Mega-trendsandtheFutureofAfricanEconomies
T.S.Jayne,Lulama Traub,FelixYeboah,MiluMuyanga,JordanChamberlin
PresentationtoMSUFoundationBoardofDirectors, MichiganStateUniversity
August 15,2017
Sixmajortrends
Trend#1
The“YouthBulge”
LoomingemploymentchallengeinSSA
4-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
[0-4]
[5-9]
[10-14]
[15-19]
[20-24]
[25-29]
[30-34]
[35-39]
[40-44]
[45-49]
[50-54]
[55-59]
[60-64]
[65-69]
[70-74]
[75-79]
[80+]
Agepyramid:ruralSSA,2015 Male
Female
62% < 25 years old
5Source:UN2013
China
India
OtherSouthAsia
South-EastAsia
SSA
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
TotalRuralPopulation(millions)
Trend#2
Peopleenteringlaborforce>wagejobsbeingcreated
MostAfricanswillremainreliantonfarming!
Jobsbysector,Sub-SaharanAfrica
7Source: World Bank (Filmer and Fox), 2014
Milli
on p
eopl
e
Jobsbysector,Sub-SaharanAfrica
8Source: World Bank (Filmer and Fox), 2014
Milli
on p
eopl
e
010
000
2000
030
000
Tota
l per
sons
em
ploy
ed (i
n th
ousa
nds)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year
Agriculture MiningManufacturing Public sectorBusiness/trade Others
Ethiopia
Employmenttrends:Ethiopia
Source:GroningenGrowthandDevelopmentCentre,2014
Employmenttrends:Tanzania0
5000
1000
015
000
Tota
l per
sons
em
ploy
ed (i
n th
ousa
nds)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year
Agriculture MiningManufacturing Public sectorBusiness/trade Others
Tanzania
Source:GGDC,2014
Employmenttrends:Senegal
050
010
0015
0020
0025
00To
tal p
erso
ns e
mpl
oyed
(in
thou
sand
s)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year
Agriculture MiningManufacturing Public sectorBusiness/trade Others
Senegal
Source:GGDC,2014
Employmenttrends:China0
1000
0020
0000
3000
0040
0000
Tota
l per
sons
em
ploy
ed (i
n th
ousa
nds)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year
Agriculture MiningManufacturing Public sectorBusiness/trade Others
China
Source:GGDC,2014
Employmenttrends:Ghana
010
0020
0030
0040
00To
tal p
erso
ns e
mpl
oyed
(in
thou
sand
s)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year
Agriculture MiningManufacturing Public sectorBusiness/trade Others
Ghana
Source:GGDC,2014
Trend#3
Foodconsumptionoutstrippingproduction
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80B
illi
ons
of C
onst
ant $
2004
-06 Asia
AfricaOth. Dev.W. EuropeE. Europe&C. AsiaDev. OceaniaN. AmericaLat. Am.&Car.
TheAmericasareincreasinglytheworld’sfoodbasket
Source: FAOSTAT, thanks to Holger Mathey
Trend#4
MajorscrambleforAfrica’sarableland
Ninecountriescontain90%ofAfrica’sunutilizedarableland
18
Non-forestedunutilizedland1
(millionha)Proportion
CumulativeProportion
DRC 84.8 46.5% 46.5%Angola 18.9 10.4% 56.9%Congo 12.9 7.1% 63.9%Zambia 10.8 5.9% 69.9%Cameroon 10.5 5.7% 75.6%Mozambique 9.0 4.9% 80.5%CAR 7.1 3.9% 84.4%Gabon 6.5 3.6% 88.0%Sudan 5.8 3.2% 91.2%RestofAfrica(n=45) 8.8% 100.0%
• Meteoricriseofmedium-scalefarms
20
Table 2: Changes in farm structure among small- and medium-scale farmers in Zambia (2009 - 2012)
Landholding size Category
Number of farms % change
(2001-2012)
% of total farmland
Share of landholding
2001* 2009 2012 2009 2012 cultivated (2012)
0 – 2 ha 638,118 916,787 748,771 17.3% 24.1% 16.2% 91.2% 2 – 5 ha 159,039 366,628 418,544 163.2% 33.8% 31.7% 66.4% 5 – 10 ha 20,832 110,436 165,129 692.6% 20.3% 25.0% 49.5% 10 – 20 ha 2,352 35,898 53,454 2272.7% 12.3% 15.0% 36.7% 20 – 100 ha -- 9,030 13,839 53.3%** 9.5% 12.0% 10.9%
Total 820,341 1,438,779 1,399,737 70.6% 100.0% 100.0%
Source: Ministry of Agriculture Crop Forecast Surveys, 2009, 2012. *2001 figures are land under cultivation. ** Growth rate computed from 2009-2012 only. “na” means not available.
21
Table 2: Changes in farm structure among small- and medium-scale farmers in Zambia (2009 - 2012)
Landholding size Category
Number of farms % change
(2001-2012)
% of total farmland
Share of landholding
2001* 2009 2012 2009 2012 cultivated (2012)
0 – 2 ha 638,118 916,787 748,771 17.3% 24.1% 16.2% 91.2% 2 – 5 ha 159,039 366,628 418,544 163.2% 33.8% 31.7% 66.4% 5 – 10 ha 20,832 110,436 165,129 692.6% 20.3% 25.0% 49.5% 10 – 20 ha 2,352 35,898 53,454 2272.7% 12.3% 15.0% 36.7% 20 – 100 ha -- 9,030 13,839 53.3%** 9.5% 12.0% 10.9%
Total 820,341 1,438,779 1,399,737 70.6% 100.0% 100.0%
Source: Ministry of Agriculture Crop Forecast Surveys, 2009, 2012. *2001 figures are land under cultivation. ** Growth rate computed from 2009-2012 only. “na” means not available.
Participationinoutputmarkets
22Source:MACOCFS2000/1to2010/11andauthors’computations
Largestsmallholderfarms(9%)consistentlydoingbetter
MajorQuestion:
Israpidlandacquisitionbymedium/largefarmsforeclosingsmallholder-basedagricultural
development?
23
Six‘megatrends’:Recap
1. Youthbulge
2. Numberofyoungpeopleenteringlaborforceoutstrippinggrowthinwagejobsà risingimportanceof‘viable’agriculture
3. Foodconsumptionoutstrippingproduction
4. Risinglandscarcity
5. Landdegradation(notaddressedhere)
6. Climatechange(notaddressedhere)
Majormessage:
• Don’tacceptallthese“megatrends”asinevitable
– Sometrendsarehighlyuncertain,beingdependentonthetimepathofothertrends
– Policy caninfluencethetrajectoriesofsomeofthem/otherslessso
Stylizedfact:
Astylizedfactisoftenabroadgeneralizationthatsummarizessomecomplicatedstatisticalrelationship,whichalthoughessentiallytrue,mayhaveinaccuraciesinthedetail.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stylized_fact