MEETING THEENERGY NEEDSOF OUR COUNTRY
A VIEW FROMWASHINGTON, D.C.Petroleum IndustryAppreciation DayAugust 28, 2002
59% Growth/20 Years
Figure 8: World Oil Supply and Demand Forecast1995-2020
DEMAND
OPEC SUPPLY
NON-OPEC SUPPLY
Source: DOE/EIA
NATIONALENERGYPOLICY
May, 2001
America must have an energy policy that plans for the future, but meets the needs of today. I believe we can develop our natural resources and protect our environment.
-President George W. BushTo meet our energy challenge, we must put to good use the resources around us and the talents within us.
-Vice President Dick CheneyMay, 2001
Were going to be out ofcrude oil about the year 2000or shortly thereafter.
What happens then?Ecologist/ZoologistKenneth E. F. Watt1970
The diagnosis of the U.S. energy crisis isquite simple: demand for energy is increasing,while supplies of oil and natural gas arediminishing. Unless the U.S. makes a timelyadjustment before world oil becomes veryscarce and expensive in the 1980s, the nationseconomic security and the American way of lifewill be gravely endangered.Carter AdministrationNational Energy Plan1970s
Source: DOE/EIA
Coal 22.8%
Natural Gas23.7%
Other 7.0%
Nuclear8.0%
Oil 38.5%
Figure 4: U.S. Energy Consumptionby Source, 2000
1970-2020
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Coal
Non-Hydro& Others
Hydro
Nuclear
History
Projection
Figure 2: Energy Consumption by Fuel
Source: DOE/EIA
Figure 9: Renewable Energy Forecastfor Electric Generation, 1998 - 2020
Wind
Solar
Source: DOE/EIA
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
YEAR
1999 NPC Reference Case
1992 NPC High Case
1992 NPC Low Case
Actual
A C T U A L
F O C U S P E R I O D
E X T E N D E D V I E W
U.S.Natural Gas DemandComparison of 1992 and 1999 NPC Study Results
1999 NPC Range of Outcomes
TRILLION CUBIC FEET
15
20
25
30
35
ACTUAL
FOCUS PERIOD
EXTENDED VIEW
Total 829 Trillion Cubic Feet
Source: Potential Gas Committee
Rocky Mountain235 Tcf, 28%
Pacific57 Tcf, 7%
Mid-Continent135 Tcf, 16%
Gulf Coast259 Tcf, 32%
Atlantic119 Tcf, 14%
North Central24 Tcf, 3%
Figure 16: 2000 Estimates of Potential Gas Resources
U.S. Lower-48 Natural Gas Reserves Subject to Access Restrictions
* Approximately 29 TCF Of The Rockies Gas Resources Are Closed To Development And 108 TCF Are Available With Restrictions.
Surface Use/Seasonal Restrictions
Sheet1
Wildlife RestrictionsJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
Big Game Winter Range
Sage Grouse Lek
Sage Grouse Nesting
Mountain Plover Breeding
Mountain Plover Nesting
Raptor Nesting
a) Borrowing Owl
Archaeology Weather Restriction
Section 7 Prairie Dog Avoidance
Typical 8000' Well
Typical Deep Horizontal Well
&C&"Times New Roman,Bold"&20CD/WII Wildlife Restrictions
&L&"Times New Roman,Regular"&8&F&D
Sheet2
Sheet3
Endangered Species, Wilderness, and Other Restrictions
Federal Lands
Access to the Resource...
Source: EOG Resources
Natural Gas: Increasing Decline Rates
May 2002
Source: EOG Resources
NATURAL GAS
Fuel of Choice
Abundant
EnvironmentallyAcceptable
Ninety-eight percent (98%)of transportation is fueledby oil. More than 55%of oil consumed in theUnited States is importedfrom other countries.
