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1 Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability Gary Cokins, CPIM Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC Cary, North Carolina USA www.garycokins.com 919 720 2718 [email protected] Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC My-CPE https://my-cpe.com/
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  • 1

    Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability

    Gary Cokins, CPIMAnalytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    Cary, North Carolina USA

    www.garycokins.com

    919 720 2718

    [email protected]

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    My-CPE

    https://my-cpe.com/

    http://www.garycokins.com/mailto:[email protected]://www.garycokins.com/https://my-cpe.com/

  • 2

    About Gary CokinsFounder, Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    B.S. Industrial Engineering & Operations Research;

    Cornell University, 1971

    M.B.A. Finance & Accounting; Northwestern University,

    Kellogg Graduate School of Management, 1974

    Previous Associations:

    - FMC Corporation

    - Consultant with: Deloitte,

    KPMG,

    Electronic Data Systems [EDS, now HP]

    - SAS (16 years)Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 3

    Managers who have previously struggled at

    promoting the measurement and reporting product,

    channel and customer profitability into their

    decision support systems.

    Who will benefit from this presentation?

    Managers who intend to “champion” profitability

    analysis techniques and need a compelling call to

    action.

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 4

    Drowning in data but starving for information.

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 5

    Key questions

    What? So what? Then what?

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 6

    AGENDA

    ▪ Eras and Issues with managerial accounting

    ▪ Basics on activity-based costing (ABC)

    ▪ Implementing with ABC rapid prototyping

    ▪ Calculating channel and customer profitability

    ▪ Applying analytics

    ▪ Historical versus predictive costing

    ▪ Barriers slowing the adoption rate

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 7

    Six Eras of Managerial Accounting

    20,000 BC 1492 1910 1930 1980 2019

    Stone

    Age

    Medieval

    Industrial

    Regulatory

    Compliance

    Channel &

    Customer

    Predictive

    Accounting &

    Analytics

    Era

    Of

    Costing

    Maturity

    A shift of

    emphasis from

    a historical to a

    predictive view

    of strategy and

    operations

    Precious

    metal and

    paper money

    piles,

    ultimately

    leading to

    double-entry

    bookkeeping

    (Luca Pacioli,

    1494).

    Alexander

    Hamilton

    Church;

    standard cost

    accounting (to

    reflect

    Frederick

    Winslow

    Taylor’s

    manufacturing

    scientific

    methods, 1910)

    The USA’s

    Great

    Depression

    resulted in

    regulatory

    reforms to

    protect

    investors

    (1930s).

    “Causal” cost

    tracing of

    increasingly

    diverse types

    of products,

    services,

    channels and

    customers

    Rocks and

    stone piles.

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    2020

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 8

    Standard Costing, Project Accounting, Job Order Costing,

    Economic Value Added TM, Balanced Scorecard, Activity Based

    Costing, Intellectual Capital, Performance Pyramid, Business

    Excellence Model, Customer Profitability, Strategic

    Management Accounting, Strategic Cost Management, Supply

    Chain Costing, Cash Flow Return on Investment, Business

    Models, Target Costing, Kaizen Costing, Lean Accounting, Life

    Cycle Costing, Value Added Analysis, Process Costing, Time-

    based Activity Based Costing, Value engineering, Stock

    Options, Micro Profit Centres, Quality Costing, Non-value

    Added Cost, Human capital, Resource Consumption

    Accounting, Structural Capital, Relationship Capital, Brand

    Value, Total Cost of Ownership, Throughput Accounting, Triple

    Bottom Line, Beyond Budgeting, Risk-adjusted Return on

    Capital at Risk ……

    Here is Part of the Problem.Which managerial accounting system should we

    use?

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 9

    Standard Costing, Project Accounting, Job Order Costing, Economic

    Value Added TM, Balanced Scorecard, Activity Based Costing,

    Intellectual Capital, Performance Pyramid, Business Excellence Model,

    Customer Profitability, Strategic Management Accounting, Strategic

    Cost Management, Supply Chain Costing, Cash Flow Return on

    Investment, Business Models, Target Costing, Kaizen Costing, Lean

    Accounting, Life Cycle Costing, Value Added Analysis, Process

    Costing, Time-based Activity Based Costing, Value engineering, Stock

    Options, Micro Profit Centres, Quality Costing, Non-value Added Cost,

    Human capital, Resource Consumption Accounting, Structural Capital,

    Relationship Capital, Brand Value, Total Cost of Ownership,

    Throughput Accounting, Triple Bottom Line, Beyond Budgeting, Risk-

    adjusted Return on Capital at Risk ……

    Here is Part of the Problem.Which managerial accounting system should

    we use?

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 10

    Direct and Absorption Costing

    Ideally, all costs should be directly charged, but as variety, complexity, and

    technology increases, more costs are indirect and shared.

