Meeting local and global climate goals

may 9.2016

Noelle Eckley Selin Assoc. Professor, IDSS & EAPSRon Prinn Director & Prof, Center for Global Change Science Steven Lanou Deputy Director, Office of SustainabilityJoe Higgins Director, Infrastructure Business Ops, Office of Exec. VP & Treasurer

32 percent and beyond: MIT’s role in meeting local and global climate goals

may 9.2016

Noelle Eckley Selin Assoc. Professor, IDSS & EAPS


may 9.2016

Ron Prinn Director & Prof, Center for Global Change Science


DEPLETION OF ARCTIC SUMMER SEA ICEReplacing reflecting with absorbing surface. New RECORD LOW in Sept 2012

INSTABILITY OF GREENLAND & WEST ANTARCTIC ICE SHEETS7+5=12 meters of potential sea-level rise (Eemian sea level rise = 5-10 meters)

INSTABILITY OF ARCTIC TUNDRA & PERMAFROSTAbout 1670 billion tons of carbon stored in Arctic tundra & frozen soils; equivalent

to >200 times current anthropogenic emissions (Tarnocai, GBC, 2009)

DELETERIOUS INCREASES OF OCEANIC ACIDITYpH drop exceeding 0.5 (>875 ppm CO2) could decimate calcareous phytoplankton

INCREASING DESTRUCTIVENESS OF TYPHOONS/HURRICANESIncreased 2-3 times post-1960 and correlated with sea-surface warming

(Emanuel, Sci., 2005; Kossin et al, GRL, 2007)

DEEP OCEAN CARBON & HEAT SINK SLOWED BY DECREASED SEA ICE & INCREASED FRESH WATER INPUTS INTO POLAR SEAS

e.g. collapse if CO2 >620 ppm & CLIMATE SENSITIVITY >3.5oC (Scott et al, 2008)

SHIFTING CLIMATE ZONES Maximum warming & % precipitation increase in polar regions

More arid sub-tropics & lower mid-latitudes (IPCC, 2013)

LOWERING RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: THE GREENHOUSE GAMBLE and THE CHALLENGE of 2OC

Ron Prinn, SustainabilityConnect, MIT, May 9, 2016

TO ESTIMATE ODDS OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE, WE USE THE MIT INTEGRATED GLOBAL SYSTEM

MODEL (IGSM) THAT COUPLES HUMAN (ECONOMIC) SYSTEM &

EARTH (ENVIRONMENTAL) SYSTEM *globalchange.mit.edu/research/IGSM

TO FORECAST PROBABILITY For each policy choice, we do 400 IGSM runs (1750-2100) with different but equally probable assumptions about uncertain

parameters and structures in the IGSM

HUMAN SYSTEM IGSM ATTRIBUTES:(1) ALL MAJOR NATIONAL

ECONOMIES AND TRADING BETWEEN THEM

(2) DETAILED ENERGY AND NON-ENERGY SECTOR

TREATMENTS (3) ALL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY NATION &

SECTOR (4) GREENHOUSE GAS & AIR

POLLUTANT CHEMICAL CYCLES(5) CLIMATE RESPONSE TO

GREENHOUSE GASES(6) IMPACTS OF CLIMATE & AIR

POLLUTION CHANGE ON GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT

COMPARED WITH NO POLICY

What would we buy with STABILIZATION

at 660 ppm-equivalent of CO2?

A NEW WHEELWITH LOWER

ODDS OF EXTREMES

THE “GREENHOUSE GAMBLE”THE VALUE OF CLIMATE POLICY UNDER UNCERTAINTY IS TO LOWER THE RISK

USING IGSM, WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF GLOBAL AVERAGE SURFACE AIR WARMING from 1990 (1981-2000) to 2095 (2091-2100) EXCEEDING VARIOUS LEVELS, WITHOUT GREENHOUSE GAS

STABILIZATION (median 1330 ppm-equiv. CO2) & WITH STABILIZATION (median 660 ppm-equiv. CO2)? Currently at 490 ppm-equiv. CO2.

(Ref: Sokolov et al, J. Clim. 2009; Webster et al, Clim. Change, 2012)

WE ARE CURRENTLY GAMBLING OUR FUTURE CLIMATE ON THE LEFT HAND WHEEL.

THE CHALLENGE IS TO MOVE TO A MUCH LESS RISKY WHEEL LIKE THE RIGHT HAND ONE.

