($2,680) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Add Back: Depreciation - 118 120 122 125 128 131 133 136 139 143

Deduct: Capital expenditures - (12) (49) (51) (52) (54) (56) (57) (59) (61) (63)

Deduct: Incr. in Working Capital - (99) (308) (12) (13) (13) (13) (14) (14) (15) (15)

Unit Level Cash Flow ($2,680) $116 $540 $1,096 $1,236 $1,355 $1,384 $1,415 $1,446 $1,478 $1,512


Memo:

Unit Profit Contribution [C]=[A]-[B] $406 $1,810 $2,227 $2,459 $2,659 $2,722 $2,787 $2,854 $2,923 $2,994Margin (% of Revenue) 34% 37% 44% 47% 49% 49% 49% 48% 48% 48%

5-year 10-year

IRR 14.2% 29.6%


Unit Model – Summary (Primary Business Model)

RevenueFormula

CostStructure

WorkingCapital &Maint.Capex

InitialInvestment


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Unit Model – Initial Investment Breakdown

Key Insigh ts:

• Remote Monitoring Equipment: Reflects a major portion of the initial

investment (i.e. 75%)• Alternatively, the O&M business

model could contemplate additionalmanpower on call 24/7 & makingregularly scheduled visits

• Tradeoff: recruiting and ongoingpersonnel costs v. one-time capital

expenditure (refer to alternative UnitModel )

• Inventory: Replacement parts areheld by wind farm operators. If theO&M business was required to holdinventory, initial investment costsand complexity of the businesswould increase significantly

• Initial Marketing: Invest heavily tosecure initial reference customersthrough marketing activities andCEO’s personal attention

Initial Investment ($ in 000s) Input $

% of

Total

Init ial Fixed A ssets per Unit

[1] Cost per service truck $30

[2] Number of trucks needed 4

Total Cost for Service Trucks $120 4%

[3] Maintenance capex as % of sales 1%

Remote Moni tor ing Equ ipment

[4] Monitoring equipment initial cost ($000s) $20

Product and services covered

Hardware, Installation, Training

[5] W ind turbines 100

Total Estimated Remote Monitoring Costs $2,000 75%

Comput ing Equipment

[6] Laptops $32[7] Multifunction Printer $1

[8] Server $1

Total Computing Equipment Costs $34 1%

[9] Initial Inventory $0 0%

Inventory as % of initial investment 0%

[10] Initial Accounts Payable $0 0%

Initial accounts payable as % of inventory 0%

[11] O&M On Site Office Building $205 8%

Depreciation life (years) 20

Pre-Openi ng Expen ses

[12] Initial Sales and Marketing $222

[13] Allocation of CEOs time for initial sale 50% $100

Total Pre-Opening Expenses $322 12%

Total Initial Investment per Unit ($000s) $2,680 100%


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Types of Unit Models

There are generally four types of unit models:

1. Physical Location or Store• Examples: Facility-based businesses: retail stores, lab facilities, production plants,

retirement communities, hospitals, etc.

2. Geographic Region – appropriate for specialty consumer products or services• Example: a new product launched in a target SMSA*/city

3. Allocated Development Costs/Initial Reference Accounts – appropriate forproducts or services with an individual, multi-year customer account, recurringrevenue.

• Examples: business software platforms and business outsourcing services

4. Specialized Asset – predominantly used for biotech ventures• Tracks annual cash injections that result in a liquidity option at the time of a new stage of

funding/development• One of only two unit models incorporating a terminal value (the other is real estate)

• Terminal value can be used as proxy for liquidity value at end of project

*SMSA - Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area


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Unit Model Initial Investment Assumptions from Analogs

• Initial Fixed Assets – 400k• Represents median of Best Buy, Oshman’s,

Staples, & BizMart initial fixed investmentin leasehold improvements and FFE.

• Initial Inventory – 2.3M• Represents mean of initial inventory per

square foot multiplied by 40,000 squarefeet. Analogs used are Best Buy,

Oshman’s, Staples, & Bizmart.

• Initial A / P – 1.15M• Most analogs show initial AP is half initial

inventory.

• Pre-Opening Costs – 88.5k• Mean of analogs.

• Depreciable Life – 10 years• Standard used in analogs.

• Maintenance CapEx (as % of sales)• 0.5%, assumed from analogs.


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Unit Model Revenue and Cost Assumptions from Analogs

• Revenue Assumptions:• $9 million total; the industry average is $8 million in sales per store. However, their stores will

be larger than industry average. 40k sqft vs. 30k sq ft.

• Square footage per store• 40,000 (of selling space) compares to existing competitors like Academy’s 30k sqft stores and

Modell’s of 15k sqft stores.

• Average Sales/sqft• $225/sqft, slightly higher than Sportmart ($220/sq ft) and lower than Sports Chalet ($232/sq ft).

One would expect lower number for the increased store size, but believe the big box conceptwill offset this fall in sales.

• Sales growth rate• We forecast 20% growth in first year, 15% in the second year, 7% the third, and 2% thereafter

(the rate of inflation and industry expansion). First-year numbers based off of Sports andRecreation Inc. which experienced 10-20% annual growth during ramp up in years 1-3.

• Mature same store sales growth

• We modeled 2% growth in same stores as a reflection of industry expectations of futuregrowth in the industry. (Baird Industry Report)


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Unit Model Revenue and Cost Assumptions from Analogs (cont

d)

• Gross margin of 25%

• Near analogs Best Buy (25.1%) and Staples (24.5%). Analogs include rent, unit model

estimate of absolute COGS factors this in.

• In-store expenses - $19/sq ft

• Breaking this down rent will be $11/sqft given price of other leasing destination stores in 1988,such as Staples, and utilities will be $8/sqft in power strips vs. their in mall competitors whichcould face up to much steeper costs per square foot.

• Normalized SG&A - 11% of revenue

• Given SG&A of BBY (18.8%), SPLS (21.0%) & TOY (18.8%), SGCS will have a SG&A ofabout 19%. These analogs include store operating expenses such as rent, utilities, & storelabor. Our estimates of these items average 8%, so we use 11% for normalized SG& A.


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Unit Model Revenue and Cost Assumptions from Analogs (cont

d)

• Salary for management and sales associates in Fort Lauderdale were calculatedusing salary.com and brought back 18 years using the US government’s Employment

Cost Index (ECI).• Manager ’s Salary in 1987 was $22,000

• 4 managers; based on Sports Authority’s store model

• Estimating benefits atop salary will be 36%

• Sales Associate’s salary in 1987 was $12,400

• Operating times 9am - 9pm Mon-Sat, 10am – 6pm Sunday; 80 hours/week, times 52 weeks equals 4160hours/year

• During each hour eight employees will be on staff; based on Sports Authority’s store model

• Estimating benefits atop salary will be 25%.

• Growth will be 3.8%; determined by the 18 year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) ofsalary.

• Days receivable, inventory turnover and days payable are calculated based on themedian of the analogs.

