Meeting the Rural Resilience Imperative: Integrating ... · Leveraging Resources in Resilience...

28 May 2020

Meeting the Rural Resilience Imperative: Integrating Resilience

into Rural Planning & Action

WelcomeHousekeeping• Please mute

• Use the question function

• Recording will be posted on the Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange at www.CAKEx.org

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Gwen Griffith, DVM, MS

Program DirectorModel Forest Policy Program

Ned Gardiner, PhD U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit

Engagement Manager NOAA Climate Program Office

Today’s Speakers

Tell us about yourself

Go to menti.comEnter code 12 44 18

By Nicholas A. Tonelli Northeast Pennsylvania, USA

https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=6951488

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Outline

1. The Rural Resilience Imperative

2. Meeting Rural Needs and Priorities

3. Leveraging Resources in the Resilience Ecosystem

4. Opportunities to Participate

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The Rural Resilience Imperative

Rural Lands and Waters

Rural Agencies

Rural Economics

Rural Culture and Politics

8Imperative Priorities Leverage Participate

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RRAP

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Rural Resilience:

Environmental, Social, and Economic

• Air Quality

• Water Quality and Supply

• Land and Soil

• Food and Fiber

• Public Health

• Culture

• Recreation

• Wildlife Habitat

• Economic Systemshttps://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/

Enviro-Atlas eco-wheel by Jessica Jahre, EPA Contractor

Imperative Priorities Leverage Participate

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/

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Extreme Weather Impacts

Current impacts and future risks (including climate) to natural resources and rural communities are escalating rapidly.

There is an environmental, social, and economic imperative for rural resilience to address these hazards and impacts. Bigstock 5411312

Bigstock 84161099


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❑ Increased natural disasters❑ Reduced agricultural productivity❑Degradation of soil and water resources ❑ Loss of natural habitat, recreation, livelihoods ❑Health challenges - people, livestock, wildlife❑Damaged infrastructure ❑ Economic consequences at all levels ❑ Vulnerability of rural communities

Extreme Weather Hazards to Natural Resources and Rural Communities

Heat – Drought - Flood – Severe Storms - Wildfire – Pests – Disease


Fourth National Climate Assessment, Vol II — Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United Statesnca2018.globalchange.gov 12

https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/agriculture-rural and NCEI Billion Dollar DisastersImperative How to.. Leverage Participate

Extreme Precipitation Events 1910-2017

Percent of Land Area Affected

Severe Storms – Total Costs in Billions of $ 1980-2018

Total Costs of Billion Dollar Disasters 1980-2019

Imperative Priorities Leverage

2010-2019: unprecedented decade of damage

• Last year (2019) > $45 billion • Last 3 years (2017-2019) > $460 billion • Last 5 years (1-15-2019) > $535 billion

Participate

Billion-Dollar DisastersAverage Annual Cost (by decade since 1980)


Agricultural Productivity – Projected Percentage Change in Yield 2080-2099

Ch. 7 | Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity

https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/ecosystems



Population Changes and Poverty Rates in Rural Countieshttps://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/ecosystems


Mitigation Saves: Positive Benefit Cost Ratios (BCR)

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https://cdn.ymaws.com/www.nibs.org/resource/resmgr/docs/NIBS_MitigationSaves_Interim.pdf

https://www.nibs.org/page/mitigationsaves

https://www.nibs.org/page/mitigationsaves

Value of Open Space in Middle Tennessee

www.cumberlandregiontomorrow.org

http://www.cumberlandregiontomorrow.org/

https://www.cakex.org/documents/understanding-rural-attitudes-toward-environment-and-conservation-america

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"Rural Americans matter—a lot—to the fate of U.S. environmental policy. Not only do farmers, ranchers, and forest owners manage huge portions of American lands and watersheds, but rural voters also have an outsized impact on national policy.”

https://www.cakex.org/documents/understanding-rural-attitudes-toward-environment-and-conservation-america

Rural Attitudes and Framing:Overall Caring & Knowledgeable

q Prefer local and state gov’t oversight. Trust other farmers & ranchers, university scientists, & agency scientists

q Recognize impacts of severe weather

q Appreciate being engaged in the dialogue


q View federal government as ineffective and potentially corrupt

q Skeptical of climate & agriculture connections

q Concerned about climate regulations

Who

What

How

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Estimated % of adults who think global warming is already harming people in the US now or within 10 years, 2018

https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/ycom-us/

https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/ycom-us/

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Outline



3. Leveraging Resources in the Resilience Ecosystem


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Meeting Rural Needs Rural communities have specific needs, gaps, and constraints that are obstacles to resilience.

Understanding rural priorities and needs is key to success.


GOALThe Resilient Rural America Project (RRAP) accelerates rural resilience by understanding rural needs and priorities, co-producing training resources, and strengthening the ability of resilience service providers to meet the needs of underserved rural communities.

