16
Melbourne Residential Overview Annabel McFarlane Anthony Ferraro November 2016
Melbourne Residential Overview Annabel McFarlane
Anthony Ferraro
November 2016
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
Jan-
1990
Jan-
1991
Jan-
1992
Jan-
1993
Jan-
1994
Jan-
1995
Jan-
1996
Jan-
1997
Jan-
1998
Jan-
1999
Jan-
2000
Jan-
2001
Jan-
2002
Jan-
2003
Jan-
2004
Jan-
2005
Jan-
2006
Jan-
2007
Jan-
2008
Jan-
2009
Jan-
2010
Jan-
2011
Jan-
2012
Jan-
2013
Jan-
2014
Jan-
2015
Gross Value Added by sector
ManufacturingConstructionRetail tradeProfessional, scientific and technical servicesEducation and trainingHealth care and social assistanceFinancial and insurance services
A strong and diverse economy
1
Victoria State Final Demand increased 4.0% in the year to June 2016, outperforming all other states
Source: JLL Research, Deloitte Access Economics, ABS
NSW32%
VIC 25%
QLD20%
SA6%
WA13%
ACT4%
Domestic Final Demand State (%)
NSW VIC Qld SA WA ACT
Highest number of full time jobs created Jobs created and job vacancies in Australia August 2016
Source: JLL Research, ABS
108
45
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NSW VIC QLD SA WA ACT
'000
s
Number of Jobs Created (year end SEPT 2016) Job Vacancies as at August 16
Victoria is Australia’s fastest growing state (+ 1.9% p.a)
3
Components of population growth
Source: JLL Research, ABS
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000M
ar-1
996
Mar
-199
7
Mar
-199
8
Mar
-199
9
Mar
-200
0
Mar
-200
1
Mar
-200
2
Mar
-200
3
Mar
-200
4
Mar
-200
5
Mar
-200
6
Mar
-200
7
Mar
-200
8
Mar
-200
9
Mar
-201
0
Mar
-201
1
Mar
-201
2
Mar
-201
3
Mar
-201
4
Mar
-201
5
Mar
-201
6
Ann
ual p
opul
atio
n gr
owth
(%
)
Num
ber
of n
ew r
esid
ents
(an
nual
)
Natural Increase Net Overseas Migration Net Interstate Migration Population Growth y-y
The ABS Forecasts Greater Melbournes population to increase by an average of 107,000 new residents per
year from 2016-2030, to overtake Sydney at 6.12 million as Australia’s largest city
Melbourne -2.3 million visitors in 2015
4
International visitor numbers increased 14% in Melbourne in 2015, above 12.9% in Brisbane and
6.3% in Sydney
Source: Tourism Australia
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
May
-200
6
Feb
-200
7
Nov
-200
7
Aug
-200
8
May
-200
9
Feb
-201
0
Nov
-201
0
Aug
-201
1
May
-201
2
Feb
-201
3
Nov
-201
3
Aug
-201
4
May
-201
5
Feb
-201
6
Short Term Visitors by State
NSW Victoria Queensland
The worlds most liveable city for the 6th consecutive year
5
A hub for education, infrastructure, healthcare, stability and environment
• Infrastructure
• Education
• Healthcare
• Stability
• Environment
Victoria’s international student enrolment numbers
6
110,420 international students (commenced in 2015)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Aus
tral
ian
Tota
l Int
erna
tiona
l com
men
cem
ents
Sta
te n
umbe
r of
com
ence
men
ts
Higher Education International commencements
Australia NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT
All education
commencementsVIC
Chinese commencements of
(YTD 2015) – all educational
commencements
29%
31, 500
Source: Australian government
department of education and training
7
Innovation themesMonash Precinct: The Monash Employment cluster
Occupier Address
Fortune 500
Rank / ASX /
Origin
Sector
Johnson & Johnson6-8 Compark Circuit,
Mulgrave
37 US Pharmaceutic
als
Bristol-Myers
Squibb
4 Nexus Court, Mulgrave 195 US Pharmaceutic
als
Lockheed Martin307 Ferntree Gully Road,
Mount Waverley
64 US Aerospace
and Defence.