• Days Receivable 9.4 days• Inventory Turnover 3.1x

• Days Payable 51.3 days

• Taxes in 1988 will be 36%; the federal statutory rate is 34% plus 2% for state tax(Oshman’s AR & Tax Policy Center)

Ph i l i S B d U i M d l A i f


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Physical Location or Store-Based Unit Model Assumptions forIncome Statement

Revenue assumptions Assumption Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10

Selling Sq Footage (HPV & Mgmt Assumption) 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000

Average Sales Per Square Foot 0.225 0.225 0.270 0.311 0.332 0.339 0.346 0.353 0.360 0.367 0.374

Growth Rate (HPV Assumption) 20.0% 15.0% 7.0%

Mature Year Same Store Sales 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

Total Revenue 9,000 10,800 12,420 13,289 13,555 13,826 14,103 14,385 14,673 14,966

Direct expense assumptions

COGS as % of revenue (excl. depreciation) 66.6% 66.6% 66.6% 66.6% 66.6% 66.6% 66.6% 66.6% 66.6% 66.6% 66.6%

(Source: Analogs A and B)

Total COGS 5,990 7,188 8,266 8,845 9,022 9,202 9,386 9,574 9,765 9,961

In store manager

Salary (Source: HPV assumption) 30 30 31 32 34 35 36 38 39 40 42

Percent annual raise 3.8%

FTEs 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

Total Manager Expense 120 125 129 134 139 145 150 156 162 168

Sales Associates

Salary (Source: HPV assumption) 30 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39

Percent annual raise 3.0%

FTEs 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0Total Salespeople Expense 240 247 255 262 270 278 287 295 304 313

In-store expenses (Rent and utilities) 760 760 760 760 760 760 760 760 760 760

Expenses per Sqr Foot (Source: HPV Assumption) 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.019

Normalized SG&A 11.0% 990 1,188 1,366 1,462 1,491 1,521 1,551 1,582 1,614 1,646

($ in 000s)

Ph i l L ti St B d U it M d l A ti f


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Physical Location or Store-Based Unit Model Assumptions forCash Flow Analysis

Cash flow assumptions Assumption Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10

Total Revenue 9,000 10,800 12,420 13,289 13,555 13,826 14,103 14,385 14,673 14,966

Accounts receivable 232 278 320 342 349 356 363 370 378 385

Collection days (Source: Analog A & B) 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4

% of revenue 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%

Unit COGS 5,990 7,188 8,266 8,845 9,022 9,202 9,386 9,574 9,765 9,961

Inventory 2,300 1,932 2,319 2,667 2,853 2,910 2,968 3,028 3,088 3,150 3,213

Inventory turnover (Source: Analog A & B) 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1

% of revenue 21.5% 21.5% 21.5% 21.5% 21.5% 21.5% 21.5% 21.5% 21.5% 21.5%

Accounts payable 1,150 842 1,010 1,162 1,243 1,268 1,293 1,319 1,346 1,373 1,400

Days payable (Source: Analog A & B) 51.3 51.3 51.3 51.3 51.3 51.3 51.3 51.3 51.3 51.3

% of revenue 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4%

Net working capital 1,150 1,322 1,587 1,825 1,952 1,991 2,031 2,072 2,113 2,155 2,199

change in NWC (172.2) (264.4) (238.0) (127.7) (39.0) (39.8) (40.6) (41.4) (42.3) (43.1)

Fixed assets

Beginning balance 400 401 405 411 414 413 405 392 373 349 Additions: Maintenance capital expenditures 45 54 62 66 68 69 71 72 73 75

Subtractions: Depreciation 45 50 56 63 70 76 83 91 98 106

Ending balance 400 401 405 411 414 413 405 392 373 349 318

Depreciation life 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0

($ in 000s)

Ph i l L ti St B d U it M d l I St t t


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Physical Location or Store-Based Unit Model – Income Statement

Operational

Total Revenue 9,000 10,800 12,420 13,289 13,555 13,826 14,103 14,385 COGS 5,990 7,188 8,266 8,845 9,022 9,202 9,386 9,574

Gross profit 3,010 3,612 4,154 4,445 4,533 4,624 4,717 4,811

Operating expenses

In store manager 120 125 129 134 139 145 150 156

Sales associates 240 247 255 262 270 278 287 295

In-store expense (rent and utilities) 760 760 760 760 760 760 760 760

Total Operating Expenses 1,120 1,132 1,144 1,156 1,169 1,183 1,197 1,211

Normalized SG&A 11.0% 990 1,188 1,366 1,462 1,491 1,521 1,551 1,582

Total SG&A 2,110 2,320 2,510 2,618 2,660 2,704 2,748 2,793

EBITDA 900 1,292 1,644 1,826 1,873 1,920 1,969 2,018

% margin 10.0% 12.0% 13.2% 13.7% 13.8% 13.9% 14.0% 14.0%

Depreciation 45 50 56 63 70 76 83 91

EBIT 856 1,242 1,588 1,764 1,803 1,844 1,885 1,927

% margin 9.5% 11.5% 12.8% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3% 13.4% 13.4%

Taxes 36.0% 308 447 572 635 649 664 679 694

Net income 548 795 1,016 1,129 1,154 1,180 1,206 1,233Memo:

Unit profit contribution 1,890 2,480 3,010 3,288 3,364 3,441 3,520 3,600

% margin 21.0% 23.0% 24.2% 24.7% 24.8% 24.9% 25.0% 25.0%

($ in 000s)

Ph i l L ti St B d U it M d l C h Fl


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Physical Location or Store-Based Unit Model – Cash FlowAnalysis

Projected

Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10

Unit Level Cash Flow

Net income 548 795 1,016 1,129 1,154 1,180 1,206 1,233 1,260 1,288

Depreciation 45 50 56 63 70 76 83 91 98 106

Capital expenditures (45) (54) (62) (66) (68) (69) (71) (72) (73) (75)

Working capital (172) (264) (238) (128) (39) (40) (41) (41) (42) (43)

Unit Level Cash Flow 375 527 772 997 1,117 1,148 1,179 1,211 1,243 1,276

Financing & IRR

Initial fixed assets per unit (400)

Initial inventory (2,300)

Initial accounts payable 1,150

Pre-opening expenses (89)

Unit Level Cash Flow (incl. investment) (1,639) 375 527 772 997 1,117 1,148 1,179 1,211 1,243 1,276

5-ye ar 10-ye ar

IRR 29.0% 42.0%


($ in 000s)


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MMMM

Grade Current Considerations

Market B

• First market will be Columbus, OH. • Favorable demographics1

– High median household income – High retail sales per capita

– Disproportionately young population (penetration ofcompeting products strongest among youngercustomers)

• Seasonal patterns consistent with strong product demand

Model B

• Geographic Model based on saturating a givenmetropolitan area before expanding into new areas;limiting geographic roll-out to decrease inventory anddistribution uncertainties.

• Outsourced manufacturing• Utilization of brokers to gain entry into drug, grocery,

and mass merchandise chains.

• Manufacturing could be brought in house once a criticalsales volume has been achieved.

• Competition will be intense. Added investment in R&D(line extensions), Patent Rights, and Advertising may benecessary to both attain and defend market share.

• Utilization of brokers is risky. Success in using brokersis unknown, and current relationships with brokers do notexist.

Management D

• Founder Carmen Sandiego, Phd

– Senior Research Scientist at Battelle ResearchInstitute (Columbus, Ohio)

– Experienced researcher in Battelle’s HealthcareProducts Group; focusing on drug delivery andproduct development services to the medical,life sciences and biotechnology industries

– Education: Master of Science and Doctorate

from the Ohio State University.

• Product Development & Research will be headed byCarmen Sandiego. Carmen’s core expertise is in research,and there is still considerable pre-launch work to be done inthe areas of packaging and product design.