    Activities

    Resources

    Final

    Cost

    Objects

    Project

    accounting ABC/M ALLOCATIONS

    Labor

    ReportingEstimates

    OUTPUTS, PROCESSES, PRODUCTS, SERVICE LINES, MARKETS, CHANNELS, ORDERS, CUSTOMERS

    1st Preference

    2nd Preference

    3rd Preference

    Last Resort

    Cost-Driver Table

    Work

    Order

    Standard

    Routing,

    Bill of

    material

    Standard

    costing

    Activity

    Driver

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 11Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    Gary Cokins’ part time role as the IMA Executive in Residence

    IMA Strategic

    Finance magazine;

    December 2013,

    January 2014;

    Trend #1

    “Measuring and

    Managing Customer

    Profitability”; IMA

    Strategic Finance;

    February 2015.

    http://www.imanet.org/

    docs/default-

    source/sf/2015_02/02

    _2015_cokins.pdf?sfvr

    sn=2

    http://www.garycokins.com/http://www.imanet.org/docs/default-source/sf/2015_02/02_2015_cokins.pdf?sfvrsn=2

  • 12

    AGENDA

    ▪ Eras and Issues with managerial accounting

    ▪ Basics on activity-based costing (ABC)

    ▪ Implementing with ABC rapid prototyping

    ▪ Calculating channel and customer profitability

    ▪ Applying analytics

    ▪ Historical versus predictive costing

    ▪ Barriers slowing the adoption rate

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 13

    A simple explanation of ABC …that you can explain to yourspouse (or boss) tonight.

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 14

    Cost

    Components

    Stages in the Evolution of Businesses

    IntegratedOld-fashioned Hierarchical

    Changes in Cost Structure

    100%

    Overhead(indirect expenses)

    Direct (recurring) Labor

    Material

    1950 2000

    Direct

    0%

    Broadly averaged cost allocation was acceptable.

    Cost errors are large and misleading.

    The Need for Tracing, not Allocating, Costs

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 15

    Insurance Claims Processing Department

    The General Ledger View is Structurally Deficient for Decision Analysis.

    Salaries

    Equipment

    Travel expense

    Supplies

    Use andoccupancy

    Total

    $621,400

    161,200

    58,000

    43,900

    30,000

    $914,500

    $600,000

    150,000

    60,000

    40,000

    30,000

    $880,000

    $(21,400)

    (11,200)

    2,000

    (3,900)

    ––

    $(34,500)

    PlanActualFavorable/

    (unfavorable)

    Chart-of-Accounts View

    When managers get this kind of report, they are

    either happy or sad, but they are rarely any smarter!

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 16

    #of

    Activity-Based View

    To: ABC Data Base

    Key/scan claims

    Analyze claims

    Suspend claims

    Receive provider inquiries

    Resolve member problems

    Process batches

    Determine eligibility

    Make copies

    Write correspondence

    Attend training

    Total

    $ 31,500

    121,000

    32,500

    101,500

    83,400

    45,000

    119,000

    145,500

    77,100

    158,000

    $914,500

    Claims Processing Dept

    Salaries

    Equipment

    Travel expense

    Supplies

    Use andoccupancy

    Total

    $621,400

    161,200

    58,000

    43,900

    30,000

    $914,500

    $600,000

    150,000

    60,000

    40,000

    30,000

    $880,000

    $(21,400)

    (11,200)

    2,000

    (3,900)

    ––

    $(34,500)

    PlanActualFavorable/

    (unfavorable)

    Claims Processing Department

    Chart-of-Accounts View

    From: General LedgerActivity

    cost

    drivers

    #of#of#of#of#of#of#of#of

    #of

    $914,500

    Each Activity Has Its Own Cost Driver

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 17

    Multiple-Stage Cost Flowing

    ExpandedABC

    Resources

    Resources

    Activities

    Objects

    Objects

    Activities

    SimpleABC

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 18

    ABC/M Cost Assignment Network

    Salary, FringeBenefits

    DirectMaterial

    Phone,Travel

    SuppliesDepreciation

    Rent, Interest,

    Tax

    Customers

    Business

    Sustaining

    Products,

    Services

    Resources(general ledger view)

    Work Activities(verb-noun)

    FinalCost

    ObjectsSuppliers

    (1)

    Dem

    and

    s O

    n W

    ork C

    ost

    s (2

    )

    “C

    ost

    s M

    easu

    re t

    he

    Eff

    ects

    Support

    Activities

    Equipment

    Activities

    PeopleActivities

    “cost-to-serve”paths

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 19

    ABC/M Cost Assignment Network

    Salary, FringeBenefits

    DirectMaterial

    Phone,Travel

    SuppliesDepreciation

    Rent, Interest,

    Tax

    Customers

    Business

    Sustaining

    Products,

    Services

    Resources(general ledger view)

