Director-General, The Energy and Resources Institute
Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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26th February 2013 Heriot-Watt University Industry Day 2013 Sustainable Development: Infrastructure Challenges and Solutions
Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change : The Role of Industry R. K. Pachauri
Observed Changes
Global average temperature
Global average sea level
Northern hemisphere snow cover
Source : IPCC
Source : IPCC
Projected surface temperature changes 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5
Continued emissions would lead to further warming of 1.1ºC to 6.4ºC over the 21st century (best estimates: 1.8ºC - 4ºC)
Since 1950, extreme hot days and heavy precipitation have become more common
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There is evidence that anthropogenic influences, including increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, have changed these extremes
Impacts of climate extremes can be felt locally or regionally
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“Mongolian herdsmen face starvation” AGRICULTURE
“Heatwave hits French power production” ENERGY
“Drought returns to haunt Ethiopia”’ WATER
“Cholera confirmed in Pakistan flood disaster” PUBLIC HEALTH
“Alpine resorts feel heat during record warm spell” TOURISM
“Flash flooding causes train to derail” TRANSPORTATION
March 14, 2000, BBC World News
August 12, 2003, The Guardian
May 19, 2008, Reuters
August 14, 2010, Associated Press
December 08, 2006, CNN World News
July 30, 2001, Chicago Sun Times
Understanding the causes of change
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Most of the observed increase in temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations
Global GHG emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004
CO2 annual emissions grew by about 80% between 1970 and 2004
Industrial sector GHG emissions
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Energy-related CO2 emissions from the industrial sector grew from 6.0 GtCO2 in 1971 to 9.9 GtCO2 in 2004.
Industrial sector energy-related CO2
emissions in 2004: 35% developed nations
11% transition economies
53% developing nations
Source : IPCC
Possible abrupt or irreversible impacts
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Partial loss of ice sheets on polar land could imply metres of sea level rise, major changes in coastlines and inundation of low-lying areas
20-30% of species are likely to be at risk of extinction if increases in warming exceed 1.5-2.5°C
Large scale and persistent changes in Meridional Overturning Circulation would have impacts on marine ecosystem productivity, fisheries, ocean CO2 uptake and terrestrial vegetation
Source : IPCC
Projected impacts on livelihoods
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Low economic growth Lack of skilled labor Lack of industry
Primary subsistence agriculture
Communities face malnutrition
Low literacy rates
High population growth Poor health services
and education systems Shortage of safe
drinking water
Source : IPCC
Climate models project more frequent hot days throughout the 21st century
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In many regions, the time between “20-year” (unusually) warm days will decrease
A changing climate leads to changes in extreme weather and climate events
Increasing vulnerability, exposure, or severity and frequency of climate events increases disaster risk
Source : IPCC
Vulnerability of industry to climate change
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Industry is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of extreme weather. In order to adapt to these, companies can: design resistant facilities
relocate plants to less vulnerable locations
diversify raw material sources, especially
agricultural or forestry inputs. Industry is also vulnerable to impacts of changes in consumer preference and government regulation in response to climate change. Companies can respond to these by: mitigating their own emissions
developing lower-emission products
Source : IPCC
Increasing exposure of people and assets has been the major cause of changes in disaster losses
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Pakistan floods, 2010. 6 million left homeless
Source : IPCC
Fatalities are higher in developing countries
From 1970-2008, over 95% of natural-disaster-related deaths occurred in developing countries
Source : IPCC
Effective risk management and adaptation are tailored to local and regional needs and circumstances
• Changes in climate extremes vary across regions • Each region has unique vulnerabilities and exposure to hazards • Effective risk management and adaptation address the factors contributing to exposure and
vulnerability Source : IPCC
Role and limits of adaptation
Societies have a long record of adapting to the impacts of weather and climate
Adaptation is necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions
Adaptation to the impacts of climate change & promotion of sustainable development share common goals
Source : IPCC 16
But adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the projected effects of climate change
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Adaptation and Mitigation
“Neither adaptation nor mitigation alone can avoid all climate change impacts;