• Hire new President with CPG marketing and operationsexperience. The president ’s immediate concern is go-to-market strategy and establishing business processes.

• Later hires would include a CMO and a COO as thecompany pursues national expansion.

Money B-

• Modest development costs to bring product to market• Cost to enter initial market: ~$900,000

• Development cost subject to R&D-related uncertainties.• Cost to enter new markets low because of outsourced

manufacturing and distribution through brokers.• Competitive product space may require large initial

promotion and advertising spend.

1. US Census Data


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Geography-Based Unit Model: Initial Investment from Analogs

Initial Investment Source

Fixed Asset Assumptions

Square Footage 6,000 1Buildout Cost/ Sq.Ft. $50 2 Annual Rent/Sq. Ft. 25 3

Initial fixed assets per unit $450,000

R&D Cost $400,000 4

Depreciation life 22 5Fixed assets as % of initial investment 49.6%Maintenance capex as % of sales 0.5% 6

Slotting Fee Per Store $50 7Kroger Grocery Stores 128 8

Other Grocery Stores 31 9Drug Stores 77 10Total Grocery Stores 236

Slotting Fee $11,800Slotting Fee as % of Initial Investment 1.3%

Broker Fee (Initial) $4,000 11Distributor Fee as % of Initial Investment 0.4%

Initial inventory $7,536Initial Inventory Days 44 12

Inventory as % of initial investment 0.8%

Initial accounts payable $3,819Initial accounts payable as % of inventory 50.7% 13Initial accounts payable as % of initial investment 0.4%

Pre-opening expenses $30,000 14Pre-opening expenses as % of initial investment 3.3%

Total initial investment per unit $907,156


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Geography-Based Unit Model: Initial Investment Assumptions

Initial Investment Assumptions(Dollars in Thousands)

Initial Investment Assumption

Initial fixed assets per unit 150.0 Initial setup costs for opening the consultancy office, Source: Pinnacle Care

Depreciation life 10.0 HPV Assumption

Fixed assets as % of initial investment 15.9%Maintenance capex as % of sales 2.0% Analogs: BriteSmile and Metropolitan Health Networks

Initial inventory 25.0 Initial Office Supplies for Medical Office Location

Inventory as % of initial investment 2.6%

Initial accounts payable 10.0 Minimal A/P - business model is 'private pay'

Initial accounts payable as % of inventory 40.0%

Initial accounts payable as % of initial investment 1.1%

Pre-opening expenses 732.0

Legal fees, permits etc. 75.0 Legal fees, permits per location, Source: Partner at Wildman & Harrold

Advertising production expenses 657.0 Allocated Cost Per Unit for Media Costs, NBC 5 TV & Media Estimates

Pre-opening expenses as % of initial investment 77.4%

IT Investment 48.8

Computers and Software 7.5 Allocated Costs Per Unit, CNA IT Systems Engineer Database and Records System (Infrastructure & IT Consulting) 41.3 Allocated Costs Per Unit, CNA IT Systems Engineer

IT Investment as % of initial investment 5.2%

Total initial investment per unit 945.8 Total Number of Units Per Region 4.0

CNA IT Systems Engineer

NBC 5 TV & Media Estimates

(http://www.nbc5.com/advertise/1674311/detail.html)

IT Investments Advertising Production Expenses

$30,000 Computer and Software per Region $1,200 - $3,000 Creation

$165,000 Database and Records System 1 hour planning meeting

$195,000 Total Investment 1 hour of copywriting time

4.0 # of Units per Region 2 hours of shooting time

$48,750 Allocated Cost Per Unit 1 hour of editing time

0.5 hours for graphics/art

Announcer Fee$50 to $15,000 30 Second Commercial

3 # of Commercials per day

7 # of Days Per Week

50 # of Weeks Commercial is Aired

$2,500 30 Second Commercial (11AM Slot is $200)

$3,000 Creation

$2,628,000 Total

4.0 # of Units per Region

$657,000 Allocated Cost Per Unit

•Total estimated startup cost per each

geographic region

G h B d U it M d l Ad ti i A ti L


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Geography-Based Unit Model: Advertising Assumptions - LaserVision Analog

Advertising expenditure for one region

Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7

Medium Spot Type Rate/ spot Source # spots # spots # spots # spots # spots # spots # spotsLocal radio spot 30 sec 75 Internet 1000 2000 3000 2000 2000 2000 2000Local TV spot 30 sec 500 Internet 200 300 400 350 350 350 350Local newspaper Half page 1000 Star Tribune (Mpls/ St. Paul) 100 200 200 150 100 100 100

Local magazine 1 page 500 Internet 30 50 50 30 30 30 30Industry and special interest publications 1 page 1000 Internet 25 50 75 50 50 50 50Local Yellow Pages (online + print) 1/2 page 1000 Qwest Dex 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Web based advertising (Search engines,Medical info sites)

Banner ads 1000 HPV Assumption 30 50 50 50 50 50 50

Rate/ unitBillboards around the metro area/ airport 15000 Internet 1 2 4 4 2 2 2Grand opening advertising expenses 5000 Analog- LCA Vision 1 2 2 0 0 0 0Information seminars 5000 Analog- LCA Vision 2 3 2 1 1 1Mail-in information 0.45 HPV Assumption 0 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000

Marketing coordinator 40000 Salary.com 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Advertisement design - radio 5000 Internet 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Advertisement design - TV 25000 Internet 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Brochure design/ printing 7500 HPV Assumption 1 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 Advertisement design - newspaper 3000 HPV Assumption 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.25 0.25 Advertisement design - magazines 5000 HPV Assumption 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.25 0.25

Medium Spot Type Rate/ spot Source

Local radio spot 30 sec 75 Internet $77,250 $159,135 $245,864 $168,826 $173,891 $179,108 $184,481Local TV spot 30 sec 500 Internet $103,000 $159,135 $218,545 $196,964 $202,873 $208,959 $215,228Local newspaper Half page 1000 Star Tribune (Mpls/ St. Paul) $103,000 $212,180 $218,545 $168,826 $115,927 $119,405 $122,987Local magazine 1 page 500 Internet $15,450 $26,523 $27,318 $16,883 $17,389 $17,911 $18,448Industry and special interest publications 1 page 1000 Internet $25,750 $53,045 $81,955 $56,275 $57,964 $59,703 $61,494Local Yellow Pages (online + print) 1/2 page 1000 Qwest Dex $1,030 $1,061 $1,093 $1,126 $1,159 $1,194 $1,230Web based advertising (Search engines, Banner ads 1000 HPV Assumption $30,900 $53,045 $54,636 $56,275 $57,964 $59,703 $61,494

Rate/ unitBillboards around the metro area/ airport 15000 Internet $15,450 $31,827 $65,564 $67,531 $34,778 $35,822 $36,896

Grand opening advertising expenses 5000 Analog- LCA Vision $5,150 $10,609 $10,927 $0 $0 $0 $0Information seminars 5000 Analog- LCA Vision $10,300 $15,914 $10,927 $5,628 $5,796 $5,970 $0Mail-in information 0.45 HPV Assumption $0 $46,350 $47,741 $49,173 $50,648 $52,167 $53,732 $55,344

Marketing coordinator 40000 Salary.com $40,000 $41,200 $42,436 $43,709 $45,020 $46,371 $47,762 $49,195