    Work Activities(verb-noun)

    FinalCost

    ObjectsSuppliers

    (1)

    Dem

    and

    s O

    n W

    ork C

    ost

    s (2

    )

    “C

    ost

    s M

    easu

    re t

    he

    Eff

    ects

    Support

    Activities

    Equipment

    Activities

    PeopleActivities

    “cost-to-serve”paths

    Dire

    ct c

    osts

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 20

    Salary, Fringe

    Benefits

    Direct

    Material

    Phone,

    Travel

    Supplies

    DepreciationRent,

    Interest, Tax

    Business

    Sustaining

    Products

    Resources

    Activities

    Final Cost Objects

    (1)

    Dem

    and

    s O

    n W

    ork C

    ost

    s (2

    )

    “Co

    sts

    Mea

    sure

    th

    e E

    ffec

    ts”

    Support

    Activities

    Equipment

    Activities

    Suppliers

    Balance SheetExpenditures

    Fixed Assets Inventory Receivables

    Cost of Capital

    Imputed

    cost of

    capital

    ABC/M Cost Assignment Network (imputed CoC)

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 21

    ABC

    Traditional Costing

    Under-Costing(Hidden Loss)

    Over-Costing(Hidden Profit)

    0%

    1,000%+

    - 50–200%

    0%

    % error

    distortion

    per unit

    Rank-ordered Products/Services

    • Simple Products and Services

    • made through generic processes

    • High Volume of Production

    • Complex Products and Services

    • made through specific processes

    • Low Volume of Production

    Standard Costing Over- and Under-Costs Products

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    Source: Alireza Sarraf; permission to use granted

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 22

    $ 30 sales

    - 28 expenses

    = $ 2 profit

    $ 2 profit

    Unrealized profit revealed by ABC

    Net Revenues

    MinusABC costs =

    profit

    Organizational shock from the truth

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 23

    Sales $ 31.0

    - Expenses 31.5

    = prof/(loss) $ (0.5)

    loss = $ (0.5)

    More important than a better costing method are its results.

    Net Revenues

    MinusABC costs =

    profit

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 24

    Take Actions to Raise the “whale curve”

    Source: Alireza Sarraf; permission to use granted

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 25

    ActivityCosts

    each activity’s driver quantity

    Activity driver per unit-level cost consumption rate

    x

    (e.g., # of orders)

    Price/Fee(Revenue)

    ABC provides insight for the product’s or service’s cost drivers and driver quantities.

    WorkActivities

    Activity Costs “pile up” into outputs.

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 26

    Most CFOs take the left-side path!

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 27

    Polling Question #1

  • 28

    AGENDA

    ▪ Eras and Issues with managerial accounting

    ▪ Basics on activity-based costing (ABC)

    ▪ Implementing with ABC rapid prototyping

    ▪ Calculating channel and customer profitability

    ▪ Applying analytics

    ▪ Historical versus predictive costing

    ▪ Barriers slowing the adoption rate

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 29

    Rapid Prototyping withIterative Remodeling (crawl, walk, run, fly)

    Each iteration enhances the use of a ABC system.

    ABC Models

    3

    ABC System

    (repeatable, reliable, relevant)

    #0

    #1

    #2

    #3

    210

    Copyright 2018 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    Make your mistakes early and often, not later

    when the system is too hard to change.

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 30

    Balancing Levels of Accuracy with Effort

    Accuracyof

    Final CostObjects

    100%

    0%

    World Class

    ABC System Design

    Little

    Level of Data Collection Effort

    GreatModest

    A

    B

    Copyright 2018 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    Is the higher climb worth the better view?

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 31

    Final Cost Object ProfilingA key to initial ABC/M Rapid Prototyping is to identify major sources of

    diversity.

    Influencers of

    Diversity of Activity

    Cost Consumption

    Geography

    Order Habits

    Order Frequency

    Level of Demand

    Technical Sophistication

    Etc.

    Etc.

    Customer Profile Candidates

    Dominant

    Influences

    (Check 2 or 3)

    Polar Extremes

    Near

    Standard

    Infrequent

    Light

    Advanced

    (E-commerce)

    vs. Far

    vs.

    vs.

    vs.

    vs.

    vs.

    vs.

    Specials

    Frequent

    Invasive

    Archaic

    (Manual)

    Copyright 2018 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 32

    Benefits from ABC/M Rapid Prototyping

    - Accelerated learning

    - Solving the thorny “leveling” problem

    - Preventing “over-engineering” ABM model size

    - Peer group: Pre-determining uses for the information

    - Replacing misconceptions with reality.

