METROPOLITAN WASHINGTON COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS 777 NORTH CAPITOL STREET NE, SUITE 300, WASHINGTON, DC 20002 MWCOG.ORG/TPB (202) 962-3200 MEMORANDUM TO: Mark S. Moran, Manager, Model Development, COG/TPB FROM: Meseret Seifu, Principal Transportation Engineer, COG/TPB SUBJECT: Transmittal Package: TPB Ver. 2.3.75 Travel Demand Forecasting Model, Transportation Networks, and Land Use Data Associated with the Air Quality Conformity Analysis of Visualize 2045 DATE: December 6, 2018 Xmittal_Ver2.3.75_model_and_inputs_v2.docx PURPOSE This memorandum documents a transmittal package containing the latest National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (TPB) production-use travel demand forecasting model (Ver. 2.3.75) and its associated input files (networks and land use data) from the Air Quality Conformity (AQC) Analysis of the Constrained Element of the 2018 update of the TPB’s Long-Range Transportation Plan (LRTP), known as Visualize 2045, and the FY 2019-2024 Transportation Improvement Program (TIP). CONTENT OF THE MODEL TRANSMITTAL PACKAGE Model: The TPB’s production-use travel demand forecasting model (Ver. 2.3.75), which is a member of a family of travel models, known as Ver. 2.3. Each model in the Ver. 2.3 family is an aggregate, trip-based, “four-step” travel demand model covering a modeled area of 6,800 square miles and 3722 Transportation Analysis Zones (TAZs). The Ver. 2.3 travel model was calibrated to year-2007 conditions in 2012 1 and validated to year-2010 conditions in 2013. 2 The model is updated on a regular basis (typically annually) and the most recent model is documented in an updated travel model user’s guide. 3 Transportation Networks: The AQC analysis was conducted for the six forecast years (2019, 2021, 2025, 2030, 2040, and 2045), so this transmittal package includes transportation networks representing those years. It is expected that these networks will be documented by February 2019. The networks associated with last year’s transmittal package can be found on the web. 4 1 Ronald Milone et al., “Calibration Report for the TPB Travel Forecasting Model, Version 2.3, on the 3,722- Zone Area System,” Final Report (Washington, D.C.: Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board, January 20, 2012), https://www.mwcog.org/transportation/data-and-tools/modeling/model-documentation/. 2 Ronald Milone to Files, “2010 Validation of the Version 2.3 Travel Demand Model,” Memorandum, June 30, 2013. 3 Ray Ngo et al., “User’s Guide for the COG/TPB Travel Demand Forecasting Model, Version 2.3.75: Volume 1 of 2: Main Report and Appendix A (Flowcharts)” (Washington, D.C.: Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board, December 5, 2018), https://www.mwcog.org/transportation/data-and-tools/modeling/model-documentation/. 4 “Highway and Transit Networks from the VDOT and MDOT Off-Cycle Amendment to the 2016 CLRP (TPB Version 2.3.70 Travel Model),” Draft Report (Washington, D.C.: Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board, June 15, 2018), https://www.mwcog.org/transportation/data-and-tools/modeling/model-documentation/.
Transcript
METROPOLITAN WASHINGTON COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS 777 NORTH CAPITOL STREET NE, SUITE 300, WASHINGTON, DC 20002 MWCOG.ORG/TPB (202) 962-3200
MEMORANDUM
TO: Mark S. Moran, Manager, Model Development, COG/TPB FROM: Meseret Seifu, Principal Transportation Engineer, COG/TPB SUBJECT: Transmittal Package: TPB Ver. 2.3.75 Travel Demand Forecasting Model, Transportation
Networks, and Land Use Data Associated with the Air Quality Conformity Analysis of Visualize 2045
DATE: December 6, 2018 Xmittal_Ver2.3.75_model_and_inputs_v2.docx
PURPOSE This memorandum documents a transmittal package containing the latest National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (TPB) production-use travel demand forecasting model (Ver. 2.3.75) and its associated input files (networks and land use data) from the Air Quality Conformity (AQC) Analysis of the Constrained Element of the 2018 update of the TPB’s Long-Range Transportation Plan (LRTP), known as Visualize 2045, and the FY 2019-2024 Transportation Improvement Program (TIP).