Advertisement design - radio 5000 Internet $5,000 $2,575 $2,652 $2,732 $2,814 $2,898 $2,985 $3,075 Advertisement design - TV 25000 Internet $25,000 $12,875 $13,261 $13,659 $14,069 $14,491 $14,926 $15,373Brochure design/ printing 7500 HPV Assumption $7,500 $1,931 $1,989 $2,049 $2,110 $2,174 $2,239 $2,306

Advertisement design - newspaper 3000 HPV Assumption $3,000 $1,545 $1,591 $1,639 $1,688 $1,739 $896 $922 Advertisement design - magazines 5000 HPV Assumption $5,000 $2,575 $2,652 $2,732 $2,814 $2,898 $1,493 $1,537Total advertising expenditure $85,500 $496,331 $834,796 $1,051,067 $857,497 $790,480 $811,806 $830,011

G h B d U it M d l I St t t d C h Fl


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Geography-Based Unit Model: Income Statement and Cash FlowAssumptions

Income Statement Assumptions(Dollars in Thousands)

Initial

Revenue assumptions Source Assumption Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10

Total Revenue See Presentation Pgs. 8-9 $133 $186 $219 $254 $264 $275 $286 $298 $309 $322

Total direct expense assumptions

COGS as % of revenue (excl. depreciation) 15 47.1%

Total COGS $63 $87 $103 $120 $125 $129 $135 $140 $146 $151

Operating expenses

Brokerage Expense (% of Annual Revenue) 16 1.5% $2 $3 $3 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $5 $5

Selling and Advertising (% of Annual Revenu 17 12.6% 17 23 28 32 33 35 36 37 39 41

Total SG&A $19 $26 $31 $36 $37 $39 $40 $42 $44 $45

Administrative Assistant Salary 18 $30 $31 $32 $33 $34 $35 $36 $37 $38 $39 $40

Percent annual raise 19 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

FTEs 20 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0Total Non-Executive Labor Expense $31 $32 $33 $34 $35 $36 $37 $38 $39 $40

Normalized G&A 21 8.0% $11 $15 $18 $20 $21 $22 $23 $24 $25 $26

Cash Flow Assumptions(Dollars in Thousands)

Initial

Cash flow assumptions Assumption Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10

Total Revenue $133 $186 $219 $254 $264 $275 $286 $298 $309 $322

Accounts receivable $16 $23 $27 $31 $32 $33 $35 $36 $38 $39

Collection days 22 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44

% of revenue

Unit COGS $63 $87 $103 $120 $125 $129 $135 $140 $146 $151

Inventory $12 $17 $21 $24 $25 $26 $27 $28 $29 $30

Inventory days 23 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73

% of revenue 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4%

Accounts payable $10 $14 $16 $19 $20 $21 $21 $22 $23 $24

Days payable 24 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58

% of revenue 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5%

Net working capital 19 26 31 36 37 39 40 42 44 45

Change in NWC $19 $7 $5 $5 $1 $1 $2 $2 $2 $2

Fixed assets

Beginning balance $450 $430 $411 $393 $376 $359 $344 $329 $315 $302

Additions: Maintenance capital expenditures 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2

Subtractions: Depreciation (21) (20) (19) (18) (18) (17) (16) (15) (15) (14)

Ending balance $450 $430 $411 $393 $376 $359 $344 $329 $315 $302 $290

Depreciation life 22

SG&A

Geography Based Unit Model: Income Statement & Cash Flow


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Geography-Based Unit Model: Income Statement & Cash FlowAnalysis

(in $000s)

Unit Model: Income Statement

Year

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Channel Revenue 133 186 220 255 265 276 287 298 310 322

% Growth 39.8% 18.1% 16.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%Total Direct Costs 63 87 103 120 125 129 135 140 146 151

Gross Profit 70 99 117 135 140 147 152 158 164 171

Rent and Utilities 19 26 31 36 37 39 40 42 44 45

Labor 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

Operational Expenses 50 58 64 70 72 75 77 80 83 85

Normalized SG&A 11 15 18 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Total SG&A 61 73 82 90 93 97 100 104 108 111

EBITDA 9 26 35 45 47 50 52 54 56 60

Depreciation 21 20 19 18 18 17 16 15 15 14

EBIT (12) 6 16 27 29 33 36 39 41 46

Taxes 35% 0 2 5 9 10 11 12 14 14 16

Net Income (12) 4 10 17 19 21 23 25 27 30

Memo:

Unit Profit Contribution 20 41 53 65 68 72 75 78 81 86

Unit Model: Cash Flow Statement

Year

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Net Income (12) 4 10 17 19 21 23 25 27 30

Depreciation 21 20 19 18 18 17 16 15 15 14

Capital Expenditures (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1)

Working Capital (19) (7) (5) (5) (1) (1) (2) (2) (2) (2)

Unit Level Cash Flow (11) 16 23 29 35 36 36 37 39 41

Initial Investment

Slotting Fee (12)Distributor Fee (4)

Initial Inventory (8)

Initial Accounts Payable (4)

Pre-Opening Expenses (30)

Total Initial Investment (58)

Unit Level Cash Flow (Incl. Initial Inv.) (58) (11) 16 23 29 35 36 36 37 39 41

5-Ye ar 10-Ye ar

IRR 11.9% 29.0%

Cash on Cash 1.5x 4.2x

T f U it M d l


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B k d


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• Description of Idea

• SFMachine is extending the enterprise’s IT security perimeter to encompass every PDA andsmartphone used by its mobile workers.

• Stage/Opportunity

• Series B

• Hurdle rate: 45%

• Business Description

• SFMachine develops and markets software security applications for mobile devices. Itsproducts are sold to large enterprises exposed to the risks of data loss and/or theft and/orcompromise of network security (e.g. virus infection) through the use of PDAs andSmartphones by its employees. SFMachine’s products are sold through a variety of channelsincluding direct, through Value-added Resellers (VARs) and in partnership with OriginalEquipment Manufacturers (OEMs).

The handheld device is becoming ubiquitous in business, with cumulative sales of smarthandheld devices forecast to hit 100 million units by 2007 according to IDC. As the devicesbecome more powerful, they are housing and transmitting more and more sensitive businessdata. It is thus imperative for businesses to begin treating the mobile device like the smalllaptop it has become, and secure it with the full range of available security applications,

including firewalls, authentication, intrusion-detection, encryption.