however, they can complement each other and
together can significantly reduce the risks of climate
change”
- IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
Source : IPCC
Characteristics of Stabilization Scenarios
Stabilization level
(ppm CO2-eq)
Global mean temp. increase
(ºC)
Year CO2 needs to peak
Global sea level rise above pre- industrial
from thermal expansion (m)
445 – 490 2.0 – 2.4 2000-2015 0.4 – 1.4
490 – 535 2.4 – 2.8 2000-2020 0.5 – 1.7
535 – 590 2.8 – 3.2 2010-2030 0.6 – 1.9
590 – 710 3.2 – 4.0 2020-2060 0.6 – 2.4
Source : IPCC
Post-TAR stabilization scenarios
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Impacts of mitigation on GDP growth
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2030 Time Current
GDP
GDP without mitigation
GDP with stringent mitigation
Mitigation would postpone GDP growth of one year at most over the medium term
Cost of mitigation in 2030: max 3% of global GDP
Source : IPCC
Managing the risks: hurricanes in the USA and Caribbean
Risk Factors
population growth
increasing property value
higher storm surge with sea level rise
better forecasting
warning systems
stricter building codes
regional risk pooling
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Hurricane Katrina, 2005
Projected globally: likely increase in average maximum wind speed and associated heavy rainfall (although not in all regions)
Risk Management/ Adaptation
Managing the risks: flash floods in Nairobi, Kenya
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rapid growth of informal settlements
weak building construction
settlements built near rivers and blocked drainage areas
reduce poverty
strengthen buildings
improve drainage and sewage
early warning systems
Nairobi, Kenya
Projected: likely increase in heavy precipitation in East Africa
Risk Management/ Adaptation
Risk Factors
Challenges for the industrial sector
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In developing countries: many industrial facilities have new
technology with low energy use
there is huge demand for technology transfer to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions
But many older, inefficient facilities remain in industrialized and developing countries.
Both the public and the private sectors have important roles in the development of low-GHG-emission technologies that will be needed to meet long-term mitigation objectives.
Source : IPCC
Mitigation options for the industrial sector
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Many options exist for mitigating GHGs from the industrial sector: 1. Sector-wide options: (i.e: more efficient
electric motors; high efficiency boilers; fuel switching; use of waste materials; recycling)
2. Process-specific options: (i.e: use of the bioenergy contained in food and pulp and paper industry wastes; turbines to recover the energy contained in pressurized blast furnace gas)
3. Operating procedures: (i.e: control and reduction of air leaks; optimum use of insulation; optimization of equipment size to ensure high capacity utilization)
Source : IPCC
Mitigation potential and costs in the industrial sector
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Under scenarios which emphasize local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, the largest mitigation potentials are: located in the steel, cement, and pulp
and paper industries
in the control of non-CO2 gases. Application of CCS technology offers
large additional potential but at higher costs.
Source : IPCC
Uncertainties in mitigation potential and costs
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Key uncertainties in mitigation potential and cost in 2030 are: the rate of technology development and
diffusion
the cost of future technology
future energy and carbon prices
the level of industry activity in 2030
and climate and non-climate policy drivers.
Key gaps in knowledge are the base case energy intensity for specific industries, especially in economies-in-transition, and consumer preferences.
Source : IPCC
Mitigation in the industrial sector
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Full use of available mitigation options is not being made in industrialized and developing nations. Often, companies will invest in GHG mitigation only if there is a return on their investment and not because GHG mitigation is demanded by market or government regulations. Other barriers include: lack of financial and technical resources.
limitations in the ability of industrial firms to
access and absorb technological information about available options.
Industry GHG investment decisions will continue to be driven by consumer preferences, costs, competitiveness and government regulation.
Source : IPCC
Towards sustainable development
Committing to alternative development paths would require structural changes both in developed and developing countries, in a variety of areas:
• Institutional arrangements
• Geographical distribution of activities
• Demography
• Lifestyles and consumption patterns
Source : IPCC
“A technological society has two choices. First it can wait until catastrophic failures expose systemic deficiencies, distortion and self deceptions… Secondly, a culture can provide social checks and balances to correct for systemic distortion prior to catastrophic failures” - Mahatma Gandhi