General Cable
205 Forster Road & 501
Blackburn Road, Mount
Waverley
443 USElectronics
and Electrical
QBE540 Springvale Road, Glen
Waverley
ASX AUSInsurance
MYOB235 Springvale Road, Glen
Waverley
ASX AUS Accounting
Software
Lycopodium Limited245 Wellington Road,
Mulgrave
ASX AUSEngineering
Godfreys540 Springvale Road, Glen
Waverley
ASX AUSRetail
McPherson’s540 Springvale Road, Glen
Waverley
ASX AUS Consumer
retail
Concentration of leading education, health and
research facilities
• Monash University:
• Australia’s largest university
• Group of 8
• Top 5 ranking in Australia
• Top 50 in the world for clinical and pre-
clinical health and engineering and
technology
• Australian Synchrotron and CSIRO’s largest
site in Victoria.
• New Monash Children’s Hospital at Clayton, to
be completed in early 2017
8
Melbourne offers relative affordability -23% cheaper for a Chinese buyer to buy a Melbourne apartment today than it was 5 years ago, compared to 0.32% for the average Sydney apartment
Source: JLL Research
Greater Melbourne Greater Sydney
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
200.00Index: 100 = Sep 2005
AUD SGD CNY
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
200.00
Index: 100 = Sep 2005
AUD SGD CNY
% change price
from 2Q14
AUD +4.3%
SGD -11.1%
CNY -12%
% change price
from 2Q14
AUD +19.5%
SGD +1.9%
CNY +0.9%
9
Low interest rate environment good for loan booksLarge banks non-performing loan rate by type
Non-performing loans International comparison
Source: APRA, RBA
Non
per
form
ing
loan
s (%
of l
oans
)
Non
per
form
ing
loan
s (%
of l
oans
)
10
Chinese HNWI to drive residential and retailChinese household income by category, constant 2012 $US prices
Source: JLL Research, Oxford Economics, National Bureau of Statistics China
0
100
200
300
400
500
60020
05
2010
2015
2020
2025
Nu
mb
er o
f h
ou
seh
old
s (m
illio
ns)
Low income ($0 - $10,000) Middle income ($10,001 - $70,000) High income ($70,001+)
Forecast →
17.4%
66.2%0.1%
3.4%
82.5%
30.4%
Annual household income (US$)
High – 0.41 million
Middle – 66.40 million
Low – 315.72 million
High – 17.43 million
Middle – 339.90 million
Low – 156.09 million
High – 4.04 million
Middle – 192.93 million
Low – 240.70 million
11
Blackburn
South
Apartment Price growth over the past decade
12
Blackburn South median unit price in the 10 years to June 2016 has increased from $317 K $780.5K
Blackburn South
$780,500
144.3%
Whitehorse LGA
$660,000
102.5%
Greater Melbourne
$485,000
66.7%
Source: CoreLogic RP Data
13
Blackburn South – A family communityHousehold type - Number of Private Occupied private dwellings
71.63%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Couple - NoChildren
Couple - Children One ParentFamilies
Other FamilyHouseholds
Total - FamilyHouseholds
Lone Person Group Households Other Households
% o
f priv
ate
occu
pied
priv
ate
dwel
lings
Blackburn South
• Close to the highly reputable school zone
• Good medical facilities
• Monash University
• Box Hill Shopping Precinct
• Close proximity to transport nodes
14
Blackburn Train Station
CBD 16km
Glen Waverly Secondary College
Monash University
Box Hill Central
Blackburn South / BlackburnA convenient Suburb in Melbourne’s East
13 minutes drive
Box Hill High School
Deakin University
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE 2016
Thank you
Annabel McFarlane
Associate Director
Strategic Research - Victoria
+61 3 9672 6683
@JLLAustralia youtube.com/jll linkedin.com/company/jll jllapsites.com/research
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2016
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