    - Getting ROI from earlier insights and decisions.

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 33

    AGENDA

    ▪ Eras and Issues with managerial accounting

    ▪ Basics on activity-based costing (ABC)

    ▪ Implementing with ABC rapid prototyping

    ▪ Calculating channel and customer profitability

    ▪ Applying analytics

    ▪ Historical versus predictive costing

    ▪ Barriers slowing the adoption rate

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 34

    What has Caused Interest in ABPM?

    The shift from being product-centric to customer centric.

    The emphasis will be more on economics – measuring

    customer profitability and customer lifetime value (for

    B2C).

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 35

    Value of Company = f(Value from Customers)

    The only value a company will ever create is the valuethat comes from its customers – the current ones and the

    new ones acquired in the future.

    To remain competitive, one must determine how to keep customers longer, grow them into bigger customers, make

    them more profitable, serve them more efficiently, and acquire relatively more profitable customers.

    Source: Don Peppers and Martha Rogers, Peppers & Rogers Group (edited)

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 36

    Products and standard service-lines are not the only

    thing for which accountants should compute costs.

    What about costs that have nothing to do with making

    products and delivering standard service-lines?

    The problem with traditional accounting’s product gross

    profit margin reporting is you don’t see the bottom half of

    the picture.

    So what about the Other Below-the-line “Calculated” Costs?

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 37

    INCOME STATEMENT

    Sales $ 100

    - Product direct costs -20

    - Overhead cost -10

    ----------------------------------------------

    = Gross profit margin $ 70

    What about Costs Below Product Costs ?

    - selling costs -20

    - distribution costs -10

    - marketing costs -20

    - administrative costs -10

    ----------------------------------------------

    = Total Profit $ 10

    The accountants

    report these by

    each product (but

    they are wrong

    without ABC).

    ?We have no visibility

    of these costs by

    customer (except in

    total) !

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 38

    Indirect expenses

    Distribution, Sales & Marketing

    Sales, general, and administration (S,G&A)

    Customer+

    Direct material,

    Direct labor &

    Equipment

    Costs from Sales & Marketing are not Products

    Channel+

    Product

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 39

    # 1- Customer Retention – It is relatively much more

    expensive to acquire a new customer than to retain

    an existing one.

    # 2 – Sources of Competitive Advantage – As products

    and standard service-lines become commodity-like,

    then the shift is towards service-differentiation.

    Why Do Customer-related Costs Matter?The Perfect Storm

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 40

    # 4 - Power Shift – The Internet is shifting power …

    irreversibly … from sellers to buyers.

    # 3 - CRM’s “One-to-One” Marketing – Pepper &

    Rodgers have hailed technology as the enabler to (1)

    identify customer segments, and (2) tailor marketing

    offers.

    Why Do Customer-related Costs Matter?The Perfect Storm

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 41

    Polling Question #2

  • 42Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 43

    WORK

    ACTIVITIES

    (examples)

    SUPPLIER

    SUSTAINING

    UNIT &

    BATCH

    LEVEL

    BRAND

    SUSTAINING

    PRODUCT/SERVICE

    LINE SUSTAINING

    UNIT &

    BATCH

    LEVEL

    CUSTOMER

    SUSTAINING

    UNIT &

    BATCH

    LEVEL

    SENIOR

    MGT

    UNUSED

    CAPACITYR&D

    OSHADOT

    RESOURCES

    FINAL

    COST OBJECTS

    # Advertisements

    SUPPLIERS

    SUPPLIER

    -

    RELATED

    PRODUCTS/SKUs

    SALARY &

    FRINGE BENEFITS

    DIRECT

    MATERIAL

    CAPITAL

    (equipment-related)

    NON-WAGE RELATED

    (e.g., operating supplies)

    # Machine

    hours

    # Material

    moves

    # Set-ups

    # Shows

    #

    Advertisements

    RELATIONSHIP

    MANAGEMENT

    PURCHASES,

    RECEIPTS

    •BRAND/PRODUCT-

    RELATEDWORK,

    •BRAND/PRODUCT-

    RELATED ADVERTISING

    & MERCHANDISING,

    •FACILITIES COST

    MACHINES

    MAKE PRODUCT,

    MOVE PRODUCT,

    SET-UPS

    TRADE SHOWS,

    IMAGE ADVERTISING

    SALES CALLS,

    ORDER HANDLING,

    FREIGHT

    # POs

    #

    Receipts

    # Sales

    calls

    # orders

    # shipments

    CUSTOMERS

    Gvt

    RegulatorsARBITRARY

    (for full

    absorption)

    ARBITRARY

    (for full

    absorption)

    BUSINESS

    SUSTAINING

    RELATED

    PRODUCT & SERVICE LINE-

    RELATEDCUSTOMER-

    RELATED

    IRS

    ABC/M Profit Contribution Margin Layering

    Etc.