BUT EVEN WITH THE RIGHT HAND WHEEL THERE IS 80% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2OC ABOVE 1990,

AND 97% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2OC ABOVE PREINDUSTRIAL

Sea level rise is an exemplar of the risks to be avoided. The record of past temperatures and sea levels deduced from polar ice cores and other data shows that the last time polar temperatures went above about 4°C over 1875 levels (116,000 to 129,000 years ago), global sea levels were

5-10 meters (16-32 feet) higher than present (IPCC, WG1, 2013). This sea level rise indicates melting of much of the Greenland and West

Antarctic ice sheets.

HOW CAN WE KEEP GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE INCREASES TO BE LESS THAN 2OC (3.6OF) ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL LEVELS?

There are now compelling reasons to regard a warming of about 2°C (3.6 °F) between preindustrial (1875) and 2100 as a threshold, above which

the damages globally to human and natural systems due to climate change begin to become economically and ethically less and less

tenable (IPCC, WG1, 2013)

IT WILL NOT BE EASY. WE ARE ALREADY ABOUT 1OC ABOVE PREINDUSTRIAL.

Due to amplification of polar warming, a polar temperature 4°C over preindustrial corresponds to a global average temperature of about 2°C

over preindustrial.

THE 2OC CHALLENGE

A PLAN FOR ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE, President Rafael Reif et al, October 21, 2015

After several years of research, estimates of the cost of Carbon Capture & Sequestration (CCS) have risen substantially.

Entry of China and other countries into the Nuclear Power Sector has lowered costs and increased the future viability of Nuclear at least in Developing Countries.

Current & projected costs of solar power (manufacture and installation) have steadily decreased, and to a lesser extent of wind power, but intermittency remains a challenge for both.

Expectations for affordable biofuels (cellulosic in particular) and to a lesser extent biomass electricity have grown.

SOME RECENT TRENDS IN THE VIABILITY OF LOW & ZERO EMISSIONS TECHNOLOGIES THAT INFLUENCE OUR RESULTS

USE A POLICY THAT PLACES A COST ON EMISSIONS: CARBON PRICE ($/tonCO2-eq) RISES FROM 50, 100 & 150 ($/tonCO2-eq) in

2010 to 1400, 2800 & 4200 ($/tonCO2-eq) in 2100 FOR LOW, MEDIUM & HIGH CLIMATE RESPONSE RESPECTIVELY.

A “PRELIMINARY EXPLORATION” OF THE 2OC CHALLENGE USING

THE MIT IGSM

Global Average Surface Temperature Change (OC)

Total Greenhouse Gases(ppm CO2 equivalents)

THE 2OC CHALLENGE, contd. CHOOSE COMBINATIONS OF:POLICY COST (CARBON PRICE in 2010 & 2100, in 2010 US$/tonCO2-eq) and LOW, MEDIUM OR HIGH CLIMATE RESPONSE (labeled by 2, 3, 4.5 OC

climate sensitivities) THAT ACHIEVE THE TARGET. After 2100 all human GHG emissions decrease at 1%/year. (Prinn, Paltsev, Sokolov & Chen calculations)

Low Climate ResponseLow Price: $50-1400/tonC

Medium Climate ResponseMedium Price: $100-2800/tonC

High Climate ResponseHigh Price: $150-4200/tonC

PRELIMINARY EXPLORATION COMBINATIONS OF POLICY (CARBON PRICE in 2010 & 2100 in 2010 USA

$/tonCO2-eq) & CLIMATE RESPONSE (2, 3, 4.5 OC climate sensitivities) THAT

ACHIEVE TARGET.

As carbon price rises, the fraction of energy

from low/zero emission technologies rises

(renewables [wind, solar, biofuel], hydro, nuclear)

relative to fossil.

20152025

20352045

20552065

20752085

20950

50100150200250300350400450500

renewableshydronuclearnatural gasoilcoal

EJ2015

20252035

20452055

20652075

20852095

050

100150200250300350400450500


EJ

20152025

20352045

20552065

20752085

20950

50100150200250300350400450500


EJ

$50-$1400/ton, Low Response

$100-$2800/ton, Medium Response $150-$4200/ton, High Response

As carbon price rises, total energy use

decreases (higher energy efficiency), while energy

use decreases in Developed Nations &

increases in Developing Nations.

Global Total Energy Use (Exa-Joules per year) by Production Technology.

Emerging competition for land and water

resources (biofuels, biomass

electric power, hydropower,

forestry, food)

Keeping future global average surface temperatures less than 2OC above preindustrial is feasible, but the technological, economic and political challenges are very large.

Decrease consumption of energy through increases in energy efficiency: buildings, urban infrastructure, air, land and sea transportation, and transportation systems.