Background

A t B d R&D All ti I t t /i iti l t


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Account Based R&D Allocation – Investment /initial accounts

Initial R&D Investment Assumptions

(in $000s)

Initial R&D Investment [1] Assumptions

Mainframe Conversion Expense No initial inventory, A/P, or pre-opening expenses

Programmer Assumptions: Total

Estimated Lines of Code 70,000 Source: Discussion with Steve Thomhill, VP Impressive Solutions / industry experts [3][4]

Lines of Code per Programmer Per Day [6] 50 Source: Discussion with Steve Thomhill, VP Impressive Solutions / industry experts [3][4]

Estimated Working Days Per Year 200 Source: Discussion with Steve Thomhill, VP Impressive Solutions / industry experts [3][4]

Lines of Code Per Programmer Per Year 10,000

Desired Timeline (Years) 1

Number of Programmers Needed 7

Staff Headcount Cost [2] Total Cost

Programmers 7 44.4 310.8 Stay with company following conversion for support (G&A)

Project Manager 1 64.8 64.8 Stay with company following conversion for support (G&A)

Senior Developer - Mainframe (such as IBM DB2) 1 54.0 54.0 Stay with company following conversion for support (G&A)Senior Programmer / Analyst - CodeReview Product 1 54.0 54.0 Stay with company following conversion for support (G&A)

Total Staff 483.6

Budgeted Hardware / Software Expenses

Database Hardware and Software Support 1 100.0 100.0 Year 1 expense only [5]

Total Initial R&D Investment 583.6 Completed year 1, no sales until complete

Allocate to first 50 accounts for unit model purposes

Incremental Investment per Unit 0.0 No incremental initial expense for each new customer account

Notes:

[1] This is the sole investment required to support the new mainframe sales, it occurs in year 1 and is not recurring. Additional R&D and support costs included in forecasted expense line items

[2] Cost is estimated based on Thomhill's recollection of comparable salaries and benefits from the time of the case (1989) and includes 20% fringe

[3] Assumption predicated on the original PC product being built using Micro Focus COBOL, which was a mainframe-compatible language for PC[4] To the extent that the original program coded was in BASIC, the estimates will be understated

[5] HPV estimate - intended to cover purchase of DB2 or similar mainframe database system and associated required hardware

[6] Represents "clean" code, fully debugged and tested

Account Based Unit Model


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Account Based – Unit Model

Account based, with allocation of initial R&D expenditures

Unit Model Assumptions

Driver Input Source

[1] Average number of employees at la rge company 31,668 U.S. Census Bureau Company Summary, 1992. Large company defined as >10,000 employees

[2] Employee growth rate 1.1% U.S. Census Bureau Statistical Abstract of the U.S., 1989.

Rate based off the annual population growth rate in 1989.

[3] Average number of dependents per employee 1.4 Congressional Budget Office Staff Memorandum, Mar. 1992

[4] Total available pool of insured persons 76,003 [1] * {[3] + 1}

[5] Percentage of employees / dependents insured 92% Monthly Labor Review, Jun. 1990

[6] Total insured persons covered by licensing fee 69,923 [4] * [5]

[7] License fee per insured person $0.39 Proquest - "OS/2" System Keeps Tabs on Health Costs", Nov. 1990.

Range of $50k-100k for claims review for 194k people. Assumed midpt.

[8] Annual increase in license fee 8% Center for Studying Health System Change - "Tracking Healthcare Costs", Oct. 2006

[9] COGS as a % of Revenue 19.1% Based on Analogs - see Appendix

[10] Mainframe Conversion Expense $584 Source: Discussion with Steve Thornhill, VP of software company.

See Investment Tab for detail.

[11] Ongoing R&D as a % of Revenue 10.2% Based on Analogs - see Appendix

[12] Selling and Marketing as a % of Revenue 11.6% Based on Analogs - see Appendix

[13] Normalized G&A as a % of Revenue 20.0% Based on Analogs - see Appendix

[14] Days Receivable 85.6 Based on Analogs - see Appendix

[15] Days Payable 70.2 Based on Analogs - see Appendix

[16] Days Accrued 53.9 Based on Analogs - see Appendix

[17] Capex as % of Revenue 7.0% Based on Analogs - see Appendix

[18] Depreciation and Amortization as a % of Revenue 7.0% Based on Analogs - see Appendix

Account Based Unit Model Assumptions


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Account Based Unit Model – Assumptions

Income Statement Assumptions(Dollars in Thousands)

Initial

Revenue assumptions Assumption Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Source

Average number of employees at large company 31,668 31,668 32,016 32,369 32,725 33,085 33,448 33,816 34,188 34,564 34,945 [1]

Employee growth rate 1.1% [2]

Average number of dependents per employee 1.4 [3]

Total available pool of insured persons 76,003 76,003 76,839 77,684 78,539 79,403 80,276 81,159 82,052 82,955 83,867 [4]

Percentage of employees / dependents insured 92.0% 92.0% 92.0% 92.0% 92.0% 92.0% 92.0% 92.0% 92.0% 92.0% 92.0% [5]

Total insured persons covered by licensing fee 69,923 69,923 70,692 71,470 72,256 73,051 73,854 74,667 75,488 76,318 77,158 [6]

License fee per insured person 0.39 0.39 0.42 0.45 0.49 0.53 0.57 0.61 0.66 0.72 0.77 [7]

Annual increase in license fee 8.0% [8]

Total Revenue 27.0 29.5 32.2 35.2 38.4 42.0 45.8 50.0 54.6 59.6

Direct expense assumptions

COGS as % of revenue (excl. depreciation) 19.1% 19.1% 19.1% 19.1% 19.1% 19.1% 19.1% 19.1% 19.1% 19.1% 19.1% [9]

Total COGS 5.2 5.6 6.2 6.7 7.3 8.0 8.8 9.6 10.4 11.4

Initial R&D - allocate to first 100 accounts 584 [10]

Normalized Ongoing R&D as a % of sales 10.2%

Total Ongoing R&D Expense 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.6 6.1 [11]

Normalized Ongoing Selling & Marketing as a % of sales 11.6%

Total Selling & Marketing Expense 3.1 3.4 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.8 6.3 6.9 [12]

Normalized Ongoing G&A as a % of sales 20.0%

Total R&D Expense 5.4 5.9 6.4 7.0 7.7 8.4 9.1 10.0 10.9 11.9 [13]



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41Clinical Prof. Scott MeadowCommercializing Innovation


Unit Model: Income Statement(Dollars in Thousands)

Projected


Operational

Total Revenue 27.0 29.5 32.2 35.2 38.4 42.0 45.8 50.0 54.6 59.6 COGS 5.2 5.6 6.2 6.7 7.3 8.0 8.8 9.6 10.4 11.4

Gross profit 21.9 23.9 26.1 28.5 31.1 33.9 37.0 40.4 44.2 48.2

Operating expenses:

Initial R&D - allocate to first 50 accounts 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Ongoing R&D (normalized) 10.2% 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.6 6.1

Ongoing Selling & Marketing (normalized) 11.6% 3.1 3.4 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.8 6.3 6.9

Ongoing G&A (normalized) 20.0% 5.4 5.9 6.4 7.0 7.7 8.4 9.1 10.0 10.9 11.9

Total Operating Expenses 11.7 11.3 12.3 13.5 14.7 16.1 17.5 19.1 20.9 22.8 24.9

EBITDA (11.7) 10.6 11.5 12.6 13.7 15.0 16.4 17.9 19.5 21.3 23.3

% margin 39.1% 39.1% 39.1% 39.1% 39.1% 39.1% 39.1% 39.1% 39.1% 39.1%

Depreciation 7.0% 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.2EBIT (11.7) 8.7 9.5 10.3 11.3 12.3 13.4 14.7 16.0 17.5 19.1

% margin 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0%

Cash taxes 35.0% 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.6 6.1 6.7

Net income (11.7) 5.6 6.1 6.7 7.3 8.0 8.7 9.5 10.4 11.4 12.4

Unit profit contribution (gross profit) 21.9 23.9 26.1 28.5 31.1 33.9 37.0 40.4 44.2 48.2

% margin 80.9% 80.9% 80.9% 80.9% 80.9% 80.9% 80.9% 80.9% 80.9% 80.9%

Unit Model: Cash Flow Analysis(Dollars in Thousands)