    #

    Pounds

    #

    Gallons

    # Meters

    Facility costs

    Pro

    duct

    -spec

    ific

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 44

    CUSTOMER: XYZ CORPORATION (CUSTOMER #1270)

    Sales $$$ Margin $ Margin

    (Sales - Costs) % of Sales

    Product-Related

    Supplier-Related costs (TCO) $ xxx $ xxx 98%

    Direct Material xxx xxx 50%

    Brand Sustaining xxx xxx 48%

    Product Sustaining xxx xxx 46%

    Unit, Batch* xxx xxx 30%

    Distribution-Related

    Outbound Freight Type* xxx xxx 28%

    Order Type* xxx xxx 26%

    Channel Type* xxx xxx 24%

    Customer-Related

    Customer-Sustaining xxx xxx 22%

    Unit-Batch* xxx xxx 10%

    Business Sustaining xxx xxx 8%

    Operating Profit xxx 8%

    * Activity Cost Driver Assignments use measurable quantity volume of Activity Output(Other ActvityAssignments traced based on informed (subjective) %s)

    Product-

    related

    costs

    Channel &

    Customer-

    related

    costs

    ABC Customer Profit & Loss Statement

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 45

    High

    Low

    Low High

    Cost-to-Serve

    Product MixGross Profit

    Margin

    Very

    Profitable

    Very

    unprofitable

    Types of Customers

    Migrating Customers to Higher Profitability

    Copyright 2017 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 46

    High

    Low

    Low High

    Cost-to-Serve

    Product MixGross Profit

    Margin

    Very

    Profitable

    Very

    unprofitable

    Types of Customers

    KPI Target

    KPI Linkage of Customer Profits to the Scorecard

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 47

    Customer Sales Volume Versus Profits

    Sales Volume (logarithmic scale)

    Profitability

    $ 0

    $ (unprofitable)

    $ profitable

    Customers tend to cluster. Medium sales volume customers can

    be much more profitable than large sales volume customers!

    These losers

    drag down

    profits

    $ small $ large

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 48

    A “whale curve” of Customer Profitability

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 49

    Polling Question #3

  • 50

    GARY COKINS

    Principal, Global

    Business Advisory

    Services, SAS

    THOMAS P.

    KLAMMER

    Professor of

    Accounting

    (retired)

    University of North

    Texas

    TERRANCE L.

    POHLEN

    Associate

    Professor of

    Logistics

    University of North

    Texas

    http://cscmp.org/st

    ore/handbook-

    supply-chain-

    costing

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://cscmp.org/store/handbook-supply-chain-costinghttp://www.garycokins.com/

  • 51

    The spending budget for sales and marketing is critical …

    but it should be treated as a preciously scarce resource to

    be aimed at generating the highest long-term profits.

    This means answering questions like:

    Which type of customer is attractive to newly acquire,

    retain, grow, or win back? And which types are not?

    How much should we optimally spend attracting, retaining,

    growing, or recovering each customer micro-segment?

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    The CFO must now help Sales and

    Marketing … to better target customers.

    A Shift in the CFO’s Emphasis

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 52

    … over-spending uneccessarily on loyal

    customers for what is needed to retain them.

    … under-spending on marginally loyal

    customers and risk their defection to a

    competitor.

    Therefore, what is the optimum spending

    level for differentiated services to different

    micro-segments of customers?

    Optimizing Customer Value ---“Smart” Sales Growth

    You can destroy shareholder wealth

    creation by …

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 53

    Other factor variables to evaluate sales prospects and

    existing customers should include:

    - retention (loyalty)

    - attrition (tenure)

    - churn propensity

    - RFM ( recency, frequency, and monetary spend)

    - their lifecycle stage

    - their referrals potential

    - their familial relationships

    - their “social networks”

    - their tastes and preferences

    - socio-demographic

    - psychological

    - others ??

    A financial view is not the only consideration.

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 54

    Actions to Make Customers More Profitable

    - Manage each customer’s costs-to-serve to a lower level.

    - Improve and streamline customer facing processes, including adding self-

    service models where possible

    - Establish a surcharge for or re-price expensive cost-to-serve activities.

    - Reduce services; focus first on labor intensive ones that add the least value

    yet cost the most.

    - Introduce new products and service lines.

    - Abandon old products or service-lines.

    - Raise prices.

    - Improve and streamline internal business processes.

    - Offer the customer profit-positive service level options with varying prices.

    - Increase investments on activities that a customer shows a preference for.

    - Up-sell or cross-sell the customer’s purchase mix toward richer, higher-

    margin products and service lines.