Transform primary energy generation: biofuels, biomass electricity, fossil or biomass with carbon capture & sequestration (CCS), geothermal, hydro, nuclear, solar, waves and wind.

Match energy supply and demand in an energy system with significant intermittency: energy transmission (the grid), secondary fuels (hydrogen) and energy storage (batteries, pumped storage).

Engage technologies to reduce non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions: methane, nitrous oxide, synthetic high technology gases.

Affordable technologies for CCS also provide a “safety valve” allowing large scale biomass electric power generation with CCS to create a gigatons/year carbon sink.

Economic and political barriers motivate adoption of national & global policies that use market mechanisms to minimize costs and revenue neutrality to gain acceptance.

Achieving the 2OC target has significant air pollution reduction co-benefits. The many difficulties in achieving the 2OC target argue for substantial

efforts in adaptation in concert with mitigation.

2OC CHALLENGE SOME PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS REGARDING IT’S ACHIEVEMENT

may 9.2016

Steven Lanou Deputy Director, Office of Sustainability


http://www.ghgprotocol.org/http://www.ghgprotocol.org/files/ghgp/public/overview-of-scopes.JPG

The GHG Protocol categorizes emissions into three broad scopes:

1: All direct GHG emissions.2: Indirect GHG emissions from consumption of purchased electricity, heat or steam.3: Other indirect emissions, such as the extraction and production of purchased materials and fuels, transport-related activities in vehicles not owned or controlled by the reporting entity, electricity-related activities (e.g. T&D losses) not covered in Scope 2, outsourced activities, waste disposal, etc.

MIT measures the areas indicated on the graph, which is in line with industry best practice for higher education.

Scopes measured by MIT in the FY2014 and FY2015 GHG Inventories*

*Transmission & distribution losses are not shown on this graph, but are measured by MIT in Scope 3 according to the GHG Protocol

GHG InventoryScopes Measured

MIT GHG Inventory Overview – December 2015MIT Office of Sustainability | sustainability.mit.edu

http://www.ghgprotocol.org/

http://www.ghgprotocol.org/

http://www.ghgprotocol.org/files/ghgp/public/overview-of-scopes.JPG



MIT measures all direct emissions in Scope 1 and all indirect emissions in Scope 2. MIT also currently measures T&D losses and space leased for academic purposes on the Cambridge campus in Scope 3.

Because “scopes” are not an easily recognizable set of categories for the general public, MIT, like most of our institutional peers, categorizes emissions into more familiar categories. Which emissions from each scope are included in these categories is shown in the diagram to the left.

The three categories used by MIT are Buildings, Fugitive Gases, and Campus Vehicles.

GHG InventoryScopes Measured

Building energy use

Campus vehicles

Fugitive gases

Scope 1Direct Emissions

Scope 2Indirect Emissions

Scope 3Indirect Emissions

Purchased electricity

Purchased steam & chilled water

Leased spaceTransmission & distribution losses

Buildings Fugitive Gases Campus Vehicles

MIT measures all of these, and organizes into three large categories:

GHG Protocol Scopes


MIT Emissions Categories

MITIMCO

Not IncludedOFF-CAMPUS SPACES LINCOLN LABORATORY

BATES LINEAR ACCELERATOR CENTERHAYSTACK OBSERVATORY

The MIT FY2014 and FY2015 inventories include buildings owned and leased for the Cambridge campus. The inventories do not currently include real estate investment holdings managed by MITIMCO, off-campus space, Lincoln Laboratory, Endicott House, Haystack Observatory, Bates Linear Accelerator Center, or the MA Green High Performance Computing Center.

GHG InventorySpace Measured

MIT OWNED BUILDINGS (FOR ACADEMIC USE)

MIT LEASED BUILDINGS (FOR ACADEMIC USE)

MA GREEN HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING CENTERENDICOTT HOUSE


FUGITIVE GASES4,000 MTCO2E 1.9%

VEHICLES1,150 MTCO2E 0.5%

LEASED ACADEMIC BUILDINGS4,101 MTCO2E 1.9%

2014 is the baseline year for MIT emissions reduction. It is the year from which MIT will begin accounting as the Institute works to achieve it’s GHG reduction goal and represents the first year of comprehensive and streamlined data collection.

Fugitive gas emissions and fleet vehicle use comprise <3% of emissions, while 98% of emissions stem from operation of labs, offices, and facilities across campus.