Projected

Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10Free cash flow

Net income (11.7) 5.6 6.1 6.7 7.3 8.0 8.7 9.5 10.4 11.4 12.4

Depreciation 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.2

Capital expenditures 7.0% (1.9) (2.1) (2.3) (2.5) (2.7) (2.9) (3.2) (3.5) (3.8) (4.2)

Working capital (3.7) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.5) (0.5) (0.6) (0.6) (0.7)

Free cash flow (11.7) 2.0 5.8 6.4 6.9 7.6 8.3 9.0 9.9 10.8 11.7

5-year 10-year

IRR 32.3% 45.0%


Unit Level Free Cash Flow

Unit Level Free Cash Flow

Total SG&A

SG&A



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Specialized Asset Unit Model: New Antibiotic Cethromycin; Financing


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Specialized Asset Unit Model: New Antibiotic Cethromycin; FinancingSources are Crucial

Drug Development without Grants

Discovery Preclinical Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3

6 months 6 months Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8Infusion Schedule

Upfront payments $4,095 4,095R&D payments $33,238 13,295 9,971 6,648 3,324Milestone payments $5,460 2,730 2,730Royalties 20%

Cash infusions 0 13,295 14,066 6,648 2,730 3,324 0 2,730

Expenses

R&D 958 958 2,711 15,200 11,750 11,750 36,392 29,113 20,795Cumulative R&D 958 1,916 4,627 19,827 31,577 43,327 79,719 108,832 129,627

G&A 352 352 996 5,586 4,318 4,318 13,374 10,699 7,642

% of R&D 36.8% 36.8% 36.8% 36.8% 36.8% 36.8% 36.8% 36.8% 36.8%EBIT (1,310) (1,310) 9,588 (6,720) (9,420) (13,338) (46,442) (39,812) (25,707)

D&A 86 91 107 219 381 504 783 1,152 1,378EBITDA (1,224) (1,219) 9,695 (6,501) (9,039) (12,834) (45,659) (38,660) (24,329)

Taxes 35% 0 0 3,393 0 0 0 0 0 0NOL 0 0 (855) 0 0 0 0 0 0Change in Wkg Cap (121) 0 (221) (1,578) 436 0 (3,113) 919 1,051CapEx 131 131 371 2,079 1,607 1,607 4,978 3,982 2,845FCF (1,234) (1,350) (6,288) (21,068) (17,730) (17,171) (50,848) (43,561) (30,955)Cumulative FCF (1,234) (2,584) (8,873) (29,941) (47,671) (64,842) (115,690) (159,251) (190,206)

Exit Value 0 0 0 38,000PV @ 60% hurdle rate 9,277 0 0 38,000

Exit Value 0 0 0 0 0 150,000PV @ 60% hurdle rate 14,305 0 0 0 0 150,000

TV - Year 3 (1,234) (1,350) (6,288) 16,932TV - Year 5 (1,234) (1,350) (6,288) (21,068) (17,730) 132,829

Year 3 Year 5 (2,584) (6,288) (21,068) (17,730) 132,829

IRR 62% 64%Cash-on-cash 1.9x 2.8x

ADLS: Analog Precedent Transactions


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ADLS: Analog Precedent Transactions

Company A n t i b i o t i c

C h r o n i c

E p i s o d i c

P r e C l i n i c a l

P h a s e 1 o r

2

P h a s e I I I &

N D A

F i l e d

M a r k e t Activity target

(drug or

company) Acquirer Licensee Date

Transaction

Value ($M)

Valuation

per Drug

($M)

SGX Pharma X 1 Company Eli Lilly Aug-08 64

Solvay- US X X 3 3 Luvox Jazz Pharma Feb-07 140 140

Arrow Therapeutics X 2 1 RSV 604 Novartis Jun-05 227 227

Arrow Therapeutics X 2 1 Company Astra Zenca Feb-07 150

Theravance Inc. X X 1 Telavancin Astellas Nov-05 221 221Hypnion X 1 Company,

HY10275

Eli Lilly Mar-07 291 291

Peninsula X X 1 Company,Doripenem

J&J Jun-05 245 245

Vicuron Pharma X X 2 Company,Dalbavancin & Anidulafungin

Pfizer Jun-05 1,900 950

ICOS 1 CompanyCialis

Eli Lilly Oct-06 2,100 2,100

Basilea X X X 3 Ceftobiprole J&J Feb-05 311 311

Source: Company filings and press release, CapIQ, Thomson

Product Pipeline

Product type Products per stage

Unit Model Assumptions: New Antibiotic Cethromycin


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Unit Model Assumptions: New Antibiotic Cethromycin

Global Assumption:

Unit model assumptions for pre-approval stages in 2006 - 2008 (Year 8 - Year 10) based on selected direct analogs

Unit model assumptions for post-apporval market stages in 2009 - 2013 (Year 11 - Year 15) based on big pharma comps

Assumption Source Data Explanation[1] Market Size for Cethromycin ICIS Pfizer Inc.'s Zithromax (azithromycin), the leading

macrolide antibiotic has annual global sales of $1.5

Both Zithromax and Ketek are comparable drugs;

HPV estimate for cethromycin parallels Ketek

Ketek achieved global sales of ~$550M in 4 years

[2] Market Penetration Ramp Business Insights: Global Anti-

Infectives market Outlook

Macrolides are the leading growth drivers in anti-

bacterial sales, taking an ~30% market share

Conservative HPV estimates that cethromycin can

penetrate 9% of macrolide market by yr 5

[3] COGS Public Analog filings Median gross margin for drugs on the market is 73% This is a blend of both contract manufactured and in-

house products

[4] R&D Di Masi, Biomedical Industry

Advisory Group

~$55M in TOTAL phase III spending and $12M in

NDA application and approcal spend

$26M in Phase III spend post investment

Public Analog filings Median R&D spend post approval ~15% of revenue Pre-approval assumptions based on direct analogs,

post approval based on big pharma analogs

[5] SG&A Public Analog filings Median SG&A spend post approval ~25% of

revenue

Pre-approval assumptions based on direct analogs,

post approval based on big pharma analogs

[6] Licensing Royalties ALS 2005 Annual Report 19.0% on first $100M, 18.0% on next $100M and

17.0% thereafter

[7] Milestone Payments ALS 2005 Annual Report $10M lumpsum payment on submission of NDA,

$30.0M payment on approval of drug

[8] Depreciation Public Analog filings ~2% of revenue Applied only after cethromycin hits market

[9] Other Cash Infusions ALS 2005 Annual Report $32.0M raised in 2005 IPO, $33.6M in 2006 PP

[10] Capital Expenditures Public Analog filings ~3% of revenue Applied only after cethromycin hits market

[11] Working Capital Public Analog filings Based on median days payable and receivable of 70

and 55

Applied only after cethromycin hits market; minimal

WC prior to then[12] Liquidity Event CapIQ, Thomson, Company

Websites

Precedent acquisitions of drug licenses and

pharmaceutical development companies

Based on prior acquisitions of drugs or companies

with drugs at similar stages development

Unit Model


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Unit Model

Unit Model: Income Statement(Dollars in Thousands)

Projected

Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15

Discovery Pre-Clinical Phase I Phase II Phase III Post - Approval Market Ready

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

[1] Sales 0 0 225 496 180 320 121 0 0 0 51,250 102,500 153,750 174,250 184,500

[2] CAP Market Penetration 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 8.5% 9.0%