    - Discount prices to gain more business with low cost-to-serve customers.

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 55

    Improve the value mix of customers

    Source: Managing Customer Relationships by Martha Rogers

    LMC MVC’s

    Growth by increasing

    value of customers

    Num

    be

    r o

    f cu

    sto

    me

    rs

    Customer actual value

    2

    1

    3

    Growth by increasing

    number of customers

    Notes

    1. Only focusing on

    the number of

    customers

    acquired results in

    a degraded mix as

    low-value

    customers by

    definition are

    easier to acquire

    2. A customer centric

    strategy will not

    acquire any

    customer; only

    higher-value ones

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 56

    Who is more important to pursue with the scarce

    resources of our marketing spend budget?

    Our most profitable customers?

    Or our most valuable customers?

    What is the difference?

    The “customer lifetime value” measure is

    intended to answer this question.

    Measuring Future Potential Profits

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 57

    Dentist A

    Sales = $750,000

    profits = $100,000

    Age 61

    Dentist B

    Sales = $375,000

    profits = $40,000

    Age 25

    Which is more profitable?

    Which is more valuable?

    Imagine you are pharmaceutical supplier.Which Customer is more Important?

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 58

    Historical (trends, insights, inferences)

    Time = 0(now)

    Predictive(uncertainty, risk mgmt.)

    Past(reactive)

    Future(proactive)

    Customer Value Management – Financial Definitions

    Customer Profitability

    The difference between the

    revenues earned from, and the

    total costs associated with, the

    customer relationship during a

    specified period.

    Customer Lifetime Value (CLV)

    The net present value of the

    future cash flows (both

    inwards and outwards)

    attributed to the customer

    relationship during the

    predicted lifetime of that

    relationship

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 59

    Polling Question #4

  • 60

    AGENDA

    ▪ Eras and Issues with managerial accounting

    ▪ Basics on activity-based costing (ABC)

    ▪ Implementing with ABC rapid prototyping

    ▪ Calculating channel and customer profitability

    ▪ Applying analytics

    ▪ Historical versus predictive costing

    ▪ Barriers slowing the adoption rate

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 61

    Why are some customers more profitable than others?

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 62

    Recursive Partitioning / Decision Trees

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    Example:

    The single, largest factor for

    explaining the profit

    variation is Average Order

    Size.

    Customers small order

    quantities are less profitable

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 63

    AGENDA

    ▪ Eras and Issues with managerial accounting

    ▪ Basics on activity-based costing (ABC)

    ▪ Implementing with ABC rapid prototyping

    ▪ Calculating channel and customer profitability

    ▪ Applying analytics

    ▪ Historical versus predictive costing

    ▪ Barriers slowing the adoption rate

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 64

    The Three Key Questions

    What? So what? Then what?

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    This involves price quoting.

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 65

    ACCOUNTING

    Financial

    Accounting

    Cost Measurement

    Managerial

    Accounting

    Cost AccountingFinancial Reporting

    regulatory compliance

    Cost Reporting &

    Analysis(feedback on performance)

    Decision Support/

    Cost Planning•[e.g., GAAP, IFRS]

    •Costs of goods sold

    •Inventory valuation

    • Spending vs. budget variance

    analysis

    • Profitability reporting

    • Process analysis (e.g., lean,

    benchmarking, COQ)

    • Performance measures

    • Learning; corrective actions

    • Fully absorbed & incremental pricing

    • Driver-based budgeting & rolling

    financial forecasts

    • What-if analysis

    • Product, channel & customer

    rationalization

    • Outsourcing & make vs. buy analysis

    History FutureLow value-add Modest value-add High value-add

    Source data capture

    (transactions /

    bookkeeping)

    Non-financial data

    capture

    The Domain of Costing

    Tax

    Accounting

    Source: “A Costing Levels Continuum Maturity Model” by Gary Cokins

    published by the International Federation of Accountants, 2010Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    Source: PABC IGPG “Evaluating and Improving Costing in Organizations” published by the International Federation of Accountants, 2009

    Cokins’ IFAC.org

    Taxonomy of

    Accounting

    GAAP,

    rules

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 66

    ▪ Activity-Based Costing

    - Historical & Descriptive

    - Starts with known:

    spending

    driver measures

    output quantities

    - Calculates “costs”

    ▪ Activity-Based Planning

    - Predictive

    - Requires capacity analysis

    - Starts with estimated outputs

    - Applies ABC/M rates

    - Solves for Resource “expenses”

    NowPast Future

    ABC/M

    ABP

    Recurring Expenses // Future Volume & Mix

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 67

    ABC/M ABP

    Known

    ?

    ?

    resources

    work

    activities

    cost

    objects

    Provides unit-level consumption

    rates

    NowPast Future

    ABC/M

    ABP

    Predictive Accounting

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 68

    ABC/M ABP

    ? calculated

    ?