GAPSAddress lack of staff, resources, and technical capacityPromote focus, coordination, synergy, and efficiency

ACTION Collaboration and co-production of training module series


Co-Production Process:

❑ Collaboration

❑ User Input

❑ Recruit Beta Testers and Advisors

❑ Update Module Periodically


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▪ 30% have adopted a sustainability plan; less than 4% have a climate mitigation and/or adaptation plan

▪ 50% lack any sustainability staff, task force, goals, or committees

▪ 77% have experienced a major disaster in the last 15 years (flooding + winter storms most common)

▪ Biggest motivations of sustainability efforts: fiscal savings, local electeds, funding opportunities

▪ Biggest barriers: funds/funding restrictions, staff capacity & information

ICMA 2015 Sustainability Research576 Nonmetro Local Governments


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178 Rural Users❑ Who works on resilience❑ Local risks and impacts❑ Status of actions❑ Support needed❑ Training preferences

Initial RRAP Surveys

56 Service Providers❑ Top risks❑Gaps in capacity for rural communities & providers ❑ Effective strategies❑ Leads on resources and funding sources


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Perception of Current Local Climate Risks

Severe: 6%

none moderatemild


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Current Status of Resilience Efforts (n=178)

none moderate

Storms & floods

Heat & drought

Wildfire HealthWater resources

Ag / forestry

Wildlife Sea level rise

Water plays a major role in every category of extreme

weather hazards.


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Current Status of Resilience Efforts - Storms and Floods (n=178)

none moderate


What climate-related hazards concern you?


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RRAP

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RRAP Survey Findings

❑ Extreme weather top risk

❑ Flexible self-guided learning with time limits

❑ Integrate resilience into existing comprehensive and hazard mitigation plans

❑ Use actionable information

❑ Identified advisors and beta testers


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Resilient Rural America Project (RRAP)

RRAP Module #1:

Rural Resilience to Extreme Weather: Integrating Land Use Strategies in Comprehensive Plans

Project information:www.mfpp.org/rrap

Module coming soon to…… www.resilientruralamerica.org


http://www.mfpp.org/rrap

http://www.resilientruralamerica.org/

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Outline



3. Leveraging Resources in Resilience Ecosystem


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● Begin where you are in your planning ● Online training module● > 100 page Workbook of step-by-step instructions ● Links to literature, tools, resources from partners● Worksheets to guide you through critical decisions● Aligned with U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit Steps to Resilience


RRAP Module #01: Rural Resilience to Extreme Weather: Integrating Land Use Strategies in Comprehensive Plans

Streamlined Training and Planning within RRAP

1. Prepare 2. Explore Hazards3. Assess Vulnerability & Risk4. Identify Options for Action 5. Update Comprehensive Plan6. Take Action on Resilience Strategies

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RRAP

Steps to Resilience


https://toolkit.climate.gov/

Have you watched the Steps to Resilience videos on the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit?


Explore Hazards

Imperative Priorities Leverage Participatehttps://toolkit.climate.gov/steps-to-resilience/explore-hazards

https://toolkit.climate.gov/steps-to-resilience/explore-hazards

Team Building and Support

https://pnwcirc.org/science/socialscience Imperative Priorities Leverage Participate

https://pnwcirc.org/science/socialscience

Climate ExplorerCounty-level downscaled projections (Ada County, ID depicted here)


https://crt-climate-explorer.nemac.org/Tutorial: https://arcg.is/15mvy80

https://crt-climate-explorer.nemac.org/

Does extreme weather represent a hazard to assets you value?


Assess Vulnerability and Risk

Imperative Priorities Leverage Participatehttps://toolkit.climate.gov/steps-to-resilience/assess-vulnerability-risks

https://toolkit.climate.gov/steps-to-resilience/assess-vulnerability-risks

https://toolkit.climate.gov/steps-to-resilience/assess-vulnerability-risks

Sensitivity: timing of planting, fertilizer application, harvesting , fallow, …


Can you accept the risk that climate presents to your assets?


Investigate Options

Imperative Priorities Leverage Participatehttps://toolkit.climate.gov/steps-to-resilience/investigate-options

https://toolkit.climate.gov/steps-to-resilience/investigate-options

REDUCE EXPOSURE

REDUCE SENSITIVITY

BUILD ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

IMPROVE RESPONSE AND RECOVERY

Identify options that target different aspects of vulnerability and risk (brainstorm)


Adaptive capacity: silviculture and

understory management (e.g., controlled burn)

Imperative Priorities Leverage ParticipateSource: National Park Service

Adaptive Capacity: riparian zones

Imperative Priorities Leverage ParticipateCreator: Lynn BettsSource: NRCS

http://photogallery.nrcs.usda.gov/Index.asp

Are your active stakeholders committed to your plan?


