Measuring Climatic GradientsMeasuring Climatic Gradients
How do these climatic elements separate How do these climatic elements separate the alpine from the nival species pool?the alpine from the nival species pool?
Sampling rate: 1 hourSampling rate: 1 hour
••TT
••Snow cover durationSnow cover duration
Measuring Climatic Gradients / SnowMeasuring Climatic Gradients / Snow
Number of days with snowcover (May-July)10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Prob
abili
ty o
f pre
senc
e
0.0
1.0
Carex curvulaSilene exscapaFestuca intercedensPrimula glutinosaLuzula spicataMinuartia sedoidesSaxifraga bryoidesOreochloa distichaErigeron uniflorus
Number of days with snowcover (May-July)10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Prob
abili
ty o
f pre
senc
e
0.0
1.0
Androsace alpinaPoa alpinaRanunculus glacialisPoa laxaCerastium uniflorum
early snowmeltearly snowmelt
late snowmeltlate snowmelt
nivalnivalalpinealpine
TEMPERATURE
Black:
FP 6 ALARM climate data(observed and GRAS (A1FI) - HadCM3 )
Coloured:
Directmeasurements at Schrankogel
Climate measurements and projections at Schrankogel
TEMPERATURE
ALARM dataset (observed and GRAS (A1FI) - HadCM3 )
2000-2100: +6°C
Climate measurements and projections at Schrankogel
+9 to 10°C
PRECIPITATION
ALARM dataset (observed and GRAS (A1FI) - HadCM3 )
Climate measurements and projections at Schrankogel
Climate measurements and projections at Schrankogel
PRECIPITATION
ALARM dataset (observed and GRAS (A1FI) -HadCM3 )
TEMPERATURE
By combining the effects of strongly increasing T and relatively stableprecipitation one has to project drastic decrease in snow cover duration
at Schrankogel.
Which vegetation changes can already be observed?
Start of observations: 1994
First monitoring: 2004, one decade later
+1-1.5 °C 1900-2000
+0.1 °C 1994-2004
at a lapse rate of0.7 °C / 100 m
= ~+14 m per decade
n species increase (% of 1994)
02468
1012141618
100 80 50 0
data level (p-threshold)
% in
crea
se
mean
95%-conf.int.
per unit land area
Increase in species number per quadrat 1994-2004
alpine quadrats nival quadrats
Incr
ease
in n
of s
peci
es p
er q
uadr
at
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
species richness increase is BY FAR higher in NIVAL than in ALPINE habitats
Studysite
% species increaseper unit land area
How much speciesincrease(in presence/absence) increase,
p<=0.05
increase,p>0.05
noincrease
decrease
Species cover:
Winners and losers ?
alpine species pool
nival species pool
Source: Pauli et al. 1999, Phytocoenolgia
Veronica alpinaLeucanthemopsis alpinaSilene exscapaSibbaldia procumbensSaxifraga seguieriPedicularis asplenifoliaOreochloa distichaFestuca intercedensErigeron uniflorusCerastium cerastoides
COVER INCREASED
Cover change
Saxifraga oppositifoliaSaxifraga bryoidesRanunculus glacialisPotentilla frigidaPoa laxaPhyteuma hemisphaeric.Luzula spicataCerastium uniflorumCarex curvulaAndrosace alpina
COVER DECREASED
Alpine, alpine to nival, nival species
p=0.02
20041994
a
Silene exscapa alpine
1994 2004
b
Silene exscapa alpine
1994 2004
c
Leucanthemopsis alpina alpine
20041994
e
Cerastium uniflorum nival
1994 2004
f
Saxifraga bryoides nival
1994 2004g
Poa laxa nival
Results so far are accepted by Global Change Biology
Altitudinal moving in terms of metres per decade?
still in analysis BUT:
(unpublished):
~10-12 m / decadeupward migration
compare~14 m / decadeisothermal shift
given an acceleratedT increase of +6 to+ 10 °C until 2100:
•nival zone in Austria extinct, few isolated refugia in Switzerland,France, Italy
•treeline at 3000 m
(economic)adaptation
mitigationof CC acceleration(for the ecosphere and its services)
the world withand without Kyoto