    Estimated

    resources

    work

    activities

    cost

    objects

    NowPast Future

    ABC/M

    ABP

    Predictive Accounting

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 69

    Accounting Treatments and Behavior of Capacity (expenses)

    NowPast Future

    Descriptive

    Predictive

    unused

    used

    sunk

    fixed(unavoidable)

    variable(adjustable

    capacity;

    avoidable)

    Traceable to

    products,

    channels,

    customers,

    sustaining

    unused

    Predictive Accounting

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 70

    Variable

    Step-fixed

    Fixed

    Sunk

    Expenses

    Copyright 2018 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    One-time order;

    demanded priceLarge capital

    expenditure

    X

    X

    X

    operationalstrategic

    X

    X X

    Resource classifying dependencies

    ---- type of decision →

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 71

    Gary Cokins’ ABC Book

    https://www.wiley.com/en-

    us/Activity+Based+Cost+Ma

    nagement%3A+An+Executiv

    e%27s+Guide-p-

    9780471217275

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Activity+Based+Cost+Management%3A+An+Executive%27s+Guide-p-9780471217275http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 72

    Evaluating the Costing

    Journey:

    A Costing Levels Continuum

    Maturity Model

    By Gary Cokins

    Most organizations are

    typically at lower levels of

    maturity in adopting

    progressive managerial

    accounting practices,

    methods and systems.

    International Federation of Accountants Report

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/images/pd

    fs/20131105-

    IFAC_Evaluating_the_Costing_Journ

    ey_by_Gary_Cokins.pdf

    http://www.garycokins.com/http://www.garycokins.com/images/pdfs/20131105-IFAC_Evaluating_the_Costing_Journey_by_Gary_Cokins.pdf

  • 73

    1D

    Lev

    el #

    2D 3D4D

    5D

    6D

    7D

    8D

    Blind

    ProcessVisibility

    Output Visibility

    Improved Output

    Information/ Approximate

    Accuracy

    Improved Treatmentof Indirect

    Costs

    CustomerDemandSensitive

    UnusedCapacity

    Aware

    (1) Descriptive ContinuumEXPENSE TRACKING, COST

    REPORTING

    and CONSUMPTION RATES

    (2) Predictive ContinuumDEMAND DRIVEN PLANNING

    with CAPACITY SENSITIVITY

    bookkeepingprocess and

    Lean accounting

    Direct costswithout (3) and with

    (4) support coststo output groups

    Push Activity-Based costing(ABC);

    Product costs

    Standardcosting to individual outputs;

    Project acct;Job ordercosting

    Level 6D with Channel andcustomerprofitabilityReporting;

    Cost-to-serve

    Unused capacity costs (estimated)

    Costing Continuum / Levels of Maturity(most companies are Level 5D and 1P)

    Source: “A Costing Levels Continuum Maturity Model” by Gary Cokins published by the International Federation of Accountants, 2019

    2P

    3P

    4P

    5PPull

    Activity-based

    ResourcePlanning

    Time-drivenABC

    ResourceConsumptionAccounting

    Simulation

    (ABRP);Forecast driver quantities X unit consumption rates;

    Driver based budgeting

    (TDABC);Forecast driver quantities X time consumption rates;

    Direct cost focus;

    Repetitive work conditions

    (RCA);Level 2P with proportional costing at direct and support depts.

    Ultimate in consumption rates;

    1P

    %G/L acct.

    Incremental

  • 74

    Power of Information

    $ROI

    Raw

    Data

    Standard

    Reports

    Ad hoc

    Reports &

    OLAP

    Descriptive

    Modeling(with analytics)

    Predictive

    Modeling

    Data Information Knowledge Decisions

    Prescriptive Analytics

    / Optimization

    The Intelligence Hierarchy

    Insights

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 75

    Polling Question #5

  • 76

    Organization

    Resources(capacity)

    Strategy,Mission

    How Does It All Fit Together?

    ERP, etc.Customer

    Satisfaction

    Scorecards,

    Dashboards

    CRM

    ROI

    $

    ShareholdersOwners

    SupplierInputs

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    Connecting customer value to shareholder value

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 77

    Organization

    Resources(capacity)

    Strategy,Mission

    In Summary … first, we energize with good managerial accounting.

    ERP, etc.Customer

    Satisfaction

    Scorecards,

    Dashboards

    CRM

    ROI

    $Shareholders

    SupplierInputs

    Managerial

    Accounting;

    Analytics

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 78

    Organization

    Resources(capacity)

    CRM

    ROI

    $

    ERP, etc.