[3] COGS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15,375 29,725 43,050 47,048 47,970

Gross profit 0 0 225 496 180 320 121 0 0 0 35,875 72,775 110,700 127,203 136,530

[3] Gross Margin na na 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% na na na 70.0% 71.0% 72.0% 73.0% 74.0%

Operating expenses

[4] R&D 15.0% 0 0 2,772 925 1,362 25,662 3,122 26,200 6,000 6,000 7,688 15,375 23,063 26,138 27,675

[5] SG&A 25.0% 0 0 461 669 1,199 1,650 3,238 4,000 4,500 5,000 12,813 25,625 38,438 43,563 46,125

[6] Licensing Royalties 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9,738 18,938 26,600 29,623 31,365

[7] Milestone Payments 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,000 0 10,000 30,000 0 0 2,500 0 5,000

Total 0 0 3,233 1,593 2,561 27,312 8,360 30,200 20,500 41,000 30,238 59,938 90,600 99,323 110,165

EBITDA 0 0 (3,007) (1,097) (2,381) (26,992) (8,238) (30,200) (20,500) (41,000) 5,638 12,838 20,100 27,880 26,365

% margin na na (1335.3%) (221.1%) (1319.4%) (8440.8%) (6783.1%) na na na 11.0% 12.5% 13.1% 16.0% 14.3%

[8] Depreciation 2.0% 0 0 0 0 50 68 87 0 0 0 1,025 2,050 3,075 3,485 3,690

EBIT 0 0 (3,007) (1,097) (2,430) (27,060) (8,325) (30,200) (20,500) (41,000) 4,613 10,788 17,025 24,395 22,675

% margin na na (1335.3%) (221.1%) (1346.9%) (8462.2%) (6854.4%) na na na 9.0% 10.5% 11.1% 14.0% 12.3%

NOLs 0 0 (3,007) (4,105) (6,535) (33,595) (41,920) (72,120) (92,620) (133,620) (129,007) (118,220) (101,195) (76,800) (54,125)

Cash taxes 35.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net income 0 0 (3,007) (1,097) (2,430) (27,060) (8,325) (30,200) (20,500) (41,000) 4,613 10,788 17,025 24,395 22,675

Unit profit contribution 0 0 225 496 180 320 121 0 0 0 35,875 72,775 110,700 127,203 136,530

% margin na na 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% na na na 70.0% 71.0% 72.0% 73.0% 74.0%

Unit Model: Cash Flow Analysis(Dollars in Thousands)

Projected

Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15

Free cash flow Net income 0 0 (3,007) (1,097) (2,430) (27,060) (8,325) (30,200) (20,500) (41,000) 4,613 10,788 17,025 24,395 22,675

[9] Other Cash Infusions 32,000 33,600 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Depreciation 0 0 0 0 50 68 87 95 120 155 1,025 2,050 3,075 3,485 3,690

[10] Capital expenditures 3.0% 0 0 0 0 (105) (91) (88) 0 0 0 (1,538) (3,075) (4,613) (5,228) (5,535)

[11] Working capital 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (5,265) (5,476) (5,687) (2,548) (1,495)

Free cash flow 0 0 (3,007) (1,097) (2,486) (27,083) 23,674 3,495 (20,380) (40,845) (1,165) 4,286 9,801 20,104 19,335

Cumulative FCF 3,495 (16,885) (57,730) (58,895) (54,609) (44,808) (24,704) (5,369)

[12] Liquidity Event 125,000 250,000

Initial Investment (45,000)

3-year 5-year

IRR 31.9% 33.7%




Defensible Projections Contain Unit Models Composed of Analogs


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Defensible Projections Contain Unit Models Composed of Analogs

Phase 1d: Screening – Enterprise-Level Cash Need


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Phase 1d: Screening Enterprise Level Cash Need

Template

Case:Staples (A)

Criteria

FCF

Analogs

Cases:Just GrapesVision EnterprisesWind O&M

Reference Analogs


Unit Model

Assumptions


Normalized SG&A Investment


FCF and Real SG&A

Reference Analogs


Rollup

Assumptions


Comparables

IRR/CoC Table of

Returns - Common

Equity


APV, NPV

Table of Returns -

Structured Deal

Term Sheet

Negotiated Deal


Budget

Plan

Marketing

Research

Verification

Research Issues

Cases:

Sporting Goods

Pay-Ease

Brokered

Example: Direct

Editing

Marketing Options

Cases:

AYS

Life Sciences

Cash Usage with

Lag

Marketing Effects

Modified Roll-up

Total Build-up with

Effects of any JV

Prose on decision

Cases:

AYS

Pay-Ease

Gantt Chart

Case: All

Joint

Ventures

Case:

Life Sciences

MonitorInvestments

Case: All KPI


Cases: SenreQ



Case:SenreQ



The Unit Model and Roll-up


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50 Clinical Prof. Scott MeadowCommercializing Innovation

The Unit Model and Roll up

The unit model is the building block that allows us to assembleprojections that reflect our best assumptions about:

• Top line revenue

• The expense structure of the overall enterprise

• The actual CUMULATIVE cash needs, cash cycle, and the timing andprobable funding sources/investment requirements of the enterpriseover the life of the project

Step 3: Roll-up Model


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Step 3: Roll up Model

Concept Behind Roll-up Model

• Tie the Unit Model into a company-wide model, rolling up the Units at theUnit Contribution level for all Units, then subtracting the real SG&A for theyear

• Determine cash need

• Want to provide funding for two units and a great management team

• The Goal is to create more comprehensive and realistic financial statementsfor monitoring

Rollout Schedule:


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Health Payments Review (HPR) provides software solutions (Code Review®) toreduce healthcare claims cost by detecting and reporting improper or erroneousnumerical coding of physician claims.

• Large reference accounts are 50% of the Top 100 Health Plan Providers.We assume HPR software will become industry standard and will beadopted by half of the large providers. The other half may be captured bycompetitors.

• Freedonia industry report estimates 3,000 health insurers in the U.S. Weassume HPR will start to win small accounts in Year 3 and by Year 8 wetarget 1050 accounts, or 35% market share.

Roll Out Assumptions Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Total

Num of New Large Ref Acct 1 4 8 15 22 - - - - - 50 Num of New Small Acct - - 50 100 180 240 240 190 - 1,000

Total Number of Accounts 1 5 63 178 380 620 860 1,050 1,050 1,050

•Reference: Discussion with EPIC Claim Management Analyst

Roll-up – Assumptions: Actual General and Administrative


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Expenses are subtracted from the Sum of the Unit contributiongenerated from all Units

Footnotes[1] Source: salary.com

[2] Source: salary.com




[6] Salary growth at inflation rate[7] 5000 sq ft office in Boston. Rent is $20 sq ft / year

[8] Per unit sales cost is built into rollout of unit models. Use direct sale and small expense in corporate level sales and marketing.

[9] Initial R&D cost is estimated in Investment Breakdown in Appendix. Upgrade R&D occurs in Year 3 and 7 based on assumed product plan.

[10] Ongoing R&D cost is based on analog analysis

[11] Total revenue calculated in rollout schedule

[12] Total unit profit contribution calculated in rollout schedule. Normalized G&A and R&D expenses from unit level are not considered in this calculation.