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Prioritize & Plan

Imperative Priorities Leverage Participatehttps://toolkit.climate.gov/steps-to-resilience/prioritize-plan

https://toolkit.climate.gov/steps-to-resilience/prioritize-plan

Integrate Resilient Land Use into Comprehensive Plan

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GOAL: Recommend policy updates with prioritized resilient land use strategies

PROCESS: Analyze each comprehensive plan element for potential climate resilience objectives

Land use is a FEMA Priority 1 Hazard Mitigation Strategy for both Floods and WUI Wildfire Resilience


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Comp Plan Elements

1. Existing conditions2. Goals and objectives3. Implementation 4. Future land use maps

Optional elements● Housing● Water● Transportation● Environment● Health ● Infrastructure● etc.


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Analytical Worksheets to Guide Strategy Development

❖ Comp Plan Elements & Climate Impacts

❖ Extreme Weather Implications

❖Goals and Policy Updates for each Element


❖ Comp Plan Elements & Climate Impacts

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PLAN ELEMENT IMPACTS

Temperature Precipitation Sea Level RiseWater Resources

Higher temps increase water demand

More intense rainfall increases stormwater volume

Increase risk of saltwater intrusion

Increased evaporation

More flooding events Increased shoreline erosion

Reduce water quality

Reduced water quality Reduced water quality


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IMPACT PLAN ELEMENT Land Use Implications

Precipitation:Changing patterns and extremes, long duration and greater intensity

Changing patterns may affect function of infrastructure: · Stormwater inundation and localized flooding· Chronic nuisance floods, erosion, landslides· Increased maintenance needed

Changing patterns and extreme cause shifts in vegetation types and habitat

Groundwater recharge diminished and further reduced by impervious surfaces

❖ Extreme Weather Implications


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PLAN ELEMENT

Actions that Support Mitigation

Actions that Support Adaptation

Implementation / Toolkit Actions

Land Use Conserve energy and ecosystem functions by preventing sprawl

Locate all new growth outside of hazard zones

Develop a certificate for resilient land use criteria to fulfill: · Identify lands suitable for

development · Align with hazard mitigation

plans · Promote compact development

patterns

❖ Goals and Policy Updates for each Element


Will your plan protect what you value?


Take Action on Comprehensive Plan

Imperative Priorities Leverage Participatehttps://toolkit.climate.gov/steps-to-resilience/take-action

https://toolkit.climate.gov/steps-to-resilience/take-action

Does your county address resilience?


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Outline



3. Leveraging Resources in Resilience Ecosystem


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Action and Outcomes for Resilience Integration

q Planning provision changes

q Policy/codes/ordinance changes

q On-the-ground practice changes

q Budget / investment changes

q Measurable environmental changes

q Socioeconomic changes

q Learning, attitude, behavior changes

q Other outcomes?


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RRAP Module #2. Rural Resilience to Extreme Weather: Implementing Resilient Land Use Strategies

Goal: Translate resilient land use strategies into action

Potential module training topics are under review

Visit www.mfpp.org/rrap to take the survey



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Potential Action Topics● Planning– comprehensive plans, hazard mitigation plans, regional open space

plans, etc.● Regulatory– zoning, floodplains, building codes, setbacks, development

regulations, rebuilding restrictions, subdivision rules, armoring permits, coastal management

● Finance, Tax, & Markets– incentives, TDRs, capital improvement programs, acquisitions & buyouts, conservation easements (static or rolling)

● Natural Resource Management– regenerative agriculture, sustainable forestry, soil restoration, green infrastructure, etc.

● Communications – Engagement, outreach, & messaging


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RRAP Module #2: Rural Resilience to Extreme Weather: Implementing Resilient Land Use Strategies

Co-production in progress now: User & Advisor Survey RequestBeta Testers InvitedProject Advisors Invited

www.mfpp.org/rrap


https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/VXCVTGV


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Invitation to Participate

Share a rural resilience story:

Take a photo of favorite or important rural location

Send the photo along with your rural story.Help us build a photo gallery of rural stories that matter.

• Where was the photo taken?• Why is this special to you? • Are their extreme weather impacts at this location? • Is this a story of resilience in action?

Visit www.mfpp.org/rrap. 68Imperative Priorities Leverage Participate


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Invitation to Participate

1. Learn more about Resilient Rural America Project (RRAP)

2. Complete the RRAP #1 Training Module

3. Take the RRAP #2 Survey

4. Participate as Beta Tester or Project Advisor

5. Share your rural resilience photo and story

Visit www.mfpp.org/rrap


https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/VXCVTGV


By Nicholas A. Tonelli Northeast Pennsylvania, USA

https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=6951488

Collaboration and Co-Production of Training Module

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Rural Beta Testers & Project Advisors

Two rounds of funding

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THANK YOU!

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Ned Gardiner, PhDNOAA Climate Program Office

[email protected]

Gwen Griffith, DVM, MSModel Forest Policy Program

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

https://toolkit.climate.gov/

mailto:[email protected]

Questions?

All webinars are announced on social media:@AdaptationForum

Thanks for joining us!

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