Maria javed

Mba IT

Decision making underuncertainity

Main headings:

Introduction to the topic

Important sub-topics

Practical study of the

organization

Swot analysis

Conclusion

recommendation

Definition of decision making:

The thought process of selecting a logical choice from the available option.When trying to make a good decision, a person must weight the positives and negatives of each option, and consider all the alternatives. For effective decision making, a person must be able to forecast the outcome of each option as well, and based on all these items, determine which option is the best for that particular situation.

A decision is a course of action which is conciously choosen for achieving a desired result.

Decision making process:

Following are the important steps of the decision making process. Each step

may be supported by different tools and techniques

8 steps of decision making

Step 1: Identification of the purpose of the decision:

In this step, the problem is thoroughly analysed. There are a couple of questions one should ask when it comes to identifying the purpose of the decision.

What exactly is the problem?

Why the problem should be solved?

Who are the affected parties of the problem?

Does the problem have a deadline or a specific time-line?

Step 2: Information gathering:

A problem of an organization will have many stakeholders. In addition, there can be dozens of factors involved and affected by the problem.

In the process of solving the problem, you will have to gather as much as information related to the factors and stakeholders involved in the problem. For the process of information gathering, tools such as 'Check Sheets' can be effectively used.

Cont.....Step 3: Principles for judging the alternatives:

In this step, the baseline criteria for judging the alternatives should be set up. When it comes to defining the criteria, organizational goals as well as the corporate culture should be taken into consideration.

As an example, profit is one of the main concerns in every decision making process. Companies usually do not make decisions that reduce profits, unless it is an exceptional case. Likewise, baseline principles should be identified related to the problem in hand.

Step 4: Brainstorm and analyze the different choices:

For this step, brainstorming to list down all the ideas is the best option. Before the idea generation step, it is vital to understand the causes of the problem and prioritization of causes.

For this, you can make use of Cause-and-Effect diagrams and Pareto Chart tool. Cause-and-Effect diagram helps you to identify all possible causes of the problem and Pareto chart helps you to prioritize and identify the causes with highest effect.

Then, you can move on generating all possible solutions (alternatives) for the problem in hand.

Cont.......Step 5: Evaluation of alternatives:

Use your judgment principles and decision-making criteria to evaluate each alternative. In this step, experience and effectiveness of the judgment principles come into play. You need to compare each alternative for their positives and negatives.

Step 6: Select the best alternative:

Once you go through from Step 1 to Step 5, this step is easy. In addition, the selection of the best alternative is an informed decision since you have already followed a methodology to derive and select the best alternative.

Step 7: Execute the decision:

Convert your decision into a plan or a sequence of activities. Execute your plan by yourself or with the help of subordinates.

Step 8: Evaluate the results:

Evaluate the outcome of your decision. See whether there is anything you should learn and then correct in future decision making. This is one of the best practices that will improve your decision-making skills.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

UncertaintyA decision under uncertainty is when there are many unknowns and no possibility of knowing what could occur in the future to alter the outcome of a decision. We feel uncertainty about a situation when we can't predict with complete confidence what the outcomes of our actions will be. We experience uncertainty about a specific question when we can't give a single answer with complete confidence.Launching a new product, a major change in marketing strategy or opening your first branch could be influenced by such factors as the reaction of competitors, new competitors, technological changes, changes in customer demand, economic shifts, government legislation and a host of conditions beyond your control.

uncertainity

The key to effective decision making in these circumstances is to acquire as much relevant information as possible and to approach the situation from a logical and rational perspective.Intuition, judgment, and experience always play major roles inthe decision-making process under conditions of uncertainty.Even so, this condition is the most ambiguous for managers and the one most prone to error.

Example

When you have uncertainty, that means

you're not really sure. If you missed a lot

of classes and didn't study much, you

may have uncertainty about whether you

passed your test or not?

UNDER UNCERTAINTY, THE DECISIONS BECOME

SUBJECTIVE DUE TO:

lack of openness to experience,

inability to see things in unusual ways

lack of curiosity

inability to accept and reconcile apparent opposites

lack of tolerance of ambiguity

lack of independence in judgment, thought, and action

lack for autonomy and the willingness to assume it

lack of self-reliance

lack of willingness to take calculated risks

lack of persistence.