Consolidated Roll-up: Assumptions(Dollars in Thousands) Projected


[1] CEO/President 150 150 155 159 164 169 174 179 184 190 196

[2] CTO 125 125 129 133 137 141 145 149 154 158 163

[3] CFO 125 - 125 129 133 137 141 145 149 154 158

[4] COO 125 - 125 129 133 137 141 145 149 154 158

[5] VP Business Development 125 125 129 133 137 141 145 149 154 158 163

[6] Percent annual raise 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

[7] HQ + R&D Ctr Rent and Other 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

[8] Corp Selling & Marketing 1% 3 15 58 141 277 375 483 583 612 650

[9] Initial & Upgrade R&D 1251 626 626

[10] Ongoing R&D 9.9% 30 148 572 1,394 2,739 3,715 4,776 5,774 6,054 6,437

[11] Total Revenue 300 1,500 5,775 14,085 27,675 37,530 48,252 58,335 61,161 65,027

[12] Unit Profit Contribution 145 725 2,793 6,811 13,382 18,148 23,332 28,208 29,574 31,444

Hypothetical Example Rollout of Unit Revenue


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Strategies:

• Change rollout numbers from management’s

business plan based on analogs, if necessary.(i.e. revise management’s estimates)

• Use rollout to observe valuation change due todelays, missed milestones, sales forceunderperformance.

Roll-out Schedule - Retail StoresY0 Y1 Q1 Y1 Q2 Y1 Q3 Y1 Q4 Y2 Q1 Y2 Q2 Y2 Q3 Y2 Q4 Y3 Q1 Y3 Q2 Y3 Q3 Y3 Q4

Unit Revenue 168 175 182 189 197 204 213 221 230 239 249 259New Units

Opened

Y1 Q1 1 168 175 182 189 197 204 213 221 230 239 249 259

Y1 Q2 3 504 524 545 567 590 613 638 663 690 717 746

Y1 Q3 2 336 349 363 378 393 409 425 442 460 478

Y1 Q4 1 168 175 182 189 197 204 213 221 230

Y2 Q1 2 336 349 363 378 393 409 425 442

Y2 Q2 4 672 699 727 756 786 818 850

Y2 Q3 4 672 699 727 756 786 818

Y2 Q4 3 504 524 545 567 590

Y3 Q1 2 336 349 363 378

Y3 Q2 5 840 874 909

Y3 Q3 6 1,008 1,048

Y3 Q4 2 336

Total Revenue 35 168 679 1,042 1,252 1,638 2,375 3,142 3,772 4,259 5,269 6,488 7,083

• Unit Revenue is the revenue line from your unitmodel. Its time scale is in reference to when theunit was opened.

• New Units Opened is the company’s projectedexpansion schedule (rollout schedule)

• Total Revenue is the resulting consolidatedrevenue given the above unit performance andcompany expansion schedule

$504 represents the total revenue contributed in Y1Q2 by the 3 unitsopened in Y1Q2(i.e. 2 units in their 1st qtr of operation contribute 3*$168 of revenue)

Roll-up Model: Income Statement


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(in $ millions) Year

1 2 3 4 5

Revenue

Homes 4,734 11,335 21,494 38,584 64,605

Corporate 93 315 833 2,026 4,219

Tota l Revenue $4,827 $11,650 $22,327 $40,610 $68,824COGS

Direct Labor 1,365 3,295 6,319 11,502 19,507

Direct Materials 1,551 3,745 7,182 13,074 22,173

Total COGS 2,916 7,040 13,501 24,576 41,680

Gross Profit 1,911 4,610 8,826 16,034 27,144

Operating Expenses

Store Manager 244 576 1,081 1,926 3,202

In-Store Consultants 398 961 1,843 3,355 5,690

Rent Expense 150 350 650 1,150 1,900

Tota l Operating Expenses 792 1,887 3,574 6,431 10,792

Corporate Expenses

National Headquarter Rent 100 100 100 100 100

President 200 206 212 219 225

COO 175 180 186 191 197

VPs 125 500 515 530 546

Corporate Salespeople 0 300 450 675 900

Referrals & Other 97 233 447 812 1,376

National Marketing & Ads 48 116 223 406 688

Tota l Corpora te Ex pe nse s 745 1,635 2,133 2,933 4,032

EBITDA 374 1,088 3,119 6,670 12,320

Depreciation 67 165 320 582 988

Amortization 141 329 611 1,081 1,786

EBIT 166 594 2,188 5,007 9,546

HPV Management Fee 150 150 150 150 150

Interest Expense (210) (85) 178 654 1,397

Owner's Consult ing Cont ract 300 700 1,000 1,600 2,500

Taxable Income (74) (171) 860 2,603 5,499

Taxes (29) (69) 344 1,041 2,199

Net Income (44) (104) 516 1,562 3,299

Roll-up Model: Balance Sheet


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Year

Open 1 2 3 4 5

Assets

Cash 5,259 2,115 0 0 0 Accounts Receivable 483 1,165 2,233 4,061 6,882

Inventory 65 156 300 546 926

Fixed Assets 678 1,662 3,212 5,848 9,925

Goodwill 2,115 4,935 9,166 16,217 26,793

Total Assets 5,259 5,456 7,918 14,911 26,672 44,526

Liabilities

Revolver 0 2,229 8,173 17,463 30,612

Accounts Payable 240 579 1,110 2,020 3,426

Total Liabilities 0 240 2,808 9,283 19,483 34,038Shareholders' Equity

HPV Pref 5,309 5,734 6,192 6,688 7,223 7,801

Common Equity 250 250 250 250 250 250

Retained Earnings (300) (769) (1,331) (1,310) (284) 2,437

Total Shareholders' Equity 5,259 5,215 5,111 5,628 7,189 10,488

Total Liabilities and SE 5,259 5,455 7,919 14,911 26,672 44,526

Roll-up Model: Cash Flow Analysis


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Year

1 2 3 4 5

Operations

Net Income (44) (104) 516 1,562 3,299

D&A 208 494 931 1,663 2,774

AR (483) (682) (1,068) (1,828) (2,821)

Inventory (65) (91) (144) (246) (380)

AP 240 339 531 910 1,406

Cash from Operations (144) (44) 766 2,061 4,278

Investments

Maintenance Capital Expenditures (145) (349) (670) (1,218) (2,065)

Expansionary Capital Expenditures (3,000) (4,000) (6,000) (10,000) (15,000)

Cash from Investments (3,145) (4,349) (6,670) (11,218) (17,065)

Financing

Issue (Redemption) of Pref Shares 0 0 0 0 0

Issue (Redemption) of Common Shares 0 0 0 0 0

Dividends 0 0 0 0 0

Cash from Financing 0 0 0 0 0

Change in Cash for Period (3,289) (4,393) (5,904) (9,157) (12,787)

Net Cash - Beginning of Period 5,259 1,970 (2,423) (8,327) (17,484)

Net Cash - End of Period 1,970 (2,423) (8,327) (17,484) (30,271) Peak cash needfor given rollout

scenario

If we had a $100MM fund, could we afford to fund this investment?What about a $200MM fund?

Conclusion


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• Very time consuming work, but necessary

• Iterative process of trial and error that requires many adjustments throughout theprocess

• From here you are now in a position to do the financial valuations and evaluatethe deal based on SUCCESS methodology

Discipline and Detail help Us Avoid Life

s Little Hazards


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p p


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Thank you.

Clinical Professor Scott F. MeadowCommercializing Innovation: Tools to Research and AnalyzePrivate Enterprises

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