CONTENT OF THE MODEL TRANSMITTAL PACKAGE Model: The TPB’s production-use travel demand forecasting model (Ver. 2.3.75), which is a member of a family of travel models, known as Ver. 2.3. Each model in the Ver. 2.3 family is an aggregate, trip-based, “four-step” travel demand model covering a modeled area of 6,800 square miles and 3722 Transportation Analysis Zones (TAZs). The Ver. 2.3 travel model was calibrated to year-2007 conditions in 20121 and validated to year-2010 conditions in 2013.2 The model is updated on a regular basis (typically annually) and the most recent model is documented in an updated travel model user’s guide.3
Transportation Networks: The AQC analysis was conducted for the six forecast years (2019, 2021, 2025, 2030, 2040, and 2045), so this transmittal package includes transportation networks representing those years. It is expected that these networks will be documented by February 2019. The networks associated with last year’s transmittal package can be found on the web.4
1 Ronald Milone et al., “Calibration Report for the TPB Travel Forecasting Model, Version 2.3, on the 3,722-Zone Area System,” Final Report (Washington, D.C.: Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board, January 20, 2012), https://www.mwcog.org/transportation/data-and-tools/modeling/model-documentation/. 2 Ronald Milone to Files, “2010 Validation of the Version 2.3 Travel Demand Model,” Memorandum, June 30, 2013. 3 Ray Ngo et al., “User’s Guide for the COG/TPB Travel Demand Forecasting Model, Version 2.3.75: Volume 1 of 2: Main Report and Appendix A (Flowcharts)” (Washington, D.C.: Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board, December 5, 2018), https://www.mwcog.org/transportation/data-and-tools/modeling/model-documentation/. 4 “Highway and Transit Networks from the VDOT and MDOT Off-Cycle Amendment to the 2016 CLRP (TPB Version 2.3.70 Travel Model),” Draft Report (Washington, D.C.: Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board, June 15, 2018), https://www.mwcog.org/transportation/data-and-tools/modeling/model-documentation/.
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Land Use Data: TAZ-level land-use data from Round 9.1 of the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments’ (COG’s) Cooperative Forecasting program. Employment data for some jurisdictions has been adjusted to ensure that a consistent definition is used across the entire modeled area. Details can be found in a recent memo.5
Additional Information: The travel modeling inputs, methods and results were approved by the National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (TPB) on October 17, 2018.
For quality control purposes, staff has executed all modeling scenarios twice to ensure that the model results can be replicated. Staff has also updated the travel model user’s guide, mentioned earlier, so that recent updates are explained. Compared to the model that was used in last year’s AQC analysis (Ver. 2.3.70), there have been four updates to the model (Ver. 2.3.75), which are listed in the latest user’s guide. The two main model updates were
1. We have streamlined the way that HOT-lance facilities are modeled by removing the High-Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) Highway Skim Replacement (HSR) procedure from the model. The elimination helps reduce model run times. For example, in model application (after toll setting has already been accomplished), the model no longer needs two runs per alternative/year (i.e., “base” and “final”). Now, only one run per alternative/year is needed (i.e., “final”).
2. We have removed the Metrorail constraint to and through the regional core, as per a policy change by the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA), resulting from new dedicated funding for transit. TPB approved the removal of Metrorail constraint from the model on May 16, 2018. Therefore, the model runs for the scenarios after 2020 will no longer require the transit constraint information from the 2020 model run.
Details can be found in the travel model user’s guide.
The latest model and network documentation can generally be found on the following webpage:
A complete listing of all transit and highway projects assumed in Visualize 2045 and the FY 2019-2024 TIP can be found in Appendix B of the Air Quality Conformity report (pages B-37-B-68).6
To request the model, interested parties should follow the procedures listed on the Data Requests webpage:
The travel modeling inputs and application files are organized in a structured subdirectory system shown in Table 1. The subdirectories are organized by Cube Voyager scripts, inputs, and supporting application files. Note that the model application requires Cube Voyager software ver. 6.4.1, which is not included in the transmittal package. Also, note that the model outputs are not included with
5 Hamid Humeida and Ray Ngo to Mark S. Moran et al., “Developing Land Use Input Files for the Version 2.3 Travel Model Using Round 9.1 Cooperative Forecasts and the CTPP-Based Employment Adjustment Factors (Update and Corrections by Ray Ngo, 10/25/18),” Memorandum, October 25, 2018. 6 “Air Quality Conformity Analysis, Visualize 2045, A Long-Range Transportation Plan for the National Capital Region” (Washington, D.C.: National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board, Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, October 17, 2018), https://www.mwcog.org/documents/2018/10/17/visualize-2045-air-quality-conformity-analysis/.
this transmittal, due to their large size (~25 GB), but specific output files can be made available upon request.
Table 1 Version 2.3.75 Model Application Subdirectories
The rest of the memo includes:
1. Notes on applying the model; 2. Notes on additional documentation; 3. A listing of model inputs and application files; and 4. Control totals resulting from a full application of the model.
APPLYING THE MODEL
The Version 2.3.75 model application is applied using a series of prepared batch files that operate within the above subdirectory system. The following batch filenames may be used to execute the model for years 2019, 2021, 2025, 2030, 2040, or 2045 (the filename shown is entered at the command prompt in the “root” subdirectory):
As noted in the user’s guide (pp. 39), the automated procedure to generate transit walksheds and calculate the percent of each zone within walking distance to transit service has now been turned off by default and the output areawalk.txt files are provided in the “Inputs” subdirectory.