    Risk Mgmt., Strategy map,

    KPIs

    KPIScores

    Feedback

    Order fulfillment

    Strategy,Mission

    CustomerSatisfaction

    EPM is Circulatory and Simultaneous

    SupplierInputs

    Scorecards,

    Dashboards

    Targeting

    needs

    Shareholder Wealth Creation is not a goal. It is a result!

    Shareholders

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 79

    Organization

    Resources(capacity)

    CRM

    ROI

    $

    ERP, etc.

    Risk Mgmt., Strategy map,

    KPIs

    KPIScores

    Feedback

    Order fulfillment

    Strategy,Mission

    CustomerSatisfaction

    Shareholders

    EPM is Circulatory and Simultaneous

    SupplierInputs

    Scorecards,

    Dashboards

    Targeting

    Shareholder Wealth Creation is not a goal. It is a result!

    leakage(waste)

    wasted resources

    needs

    Less productivity reduces Shareholder Wealth

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 80

    AGENDA

    ▪ Eras and Issues with managerial accounting

    ▪ Basics on activity-based costing (ABC)

    ▪ Implementing with ABC rapid prototyping

    ▪ Calculating channel and customer profitability

    ▪ Applying analytics

    ▪ Historical versus predictive costing

    ▪ Barriers slowing the adoption rate

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 81

    Why has the adoption rate for

    profitability reporting with ABC

    been so slow?

    The Buy-in to Performance Management

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 82

    (1) Technical barriers include IT related issues.

    (3) Organizational behavior barriers involve resistance to

    change, culture, and leadership.

    (2) Perception barriers are excess complexity and

    affordability.

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    Why is the adoption rate so slow? What are the barrier categories?

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 83

    Typical Excuses Preventing Being ProgressiveWe are profitable, so why does it matter?

    We will purchase software that will fix our problems.

    We already know our “true” costs from our general ledger financial reporting

    system.

    We have done it this way forever. And we don’t do that here. We already know

    everything. It is in our heads.

    We are a small organization. We’ll worry about better methods when we get larger.

    All this hype is just made up stuff from highly paid consultants.

    No one looks at the reports I create, so there is no point generating better reports.

    We cannot afford better software to fix our problems.

    We are way too busy doing other things.

    We don’t know where to start or how to get started.

    Source: William Vaughn Company CPAs; IMA conference, June 20, 2018

    Copyright 2018 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 84

    IMA Center for Managing Costing Quality

    There are seven seasoned professionals on this IMA task force who share frustration with the

    slow adoption rate by accountants of progressive management accounting practices, methods,

    and systems.

    The task force’s opinion is that most CFOs and accountants continue to use stale and out of

    date accounting practices from the 1960s !

    Here are links to the task force’s website. The second link is our “Mission” statement. The task

    force members are in the third link. Navigate in it a while to see the various “audiences” we are

    influencing:

    https://www.thecmcq.org/

    https://www.thecmcq.org/about-us

    https://www.thecmcq.org/advisory-board

    Our “demand pull” approach is to “partner with 12+ non-financial and accounting institutes (e.g.,

    www.apics.org , www.asq.org , www.cscmp.org ) to enlist their members to communicate with

    their CFO’s organization that they are being underserved with flawed, misleading, and

    incomplete internal management accounting information to support their decision making.

    Copyright 2017 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    https://www.thecmcq.org/https://www.thecmcq.org/about-ushttps://www.thecmcq.org/advisory-boardhttp://www.apics.org/http://www.asq.org/http://www.cscmp.org/http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 85

    Action steps▪ Get educated. Get buy-in.

    ▪ Rapid prototyping. Start small; think big.

    ▪ Improve incentives. (Motivational theory)

    Getting Started Actions and Resources

    Copyright 2018 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    Resources:

    “Measuring and Managing Customer Profitability”; IMA Strategic Finance; February

    2015.

    http://sfmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/sfarchive/2015/02/Measuring-and-Managing-

    Customer-Profitability.pdf

    A suggestion: Have your management team read either or both of these

    educational pieces. Then schedule a meeting for discussion. Have each

    manager answer, “What did I learn? What issues and concerns do I

    have about EPM?” This will stimulate needed conversations.

    http://www.garycokins.com/http://sfmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/sfarchive/2015/02/Measuring-and-Managing-Customer-Profitability.pdf

  • 86

    From Theory to Practice

    Your success depends

    on how well and how fast

    the right information and

    intelligence gets to the

    right people.

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    http://www.garycokins.com/

  • 87

    Thank You

    Copyright 2019 www.garycokins.com Analytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    Gary Cokins, CPIMAnalytics-Based Performance Management LLC

    Cary, North Carolina USA

    www.garycokins.com

    919 720 2718

    [email protected]

    http://www.garycokins.com/http://www.garycokins.com/mailto:[email protected]

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