Buildings

GHG InventoryFY14 Inventory

Fugitive Gases

Campus Vehicles

TOTAL 2014213,428 MTCO2E

MIT Owned Buildings,

204176.983575164, 96%

MIT GREENHOUSE GAS EMISISONS INVENTORY2014 MAIN CATEGORIES

MET

RIC

TONS

CO2

E

TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION LOSSES (3,834)

LEASED BUILDINGS (ALL SOURCES) (4,101)

#2 FUEL OIL (8,069)

#6 FUEL OIL (12,557)

ELECTRICITY (38,765)

NATURAL GAS (140,953)

BUILDINGFUEL

SOURCEDETAIL

MTCO2E

FUGITIVE GASES*4,000 MTCO2E 1.9%

VEHICLES*1,150 MTCO2E 0.6%

LEASED ACADEMIC BUILDINGS*4,101 MTCO2E 2%

The 2015 inventory was audited by the MIT Office of Treasury and represents the second year of comprehensive inventory assessment for the Institute.

The total change in emissions from 2014 was a reduction of 12,408 MTCO2e, or 6%.

* Some data is currently estimated for the 2015 inventory, including leased building space, campus vehicles, and fugitive gases. These categories will be updated at the end of the calendar year, to accurately reflect total emissions for the GHG inventory which is calculated based on fiscal year.

GHG InventoryFY15 Inventory

TOTAL 2015201,020 MTCO2E

MIT GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY2015 MAIN CATEGORIES

MET

RIC

TONS

CO2

E

TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION LOSSES (3,609)

LEASED BUILDINGS (ALL SOURCES) (4,101)*

#2 FUEL OIL (6,892)

#6 FUEL OIL (14,746)

ELECTRICITY (36,494)

NATURAL GAS (130,027)

BUILDINGFUEL

SOURCEDETAIL

* Estimated. The GHG inventory will be updated in early 2016 when final data for these categories become available

MIT Owned Buildings,

191767.991542567, 95%

MTCO2E

MIT GREENHOUSE GAS EMISISONS INVENTORYHISTORICAL EMISSIONS FROM BUILDINGS ONLY

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

MET

RIC

TONS

CO2

E

MM

BTU

ENERGY USEBUILDINGS ONLY

ANNUAL EMISSIONSBUILDINGS ONLY

PRE-COGEN1990-1996

COGENERATION1996-2002

GROWTH2002-2006

EFFICIENCY2006-2014

CLIMATE LEADERSHIP2015

MIT has non-audited greenhouse gas data for buildings dating back to 1990. From this data, emissions can be roughly categorized into four phases of development from 1990 to the present: Pre-Cogeneration, Cogeneration, Campus Growth, and Efficiency. The next phase of MIT’s greenhouse gas management is Climate Leadership, beginning with the first Institutional GHG reduction goal of at least 32% by 2030 below 2014 levels being set in 2015, and the release of the first comprehensive and audited institutional GHG inventories for 2014 and 2015.

Note that this graphic shows trends only for emissions from buildings. Beginning in 2014, MIT also measures emissions from fugitive gases and campus vehicle use which are omitted from this figure.

AUDITED EMISSIONS DATASTARTS 2014

MIT GREENHOUSE GAS EMISISONSPROJECTION TO MEET CLIMATE GOAL

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

213,428 MTCO2E

145,131 MTCO2E

2015

2014

BAS

ELIN

E YE

AR

2030

GO

AL

THE NEXT PHASE OF ACTION FOR MIT CREATING A CLIMATE ACTION PLAN TO REACH THE 32 PERCENT REDUCTION GOAL

POTENTIAL REDUCTION STRATEGIES

may 9.2016

Joe HigginsDirector, Infrastructure Business Ops, Office of Exec. VP & Treasurer


ProgramGrowth

10%

32%

Path to exceed 2030 goal

2014Baseline

204,000

2030MeetGoal

2030Exceed

Goal

CentralUtility

Plant (CUP) Enhancements

Efficiency Gains in Buildings*

10%

8 -12%

On-SiteSolar

Large ScaleOff-Site

Renewables

15-17%

Large ScaleOff-Site

Renewablesor Other

18-20%

Metric Tones CO2e

50%

32% and beyond…

*Efficiency gains in buildings include ongoing and planned infrastructure renewal, recommissioning, operations improvements, Efficiency Forward Program, green labs and institute-wide sustainability efforts

GrowRenewables

ProductionEfficiency

Reduce Demand

1 2 3

1-3%

18%

may 9.2016

MIT’s role in meeting local and global climate goals

discussion & questions

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Meeting local and global climate goals

Environment