Further details about how the model is structured and how to set up your computer for running the model are provided in the relevant chapters of the user’s guide:
Subdirectories Bytes # Files Subdirectory Description\CGV2_3_75_Visualize2045_CLRP_Xmittal 274,484 50 Batch Files for model execution\CGV2_3_75_Visualize2045_CLRP_Xmittal\controls 329,951 9 Control files for special programs\CGV2_3_75_Visualize2045_CLRP_Xmittal\scripts 1,332,078 60 Cube/Voyager script files\CGV2_3_75_Visualize2045_CLRP_Xmittal\software 2,611,179 5 Software executable programs\CGV2_3_75_Visualize2045_CLRP_Xmittal\support 147,143,869 30 Model support / parameter files\CGV2_3_75_Visualize2045_CLRP_Xmittal\Assignment_Summary 26,107 4 Model summary scripts\CGV2_3_75_Visualize2045_CLRP_Xmittal\Summary 275,895 11 Model summary scripts\CGV2_3_75_Visualize2045_CLRP_Xmittal\Docums 22,355,714 5 Documentation\CGV2_3_75_Visualize2045_CLRP_Xmittal\TPBTAZ3722_TPBMod 27,755,101 14 GIS shape file of the 3,722-zone system\CGV2_3_75_Visualize2045_CLRP_Xmittal\2019_Final\Inputs 217,609,479 77 Input files pertaining to 2019 Final\CGV2_3_75_Visualize2045_CLRP_Xmittal\2021_Final\Inputs 217,095,202 77 Input files pertaining to 2021 Final\CGV2_3_75_Visualize2045_CLRP_Xmittal\2025_Final\Inputs 221,063,944 77 Input files pertaining to 2025 Final\CGV2_3_75_Visualize2045_CLRP_Xmittal\2030_Final\Inputs 224,716,317 77 Input files pertaining to 2030 Final\CGV2_3_75_Visualize2045_CLRP_Xmittal\2040_Final\Inputs 226,070,301 77 Input files pertaining to 2040 Final\CGV2_3_75_Visualize2045_CLRP_Xmittal\2045_Final\Inputs 227,224,718 77 Input files pertaining to 2045 Final
Total 1,535,884,339 650
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• Chapter 3: Hardware and software requirements • Chapter 4: Mechanics of the model application process • Chapter 5: Preparing to run the model • Chapter 6: Running the model
The model has been designed to operate with a maximum of 8 cores (in highway assignment process). Chapter 8 of the user’s guide (“Use of parallel processing to reduce model run times”) describes how parallel processing is used in the model. This chapter also includes a table (Table 19, p. 84) showing how to change batch files to run on computers with fewer than 8 cores.
ADDITIONAL MODEL DOCUMENTATION
Additional documentation is included in the “Docums” folder of the transmittal i.e., “CGV2_3_75_Visualize2045_CLRP_Xmittal\Docums”. This folder includes the one data file and several documents:
Data file
• rd91_tpb3722.txt: This file contains the Round 9.1 land activity data referenced in the memo below. This data has not undergone the Census Transportation Planning Products (CTPP)-based employment adjustment, so it is not suitable for use in the travel model, since it represents data that has not been adjusted to have a consistent definition of employment throughout the modeled region.
Documents
• DesJardin, Paul, and Greg Goodwin. Memorandum to Ronald Milone. “Round 9.1 Cooperative Forecast TPB TAZ file.” Memorandum, February 16, 2018. (Round 9_1 transmittal materials.pdf)
• Milone, Ronald. Memorandum to DTP Technical Staff. “Round 9.1-Based Exogenous Demand Inputs to the Travel Model.” Memorandum, March 16, 2018. (V2.3_Exogenous_Inputs_Rnd9.1_3722.pdf)
• Humeida, Hamid. Memorandum to Mark Moran and Ronald Milone. “Developing land use input files for the Version 2.3 Travel Model using Round 9.1 Cooperative Forecasts and the CTPP-based employment adjustment factors.” Memorandum, October 25, 2018. (Devel_Rnd 9.1_lu_v23mod_v12.pdf)
• Moran, Mark S., Mary Martchouk, and Feng Xie. Memorandum. “Utility for Converting Files in DBF Format to text/CSV Format.” Memorandum, December 5, 2011. (dbf_file_converter_2011.pdf)
TABLES
The following attached tables include 1) A listing of batch files, control files, script files, support files, and model input files by year; and 2) A listing of regional control totals generated after a complete execution of the model (using the default 8 cores) by analysis year.
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File List - Subdirectory: \CGV2_3_75_Visualize2045_CLRP_Xmittal