Oil imports have risenfrom a low of 32%(1982) to over 56%currently. Source: Independent Petroleum Associationof America - US Petroleum Statistics 2000
NATIONALENERGY LEGISLATIONANDINDEPENDENTPRODUCERSISSUES
ACCESS ISSUESAn assessment of impediments to onshoreleasing (House)Funding for the timely processing of leases,permits and inspections (Senate)A requirement to eliminate unwarranteddenials and stays of federal leases (House)Exemption of held by production acreagefrom lease acreage caps (Senate)
ACCESS ISSUESLimitation of cost recovery of onshoreactivities by government (House)Authority to open limited areas of the ArcticNational Wildlife Refuge to oil and natural gasexploration and development (House)A credit against royalties for preparingenvironmental analysis (House)A coalbed methane study (Senate)
INCENTIVESLimited royalty incentives for water depths400 meters and deeper (House)Offshore subsalt lease suspensions (Houseand Senate)A study of the impact of other incentivesfor the offshore (House)A study on the impact of financial incentiveson offshore/onshore production (Senate)
ROYALTY ISSUESA permanent royalty-in-kind program(House)Requirement to reduce royalties whenprices are low for onshore and offshoremarginal oil and natural gas wells(House)
ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUESA requirement for greenhouse gasemissions reporting (Senate)A requirement for the EPA to assessthe environmental risk of hydraulicfracturing and make a regulatory determination regarding whether federal regulation is necessary (Senate)
TAX REFORMSAmortization of delay rental paymentsover 24 months beginning with the monthexpenses incurred (Senate) $ 672 millionPermits delay rental costs to be expensed(House) $1,294 million over 10 yearsAllows the expensing of geological andgeophysical expenditures (House) $2,083 millionAmortization of G&G costs over 24 monthsbeginning with the month expenses incurred(Senate) $675 million
TAX REFORMSNatural gas gathering lines treated as7-year property for both regular andminimum tax purposes (includingdepreciation methods (House) $87 millionSame, but AMT depreciation methodsstill applicable (Senate) $87 million
TAX REFORMSProvides a marginal oil and gas wellproduction credit equal to $3/bbl ofoil and $.50/mcf of natural gas. Thecredit would begin to phase in at $18/bblof oil and $2.00/mcf of gas. Theproduction credit would be applicableagainst minimum tax and could be carriedback 10 years (House) No Revenue Effect
TAX REFORMSSame, except that no 10-year carry-back for unused credits. General one-year carryback would apply, except nocarryback permitted to a taxable yearending on or before date of enactment.Also, no language permitting applicationof credit against minimum tax (Senate) No Revenue Effect
TAX REFORMSTemporarily suspends 65 percent taxable income limitation on percentage depletion for marginal production through 12/31/06 (House) $ 862 millionExtension of suspension of 100 percent netincome limitation (from the property) formarginal production through 12/31/06 (House) $123 millionProvides five-year NOL carryback for lossesattributable to operating mineral interestsof independent oil and gas producers (House) $1,071 million
TAX REFORMSExtends and expands Section 29 productiontax credit (House) $ 2,661 millionProvides a $3.00 per barrel non-inflationadjusted credit for the production of qualifiednonconventional source fuels from new wellsdrilled or placed in service prior toJanuary 1, 2002 (Senate) $ 1,875 million
TAX REFORMSTemporarily repeals the AMT preference item for IDCs through 12/31/04 for independent producers (House) $ 24 millionTemporarily allows for EOR tax credit against AMT through 12/31/04 (House) $ 241 millionCountercyclical tax credit for Alaska natural gas with a recapture when the price exceeds 150 percent of the trigger price 3 years after the credit was triggered. The trigger price is $3.25/mcf on 1/01/10 at the AECOC Hub in Alberta, Canada (Senate) No Revenue Effect
TIMELINE OF ACTIONSept. 3Congress ReconvenesSept. 7 Rosh HashanahSept. 11Special Session in NYSept. 16Yom KippurSept. 16Target for StaffAgreements on Oil and Gas IssuesSept. 23Target for Member Agreementson Oil and Gas IssuesSept. 30Target for Agreementon BillOct. 4Target AdjournmentDateNov. 5ElectionDayLame DuckSession?
StatusConference issues are intertwined politically.Momentum is toward passage of a bill.Time is short with many hard decisions to be made quickly.
PLEASE CONTACTYOURSENATORS ANDREPRESENTATIVES
A Changing Paradigm
Informing the Electorate In 1980, 60% watched the evening news on the major networks. In 1996 only 25% still did.In 1976, 67% of Americans regularly read daily newspapers. Only 30% of those under 30 do today.In 1997, only 14% of Americans went online. In November 2000, nearly 50% were online.
Closest Margins in Recent HistoryControl of House decided by 5,959 votesSenate control decided by 0.09% of votes in WashingtonPresidency decided by 0.01% of votes in FloridaLess than 10,000 votes total made the difference in control of government.
Traditional political tools no longer work.
The Electorate
Chart17
0.270.310.620.71
Union Households
Working Women
Issue Voters
Shareholders
Sheet1
Union Households27%
Working Women31%
Issue Voters62%
Shareholders71%
Sheet1
Shareholders
Union Households
Working Women
Issue Voters
Electorate by Demographic Group
Sheet2
Union Households1.42
Non-Union Households0.9
Sheet2
0
0
Registration/Turnout Ratio
Sheet3
Have you heard from your employer or labor?
Who Is Most Credible?"Which organization do you feel can provide the most credible political information on issues and elections affecting your job, company and industry?"LaborUnions16%Nat'lPolitical Party27%Employer23%None Of These23%Don't Know/Refused11%LaborUnions22%Nat'lPolitical Party29%Employer28%None Of These17%Don't Know/Refused4%October 2000April 2002
Do you want to hear from your employer?16%11%6%15%51%31%29%14%12%17%Strongly want more infoSomewhat want more infoSomewhat doesn't trust employerStrongly doesn't trust employerNot Sure/RefusedWants More Information27%Doesn't Trust Employer22%*Wants More Information59%*Doesn't Trust Employer26%October 2000April 2002* Due to Rounding
The Prosperity ProjectFour steps to successIdentify issues that matter to your businessTell your employees how the issues affect themInform your employees where incumbents and candidates stand on these issuesHelp your employees register and get them to the polls
EMPLOYERS MUSTFOLLOW THROUGH WITH...Voter Registration DrivesAbsentee Ballot AcquisitionGet Out the Vote Drives
QUESTIONSCOMMENTS?