Facebook Analytics for Obsessive Compulsivesby @mediaczar

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30 minutes of data wankery

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Social Media has changed since the early days

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Search volume on key Social Media

blogs myspace facebook twitter

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European Web Usage

Data: comScore EMEA August 2011

85 billion user

minutes/month

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Marketers instinctively misunderstand Facebook

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How people use Facebook

Login to Facebook

View Newsfeed

Ignore, Like or

Comment

Leave Facebook

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Like PageSee Brand

Posts in Newsfeed

Ignore, Like or

Comment

Leave Facebook

How people use Client X’s Facebook Page

36%

Like source

99%

First exposure

0.6%

Responders

0.6% attributed to “on Page” Likes

Estimate Comments + Likes

DAU

Week DayDay PartAudience Activity Competitor Activity

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Response Windows

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 480%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

91.4%

%age responses cumulative

Elapsed Hours

80% of responses within 3 hours.

90% within 6 hours

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Like PageSee Brand

Posts in Newsfeed

Ignore, Like or

Comment

Leave Facebook

How people use Client X’s Facebook Page

36%

Like source

99%

First exposure

0.6%

Responders

0.6% attributed to “on Page” Likes

Estimate Comments + Likes

DAU

Week DayDay PartAudience Activity Competitor Activity

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How people use Client X’s Facebook Page

Like PageSee Brand

Post in Newsfeed

Ignore, Like or

Comment

See/Don’t See Next

Post

11%

Ongoing Exposure

36%

Like source

99%

First exposure

0.6%

Responders

0.6% attributed to “on Page” Likes

Estimate Comments + Likes

DAU

DAU

Total Fans

Newsfeed Algo

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“We’re going to make Facebook the hub of all our activity”

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All Fans 100%470K

MAU53%250K

Most people don’t visit the Page.

DAU11%52K

Daily Page Visits (Unique)0.3%1.4K

What are the implications for Page Tabs?

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How fan growth Affects Daily Active Users (DAU)

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

DA

U

Fan

s

12.

50

12.

60

12.

70

12.

80

12.

90

13.

00

13.

10

13.

20

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

11.00

11.50

R² = 0.598784125594177

ln(Fans)

ln(D

AU

)

1% increase in fans leads to 1.65% increase in DAU (0.35% increase in MAU)

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Unsubscribes grow strongly inline with fan growth

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug0

50

100

150

200

250

288,631

467,512

Daily Unlikes Fans

12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 13 13.1 13.22.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

f(x) = 2.21971581826927 x − 24.0155461780528R² = 0.503163684066917

ln(fans)

ln(u

nsub

scrib

es)

1% increase in fans leads to 2.22% increase in Unsubscribes

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What happens if we post more often?

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 480%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

91.4%

%age responses cumulative

Elapsed Hours

80% of responses within 3 hours.

90% within 6 hours

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Impressions grow strongly inline with post frequency

1 14 27 40 53 66 79 92 105

118

131

144

157

170

183

196

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4

17

21

17

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7-day rolling imps 7-day rolling posts

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.511

11.5

12

12.5

13

13.5

14

14.5

15

15.5

f(x) = 1.10798048236944 x + 11.6301274541707R² = 0.943832409201569

ln(7-day rolling posts)

ln(7

-day

rol

ling

imps

)

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Reach grows inline with post frequency

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6-2.8

-2.6

-2.4

-2.2

-2

-1.8

-1.6

-1.4

f(x) = 0.400548543900821 x − 2.34612898150891R² = 0.530097676971872

ln(posts)

ln(r

each

)

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..and so do unsubscribes

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.55

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

f(x) = 0.459424051640055 x + 5.52388776980412R² = 0.57793388057226

ln(7-day rolling posts)

ln(7

-day

rol

ling

unsu

bs)

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A Facebook Page isn’t a community

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Facebook Group 1

21Facebook

Is your Facebook Page really a “Community”?

Community Hierarchy

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“We just want to LISTEN”

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Brand Page

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Retailer Page

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Waitrose’s Page, early November 2011

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What happened?

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What happened?

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Facebook isn’t your microsite

Facebook isn’t your forum

Facebook is your email list

Focus on News Feed optimisation

BTW (You’ll never have enough fans)

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@mediaczar

blog.magicbeanlab.com