Practical study of the organization

Introduction: In year 2008, Wang Jianzhou, CEO of China Mobile is anticipating

that the new brand is not only a brand of the Pakistan branch, but also an international brand for China Mobile, which aims to provide communication among societies. MR. Liu LiDong, Director PMO states, “We are not just mobile operators but information providers for society”.

The central idea behind this step is to provide optimized network coverage across wide range. The combination of continued rapid growth in Pakistan's economy, rising consumer purchasing power and the acceleration of informatization throughout the country is driving a tremendous demand for communications and information services.

Irrespective of competitive edge the company wants to maintain strong relationship with customers by providing value added services. While elaborating market penetration strategies, Mr Jianzhou suggested introduction of more value-added services, like mobile TV, mobile music, news, billing for subscribers specially the young population.

Our vision

Become an indispensable digital life

partner

Our mission

To lead the future innovatively through:

Customer Centricity

Boundary less Team

Organizational Agility

Organization structure

In Zong the hierarchy is very lean, in general the whole setup is centralized, all the matters are to be reported to the main company and all the policies and targets are approved at the higher level. But at the department level the structure is decentralized.

The human resource of Zong is highly skillful, educated and committed towards their work. Mostly people working in Zong are masters in specialized fields. According to them their human resource is their biggest assets. Human resource manager is responsible of handling any disturbances but small disputes are handled by supervisors. A continuous training is conducted inside and outside the organization to improve the skills of the employee. On achieving different target different intrinsic and extrinsic rewards are given. The job description of each and every employee is predefined. Performance appraisal is done on annual basis.

Decision making conditions in

zong

Conditions

Managers make problem‐solving

decisions under three different

conditions: certainty, risk, and

uncertainty. All managers make

decisions under each condition, but

risk and uncertainty are common to

the more complex and unstructured

problems faced by top managers.

Risk,certainity,uncertainity

Risk

the possibility that something bad or unpleasant (such as an injury or a loss) will happen.

Certainity

Something that will definetly happen or that you feel very sure about.

Uncertainity

a situation in which something is not known, or something that is not known or certain:Nothing is ever decided,and all the uncertainty is very bad.

Decision Making in Certain conditions

In this situation, the decision maker obtains the complete information in order to facilitate his decision making. Therefore, they are able to know with certainty what situations will occur in the future. By knowing what will occur in the future, hence the results generated by each of the alternative decisions will be able to be ascertained or known with certainty. Therefore, the alternatives that give the best result will be selected and implemented.

Swot analysis

Strength:

Appointment of Communications Officer who provides the enthusiasm, skills, knowledge and time

Good facilities for broadcasting information

A communications Committee representing all interest groups in the Department

An Intranet

Good ‘top-down’ communication

Weaknesses:

Poor facilities for encouraging face to face contact and discussion

Very few Departmental meetings at which all members of Department’s voice can be heard

No common area for staff to encourage collegiality

Culture of ‘It doesn’t apply to me’

meetings not attended

Consequently, weak collective identity

Opportunities:

An information pack to be given to all

visitors to the Department about

research, , consultancy and

industry/government advisory

activities

More research collaboration with other

companies to form networks/partners

Improve website

Threats:

Staff consider these kinds of a activities (external committees) as unrecognised or not worthwhile

Staff don’t have the necessary information to make the collaborative links

Staff don’t have the necessary administrative support

Staff over-committed and don’t have time.

Conclusions

We can conclude from this report that decision making is very important for every organization.During decision making zong face different situations like risk,certainity and uncertainity.risk and uncertainity are most comen issues that manager face during decision making. In uncertain situation, the decision maker obtains the complete information in order to facilitate his decision making. Therefore, they are able to know with certainty what situations will occur in the future.

Recomendation

Managers can improve decision-making. They can adopt strategies for organizational learning, increase the breadth and diversity of the top management team. To improve decision making, top managers can surround themselves with people who express opposing points of view. They can collect information from dissenters. However, managers often select people who agree with them.